From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3026 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, November 12 2002 Volume 02 : Number 3026 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] screens of the day [CANSLIM] SFCC Re: [CANSLIM] screens of the day Re: [CANSLIM] SFCC [CANSLIM] low vol pull-backs [CANSLIM] watching [CANSLIM] one more Re: [CANSLIM] watching EXPE (was Re: [CANSLIM] one more) [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] FLOAT Re: [CANSLIM] "M" ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 19:08:46 -0600 From: "Norman Boyd" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] screens of the day Dave, Infrequently the emails are a bit late to me also; sometimes half a day. Norm - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave Rogers" To: Sent: Monday, November 11, 2002 7:05 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] screens of the day > Thanks for the kind words, Mike. I seem to be having difficulty getting > emails from the list - nothing since yours and none of the emails I posted. > Can anyone tell me if the emails are just slow or do I have a problem with > my ATT email account? > > Dave > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Monday, November 11, 2002 9:47 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] screens of the day > > > > All, > > > > I think that the work that Dave has done is very nice, and I hope that you > > can all benefit from both of the sheets we have posted here. It has kind > > of inspired me to work some more on mine, so hopefully I will be posting > > some updates soon. > > > > Hope everyone had a nice weekend > > > > Mike > > > > Mike Niemotka , PE > > Sr. Principal Engineer > > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > > Route 120 & Wilson Road > > Round Lake, IL 60073 > > Tel (847) 270-4075 > > Fax (847) 270-4525 > > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 19:30:31 -0800 From: "rchodes" Subject: [CANSLIM] SFCC This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C289B8.CC1F8240 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable For those of you who believe in a low handle breakout, you might want to = take a look at SFCC. This stock was mentioned in IBD over a year ago = when the price increased in a parabolic manner to over $30/share. Since = then, it's corrected strongly, largely due to deceleration in earnings = and revenues per share due to share dilution from secondary offerings = and to the fact that it went up too high too fast. In recent quarters, = fundamentals are picking up again. I'm not sure how to describe the chart except to say that it hit a low = of $7.80 and has basically traded sideways from AUG-late OCT with = resistance at $12. It broke through the $12 mark (low handle breakout) = on Oct 28 on average volume but the volume has exploded since the = company announced stellar results for their 3rd quarter on Nov 6th. = Revenue for the 3rd quarter increased 118% compared to a year ago and = net income per share increased from .17 fully diluted to .30 fully = diluted. From a strict CANSLIM perspective, it's too early to purchase this stock = as it's still building the right side of the cup. But if you believe in = low handle breakouts, the price and volume action is pretty exciting. = It's the only stock that I own that has gone up on high volume over the = last week. Bob Hodes - ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C289B8.CC1F8240 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
For those of you who believe in a low = handle=20 breakout, you might want to take a look at SFCC.  = This=20 stock was mentioned in IBD over a year ago when the price increased in a = parabolic manner to over $30/share.  Since then, it's corrected = strongly,=20 largely due to deceleration in earnings and revenues per share due to = share=20 dilution from secondary offerings and to the fact that it went up too = high too=20 fast.  In recent quarters, fundamentals are picking up = again.
 
I'm not sure how to describe the chart = except to=20 say that it hit a low of $7.80 and has basically traded sideways from = AUG-late=20 OCT with resistance at $12.  It broke through the $12 mark (low = handle=20 breakout) on Oct 28 on average volume but the volume has exploded since = the=20 company announced stellar results for their 3rd quarter on Nov = 6th. =20 Revenue for the 3rd quarter increased 118% compared to a year ago and = net income=20 per share increased from .17 fully diluted to .30 fully = diluted.
 
From a strict CANSLIM perspective, it's = too early=20 to purchase this stock as it's still building the right side of the = cup. =20 But if you believe in low handle breakouts, the price and volume action = is=20 pretty exciting.  It's the only stock that I own that has gone up = on high=20 volume over the last week.
 
 
Bob Hodes
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C289B8.CC1F8240-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 21:53:52 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] screens of the day Dave: Me too. Although, sometimes it's more than "infrequently". jans In a message dated 11/11/2002 8:12:21 PM Eastern Standard Time, theboyd@tisd.net writes: << Dave, Infrequently the emails are a bit late to me also; sometimes half a day. Norm >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 22:05:15 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFCC In a message dated 11/11/2002 8:34:24 PM Eastern Standard Time,=20 rchodes@charter.net writes: << ...you might want to take a look at SFCC. =20 This stock was mentioned in IBD over a year ago when the price increased in=20= a=20 parabolic manner to over $30/share. >> =20 rchodes: Your right. The charts (both weekly and daily look nice-especially the= =20 hi volume surges on up days). And like you, I'd wait (for at least when the= =20 day penetrates- up the 200 MA (and perhaps until the 50 penetrates-up the=20 200). =20 But what appears hinky to me is that the cash-flow is 15=A2 less than 2= 001=20 earnings. jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 21:10:16 -0600 From: "Norman Boyd" Subject: [CANSLIM] low vol pull-backs I'm going thru my watch list tonight checking price vol action. I'm seeing a lot of low-vol pullbacks in some otherwise good stocks. Some of the action could be handles forming, some of it is just LLUR action and some is "something else." Sure looks like a lot of relatively low-risk entry points on some good stocks. This down trend doesn't look like the others from my chair; lot of good issues experiencing low-vol drops, not the fall-thru-the-floor on hi-vol stuff I've been used to lately. Is anyone else seeing this? Norm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 20:13:43 -0800 From: "Robin Gridley" Subject: [CANSLIM] watching Any commments on the following: JNC AIB POSS PRGO LFG Thanks! Robin - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 20:17:17 -0800 From: "Robin Gridley" Subject: [CANSLIM] one more EXPE also... - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2002 06:32:39 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] watching Robin, PRGO shows a chart trend down for the past year, despite over 8% of the shares being bought back by the company. I also don't like the wild swings in revenues and earnings. LFG shows a forecasted 43% decline in earnings for next year, according to DGO. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robin Gridley" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Monday, November 11, 2002 11:13 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] watching Any commments on the following: JNC AIB POSS PRGO LFG Thanks! Robin - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2002 06:47:39 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: EXPE (was Re: [CANSLIM] one more) I was reading an article on Priceline over the weekend, and it was commenting on how differently these two companies have been doing. Appears that there may be a large number of warrants outstanding on Expedia, if so I would recommend researching the terms under which they can be called by the company. It's an easy way for them to raise cash if they need it, or even if they don't. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robin Gridley" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Monday, November 11, 2002 11:17 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] one more EXPE also... - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2002 07:04:40 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" I took some time this morning to look at the major indexes on a weekly chart (I usually just study the dailies). I am growingly concerned about the failure of any of the indexes to measurably surpass the highs set in late August. If they cannot hold the 50 DMA, then we may be looking for new lows before the end of the year. I also cannot recall the last time every index chart looked exactly the same (except for Utilities, Transportation). They are so similar, especially on weekly charts, that I had to keep checking the chart title to be sure I was looking at a different one. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2002 11:15:59 -0600 From: "Don Canfield" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Tom, for some time I've been noticing something similar. I started to notice a possible HSB developing, and then a short time ago, I noticed you mentioned the same thing. Now, in the NAZ, the HSB is almost picture perfect, moving toward the right shoulder. I'm now looking for support at around 1200 in about 2-3 weeks, followed by a break of the neck line about the first of the year. That would look like a pretty neat reversal/bottom. The other indices don't have quite as neat an HSB as NAZ, but it's still there. BTW, I haven't been following volume through these formations as much as I should. Limitations of the current chart viewer I've been using. I just can't get serious about this market, so I just take a peak from time to time. Any thoughts?? Don Canfield - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2002 6:04 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" > I took some time this morning to look at the major indexes on a weekly chart > (I usually just study the dailies). I am growingly concerned about the > failure of any of the indexes to measurably surpass the highs set in late > August. If they cannot hold the 50 DMA, then we may be looking for new lows > before the end of the year. > > I also cannot recall the last time every index chart looked exactly the same > (except for Utilities, Transportation). They are so similar, especially on > weekly charts, that I had to keep checking the chart title to be sure I was > looking at a different one. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@bellsouth.net > AIM: TexWorley > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2002 17:10:58 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FLOAT This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C28A6E.781DA6C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Luis, The percentages are difficult to calculate meaningfully unless somebody = is double checking numbers before reporting. It's entirely possible that when Yahoo/MarketGuide does their = calculations that they are counting all institutions as a percentage of = float whether or not they are insider (5%+ beneficial owners). For = example, look at the MSN ownership summary and you will see that Bain = and Alliance Capital are beneficial owners, but they are *also* = institutions (about 6.7 million shares). That means that if you look at = total percent of the float that is owned by institutions, that = mathematically, it would turn out to be a number greater than 100%. Of = course, that makes no logical sense, because their shares aren't = available to easily change hands in the market unless they first report = to the SEC. (Insider/5% Beneficial owners + Float =3D Outstanding) http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp The other complication to calculating percent of the float or of the = outstanding shares is that institutions only report once a quarter. If = you look at the Yahoo/Marketguide report and the MSN report, you can see = that some of the reports are outdated and that the same reporting is not = showing on both sites. That means that if any shares have changed hands, = the total institutional shares as a percent of the 37.5m shares = outstanding will not add up as they should. http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp http://biz.yahoo.com/hd/s/srcl.html The other possible complication to the calculations is the adjustments = to shares based on secondary offerings and/or splits. If = Yahoo/Marketguide and/or MSN are careless about updates, then you'll see = discrepancies when the shares owned by institutions as a percentage of = outstanding shares are calculated. Now, to make things *really* complicated, when DGO reports their = numbers, they show Management/Insiders as a % of the *outstanding* = shares, then show Mutual Funds and Banks as a % of the *Float*!! It's = crazy and you have to be careful when looking at one data source vs. = another. All in all, I don't see the actual percentage as all that important = unless it is extraordinarily high. I'm far more interested in the = *pattern* of ownership. That is, are more institutions continuing to buy = or to sell their positions? I'm also interested in what the better = quality institutions are doing. If *they* are buying, then that carries = more weight. That said, of all the things that I use to evaluate a = company for purchase, this is quite honestly one of the *least* = important. I think that technical condition and basic fundamentals such = as revenue/earnings growth are far more telling. Institutions leave = their tracks in the price/volume charts, so looking at the detailed = institutional ownership is really a double check more than anything. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: luis claramunt=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 05, 2002 9:27 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] FLOAT Hi, =20 While doing my weekly research I came across in Yahoo Finance with the = profile for SRCL, under Ownership Institutional is appeared 123% of = float. =20 A definition of float is the shares left over for possible purchase = after substracting stock that is closely held (How to make money in = stocks, page 33); my doubt is: who come do they come with this 123%? =20 I need some light on it. =20 Best Regards to all, =20 Luis Claramunt San Jose, Costa Rica mail to: luclaxu@racsa.co.cr - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C28A6E.781DA6C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Luis,
 
The percentages are difficult to calculate meaningfully unless = somebody is=20 double checking numbers before reporting.
 
It's entirely possible that when Yahoo/MarketGuide does their = calculations=20 that they are counting all institutions as a percentage of float whether = or not=20 they are insider (5%+ beneficial owners). For example, look at the MSN = ownership=20 summary and you will see that Bain and Alliance Capital are beneficial = owners,=20 but they are *also* institutions (about 6.7 million shares). That means = that if=20 you look at total percent of the float that is owned by institutions, = that=20 mathematically, it would turn out to be a number greater than 100%. Of = course,=20 that makes no logical sense, because their shares aren't available to = easily=20 change hands in the market unless they first report to the SEC. = (Insider/5%=20 Beneficial owners + Float =3D Outstanding)
 
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp
 
The other complication to calculating percent of the float or of = the=20 outstanding shares is that institutions only report once a quarter. If = you look=20 at the Yahoo/Marketguide report and the MSN report, you can see that = some of the=20 reports are outdated and that the same reporting is not showing on both = sites.=20 That means that if any shares have changed hands, the total = institutional shares=20 as a percent of the 37.5m shares outstanding will not add up as they=20 should.
 
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp
http://biz.yahoo.com/hd/s/sr= cl.html
 
The other possible complication to the calculations is the = adjustments to=20 shares based on secondary offerings and/or splits. If Yahoo/Marketguide = and/or=20 MSN are careless about updates, then you'll see discrepancies when the = shares=20 owned by institutions as a percentage of outstanding shares are=20 calculated.
 
Now, to make things *really* complicated, when DGO reports their = numbers,=20 they show Management/Insiders as a % of the *outstanding* shares, then = show=20 Mutual Funds and Banks as a % of the *Float*!! It's crazy and you have = to be=20 careful when looking at one data source vs. another.
 
All in all, I don't see the actual percentage as all that important = unless=20 it is extraordinarily high. I'm far more interested in the *pattern* of=20 ownership. That is, are more institutions continuing to buy or to sell = their=20 positions? I'm also interested in what the better quality institutions = are=20 doing. If *they* are buying, then that carries more weight. That said, = of all=20 the things that I use to evaluate a company for purchase, this is quite = honestly=20 one of the *least* important. I think that technical condition and basic = fundamentals such as revenue/earnings growth are far more telling. = Institutions=20 leave their tracks in the price/volume charts, so looking at the = detailed=20 institutional ownership is really a double check more than = anything.
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 luis=20 claramunt
Sent: Tuesday, November 05, = 2002 9:27=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] FLOAT

Hi,
 
 =20

While doing my weekly research I came across in = Yahoo=20 Finance with the profile for SRCL, under Ownership Institutional is = appeared=20 123% of float.

 

A definition of float is the shares left = over for=20 possible purchase after substracting stock that is closely held (How = to make=20 money in stocks, page 33); my doubt is: who come  do they come with this=20 123%?

 

I need some light on = it.

 

Best Regards to = all,

 

Luis=20 Claramunt

San Jose, Costa = Rica
mail to: luclaxu@racsa.co.cr
<= /BLOCKQUOTE> - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C28A6E.781DA6C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2002 21:48:51 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Don, I think that sustained heavy volume will be a major clue to what is going on with the institutional money. For now, there appears to me to be uncertainty, with lots of reasons to be fearful. Institutional investors, esp. the mutual funds, have to put the money somewhere. But so far there doesn't seem to be conviction, and they are ready to move the money on a moments notice. And a lot of cash is still sidelined in money markets and bond funds. When that goes back to work in the equity market, it should be obvious after a few days. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Don Canfield" To: Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2002 12:15 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Tom, for some time I've been noticing something similar. I started to notice a possible HSB developing, and then a short time ago, I noticed you mentioned the same thing. Now, in the NAZ, the HSB is almost picture perfect, moving toward the right shoulder. I'm now looking for support at around 1200 in about 2-3 weeks, followed by a break of the neck line about the first of the year. That would look like a pretty neat reversal/bottom. The other indices don't have quite as neat an HSB as NAZ, but it's still there. BTW, I haven't been following volume through these formations as much as I should. Limitations of the current chart viewer I've been using. I just can't get serious about this market, so I just take a peak from time to time. Any thoughts?? Don Canfield - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2002 6:04 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" > I took some time this morning to look at the major indexes on a weekly chart > (I usually just study the dailies). I am growingly concerned about the > failure of any of the indexes to measurably surpass the highs set in late > August. If they cannot hold the 50 DMA, then we may be looking for new lows > before the end of the year. > > I also cannot recall the last time every index chart looked exactly the same > (except for Utilities, Transportation). They are so similar, especially on > weekly charts, that I had to keep checking the chart title to be sure I was > looking at a different one. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@bellsouth.net > AIM: TexWorley > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3026 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.