From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3044 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, November 22 2002 Volume 02 : Number 3044 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] M ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 08:30:46 -0800 (PST) From: Sol Mayer Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - --0-1125638779-1037982646=:51182 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii thanks for the posting and the interesting observation .I always find your comments very thoughtful and sensible. thanks "Edward W. Gjertsen II" wrote: We have found this recent rise to be of great interest. What we found over the prior 34 months that when we bought leaders and were then forced to sell - the next time any opportunities came to buy again was at least 2-4 months later. This last time around – it was 4 weeks. This meant, in our opinion, that sellers were losing control. We are now approximately 30% invested and climbing. During a CANSLIM seminar with WON, one thing has stood out at us. WON mentioned that there are very, very few perfect CANSLIM candidates. We try to use weight of the evidence. This is not a pick and chose rule, but if things are not perfect, what would tip the scales for us to purchase. One big item which I hope starts its own life as a thread is position sizing. We began purchasing ½ positions to place a toe in the water. As stocks came under some pressure, we then added to positions at key technical points. We believe last Friday was a turning point for the markets. On the weekly television/internet show I participate in, I mentioned how well the market reacted to negative news. Intel downgrade, bad economic numbers, etc. The Michigan consumer sentiment provided a boost, but the market did not buckle to all the bad news, very impressive. Our firm held client seminars on September 18 and 21st titled the “End is Near”. This was the first time since Oct ’99 that we have been positive on the market. The name of the seminar was an attention getter, but the message was clear. We believe, as we do today, that there is a cyclical (short-term, 3-6 month) opportunity here to make some money in the market. We are still in a secular bear market until we are proven otherwise. But in the meantime, we are buying. As always, I am very impressed with the depth of knowledge this group brings to the table. As this market heats up, I look forward to reading all your comments. Ed Gjertsen II ed@macktracks.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Ian Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - --0-1125638779-1037982646=:51182 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii

thanks for the posting and the interesting observation .I always find your comments very thoughtful and sensible. thanks

 "Edward W. Gjertsen II" <ed@macktracks.com> wrote:

We have found this recent rise to be of great interest.  What we found over the prior 34 months that when we bought leaders and were then forced to sell - the next time any opportunities came to buy again was at least 2-4 months later.  This last time around – it was 4 weeks.  This meant, in our opinion, that sellers were losing control.  We are now approximately 30% invested and climbing.  During a CANSLIM seminar with WON, one thing has stood out at us.  WON mentioned that there are very, very few perfect CANSLIM candidates.  We try to use weight of the evidence.  This is not a pick and chose rule, but if things are not perfect, what would tip the scales for us to purchase.  One big item which I hope starts its own life as a thread is position sizing.  We began purchasing ½ positions to place a toe in the water.  As stocks came under some pressure, we then added to positions at key technical points.  We believe last Friday was a turning point for the markets.  On the weekly television/internet show I participate in, I mentioned how well the market reacted to negative news.  Intel downgrade, bad economic numbers, etc.  The Michigan consumer sentiment provided a boost, but the market did not buckle to all the bad news, very impressive.  Our firm held client seminars on September 18 and 21st titled the “End is Near”.  This was the first time since Oct ’99 that we have been positive on the market.  The name of the seminar was an attention getter, but the message was clear.  We believe, as we do today, that there is a cyclical (short-term, 3-6 month) opportunity here to make some money in the market.  We are still in a secular bear market until we are proven otherwise.  But in the meantime, we are buying.  As always, I am very impressed with the depth of knowledge this group brings to the table.  As this market heats up, I look forward to reading all your comments.

 

Ed Gjertsen II

ed@macktracks.com

 

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Ian
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M

 

Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?

 

It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.

 

It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.

 

So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?

 

Ian


Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - --0-1125638779-1037982646=:51182-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 11:21:59 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_03EC_01C29219.5F6B4B20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, then, = you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts = before considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still = not clear to me, however, is how you select a stock for consideration as = a CANSLIM stock when making your leader board. If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that have = shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=3D6, AvgVol>=3D30000, = forward growth rate>=3D15--that's just a simple way of identifying = "growth" stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM = fundamental tests and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but = that's a fairly substantial list of stocks acting well in my mind (The = average gain in these stocks off the 10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered = why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks such as INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, = OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, SCSC, or PNRA. That's a = small sampling of stocks with decent (though not perfect) charts off the = list of 263 that are doing well, so not a complete list of "stocks doing = well" in my mind. I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going to = find perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but = certainly if one weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as = this, there's a lot of emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are = subtle, as they are not en masse as with the Fall's homebuilder's move = you mentioned, but in a new Bull market (cyclical though it may be), the = new leaders will emerge one by one from various industries. Only when = and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong group moves and stong = breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I think it's = actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining = strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy = that money is not rushing headlong into former leaders as it did in so = many of the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that = money might be flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON = states that about 14% of "former winners" will actually have what it = takes to make a fresh run in a new Bull market. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Eric Jaenike=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 9:44 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the = indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have = broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.=20 In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those = breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, = tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. = Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, = etc, but don't act as well as the former category.=20 For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of = the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above = its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below = its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, = etc.=20 Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like = UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it = certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the = list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' = lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to = say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, = I don't want to include it.=20 In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, = which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The = point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not = as strong as the move in the indices would indicate.=20 Hope that provides some clarity.=20 Eric=20 =20 Katherine Malm wrote:=20 Hi Eric, A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are = "working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* = been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your = list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the = candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks? Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Eric Jaenike=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:02 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it = appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people = are questioning whether it is real or not says something.=20 Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the = playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market = along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, = I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up = 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long = way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are = now above 50% bulls.=20 I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and = really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS = IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of = course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I = am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with = the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.=20 It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in = this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us = believe.=20 Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, = such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I = consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.=20 As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I = think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to = my longs.=20 Eric=20 kentuna wrote:=20 Katherine, I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly = define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that = is used. Thanks ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Hi Ian, Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to = me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases = in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching = this action from the sideline as well."=20 I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that = money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such = as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than = I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] M Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this = buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling = over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, = propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to = benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the = defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline = as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just = shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? = Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian Eric Jaenike President Vector Investment Management 303-300-2961 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - - Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - ------=_NextPart_000_03EC_01C29219.5F6B4B20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, = then,=20 you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts = before=20 considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still not = clear to me,=20 however, is how you select a stock for consideration as a CANSLIM stock = when=20 making your leader board.
 
If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that = have=20 shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=3D6, = AvgVol>=3D30000,=20 forward growth rate>=3D15--that's just a simple way of identifying = "growth"=20 stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM fundamental = tests=20 and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but that's a fairly = substantial=20 list of stocks acting well in my mind (The average gain in these stocks = off the=20 10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks = such as=20 INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, = SCSC, or=20 PNRA. That's a small sampling of stocks with decent (though not=20 perfect) charts off the list of 263 that are doing well, so not a = complete=20 list of "stocks doing well" in my mind.
 
I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going = to find=20 perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but = certainly if one=20 weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as this, there's a = lot of=20 emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are subtle, as they are not en = masse as=20 with the Fall's homebuilder's move you mentioned, but in a new Bull = market=20 (cyclical though it may be), the new leaders will emerge one by one from = various=20 industries. Only when and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong = group moves=20 and stong breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I = think=20 it's actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining=20 strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy = that=20 money is not rushing headlong into  former leaders as it did in so = many of=20 the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that money = might be=20 flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON states that = about 14% of=20 "former winners" will actually have what it takes to make a fresh run in = a new=20 Bull market.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Eric=20 Jaenike
Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 = 9:44=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M

In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in = the=20 indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that = have broken=20 out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.=20

In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those = breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price = appreciation, tepid=20 pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. = Others will=20 work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but = don't=20 act as well as the former category.=20

For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best = of the=20 best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its=20 breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped = below its=20 pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, = etc.=20

Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like = UNTD,=20 which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it = certainly=20 is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, = because I=20 excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want = to be=20 consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a = playable=20 stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to = include it.=20

In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" = list, which=20 I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point = I was=20 trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong = as the=20 move in the indices would indicate.=20

Hope that provides some clarity.=20

Eric=20

=20

 Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> = wrote:=20

Hi Eric,
 
A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are = "working"=20 that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been = working=20 and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When = you=20 look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you = consider to=20 be CANSLIM stocks?
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Eric=20 Jaenike
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, November = 21, 2002=20 4:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = M

I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make = it=20 appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that = people are=20 questioning whether it is real or not says something.=20

Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the = playground=20 of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along = with it.=20 While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think = a true=20 bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on = the Nas=20 from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way = to go=20 without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now = above=20 50% bulls.=20

I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and = really=20 performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT = PIXR.=20 (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of = course,=20 others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I = am=20 excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast = these with=20 the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, = etc.=20

It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership = in this=20 market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us = believe.=20

Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative = dogs, such=20 as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I = consider that=20 to also be a sign that this run is getting old.=20

As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's = 4Q. I=20 think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close = attention to my=20 longs.=20

Eric=20

 kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:=20

Katherine,
I know this has been discussed = before, but=20 would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What = is the=20 actual criteria that is used.
Thanks
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, = November 21, 2002=20 2:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = M

Hi Ian,
 
Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling = to me=20 that the sectors that stand to benefit the most = from coming=20 increases in government spending - the defense and security = sector -=20 are watching this action from the sideline as well."=20
 
I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed = that money=20 is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues = such as=20 healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more = breakouts than=20 I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks = promising to=20 me.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, = November 21,=20 2002 3:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = M

Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners = emerging=20 from this buying frenzy?
 
It seems to me that several recent = rally=20 leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - = while the=20 indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted=20 isues.
 
It is also baffling to me that the = sectors that=20 stand to benefit the most from coming increases in = government=20 spending - the defense and security sector - are watching = this=20 action from the sideline as well.
 
So am I mising the new leaders of the = bull, or is=20 this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze = heavily=20 shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
 
Ian


Eric Jaenike
President
Vector Investment Management
303-300-2961


Do you Yahoo!?
Yaho= o!=20 Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign= up=20 now


Do you Yahoo!?
Yaho= o! Mail=20 Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign= up=20 now - ------=_NextPart_000_03EC_01C29219.5F6B4B20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 10:35:26 -0800 (PST) From: Eric Jaenike Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - --0-1393317237-1037990126=:91621 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii I don't think I did a good job of explaining myself. I am, in essence, comparing a narrow class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics for this rally with the same class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics from previous rallies/"true" bull runs to gain some insight as to the durability of the rally, and its underlying quality. One characteristic in "X" is that the stock has to be at a new or multiyear high. Now, I am not saying that leadership for a run comes only from stocks at new or multiyear highs. What I am doing is simply looking at stocks that meet that definition, and drawing inferences from the size, concentration, and breadth of that list. Thus, stocks such as EBAY and SFNT are not included in that list. FRX would be. My list of stocks I gave was not meant to be taken as the totality of stocks on that "well" list, just as examples of those stocks. Another characteristic in "X" is that it has to have broken out and run well after the breakout point. Thus, stocks such as MNTR and WFMI are not on my list because they just recently broke out, and have not yet proven that they have run well. Does that mean that they are not potential leaders? No. Does it mean they shouldn't have been purchased on the breakout? Certainly not. Does it mean they don't meet the definitions of "X"? Yes. Finally, the stocks need to have run strongly. Again, all I am doing is looking at the "best of the best", and getting a feel for that group. For example, take BLUD. It broke out of its recent range at around 19. As of close yesterday, it was at 21, for a gain of about 10% in just under 7 weeks. Not bad, but at the same time, the S&P has run about 20%. The situation is similar with IGT. It broke out about 5 weeks ago, has run from 70/71 to about 79. Not bad, but somewhat less impressive when compared to the runs in the indices. So would I consider BLUD and IGT to be great stocks in this run? Tough call. I think it is a little gray. Finally, and this time I mean it, there are lots of other stocks that are forming solid bases, but which have not yet broken out. Those are all potential leaders. However, they received no mention in my email because they didn't meet the definition of "X". I am using this narrow study as one of many things I look at to get a feel for what's happening. A more comprehensive and insightful study would be to expand the definition of "X" to include these other types of stocks. I think that would be of much more value than the restricted definition of "X" that I used. However, that is not what I did. When I look at this run, I see a 7ish week rally that has run 20-30% on the general indices, that has seen a 70% run in the SOX, and a skew in terms of participation that is too heavily weighted towards speculative and beaten down tech relative to new leadership. I see weak participation by retailers (some smaller, niche stocks (TSCO CHS JOSB PETM ROST KSWS CENT SHRP (until recently) AZO CPWM) have done well, but retail is a very large category, and will always have some shops doing well, so I don't consider their moves taken in isolation to be indicative of a strong consumer. WMTs weak same store sales numbers bother me a lot. The consumer has been exploiting cash out refis aggressively as well, which has been boosting retail spending. Ex-refis, I think retail would be materially weaker. I consider this a negative in evaluating the health of this rally. I see weakness in the homebuilders, which I find troubling. I find the recent participation of highly speculative tech stocks disconcerting. I also find the bull/bear %, as well as the 30 day put/call moving average, 30 day ma of a/d on the NYSE, and the NYSE up vol. as a % of total volume indicative of a looming top. (A bit off topic, I know). There are a lot of other things I'm looking at as well that make me uncomfortable with the current rally. So, in sum, when I look at all these things, and look at the current state of leadership considering we've had a substantial run, I lean more towards a cautious stance toward this rally at this point than an aggressive one. Hope that helps. Eric Katherine Malm wrote:Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, then, you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts before considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still not clear to me, however, is how you select a stock for consideration as a CANSLIM stock when making your leader board. If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that have shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=6, AvgVol>=30000, forward growth rate>=15--that's just a simple way of identifying "growth" stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM fundamental tests and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but that's a fairly substantial list of stocks acting well in my mind (The average gain in these stocks off the 10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks such as INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, SCSC, or PNRA. That's a small sampling of stocks with decent (though not perfect) charts off the list of 263 that are doing well, so not a complete list of "stocks doing well" in my mind. I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going to find perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but certainly if one weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as this, there's a lot of emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are subtle, as they are not en masse as with the Fall's homebuilder's move you mentioned, but in a new Bull market (cyclical though it may be), the new leaders will emerge one by one from various industries. Only when and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong group moves and stong breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I think it's actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy that money is not rushing headlong into former leaders as it did in so many of the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that money might be flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON states that about 14% of "former winners" will actually have what it takes to make a fresh run in a new Bull market. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Eric Jaenike To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 9:44 AMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts. In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but don't act as well as the former category. For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, etc. Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to include it. In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong as the move in the indices would indicate. Hope that provides some clarity. Eric Katherine Malm wrote: Hi Eric, A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are "working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks? Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Eric Jaenike To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:02 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something. Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls. I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc. It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe. Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old. As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs. Eric kentuna wrote: Katherine,I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.Thanks----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Hi Ian, Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well." I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] M Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian Eric JaenikePresidentVector Investment Management303-300-2961 - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - --0-1393317237-1037990126=:91621 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii

I don't think I did a good job of explaining myself.

I am, in essence, comparing a narrow class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics for this rally with the same class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics from previous rallies/"true" bull runs to gain some insight as to the durability of the rally, and its underlying quality. One characteristic in "X" is that the stock has to be at a new or multiyear high.

Now, I am not saying that leadership for a run comes only from stocks at new or multiyear highs. What I am doing is simply looking at stocks that meet that definition, and drawing inferences from the size, concentration, and breadth of that list. Thus, stocks such as EBAY and SFNT are not included in that list. FRX would be. My list of stocks I gave was not meant to be taken as the totality of stocks on that "well" list, just as examples of those stocks.

Another characteristic in "X" is that it has to have broken out and run well after the breakout point. Thus, stocks such as MNTR and WFMI are not on my list because they just recently broke out, and have not yet proven that they have run well. Does that mean that they are not potential leaders? No. Does it mean they shouldn't have been purchased on the breakout? Certainly not. Does it mean they don't meet the definitions of "X"? Yes.

Finally, the stocks need to have run strongly. Again, all I am doing is looking at the "best of the best", and getting a feel for that group. For example, take BLUD. It broke out of its recent range at around 19. As of close yesterday, it was at 21, for a gain of about 10% in just under 7 weeks. Not bad, but at the same time, the S&P has run about 20%. The situation is similar with IGT. It broke out about 5 weeks ago, has run from 70/71 to about 79. Not bad, but somewhat less impressive when compared to the runs in the indices. So would I consider BLUD and IGT to be great stocks in this run? Tough call. I think it is a little gray.

Finally, and this time I mean it, there are lots of other stocks that are forming solid bases, but which have not yet broken out. Those are all potential leaders. However, they received no mention in my email because they didn't meet the definition of "X".

I am using this narrow study as one of many things I look at to get a feel for what's happening. A more comprehensive and insightful study would be to expand the definition of "X" to include these other types of stocks. I think that would be of much more value than the restricted definition of "X" that I used. However, that is not what I did.

When I look at this run, I see a 7ish week rally that has run 20-30% on the general indices, that has seen a 70% run in the SOX, and a skew in terms of participation that is too heavily weighted towards speculative and beaten down tech relative to new leadership.

I see weak participation by retailers (some smaller, niche stocks (TSCO CHS JOSB PETM ROST KSWS CENT SHRP (until recently) AZO CPWM) have done well, but retail is a very large category, and will always have some shops doing well, so I don't consider their moves taken in isolation to be indicative of a strong consumer. WMTs weak same store sales numbers bother me a lot. The consumer has been exploiting cash out refis aggressively as well, which has been boosting retail spending. Ex-refis, I think retail would be materially weaker. I consider this a negative in evaluating the health of this rally.

I see weakness in the homebuilders, which I find troubling. I find the recent participation of highly speculative tech stocks disconcerting. I also find the bull/bear %, as well as the 30 day put/call moving average, 30 day ma of a/d on the NYSE, and the NYSE up vol. as a % of total volume indicative of a looming top. (A bit off topic, I know). There are a lot of other things I'm looking at as well that make me uncomfortable with the current rally.

So, in sum, when I look at all these things, and look at the current state of leadership considering we've had a substantial run, I lean more towards a cautious stance toward this rally at this point than an aggressive one.

Hope that helps.

Eric

 

 Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:

Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, then, you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts before considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still not clear to me, however, is how you select a stock for consideration as a CANSLIM stock when making your leader board.
 
If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that have shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=6, AvgVol>=30000, forward growth rate>=15--that's just a simple way of identifying "growth" stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM fundamental tests and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but that's a fairly substantial list of stocks acting well in my mind (The average gain in these stocks off the 10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks such as INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, SCSC, or PNRA. That's a small sampling of stocks with decent (though not perfect) charts off the list of 263 that are doing well, so not a complete list of "stocks doing well" in my mind.
 
I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going to find perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but certainly if one weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as this, there's a lot of emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are subtle, as they are not en masse as with the Fall's homebuilder's move you mentioned, but in a new Bull market (cyclical though it may be), the new leaders will emerge one by one from various industries. Only when and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong group moves and stong breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I think it's actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy that money is not rushing headlong into  former leaders as it did in so many of the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that money might be flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON states that about 14% of "former winners" will actually have what it takes to make a fresh run in a new Bull market.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 9:44 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M

In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.

In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but don't act as well as the former category.

For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, etc.

Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to include it.

In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong as the move in the indices would indicate.

Hope that provides some clarity.

Eric

 Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:

Hi Eric,
 
A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are "working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks?
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M

I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.

Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.

I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.

It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.

Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.

As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.

Eric

 kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:

Katherine,
I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.
Thanks
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M

Hi Ian,
 
Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
 
I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M

Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
 
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
 
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
 
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
 
Ian


Eric Jaenike
President
Vector Investment Management
303-300-2961


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