From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3006 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, October 26 2002 Volume 02 : Number 3006 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies RE: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies Re: [CANSLIM] JOSB buy point [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 22:04:25 -0500 From: Gene Ricci Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0096_01C27BA9.50A2C810 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageHi Duke, is it possible to repost your Boomer Babies or point me = to the URL? Thanks, Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:16 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies The Boomer Babies concept that that I passed on several weeks ago was = so poorly received by this group that I hesitate to bring it up again! = I'm not hurt, I promise. I've never been known to run with the crowd, = more often than not taking Frost's road less traveled. =20 However, dear friends, I have been doing some analysis on the list = that now contains 84 stocks, and I've discovered and interesting lack = of correlation. Interesting to me, at any rate. I'll explain: The weekend of October 9, I created a Boomer Babies Watch List = portfolio using the closing price on October 8 as the basis for each = stock. As of yesterday's close, this whole group is up about 4.5%, or = over $12,000 if you'd purchased 100 shares of each. No great shakes. =20 I thought it would be interesting to indicate on my spreadsheet the = dates any of the stocks appear on IBD's Screen of the Day. At risk of = eliciting a "duh", the assumption is the SODs more than likely feature = the better performing stocks to watch. At least that's what WON often = suggests. Going back to October 3rd's SOD and working forward, I found: = Out of the 84 stocks on the Boomer Babies list, 38 (45%) have made at = least one SOD appearance since 10/3. (The most is 7 appearances by a = total of five of the stocks.) Sorting the list based on the number of appearances by each stock = revealed stocks that appeared more than five times increased an average = of 5.5%; those appearing one to four times rose less than half that at = an average of 2.3%. As for the five that have appeared seven times, = they're up a little over 8%. But what of the 56 stocks not appearing on a SOD since October 3? = Holy assumption, Batman, they're up an average of 9.3%!! In other = words, none of these stocks appeared in screens ranging from ROE leaders = to Total Composite Ratings. What does all this prove? =20 It tells me the Boomer Babies list is producing the kind of prospects = I'm interested in: Solid companies across a broad range of industries = that stand to profit from the aging and eventual retirement of boomers. = (The "solid" is derived from, I think, the fact that all the candidates = were culled from nine months of New America features. A plus for IBD, = the publication.) However, a) It has prompted me to consider ceasing the downloading = every SOD for future study; b) I intend to follow the progress of each = stock with CANSLIM on my mind, but not obsessively so; c) It has raised = a level in cynicism regarding devotion to analysis of bases, breakouts, = etc. Those narratives are somewhat befuddling and often contradictory = at best). Sorry if that seems blasphemous, but that's my = observation(s). It just seems every time a breakout fails, they can = spot the reason, in hindsight, of course. Same theme, different day. Have a great weekend. Duke =20 PS: It was my intent to post the results of my survey as described = above, citing the specific stocks. But, alas, as some of you know, I = received a certified wrist-spanking from IBD's SS troops after posting a = SOD analysis back in July. Heaven forbid a further possible suspected = violation of IBD's proprietary blah, blah, blah... - ------=_NextPart_000_0096_01C27BA9.50A2C810 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Hi Duke, is it possible to repost your = Boomer=20 Babies or point me to the URL?
 
Thanks,
Gene
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke=20 Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Thursday, October 24, = 2002 11:16=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Boomer = Babies

The Boomer=20 Babies concept that that I passed on several weeks ago was so = poorly=20 received by this group that I hesitate to bring it up again!  I'm = not=20 hurt, I promise.  I've never been known to run with the = crowd, more=20 often than not taking Frost's road less traveled. =20  
 
However, dear = friends, I=20 have been doing some analysis on the list that now contains 84 stocks, = and  I've discovered and interesting lack of = correlation. =20 Interesting to me, at any rate. =20 I'll explain:
 
The weekend = of October 9,=20 I = created a=20 Boomer Babies Watch List portfolio using the closing price=20 on October 8 as the basis for each stock.  As of yesterday's = close,=20 this whole group is up about 4.5%, or over $12,000 if you'd = purchased 100=20 shares of each.  No great shakes.   =
 
I thought it = would be=20 interesting to indicate on my spreadsheet the dates any of the = stocks=20 appear on IBD's Screen of the Day.  At risk of eliciting a = "duh",=20 the assumption is the SODs more than likely feature the = better=20 performing stocks to watch.  At least that's what WON often=20 suggests.  Going back to October 3rd's SOD and working forward, I=20 found: 
 
Out of = the 84 stocks=20 on the Boomer Babies list, 38 (45%) have made at least one = SOD=20 appearance since 10/3.  (The most is 7 appearances by a = total of=20 five of the stocks.)
 
Sorting the = list based on=20 the number of appearances by each stock revealed stocks that = appeared=20 more than five times increased an average of 5.5%; those appearing one = to four=20 times rose less than half that at an average of 2.3%.   As = for the=20 five that have appeared seven times, they're up a little over=20 8%.
 
But what of = the 56 stocks=20 not appearing on a SOD since October 3?  Holy = assumption,=20 Batman, they're up an average of 9.3%!!  In other words, none of = these=20 stocks appeared in screens ranging from ROE leaders to Total Composite = Ratings.
 
What does all = this=20 prove? 
 
It tells me = the Boomer=20 Babies list is producing the kind of prospects I'm interested = in:  Solid=20 companies across a broad range of industries that stand to profit = from=20 the aging and eventual retirement of boomers.  (The "solid" = is=20 derived from, I think, the fact that all the candidates were culled = from nine=20 months of New America features.  A plus for IBD, the=20 publication.)
 
However, a) = It has=20 prompted me to consider ceasing the downloading every SOD for future = study; b)=20 I intend to follow the progress of each stock with CANSLIM on my = mind,=20 but not obsessively so; c) It has raised a level in cynicism = regarding=20 devotion to analysis of bases, breakouts, etc.  Those = narratives=20 are somewhat befuddling and often contradictory at = best). =20 Sorry if that seems blasphemous, but that's my observation(s).  = It just=20 seems every time a breakout fails, they can spot the reason, in = hindsight, of=20 course.  Same theme, different day.
 
Have a great=20 weekend.
 
Duke =20
 
PS: It was my = intent to=20 post the results of my survey as described above, citing the specific=20 stocks.  But, alas, as some of you know, I received a certified=20 wrist-spanking from IBD's SS troops after posting a SOD analysis = back in=20 July.  Heaven forbid a further possible suspected violation of = IBD's=20 proprietary blah, blah, = blah...
 
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0096_01C27BA9.50A2C810-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 08:58:41 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001D_01C27C04.BA2EAE10 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BoomerBabies.zip - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Gene Ricci Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:04 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies Hi Duke, is it possible to repost your Boomer Babies or point me to the URL? Thanks, Gene - ----- Original Message ----- From: Duke Miller To: CANSLIM Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:16 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies The Boomer Babies concept that that I passed on several weeks ago was so poorly received by this group that I hesitate to bring it up again! I'm not hurt, I promise. I've never been known to run with the crowd, more often than not taking Frost's road less traveled. However, dear friends, I have been doing some analysis on the list that now contains 84 stocks, and I've discovered and interesting lack of correlation. Interesting to me, at any rate. I'll explain: The weekend of October 9, I created a Boomer Babies Watch List portfolio using the closing price on October 8 as the basis for each stock. As of yesterday's close, this whole group is up about 4.5%, or over $12,000 if you'd purchased 100 shares of each. No great shakes. I thought it would be interesting to indicate on my spreadsheet the dates any of the stocks appear on IBD's Screen of the Day. At risk of eliciting a "duh", the assumption is the SODs more than likely feature the better performing stocks to watch. At least that's what WON often suggests. Going back to October 3rd's SOD and working forward, I found: Out of the 84 stocks on the Boomer Babies list, 38 (45%) have made at least one SOD appearance since 10/3. (The most is 7 appearances by a total of five of the stocks.) Sorting the list based on the number of appearances by each stock revealed stocks that appeared more than five times increased an average of 5.5%; those appearing one to four times rose less than half that at an average of 2.3%. As for the five that have appeared seven times, they're up a little over 8%. But what of the 56 stocks not appearing on a SOD since October 3? Holy assumption, Batman, they're up an average of 9.3%!! In other words, none of these stocks appeared in screens ranging from ROE leaders to Total Composite Ratings. What does all this prove? It tells me the Boomer Babies list is producing the kind of prospects I'm interested in: Solid companies across a broad range of industries that stand to profit from the aging and eventual retirement of boomers. (The "solid" is derived from, I think, the fact that all the candidates were culled from nine months of New America features. A plus for IBD, the publication.) However, a) It has prompted me to consider ceasing the downloading every SOD for future study; b) I intend to follow the progress of each stock with CANSLIM on my mind, but not obsessively so; c) It has raised a level in cynicism regarding devotion to analysis of bases, breakouts, etc. Those narratives are somewhat befuddling and often contradictory at best). Sorry if that seems blasphemous, but that's my observation(s). It just seems every time a breakout fails, they can spot the reason, in hindsight, of course. Same theme, different day. Have a great weekend. Duke PS: It was my intent to post the results of my survey as described above, citing the specific stocks. But, alas, as some of you know, I received a certified wrist-spanking from IBD's SS troops after posting a SOD analysis back in July. Heaven forbid a further possible suspected violation of IBD's proprietary blah, blah, blah... - ------=_NextPart_000_001D_01C27C04.BA2EAE10 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Gene Ricci
Sent: Thursday, October 24, = 2002=20 11:04 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: = Re:=20 [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies

Hi Duke, is it possible to repost = your Boomer=20 Babies or point me to the URL?
 
Thanks,
Gene
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Thursday, October 24, = 2002 11:16=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Boomer = Babies

The Boomer=20 Babies concept that that I passed on several weeks ago was so = poorly=20 received by this group that I hesitate to bring it up again!  = I'm not=20 hurt, I promise.  I've never been known to run with the = crowd,=20 more often than not taking Frost's road less traveled. =20  
 
However, = dear friends,=20 I have been doing some analysis on the list that now contains 84 = stocks,=20 and  I've discovered and interesting lack of=20 correlation.  Interesting to me, at any rate.  I'll explain:
 
The weekend = of October=20 9, I created a=20 Boomer Babies Watch List portfolio using the closing price=20 on October 8 as the basis for each stock.  As of = yesterday's=20 close, this whole group is up about 4.5%, or over $12,000 if = you'd=20 purchased 100 shares of each.  No great shakes.  =20
 
I thought = it would be=20 interesting to indicate on my spreadsheet the dates any of the = stocks=20 appear on IBD's Screen of the Day.  At risk of eliciting a = "duh",=20 the assumption is the SODs more than likely feature = the better=20 performing stocks to watch.  At least that's what WON = often=20 suggests.  Going back to October 3rd's SOD and working forward, I=20 found: 
 
Out of = the 84=20 stocks on the Boomer Babies list, 38 (45%) have made at = least one=20 SOD appearance since 10/3.  (The most is 7 appearances = by a total=20 of five of the stocks.)
 
Sorting the = list based=20 on the number of appearances by each stock revealed stocks that = appeared more than five times increased an average of 5.5%; those = appearing=20 one to four times rose less than half that at an average of=20 2.3%.   As for the five that have appeared seven times, = they're up=20 a little over 8%.
 
But what of = the 56=20 stocks not appearing on a SOD since October 3?  Holy=20 assumption, Batman, they're up an average of 9.3%!!  In other = words,=20 none of these stocks appeared in screens ranging from ROE leaders to = Total=20 Composite Ratings.
 
What does = all this=20 prove? 
 
It tells me = the Boomer=20 Babies list is producing the kind of prospects I'm interested = in: =20 Solid companies across a broad range of industries that stand = to profit=20 from the aging and eventual retirement of boomers.  (The = "solid"=20 is derived from, I think, the fact that all the candidates were = culled from=20 nine months of New America features.  A plus for IBD, the=20 publication.)
 
However, a) = It has=20 prompted me to consider ceasing the downloading every SOD for future = study;=20 b) I intend to follow the progress of each stock with CANSLIM = on my=20 mind, but not obsessively so; c) It has raised a level in = cynicism=20 regarding devotion to analysis of bases, breakouts, = etc.  Those=20 narratives are somewhat befuddling and often = contradictory at=20 best).  Sorry if that seems blasphemous, but that's my=20 observation(s).  It just seems every time a breakout fails, = they can=20 spot the reason, in hindsight, of course.  Same theme, = different=20 day.
 
Have a = great=20 weekend.
 
Duke =20
 
PS: It was = my intent to=20 post the results of my survey as described above, citing the = specific=20 stocks.  But, alas, as some of you know, I received a certified = wrist-spanking from IBD's SS troops after posting a SOD = analysis back=20 in July.  Heaven forbid a further possible suspected violation = of IBD's=20 proprietary blah, blah, = blah...
 
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_001D_01C27C04.BA2EAE10-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 11:27:20 -0700 From: Harvey Brion Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JOSB buy point Fundies and chart look pretty good. IF the market has bottomed this is probably a good buy at 23. That's still a big IF. Notice the stock sold off with the market in late July and early Oct. Good recent guidance on Q3 and FY earnings. I agree there's no handle but a high handle could be forming now in which case I'm sure we'll see a future IBD reference to this beautiful cup with (slightly high) handle. Hind sight is oh so perfect. James Bond wrote: > I think JOSB is at a good entry point now that it has > cleared the momo crowd (read CANSLIMer's). This was > not a failed breakout because there was no clear pp. > IBD was wrong to say that the pp was 23.18 - the drop > from 23.08 to 15.96 (7.12 or 31%) was too deep for a > handle but too shallow for a double bottom. The entire > base was an inverted H&S formation with a complicated > neckline. This pullback can be viewed as the normal > test of the neckline after a H&S BO. The matching lows > of yesterday and today are bullish in candlestick > terms. So is the doji star candlestick today. > > If you were kicking yourself two days ago for missing > the JOSB BO, now pretend you actually bought it right > at pp of 23.18. What would have you done? You probably > were anguishing over whether to hold on or to cut > losses. Skip the anguish part. Put your stop at a few > cents below 22. That would limit the potential loss at > slightly over 5%. Since violations of matching lows > rarely happen, now your position is safer than it was > a few days ago. OTOH, if the stock drops below 22, I > would seriously consider liquidating all positions and > go completely in cash - it shouldn't happen in a > healthy market, knowing all we know about the > fundamentals of JOSB. > > Won't you say 23 is a great entry point now? > > __________________________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > Y! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your web site > http://webhosting.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 12:56:42 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0061_01C27CEF.21A4ED80 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0062_01C27CEF.21A4ED80" - ------=_NextPart_001_0062_01C27CEF.21A4ED80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS The Conference Board reported that its index of Leading Economic = Indicators fell 0.2% in September, fourth month in a row to decline = (three months in a row is a warning of possible recession). This index = attempts to predict economic activity six months out (thus thru 1st qtr = 2003). Biggest factors were declining stock prices, rising unemployment = claims, and declining orders for capital goods. The coincident index, = which measures current activity, held steady. The only good news was = that the declines originally reported for July and August were cut in = half with revisions. The damage to the economy from the closing of the West Coast ports = continues, although probably at a slower rate. Two weeks after the = courts ordered the ports to reopen, and the Longshoremen to resume = working, there are still over 200 ships at anchor waiting to unload, = just about the same number as when the ports reopened. The Pacific = Maritime Assn is complaining to the courts that the union is conducting = a deliberate slowdown, sending insufficient number of workers, or = untrained workers, or calling in sick. The Union complains that the = docks are chaos because of the lockout, and a dangerous place to work. = Meanwhile, perishable foods are rotting on the docks, retailers worry = about getting products on the shelf in time for Christmas shopping, and = some factories have had to shut down because of a shortage of spare = parts. PMA claims productivity is down 20-25%, labor estimates its only = down by an average of 16%. Mattel is estimated to have $100 million = worth of goods still sitting on the docks or on ships offshore that may = not reach stores in time for the holiday shopping. A week ago, Honda = shut its four N. American assembly plants for two days due lack of = parts. Retail chain store sales rose 1.5% for the first half of October, = compared to the first half of September. Is media data any more accurate or reliable than govt data? You decide. = The ABC News/Money consumer comfort index fell another four points in = the second week of October following a five point drop the first week, = and reaching a level not seen since 1994. This is a telephone poll = survey of about 1,000 adults. The index is now at -23. Over the 877 = weeks of this survey, there have been only 12 occurrences in which it = fell 4 or more points twice in one month. New unemployment claims continue to send confusing signals, down 25K = this latest week, up 25K the week before. The 4 week moving average = remains over 400K at 404K, lowest since August 31. Americans spend about $1.22 for every dollar they earn, while personal = bankruptcy filings have jumped 44% since 1992. Most of the difference is = presumably made up of profits from the stock market or gains in home = equity thru refinancing. Durable goods orders were down a sharp 5.9% in September (keep in mind = this is stale data), biggest decline in 10 months. This is the third = decline in four months (June down 4.5%, July up 8.5%, August down 0.6%). = Most everything was affected, but the biggest were communications = equipment (down 52%) and commercial airplanes (down 46%). The core rate, = excluding transportation related orders, was still down 1%. Even defense = equipment orders fell by 4%. Univ. of Michigan's October consumer sentiment index fell below = expectations, down to 80.6 from 86.1 in September. Expected was a drop = to 81.1. Principal factor was the expectations component, which looks = ahead 12 months, which dropped to 73.1 from 79.9. Current conditions = component fell to a nine year low of 92.4 from 95.8, and gives some = indications of current spending attitudes. Existing home sales rose 1.9% in September from the revised August rate, = and slightly ahead of expectations. New home sales also rose, by 0.4%, = and also ahead of expectations. Year over year, the median prices = remained strong, up 7.9% and 5.9% respectively. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" While the past week managed to make it three in a row of gains, it = appears that the right leg rally of the double bottom's "W" may be = stalling out just over (in most cases) or just under the 50 dma. The = Russell 2000 has not quite broken thru the 50, and the DJ Utilities = Index lags far below it. Volume has been boring, even anemic at times, = much like the economy. The number of new stocks hitting 12 month highs = has been growing, and the Q3 earnings so far does not seem to have been = quite as dismal as many expected. Only time will tell if we are in a = bull rally and soon will return to the bear trend and even lower prices, = or if this double bottom rally is sustainable. I have yet to return to = my normal bullish attitude, altho some of that may just be work related. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN The long awaited, delayed and postponed banking reform plans desperately = needed to rescue the Japanese economy continue to run into the brick = wall of old guard politics, who oppose change and prefer to continue = sliding into the basement one step at a time, romantically hoping / = wishing for world economic recovery to finally take place and drag their = export based economy into the 21st century. Hopes that Takenaka's final = plan will not be so harsh, will protect the biggest banks and = businesses, and will be accompanied by a "safety net" to offset the = effects of even steeper deflation, bankruptcy and higher unemployment, = encouraged the Japanese markets this past week. But that still remains = an illusion, and years of economic pain could still lie ahead no matter = how this pans out. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is slowly growing, = but still not sizable by any stretch of the imagination. ACVA - c&h, kinda AFL - another kinda c&h, steady grower but not spectacular, but I love = the duck AMSG - consolidating ANSI - long saucer with volatile handle, doesn't know where it wants to = go APPX - cup, profit taking? AZO - high handle trying to form CHD - c&h CHS - c&h COCO - LLUR turning into a flat base (B8) DELL - long consolidation DLX - nearly two year LLUR that has now formed decent c&h ESPD - broke the pivot on 3.5X volume Friday, already nearly $2 over the = handle GDW - double bottom HCA - c&h HDI - c&h KSWS - broke pivot on Friday PCLE - nice c&h RKY - c&h Happy Hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0062_01C27CEF.21A4ED80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
ECONOMICS
The Conference Board reported that its index of = Leading=20 Economic Indicators fell 0.2% in September, fourth month in a row to = decline=20 (three months in a row is a warning of possible recession). This index = attempts=20 to predict economic activity six months out (thus thru 1st qtr 2003). = Biggest=20 factors were declining stock prices, rising unemployment claims, and = declining=20 orders for capital goods. The coincident index, which measures current = activity,=20 held steady. The only good news was that the declines originally = reported for=20 July and August were cut in half with revisions.
 
The damage to the economy from the closing of = the West=20 Coast ports continues, although probably at a slower rate. Two weeks = after the=20 courts ordered the ports to reopen, and the Longshoremen to resume = working,=20 there are still over 200 ships at anchor waiting to unload, just about = the same=20 number as when the ports reopened. The Pacific Maritime = Assn is=20 complaining to the courts that the union is conducting a deliberate = slowdown,=20 sending insufficient number of workers, or untrained workers, or calling = in=20 sick. The Union complains that the docks are chaos because of the = lockout, and a=20 dangerous place to work. Meanwhile, perishable foods are rotting on the = docks,=20 retailers worry about getting products on the shelf in time for = Christmas=20 shopping, and some factories have had to shut down because of a shortage = of=20 spare parts. PMA claims productivity is down 20-25%, labor estimates its = only=20 down by an average of 16%. Mattel is estimated to have $100 million = worth of=20 goods still sitting on the docks or on ships offshore that may not reach = stores=20 in time for the holiday shopping. A week ago, Honda shut its four = N.=20 American assembly plants for two days due lack of parts.
 
Retail chain store sales rose 1.5% for the first = half of=20 October, compared to the first half of September.
 
Is media data any more accurate or reliable than = govt=20 data? You decide. The ABC News/Money consumer comfort index fell another = four=20 points in the second week of October following a five point drop the = first week,=20 and reaching a level not seen since 1994. This is a telephone poll = survey of=20 about 1,000 adults. The index is now at -23. Over the 877 weeks of this = survey,=20 there have been only 12 occurrences in which it fell 4 or more points = twice in=20 one month.
 
New unemployment claims continue to send = confusing=20 signals, down 25K this latest week, up 25K the week before. The 4 week = moving=20 average remains over 400K at 404K, lowest since August 31.
 
Americans spend about $1.22 for every dollar = they earn,=20 while personal bankruptcy filings have jumped 44% since 1992. Most of = the=20 difference is presumably made up of profits from the stock market or = gains in=20 home equity thru refinancing.
 
Durable goods orders were down a sharp 5.9% in = September=20 (keep in mind this is stale data), biggest decline in 10 months. This is = the=20 third decline in four months (June down 4.5%, July up 8.5%, August down = 0.6%).=20 Most everything was affected, but the biggest were communications = equipment=20 (down 52%) and commercial airplanes (down 46%). The core rate, excluding = transportation related orders, was still down 1%. Even defense equipment = orders=20 fell by 4%.
 
Univ. of Michigan's October consumer sentiment = index fell=20 below expectations, down to 80.6 from 86.1 in September. Expected was a = drop to=20 81.1. Principal factor was the expectations component, which looks ahead = 12=20 months, which dropped to 73.1 from 79.9. Current conditions component = fell to a=20 nine year low of 92.4 from 95.8, and gives some indications of current = spending=20 attitudes.
 
Existing home sales rose 1.9% in September from = the=20 revised August rate, and slightly ahead of expectations. New home sales = also=20 rose, by 0.4%, and also ahead of expectations. Year over year, the = median prices=20 remained strong, up 7.9% and 5.9% respectively.
"M"
While the past week managed to make it three in = a row of=20 gains, it appears that the right leg rally of the double bottom's "W" = may be=20 stalling out just over (in most cases) or just under the 50 dma. The = Russell=20 2000 has not quite broken thru the 50, and the DJ Utilities Index lags = far below=20 it. Volume has been boring, even anemic at times, much like the economy. = The=20 number of new stocks hitting 12 month highs has been growing, and the Q3 = earnings so far does not seem to have been quite as dismal as many = expected.=20 Only time will tell if we are in a bull rally and soon will return to = the bear=20 trend and even lower prices, or if this double bottom rally is = sustainable. I=20 have yet to return to my normal bullish attitude, altho some of that may = just be=20 work related.
JAPAN
The long awaited, delayed and postponed banking = reform=20 plans desperately needed to rescue the Japanese economy continue to run = into the=20 brick wall of old guard politics, who oppose change and prefer to = continue=20 sliding into the basement one step at a time, romantically hoping / = wishing for=20 world economic recovery to finally take place and drag their export = based=20 economy into the 21st century.  Hopes that Takenaka's final plan = will not=20 be so harsh, will protect the biggest banks and businesses, and will be=20 accompanied by a "safety net" to offset the effects of even steeper = deflation,=20 bankruptcy and higher unemployment, encouraged the Japanese markets this = past=20 week. But that still remains an illusion, and years of economic pain = could still=20 lie ahead no matter how this pans out.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES=20
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 slowly growing, but still not sizable by any stretch of the=20 imagination.
 
ACVA - c&h, kinda
AFL - another kinda c&h, steady grower but = not=20 spectacular, but I love the duck
AMSG - consolidating
ANSI - long saucer with volatile handle, doesn't = know=20 where it wants to go
APPX - cup, profit taking?
AZO - high handle trying to form
CHD - c&h
CHS - c&h
COCO - LLUR turning into a flat base = (B8)
DELL - long consolidation
DLX - nearly two year LLUR that has now formed = decent=20 c&h
ESPD - broke the pivot on 3.5X volume Friday, = already=20 nearly $2 over the handle
GDW - double bottom
HCA - c&h
HDI - c&h
KSWS - broke pivot on Friday
PCLE - nice c&h
RKY - c&h
 
Happy Hunting, and good luck
 
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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