From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3038 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, November 20 2002 Volume 02 : Number 3038 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] institutional sponsorship RE: [CANSLIM] online brokers Re: [CANSLIM] online brokers Re: [CANSLIM] Market tops Re: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering? RE: Fw: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume [CANSLIM] Data Mining Re: [CANSLIM] Data Mining RE: [CANSLIM] ROOM Re: [CANSLIM] Data Mining [CANSLIM] I Got It Re: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 19 Nov 2002 20:38:23 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] institutional sponsorship This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01A7_01C2900B.9A95BE20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Robin, I think % institutional sponsorship is the great paradox of CANSLIM = investing. On one hand, you *want* good sponsorship, as the CANSLIM = method essentially rides their coattails. On the other, you don't want = an overabundance, as the stock tends to take a dive when the = institutional crowd puts on its herd-mentality-cap. I personally rank % = ownership *way* down in the list when evaluating the stock. If the = fundamentals are sound, the technicals are sound (and it's not a late = stage base), and you can make a good case for the stock's continued = growth earnings/revenues via your due diligence, then I wouldn't kick = out a candidate simply because it's 30% owned. All else being equal = however, % ownership might make a good tie breaker between two good = candidates. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Robin Gridley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Monday, November 18, 2002 11:15 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] institutional sponsorship I'm not sure if this is a fair observation or not... A lot of the stocks that I'm looking into because I like the charts (and have decent fundamentals...) are coming up with institutional ownership well over 30%. Is this a common phenomena (the funds buy the stuff with the good fundamentals just as I'm looking=20 for...) or is this made more of an issue because there are not a whole lot of great choices out there so the institutions are more prevalent in the ones that look favorable.... - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_01A7_01C2900B.9A95BE20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Robin,
 
I think % institutional sponsorship is the great paradox of CANSLIM = investing. On one hand, you *want* good sponsorship, as the CANSLIM = method=20 essentially rides their coattails. On the other, you don't want an=20 overabundance, as the stock tends to take a dive when the institutional = crowd=20 puts on its herd-mentality-cap. I personally rank % ownership *way* down = in the=20 list when evaluating the stock. If the fundamentals are sound, the = technicals=20 are sound (and it's not a late stage base), and you can make a good case = for the=20 stock's continued growth earnings/revenues via your due diligence, then = I=20 wouldn't kick out a candidate simply because it's 30% owned. All else = being=20 equal however, % ownership might make a good tie breaker between two = good=20 candidates.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Robin=20 Gridley
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Monday, November 18, 2002 = 11:15=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = institutional=20 sponsorship

I'm not sure if this is a fair observation or = not...

A=20 lot of the stocks that I'm looking into because
I like the charts = (and have=20 decent fundamentals...)
are coming up with institutional ownership = well=20 over
30%. Is this a common phenomena (the funds buy the
stuff = with the=20 good fundamentals just as I'm looking
for...) or is this made more = of an=20 issue because
there are not a whole lot of great choices out = there
so=20 the institutions are more prevalent in the ones
that look=20 favorable....



-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_01A7_01C2900B.9A95BE20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 19 Nov 2002 20:40:00 -0700 From: "David Taggart" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] online brokers For your question is the additional research worth it I would give it a definite maybe. If you do a lot of discretionary trading then some of the services they give are excellent. Ken Tower has a group of guys that are excellent technical analysts that present many good solid trading ideas. And charting from direct access software tends to be quite good but if you are sticking to strict CANSLIM then none of the additional tools will help you out much and might even affect your judgement. Onbe question that is worth asking yourself is do I NEED realtime quotes? If the answer is yes then get a direct access platform such as Cybertrader or Realtick (what I use). But if you don't need it then stick with a regular online broker. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Robin Gridley Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 4:18 PM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] online brokers I'm looking to (re)open an online trading account. My original account was with eTrade, and I guess I could go back to them. Have also looked at Datek/Ameritrade, as well as Schwab's online service (CyberTrader Pro looks REALLY REALLY cool... but I'm not sure I'm ready for something that requires a 228 page manual....) Is the additional research you can get through Schwab worth it? Any feedback would be appreciated. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 19 Nov 2002 23:01:11 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] online brokers Hi Robin, My accounts are with Schwab, but if you plan to use margin, I would not recommend them. I can't count the number of times their maintenance requirement on a highly liquid stock priced in the high teens or low twenties, and optionable to boot, was 100%. I have complained, and the only time I won, it took me over four months of barraging them with emails, as well as contact from the company I was trying to buy on margin, before they finally were willing to margin it. Their excuses, in my opinion, were pure B.S. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robin Gridley" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 6:18 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] online brokers I'm looking to (re)open an online trading account. My original account was with eTrade, and I guess I could go back to them. Have also looked at Datek/Ameritrade, as well as Schwab's online service (CyberTrader Pro looks REALLY REALLY cool... but I'm not sure I'm ready for something that requires a 228 page manual....) Is the additional research you can get through Schwab worth it? Any feedback would be appreciated. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 19 Nov 2002 23:07:18 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market tops Rolf, I think the better performance lately by Naz is little more than a reflection that it sold off far more than other major indexes. And I also think it still represents collectively the best probability of revenue and earnings growth, new products, entrepreneurial activity, etc. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "rolf hertenstein" To: Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 7:03 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Market tops Went back to WON books today to see if I could understand what the market is telling me since the FTD of 10 October. During October, the DOW, S&P500 and NASD experienced several distribution days. Below is the date and percent drop for each index: DOW S&P NASD 10/22 (1.0) 10/22 (1.1) 10/22 (1.3) 10/24 (2.1) 10/24 (1.5) 10/24 (1.6) 10/28 (0.9) 10/28 (0.8) 10/28 (1.2) 10/31 (0.4) 10/29 (0.9) 10/31 (0.6) According to WON, this would have raised caution flags by the end of October. Until yesterday, only the S&P had another distribution day in November [11/13 with a small (0.1)]. In November, the 3 indices had several accumulation days, especially the NASD with the following gains: DOW: 0.4, 0.1, 0.3, 0.2, 1.7 S&P: 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 2.5 NASD: 2.0, 0.2, 2.3, 2.6, 1.3, 2.3, 0.9 Yesterday the NASD had a distribution day and today both the DOW and S&P did, though with small % loss and not tremendous volume increase. So, I have the following questions: 1. Do the accumulation days in early November negate the October distribution days, i.e., do we start counting distribution days again now? 2. Or are we still under a yellow flag? Asked differently, how often do several distribution days *not* signal a probable xx% M decline? 3. Is the better performance of the NASD (less dis days and more powerful acc days) implying that perhaps folks are still chasing old 90s favorites? And does this tell us anything about the health of this rally? TIA for any thoughts or opinions. I've spent most of my 'stock' time over the past year trying to understand the M. Rolf - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 07:19:01 -0800 (PST) From: Sol Mayer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering? - --0-1135521756-1037805541=:55584 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii I don't know whether BVF is the best example as I think they had some regulatory issues in the interim. But I'm a little biased as I'm stuck in FOX which just announced a secondary and I'm in a little quandry as to what to do. Katherine Malm wrote:Hi Ian, I've read financial studies that conclude that in the near term, a stock will fall on the secondary offering while the market absorbs the additional shares. In the long run, however, the stock performance depends more on the ability of the company to expand their revenue/earnings. In other words, the same thing that creates the underlying value for the shareholders in all cases. If the offering is a primary, where funds actually go to the company, it becomes particularly important, as the investing community looks for evidence that the company has effectively utilized the funds for growth. I can't be of any help on the near-term trading patterns, as I haven't seen any specific studies on the phenomenon. I've uploaded a chart of BVF, which we discussed here on the CANSLIM list last year about the time they announced their secondary offering (approx mid-November). From what I've observed personally, this is a pretty typical chart pattern. See it at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BVF111902.JPG Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:49 AMSubject: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering? i all: I was wondering if anyone had any real experience following stock trading patterns after issuance of a secondary offering? What is the typical pattern after the initial volume surge? Assuming that CANSLIM fundamentals, and quarterly results are strong, will there be a lag before a price move? Is it goof or bad for the near-term price action? Does it matter if the pricing was a little below or above the previous days close? Is there something to watch for on volume? Any input would be appreciated. Than you, Ian - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site - --0-1135521756-1037805541=:55584 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii

I don't know whether BVF is the best example as I think they had some regulatory issues in the interim. But I'm a little biased as I'm stuck in FOX which just announced a secondary and I'm in a little quandry as to what to do.

 Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:

Hi Ian,
 
I've read financial studies that conclude that in the near term, a stock will fall on the secondary offering while the market absorbs the additional shares. In the long run, however, the stock performance depends more on the ability of the company to expand their revenue/earnings. In other words, the same thing that creates the underlying value for the shareholders in all cases. If the offering is a primary, where funds actually go to the company, it becomes particularly important, as the investing community looks for evidence that the company has effectively utilized the funds for growth.
 
I can't be of any help on the near-term trading patterns, as I haven't seen any specific studies on the phenomenon. I've uploaded a chart of BVF, which we discussed here on the CANSLIM list last year about the time they announced their secondary offering (approx mid-November). From what I've observed personally, this is a pretty typical chart pattern. See it at:
 
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:49 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering?

i all:

I was wondering if anyone had any real experience following stock trading
patterns after issuance of a secondary offering? What is the typical pattern
after the initial volume surge? Assuming that CANSLIM fundamentals, and
quarterly results are strong, will there be a lag before a price move? Is it
goof or bad for the near-term price action? Does it matter if the pricing
was a little below or above the previous days close? Is there something to
watch for on volume? Any input would be appreciated.

Than you,

Ian



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-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site - --0-1135521756-1037805541=:55584-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 07:25:24 -0800 (PST) From: Sol Mayer Subject: RE: Fw: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume - --0-589414209-1037805924=:77981 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Mike what sort of alerts does your site offer i.e based upon your criteria or can I input my own criteria etc. You can answer offline about the particulars Mike Gibbons wrote:Bill, Thank you for making that point. The alerts are intended to supplement the watchlist information that we post on the site and certainly should not be used in isolation from the technical analysis we provide, supplemented by the subscriber's own due diligence from other sources. This gives me an opportunity to comment that I was a little disconcerted to see yesterday's alert for MVL posted immediately to this group. Apart from the misuse of proprietary information, which I'll ignore for now because of the publicity it gives the site, the subscrbers to this list did not have the benefit of knowing the context in which the alert was posted. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of btriffet@earthlink.net Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:32 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume Hi Fred, Let me say while the cwhcharts is a great site, it would be a huge disservice to Mike - and now Katherine - to base your buying or selling purely on the basis of alerts. Alerts are a great idea (which I also plan to check out)to suppliment other sources. I would highly recommend following up with your own due diligence of the stocks fundamentals and recent news events. Enjoy, - -Bill Triffet On Mon, 18 Nov 2002 22:43:34 -0600 Fred Winkle wrote: > Down 15 cents at the close but didn't sell > once I learned that I owned > a piece of Spider Man. Hopefully he'll throw > out his web and we'll climb to a > new high tomorrow. > > Fred > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > > href="mailto:winkle@swbell.net">Fred Winkle > > > To: > > href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Sent: Monday, November 18, 2002 1:42 > PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume > > Let's see if I can make it 3 for 3. I just > got an alert from them on MVL > and bought it at $9.20 (it's at $9.24). I'll > look up MVL after I sell it this > afternoon. First time to ever buy a stock > without knowing anything about them > (bad). > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site - --0-589414209-1037805924=:77981 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Mike what sort of alerts does your site offer i.e based upon your criteria or can I input my own criteria etc. You can answer   offline about the particulars

 

 Mike Gibbons <mike@proactech.com> wrote:

Bill,

Thank you for making that point. The alerts are intended to supplement the
watchlist information that we post on the site and certainly should not be
used in isolation from the technical analysis we provide, supplemented by
the subscriber's own due diligence from other sources.

This gives me an opportunity to comment that I was a little disconcerted to
see yesterday's alert for MVL posted immediately to this group. Apart from
the misuse of proprietary information, which I'll ignore for now because of
the publicity it gives the site, the subscrbers to this list did not have
the benefit of knowing the context in which the alert was posted.

Aloha,

Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com


-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
btriffet@earthlink.net
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:32 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume


Hi Fred,

Let me say while the cwhcharts is a great site, it would be a huge
disservice
to Mike - and now Katherine - to base your buying or selling purely on the
basis of alerts.

Alerts are a great idea (which I also plan to check out)to suppliment other
sources. I would highly recommend following up with your own due diligence
of
the stocks fundamentals and recent news events.

Enjoy,

-Bill Triffet

On Mon, 18 Nov 2002 22:43:34 -0600 Fred Winkle wrote:

> Down 15 cents at the close but didn't sell
> once I learned that I owned
> a piece of Spider Man. Hopefully he'll throw
> out his web and we'll climb to a
> new high tomorrow.
>  
> Fred
>  
>  
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From:
> > href="mailto:winkle@swbell.net">Fred Winkle
>
>
> To: >
> href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com
>
> Sent: Monday, November 18, 2002 1:42
> PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume
>
> Let's see if I can make it 3 for 3. I just
> got an alert from them on MVL
> and bought it at $9.20 (it's at $9.24). I'll
> look up MVL after I sell it this
> afternoon. First time to ever buy a stock
> without knowing anything about them
> (bad).
>  


-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.


-
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-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.


Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site - --0-589414209-1037805924=:77981-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 10:53:24 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Data Mining Some comments on data mining from Mark Hulbert. http://makeashorterlink.com/?F22024382 - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 15:06:42 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Data Mining This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C290A6.6F624FC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Great article, Patrick. I can hear my Statistics prof's words ringing in = my ears!! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Patrick Wahl=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, November 20, 2002 11:53 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Data Mining Some comments on data mining from Mark Hulbert. http://makeashorterlink.com/?F22024382 - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C290A6.6F624FC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Great article, Patrick. I can hear my Statistics prof's words = ringing in my=20 ears!!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Patrick = Wahl=20
Sent: Wednesday, November 20, = 2002 11:53=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Data = Mining

Some comments on data mining from Mark = Hulbert.

http://makeashorterlink.c= om/?F22024382


-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C290A6.6F624FC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 15:19:17 -0600 From: "Kelly Short" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ROOM Tom, If I remember correctly you suggested a move in the e-commerce realm a = few weeks ago- would you still advise the same today? Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net] Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 6:07 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM Norm, the internet e-commerce group has been strong lately, hence the = group RS of 93 now. Others in the top six are AMZN, EXPE, UOPX, GYI, & TREE. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Norman Boyd" To: Sent: Monday, November 18, 2002 10:41 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] ROOM Anyone else notice this one did what SYMC did. Specifically, a low vol breakout from a handle. SYMC immediately pulled back on below-avg-vol. Norm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. _________________________________________________________________________= ___ For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 17:59:49 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Data Mining That is actually a pretty interesting subject. I have seen some more extended articles in the past on that subject, from what I remember some of the modifications to the original Dogs of the Dow fell into the Data Mining category. Many pitfalls out there for us investors. On 20 Nov 2002 at 15:06, Katherine Malm wrote: > Great article, Patrick. I can hear my Statistics prof's words ringing in my > ears!! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 17:05:13 -0600 From: Gene Ricci Subject: [CANSLIM] I Got It This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_003D_01C290B6.FDD15FC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I spent most of the day (Monday) talking to several money managers, a = tax specialist and a member of Alliance Capital's research team. It was = a fun day and evening, filled with guarded optimism.... Merrill Lynch = hosted the events..... the guy from Alliance said that we would remember = what he had to say if we remembered 3 words .... I Got It.... his fuel = for the 2003 economy.... I =3D interest rates=20 G =3D government spending O =3D oil prices =20 T =3D tax incentives=20 I =3D low inventories=20 T =3D time to buy equities They all were predicting that the 2003 leaders will be healthcare and = financial services. Gene - ------=_NextPart_000_003D_01C290B6.FDD15FC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I spent most of the day (Monday) = talking to=20 several money managers, a tax specialist and a member of Alliance = Capital's=20 research team. It was a fun day and evening, filled with guarded = optimism....=20 Merrill Lynch hosted the events..... the guy from Alliance said that we = would=20 remember what he had to say if we remembered 3 words .... I Got It.... = his fuel=20 for the 2003 economy....

I =3D interest rates

G =3D = government=20 spending
O =3D oil prices 
T =3D tax incentives

I = =3D low=20 inventories
T =3D time to buy equities

They all were = predicting that=20 the 2003 leaders will be healthcare and financial services.
 
Gene
- ------=_NextPart_000_003D_01C290B6.FDD15FC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 21:45:49 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C290DE.30A38F00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable my general experience is that 90% of stocks will decline in price = between the date where the secondary is announced (or a few days before, = depending on how good their internal secrecy is) and the day that the = deal is priced. Many (most?) are priced at or slightly below the prior = day's closing price. Some will bounce up the day they or priced, or the = day after, but generally getting the offering out of the way is seen as = a positive, so all else being equal the price tends to rise after that. = If the offering was solely and strictly to register already existing = shares (e.g. a secondary) then the offering announcement tends to have = equal negative affect, and completion of the offering tends to have less = positive affect (since the company didn't get any money from it). If it is a primary offering (company selling new shares, so gets the = money from them), then the key for me has always been what they intend = to do with that money. If they are just paying off debt, big whoopee. If = they are using it for growth, acquisition, etc., then that tends to have = a stronger positive affect. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Sol Mayer=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, November 20, 2002 10:19 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary = offering? I don't know whether BVF is the best example as I think they had some = regulatory issues in the interim. But I'm a little biased as I'm stuck = in FOX which just announced a secondary and I'm in a little quandry as = to what to do.=20 Katherine Malm wrote:=20 Hi Ian, I've read financial studies that conclude that in the near term, a = stock will fall on the secondary offering while the market absorbs the = additional shares. In the long run, however, the stock performance = depends more on the ability of the company to expand their = revenue/earnings. In other words, the same thing that creates the = underlying value for the shareholders in all cases. If the offering is a = primary, where funds actually go to the company, it becomes particularly = important, as the investing community looks for evidence that the = company has effectively utilized the funds for growth. I can't be of any help on the near-term trading patterns, as I haven't = seen any specific studies on the phenomenon. I've uploaded a chart of = BVF, which we discussed here on the CANSLIM list last year about the = time they announced their secondary offering (approx mid-November). From = what I've observed personally, this is a pretty typical chart pattern. = See it at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BVF111902.JPG Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:49 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary = offering? i all: I was wondering if anyone had any real experience following stock = trading patterns after issuance of a secondary offering? What is the typical = pattern after the initial volume surge? Assuming that CANSLIM fundamentals, = and quarterly results are strong, will there be a lag before a price = move? Is it goof or bad for the near-term price action? Does it matter if the = pricing was a little below or above the previous days close? Is there = something to watch for on volume? Any input would be appreciated. Than you, Ian - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site - ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C290DE.30A38F00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
my general experience is that 90% of stocks will = decline=20 in price between the date where the secondary is announced (or a few = days=20 before, depending on how good their internal secrecy is) and the day = that the=20 deal is priced. Many (most?) are priced at or slightly below the prior = day's=20 closing price. Some will bounce up the day they or priced, or the day = after, but=20 generally getting the offering out of the way is seen as a positive, so = all else=20 being equal the price tends to rise after that.  If the offering = was solely=20 and strictly to register already existing shares (e.g. a secondary) then = the=20 offering announcement tends to have equal negative affect, and = completion of the=20 offering tends to have less positive affect (since the company didn't = get any=20 money from it).
 
If it is a primary offering (company selling new = shares,=20 so gets the money from them), then the key for me has always been what = they=20 intend to do with that money. If they are just paying off debt, big = whoopee. If=20 they are using it for growth, acquisition, etc., then that tends to have = a=20 stronger positive affect.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Sol = Mayer
Sent: Wednesday, November 20, 2002 10:19 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a = secondary=20 offering?

I don't know whether BVF is the best example as I think they had some = regulatory issues in the interim. But I'm a little biased as I'm stuck = in FOX=20 which just announced a secondary and I'm in a little quandry as to what = to do.=20

 Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> = wrote:=20

Hi Ian,
 
I've read financial studies that conclude that in the near term, = a stock=20 will fall on the secondary offering while the market absorbs the = additional=20 shares. In the long run, however, the stock performance depends=20 more on the ability of the company to expand their = revenue/earnings. In=20 other words, the same thing that creates the underlying value for the=20 shareholders in all cases. If the offering is a primary, where funds = actually=20 go to the company, it becomes particularly important, as the investing = community looks for evidence that the company has effectively utilized = the=20 funds for growth.
 
I can't be of any help on the near-term trading patterns, as I = haven't=20 seen any specific studies on the phenomenon. I've uploaded a chart of = BVF,=20 which we discussed here on the CANSLIM list last year about the time = they=20 announced their secondary offering (approx mid-November). From what = I've=20 observed personally, this is a pretty typical chart pattern. See it = at:
 
http://WallStree= t-LLC.com/canslim/BVF111902.JPG
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, = 2002 9:49=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Any common = trading=20 patterns after a secondary offering?

i all:

I was wondering if anyone had any real=20 experience following stock trading
patterns after issuance of a = secondary=20 offering? What is the typical pattern
after the initial volume = surge?=20 Assuming that CANSLIM fundamentals, and
quarterly results are = strong,=20 will there be a lag before a price move? Is it
goof or bad for = the=20 near-term price action? Does it matter if the pricing
was a = little below=20 or above the previous days close? Is there something to
watch for = on=20 volume? Any input would be appreciated.

Than=20 you,

Ian



-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email = "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.


Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo!=20 Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site - ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C290DE.30A38F00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3038 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.