From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2983 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, October 12 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2983 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 22:43:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C27177.AE3B3D40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable and not the first time, nor will be the last, that IBD attempts to = interpret and redefine what WON "really" meant. Would be interesting to = know just how closely he monitors what his paper says in his name, and = whether they are speaking for him, or for themselves and their = interpretation. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Chris Dempsey=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:40 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Excellent work. I agree with you. =20 - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 6:09 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink =20 Hi jans & Mike, =20 I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my = notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a = case of sloppy editing in the weblink.=20 =20 The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction = after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the = left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as they = implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left side = starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the peak on = 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 =3D 47%, setting up the new correction and = beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at = http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG =20 In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle = and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former = peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual high = point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the start of the = handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There are a couple of = examples to demonstrate that the left side of the base is not always the = old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the = new edition of HTMMIS. =20 Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's simply = a matter of testing whether the handle is valid: =20 1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes 2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes 3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", = though the norm is 10-20%)? yes 4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the = beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle. 5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes 6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes 7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not = exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout day =20 None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to = disagree with the weblink's analysis this time. =20 Katherine =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C27177.AE3B3D40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
and not the first time, nor will be the last, = that IBD=20 attempts to interpret and redefine what WON "really" meant. Would be = interesting=20 to know just how closely he monitors what his paper says in his name, = and=20 whether they are speaking for him, or for themselves and their=20 interpretation.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Chris Dempsey =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:40 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink

Excellent=20 work. I agree with you.

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 = 6:09=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD=20 Weblink

 

Hi = jans &=20 Mike,

 

I've read through=20 the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my notes on C&H = bases,=20 handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a case of sloppy editing = in the=20 weblink.

 

The = left side of=20 a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction after a prior = uptrend of 30%=20 or more. With APPX, that means that the left side of the cup is *not* = the 52 wk=20 high set on 1/4 (22.00) as they implied, but instead, is the high set on = 3/15=20 (19.11). The left side starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 = (12.97)=20 to the peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 =3D 47%, setting up the new = correction=20 and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at http://WallStre= et-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG

 

In = HTMMIS, the=20 wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle and the pivot buy = point=20 is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former peak....and this is almost = always=20 somewhat below the base's actual high point." The key word to me is that = they=20 are identifying the start of the handle in relationship to the *base's* = high=20 point. There are a couple of examples to demonstrate that the left side = of the=20 base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. 159 = or PMCS=20 on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS.

 

Once the left=20 side of the base is properly identified, then it's simply a matter of = testing=20 whether the handle is valid:

 

1. = Did it form=20 within 5-15% of the base high? yes

2. = Did it form in=20 the upper half of the base? yes

3. = Did it droop=20 no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", though the = norm is=20 10-20%)? yes

4. = Did it drift=20 down on light volume? yes--though you could see the beginning of the = breakout in=20 the last day of the handle.

5. = Did it form=20 above the 200 day MA? yes

6. = Was it at=20 least 5 days long? yes

7. = Did volatility=20 in the handle contract? debatable, though not exceedingly zig zaggish = and=20 handles will often have a big shakeout day

 

None of that's to=20 say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to disagree with the = weblink's=20 analysis this time.

 

Katherine

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C27177.AE3B3D40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 21:26:36 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Perhaps the "integrity cops" should monitor their own publications... Kent - --- Tom Worley wrote: > and not the first time, nor will be the last, that IBD attempts to > interpret and redefine what WON "really" meant. Would be interesting > to know just how closely he monitors what his paper says in his name, > and whether they are speaking for him, or for themselves and their > interpretation. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Chris Dempsey > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:40 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > Excellent work. I agree with you. > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 6:09 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > > Hi jans & Mike, > > > > I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my > notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a > case of sloppy editing in the weblink. > > > > The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction > after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the > left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as > they implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left > side starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the > peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 = 47%, setting up the new > correction and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG > > > > In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle > and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former > peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual > high point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the > start of the handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There > are a couple of examples to demonstrate that the left side of the > base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. > 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS. > > > > Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's > simply a matter of testing whether the handle is valid: > > > > 1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes > > 2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes > > 3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", > though the norm is 10-20%)? yes > > 4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the > beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle. > > 5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes > > 6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes > > 7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not > exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout > day > > > > None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to > disagree with the weblink's analysis this time. > > > > Katherine > > > ===== There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those who can count and those who can't. __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More http://faith.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 09:34:00 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink I really wonder sometimes if WON even reads IBD any more - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kent Norman" To: Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 12:26 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Perhaps the "integrity cops" should monitor their own publications... Kent - --- Tom Worley wrote: > and not the first time, nor will be the last, that IBD attempts to > interpret and redefine what WON "really" meant. Would be interesting > to know just how closely he monitors what his paper says in his name, > and whether they are speaking for him, or for themselves and their > interpretation. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Chris Dempsey > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:40 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > Excellent work. I agree with you. > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 6:09 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > > Hi jans & Mike, > > > > I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my > notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a > case of sloppy editing in the weblink. > > > > The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction > after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the > left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as > they implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left > side starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the > peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 = 47%, setting up the new > correction and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG > > > > In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle > and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former > peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual > high point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the > start of the handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There > are a couple of examples to demonstrate that the left side of the > base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. > 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS. > > > > Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's > simply a matter of testing whether the handle is valid: > > > > 1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes > > 2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes > > 3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", > though the norm is 10-20%)? yes > > 4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the > beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle. > > 5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes > > 6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes > > 7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not > exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout > day > > > > None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to > disagree with the weblink's analysis this time. > > > > Katherine > > > ===== There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those who can count and those who can't. __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More http://faith.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:17:46 -0700 From: "inderjit" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Mike: You got a wonderful site with lots of information. I am surprised you are not charging for all this (at least with the links on this list) - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Mike Gibbons Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 2:15 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Hi Jans, The point I was trying to make was not about the level at which the handle forms (5,15 or 31%), but that they used the 52 week high (back in January) as the reference point, rather than the left side of the cup, which was $19.11 on 3/13. However, if they had used the left side of the cup as the reference, then it was only 8% below the left side, well within the normal range and therefore a normal range. This was how my site saw the cwh as of 10/9, the day before the breakout. http://www.cwhcharts.com/charts/cwhchart.php?symbol=APPX&today=2002-10-0 9 Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:21:25 -0700 From: "inderjit" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Do you read IBD? - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 6:34 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink I really wonder sometimes if WON even reads IBD any more - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kent Norman" To: Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 12:26 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Perhaps the "integrity cops" should monitor their own publications... Kent - --- Tom Worley wrote: > and not the first time, nor will be the last, that IBD attempts to > interpret and redefine what WON "really" meant. Would be interesting > to know just how closely he monitors what his paper says in his name, > and whether they are speaking for him, or for themselves and their > interpretation. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Chris Dempsey > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:40 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > Excellent work. I agree with you. > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 6:09 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > > Hi jans & Mike, > > > > I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my > notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a > case of sloppy editing in the weblink. > > > > The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction > after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the > left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as > they implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left > side starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the > peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 = 47%, setting up the new > correction and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG > > > > In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle > and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former > peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual > high point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the > start of the handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There > are a couple of examples to demonstrate that the left side of the > base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. > 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS. > > > > Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's > simply a matter of testing whether the handle is valid: > > > > 1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes > > 2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes > > 3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", > though the norm is 10-20%)? yes > > 4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the > beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle. > > 5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes > > 6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes > > 7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not > exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout > day > > > > None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to > disagree with the weblink's analysis this time. > > > > Katherine > > > ===== There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those who can count and those who can't. __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More http://faith.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:30:05 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink no, haven't for years, mostly due the total lack of time. got tired of them stacking up unread. what I see are the questions posted here by members that do read IBD, and find some of their articles at odds with the teachings of WON. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "inderjit" To: Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 1:21 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Do you read IBD? - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 6:34 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink I really wonder sometimes if WON even reads IBD any more - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kent Norman" To: Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 12:26 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Perhaps the "integrity cops" should monitor their own publications... Kent - --- Tom Worley wrote: > and not the first time, nor will be the last, that IBD attempts to > interpret and redefine what WON "really" meant. Would be interesting > to know just how closely he monitors what his paper says in his name, > and whether they are speaking for him, or for themselves and their > interpretation. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Chris Dempsey > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:40 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > Excellent work. I agree with you. > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 6:09 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > > > Hi jans & Mike, > > > > I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my > notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a > case of sloppy editing in the weblink. > > > > The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction > after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the > left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as > they implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left > side starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the > peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 = 47%, setting up the new > correction and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG > > > > In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle > and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former > peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual > high point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the > start of the handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There > are a couple of examples to demonstrate that the left side of the > base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. > 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS. > > > > Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's > simply a matter of testing whether the handle is valid: > > > > 1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes > > 2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes > > 3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", > though the norm is 10-20%)? yes > > 4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the > beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle. > > 5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes > > 6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes > > 7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not > exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout > day > > > > None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to > disagree with the weblink's analysis this time. > > > > Katherine > > > ===== There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those who can count and those who can't. __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More http://faith.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 12:11:27 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B4_01C271E8.7DC7E980 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C271E8.7DC7E980" - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C271E8.7DC7E980 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable JAPAN This week saw more details finally emerge on the govt thinking of the = steps necessary to clean up their economy. The central Bank of Japan = (BOJ)disclosed its stock buyback plan (buy at market, max of 500 billion = yen per bank, spend two trillion over the next year or so, start as soon = as approved, max of 5% position in any company, won't sell until after = Sept 2007, won't sell at a loss, will complete selling by Sept 2017). Of = course this won't change anything regarding bad loans, which the banks = will now be forced to write down more rapidly. But BOJ also made it = clear that higher standards closer to international accounting must be = used both for credit risk assessment, and for defining what loans are in = default or non-performing. The govt also floated the concept that no = bank, or company, is too big to fail. Initial reaction, of course, was a = further selloff taking the NIKKEI well under 8,500. But it did manage to = recover two thirds of its worst one day loss by the close, and finish = the week with a small gain taking it back over 8,500. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS As most know, consumer spending represents two thirds of the engine that = drives the US economy. Signs lately show weakness, which have already = been reported in a number of weekly sales reports by retailers, = including WalMart and Target. Now, the Federal Reserve reports that = consumer credit grew in August by only $4.2 billion, an annual rate of = 2.9% and slowest growth since December. Expected was an $11.1 billion = boost (consumer debt now totals $1.73 trillion). And remember, this is = the report for August. July's report was also revised down slightly, to = a growth of $10.1 billion and an annual rate of 10%. Noteworthy in the = August report was non-revolving credit (cars, vacations, etc.), which = grew only by $243.4 million, only an 0.3% annual rate and the slowest = since June 1999. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, grew = 6.5%, down from July's 10.6% rate. Other signs such as the Univ. of = Michigan consumer sentiment suggest consumer spending got considerably = worse in September.=20 Wholesale inventories grew a little in August, up 0.2%, after rising = 0.6% in July. Expected was a gain of 0.3%. However, there was a sharp = drop in auto inventories (down 2.3%), fueled by the continued low and = zero percent financing available, which offset rises in inventory = (professional equipment and computers both up 1.3% for example) in most = other sectors. Overall durable goods inventories were up 0.2% after = rising 0.6% in July. Overall sales also appeared strong rising 0.9%, = better than July's 0.7%. However, again car sales distort this number as = they were up 4.1%. This also showed in the sales of durable goods, up = 0.3% after July's 0.1% rise. Further adding to the evidence of weakening consumer spending is = Friday's release of Retail Sales from Commerce, down 1.2% for September = following the revised 0.6% rise in August. Without car sales, it was = actually up 0.1% compared to August's gain of 0.3% (without cars) of = 0.3%.=20 Producer Price Index, both overall and core, rose 0.1% for September = after being flat in August, and down 0.1% for the core (excludes food = and energy). So inflation is still not a concern, but no one seems to be = talking about the risk of deflation despite the PPI being down 1.9% for = the past year, with the core rate down a record 0.4% for the same = period. So producers not only can't raise prices, they are having to cut = them. Isn't that the classic definition of deflation? As mentioned above, the Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment index = dropped sharply in its preliminary report for October, down to 80.4 from = 86.1. Economists had expected a moderate drop only to 85.2. The = expectations component was particularly notable, dropping to 72.4 from = 79.9 in September. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" One immediate threat to economic recovery was reduced with the court = ordered ending of the West Coast port shutdown. Persistent stories = continue that the longshoremen are strictly enforcing safety rules, thus = slowing down the removal of all the backlogged containers. I can only = imagine the chaos they are trying to clear right now, and with 5 dead in = the past six months during container operations, it's hard to really = fault them for this, even if it is being used deliberately as a slowdown = tactic. Estimates range from 3 weeks (port authority) to ten weeks = (various) to clear out the complete backlog and resume normal = operations. Of course, that would just about use up the 80 day cooling = off period as well. And the threat of a pending war with Iraq seems to = have eased slightly as well. This week's rally appears to me to be more = of a bounce from oversold conditions, led by short covering. Volume past = two days doesn't impress me as suggesting the massive amount of = sidelined cash is yet rushing back in. Nor does the trend in RS lines = suggest to me a sustained rally. I also note that NYSE Financials index = fell all the way back, it had been showing more strength the past = months. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is small, and = stable. AG - approaching pivot on a decent c&h, nearly 2X ADV on Friday APOL - LLUR AZO - nice looking c&h, may be nearing a b/o BG - at pivot of a double bottom BUD - interesting chart, possible institutional support at the 50 dma CCE - c&h CECO - LLUR CENT - very nice c&h at new highs COCO - LLUR, Lots of continuous insider selling CPBI - c&h, but too deep ERES - LLUR MBFI - B7 ZMH - B3 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C271E8.7DC7E980 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
JAPAN
This week saw more details finally emerge on the = govt=20 thinking of the steps necessary to clean up their economy. The central = Bank of=20 Japan (BOJ)disclosed its stock buyback plan (buy at market, max of 500 = billion=20 yen per bank, spend two trillion over the next year or so, start as soon = as=20 approved, max of 5% position in any company, won't sell until after Sept = 2007,=20 won't sell at a loss, will complete selling by Sept 2017). Of course = this won't=20 change anything regarding bad loans, which the banks will now be forced = to write=20 down more rapidly. But BOJ also made it clear that higher standards = closer to=20 international accounting must be used both for credit risk assessment, = and for=20 defining what loans are in default or non-performing.  The govt = also=20 floated the concept that no bank, or company, is too big to fail. = Initial=20 reaction, of course, was a further selloff taking the NIKKEI well under = 8,500.=20 But it did manage to recover two thirds of its worst one day loss by the = close,=20 and finish the week with a small gain taking it back over 8,500.
ECONOMICS
As most know, consumer spending represents two = thirds of=20 the engine that drives the US economy. Signs lately show weakness, which = have=20 already been reported in a number of weekly sales reports by retailers,=20 including WalMart and Target. Now, the Federal Reserve reports that = consumer=20 credit grew in August by only $4.2 billion, an annual rate of 2.9% and = slowest=20 growth since December. Expected was an $11.1 billion boost (consumer = debt now=20 totals $1.73 trillion). And remember, this is the report for August. = July's=20 report was also revised down slightly, to a growth of $10.1 billion and = an=20 annual rate of 10%. Noteworthy in the August report was non-revolving = credit=20 (cars, vacations, etc.), which grew only by $243.4 million, only an 0.3% = annual=20 rate and the slowest since June 1999. Revolving credit, which = includes=20 credit cards, grew 6.5%, down from July's 10.6% rate. Other signs such = as the=20 Univ. of  Michigan consumer sentiment suggest consumer spending got = considerably worse in September.
 
Wholesale inventories grew a little in August, = up 0.2%,=20 after rising 0.6% in July. Expected was a gain of 0.3%. However, there = was a=20 sharp drop in auto inventories (down 2.3%), fueled by the continued low = and zero=20 percent financing available, which offset rises in inventory = (professional=20 equipment and computers both up 1.3% for example) in most other sectors. = Overall=20 durable goods inventories were up 0.2% after rising 0.6% in July. = Overall sales=20 also appeared strong rising 0.9%, better than July's 0.7%. However, = again car=20 sales distort this number as they were up 4.1%. This also showed in the = sales of=20 durable goods, up 0.3% after July's 0.1% rise.
 
Further adding to the evidence of weakening = consumer=20 spending is Friday's release of Retail Sales from Commerce, = down 1.2% for=20 September following the revised 0.6% rise in August. Without car sales, = it was=20 actually up 0.1% compared to August's gain of 0.3% (without cars) of = 0.3%.=20
 
Producer Price Index, both overall and core, = rose 0.1% for=20 September after being flat in August, and down 0.1% for the core = (excludes food=20 and energy). So inflation is still not a concern, but no one seems to be = talking=20 about the risk of deflation despite the PPI being down 1.9% for the past = year,=20 with the core rate down a record 0.4% for the same period. So producers = not only=20 can't raise prices, they are having to cut them. Isn't that the classic=20 definition of deflation?
 
As mentioned above, the Univ. of Michigan's = consumer=20 sentiment index dropped sharply in its preliminary report for October, = down to=20 80.4 from 86.1. Economists had expected a moderate drop only to 85.2. = The=20 expectations component was particularly notable, dropping to 72.4 from = 79.9 in=20 September.
"M"
One immediate threat to economic recovery was = reduced with=20 the court ordered ending of the West Coast port shutdown. Persistent = stories=20 continue that the longshoremen are strictly enforcing safety rules, thus = slowing=20 down the removal of all the backlogged containers. I can only imagine = the chaos=20 they are trying to clear right now, and with 5 dead in the past six = months=20 during container operations, it's hard to really fault them for this, = even if it=20 is being used deliberately as a slowdown tactic. Estimates range from 3 = weeks=20 (port authority) to ten weeks (various) to clear out the complete = backlog and=20 resume normal operations. Of course, that would just about use up the 80 = day=20 cooling off period as well. And the threat of a pending war with Iraq = seems to=20 have eased slightly as well. This week's rally appears to me to be more = of a=20 bounce from oversold conditions, led by short covering. Volume past two = days=20 doesn't impress me as suggesting the massive amount of sidelined cash is = yet=20 rushing back in. Nor does the trend in RS lines suggest to me a = sustained rally.=20 I also note that NYSE Financials index fell all the way back, it had = been=20 showing more strength the past months.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 small, and stable.
 
AG - approaching pivot on a decent c&h, = nearly 2X ADV=20 on Friday
APOL - LLUR
AZO - nice looking c&h, may be nearing = a=20 b/o
BG - at pivot of a double bottom
BUD - interesting chart, possible institutional = support at=20 the 50 dma
CCE - c&h
CECO - LLUR
CENT - very nice c&h at new = highs
COCO - LLUR, Lots of continuous insider=20 selling
CPBI - c&h, but too deep
ERES - LLUR
MBFI - B7
ZMH - B3
 
Happy Hunting,
 
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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