From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3069 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, December 4 2002 Volume 02 : Number 3069 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails Re: [CANSLIM] GRMN Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 3 Dec 2002 02:35:39 -0800 From: "NANCY POLCARO" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails - ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C29A74.AADA1CE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable could someone give me an easy explanation of a fishtail-I looked at the c= hart on msn and don't see anything. Thanks nancy - ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm Sent: Monday, December 02, 2002 9:33 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails Hi Chris, I never like to see a strong reversal with a tail while in an uptrend, bu= t as with most things, I think context is important. For example, if ARTI= had been in a late stage base and reversed immediately after its breakou= t, I'd be inclined to put a lot of weight on it. On the other hand, ARTI = was breaking free of a downtrend, the market is still tentative, the tail= was followed immediately by a strong up move the next day, and a weekly = chart shows very strong accumulation on the right side of the cup and the= subsequent move up. Other semis like IDCC and CREE have darn near the sa= me pattern and others such as OVTI and SNDK are doing particularly well. = All told, I think the preponderance of evidence would have me treating th= is as a yellow warning flag that a pullback could be in the works, but I = don't see it as a giant "get me outta there red flag" just yet. I've mark= ed both a weekly and daily chart to show what I see in the evidence depar= tment at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/ARTI120202wkly.JPG http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/ARTI120202.JPG Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- =20 From: Chris Dempsey =20 To: Canslim =20 Sent: Wednesday, November 27, 2002 11:37 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails Katherine, you were the first that I can recall that commented on fishtai= ls. =20 Would you please comment on ARTI. Any other comments are welcome also. =20 Chris - ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C29A74.AADA1CE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
could someone give me an easy explanation= of a fishtail-I looked at the chart on msn and don't see anything. = Thanks nancy
 
----- Original Mess= age -----
From: Katherine Malm
Sent: Monday, December 02, 2002 9:33 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails
 
Hi Chris,
 
I never like to see a strong reversal with = a tail while in an uptrend, but as with most things, I think context is i= mportant. For example, if ARTI had been in a late stage base and reversed= immediately after its breakout, I'd be inclined to put a lot of weight o= n it. On the other hand, ARTI was breaking free of a downtrend, the marke= t is still tentative, the tail was followed immediately by a strong up mo= ve the next day, and a weekly chart shows very strong accumulation on the= right side of the cup and the subsequent move up. Other semis like IDCC = and CREE have darn near the same pattern and others such as OVTI and SNDK= are doing particularly well. All told, I think the preponderance of evid= ence would have me treating this as a yellow warning flag that a pullback= could be in the works, but I don't see it as a giant "get me outta there= red flag" just yet. I've marked both a weekly and daily chart to show wh= at I see in the evidence department at:
 
http://WallS= treet-LLC.com/canslim/ARTI120202wkly.JPG
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/can= slim/ARTI120202.JPG
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
Chris Dempsey
To: Canslim
Sent: Wednesday, November 27, 2002 11:37 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails<= /DIV>

Kath= erine, you were the first that I can recall that commented on fishtails.<= ?xml:namespace prefix =3D o ns =3D "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:offi= ce" />

 <= o:p>

Would you ple= ase comment on ARTI. Any other comments are welcome also.

 

Chris

- ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C29A74.AADA1CE0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 4 Dec 2002 07:39:17 -0500 From: "Ann" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GRMN Leaving in the lurch those of us who have to go to work (but can occasionally check stocks and trade on our cell phones!)... Thanks, Tom. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 12:13 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GRMN : Ann, chart reading, spotting classic pivot points and b/o volume is much : more in vogue today than five years ago even. As a result, both retail and : institutional investors today are far more likely to try to rush thru the : same doorway based on the chart alone. I suspect Monday's volume may be a : part of that pattern. Tuesday's selloff, and volume, is more likely : indicative of those day traders who bot along with them on Monday betting on : the retail and institutional investors that would buy for a hold. When it : didn't follow thru on Tuesday, the day traders were out of it immediately. : : ----- Original Message ----- : From: "Ann" : To: : Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 10:30 PM : Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GRMN : : : What's odd, though, is that on Monday it was up 8.4% on volume about 8 times : the average. I figured that that meant that institutions were buying. Could : this be daytraders' work? : Ann : : : ----- Original Message ----- : From: "Curt Corley" : To: : Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 8:32 PM : Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] GRMN : : : : Mike, : : : : I like GRMN's CANSLIM fundamentals for the most part except that the EPS : : growth was negative two quarters in the last four quarters. Sales could : : be a little better too. But when it "pulled back" today, it *really* : : "pulled back." It's down on a 364% volume increase. If you go to : : www.investors.com, you'll see it in the bad half of "Where The Money's : : Flowing Now." That's a good indication that the elephants may be : : dumping this one. That's enough to scare me away from this -- at least : : for the short-term. : : : : Curt : : : : -----Original Message----- : : From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com : : [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of : : michael_niemotka@baxter.com : : Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 11:56 AM : : To: canslim@lists.xmission.com : : Subject: [CANSLIM] GRMN : : : : This is a stock that I had on my watchlist. but was unable to buy into : : yesterday because of lack of capital. I think it broke out of a cup : : with : : no handle with a PP = $24.20. I was hoping that it might pull back a bit : : and give me another chance, and it seems to be doing that today. : : : : But does the fact that it is pulling back on higher than average volume : : raise any fed flags? It is still above the pivot. Does the absolute : : value : : of the volume mean more that the relative volume compared to yesterday's : : breakout? : : : : Thanks : : : : Mike : : : : Mike Niemotka , PE : : Sr. Principal Engineer : : Baxter Healthcare Corporation : : Route 120 & Wilson Road : : Round Lake, IL 60073 : : Tel (847) 270-4075 : : Fax (847) 270-4525 : : michael_niemotka@baxter.com : : : : : : : : - : : -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : : -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : : -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : : : : : : - : : -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : : -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : : -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : : : - : -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : : : : - : -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 4 Dec 2002 08:42:56 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_08CF_01C29B71.24A99B20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Nancy, I"ve written up a brief explanation of "tails" and you can see it at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/Tails.JPG I think the term "fishtail" came from my tendency to describe it as "a = pollywog swimming South" ! There are terms for this in Japanese = Candlesticking, I think they are "hammer" and "shooting star." Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: NANCY POLCARO=20 To: canslim=20 Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 4:35 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails could someone give me an easy explanation of a fishtail-I looked at = the chart on msn and don't see anything. Thanks nancy ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm Sent: Monday, December 02, 2002 9:33 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails Hi Chris, I never like to see a strong reversal with a tail while in an = uptrend, but as with most things, I think context is important. For = example, if ARTI had been in a late stage base and reversed immediately = after its breakout, I'd be inclined to put a lot of weight on it. On the = other hand, ARTI was breaking free of a downtrend, the market is still = tentative, the tail was followed immediately by a strong up move the = next day, and a weekly chart shows very strong accumulation on the right = side of the cup and the subsequent move up. Other semis like IDCC and = CREE have darn near the same pattern and others such as OVTI and SNDK = are doing particularly well. All told, I think the preponderance of = evidence would have me treating this as a yellow warning flag that a = pullback could be in the works, but I don't see it as a giant "get me = outta there red flag" just yet. I've marked both a weekly and daily = chart to show what I see in the evidence department at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/ARTI120202wkly.JPG http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/ARTI120202.JPG Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Chris Dempsey=20 To: Canslim=20 Sent: Wednesday, November 27, 2002 11:37 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ARTI - fishtails Katherine, you were the first that I can recall that commented on = fishtails. =20 Would you please comment on ARTI. Any other comments are welcome = also. =20 Chris - ------=_NextPart_000_08CF_01C29B71.24A99B20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Nancy,
 
I"ve written up a brief = explanation of=20 "tails" and you can see it at:
 
http://WallStreet-LL= C.com/canslim/Tails.JPG
 
I think the term "fishtail" = came from=20 my tendency to describe it as "a pollywog swimming South" ! There are = terms for=20 this in Japanese Candlesticking, I think they are "hammer" and "shooting = star."
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 NANCY = POLCARO=20
To: canslim
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, = 2002 4:35=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI -=20 fishtails

could someone give me an easy explanation of a fishtail-I looked = at the=20 chart on msn and don't see anything.  Thanks nancy
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine Malm
Sent: Monday, December 02, = 2002 9:33=20 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ARTI - = fishtails
 
Hi Chris,
 
I never like to see a strong reversal with a tail = while in an=20 uptrend, but as with most things, I think context is important. For = example,=20 if ARTI had been in a late stage base and reversed immediately after = its=20 breakout, I'd be inclined to put a lot of weight on it. On the other = hand,=20 ARTI was breaking free of a downtrend, the market is still = tentative, the=20 tail was followed immediately by a strong up move the next day, and = a weekly=20 chart shows very strong accumulation on the right side of the cup = and the=20 subsequent move up. Other semis like IDCC and CREE have darn near = the same=20 pattern and others such as OVTI and SNDK are doing particularly = well. All=20 told, I think the preponderance of evidence would have me treating = this as a=20 yellow warning flag that a pullback could be in the works, but I = don't see=20 it as a giant "get me outta there red flag" just yet. I've marked = both a=20 weekly and daily chart to show what I see in the evidence department = at:
 
http://Wall= Street-LLC.com/canslim/ARTI120202wkly.JPG
http://WallStre= et-LLC.com/canslim/ARTI120202.JPG
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Chris = Dempsey
To: Canslim
Sent: Wednesday, November = 27, 2002=20 11:37 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] ARTI -=20 fishtails

Katherine,=20 you were the first that I can recall that commented on=20 fishtails.

 

Would=20 you please comment on ARTI. Any other comments are welcome=20 also.

 

Chris

- ------=_NextPart_000_08CF_01C29B71.24A99B20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 4 Dec 2002 09:10:30 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_08D8_01C29B74.FE3E69D0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Curt, Thanks for the data on SXT and NXTL. I also agree with you about being a = picky investor and choosing only the best. I'd like to take exception, = however, to the idea that all the hurdles WON mentions in HTMMIS must be = met simultaneously in order for a stock to be considered "a good stock." = WON provides guidelines for each of the CANSLIM criteria, but these are = "typical" or "average" values for winning stocks over time. In other = words, you are looking for the greatest representation of strength from = each of these categories, or what I call the "preponderance of evidence" = that the company is a leader, has been able to generate growth in = earnings and revenues, produces excellent profitability for the capital = employed, and has fuel for future growth. Take for example, the tendency = of accounting reporting to lag. By the time it is reported, it's past = history. The price of the stock, on the other hand, is anticipating = future earnings. So, if the technicals show sound accumulation and the = preponderance of evidence of fundamentals and due diligence shows a = pattern of growth and leadership, it's not necessary that each and every = CANSLIM fundamental "typical" recommendation be met. I'm not arguing for NXTL...but I can use it as an example. 12 month EPS = is -2.10, however, this includes a value from 4 quarters ago of -2.25, = a bathtub quarter that included some unusual one time charges that = couldn't be backed out of the pro forma number. More importantly, = however, the most recent 2 quarters have been a positive .35 and .55, = showing 166% and 304% growth in earnings over the same quarter in the = prior year. As a result, the TTM ROE is also going to lag. Now, you have = 3 hurdles being missed simultaneously as a result of one bathtub quarter = (EPS growth, ROE and raw EPS) because each of these accounting measures = is inter-related. It also doesn't recognize the *turnaround* in the = pattern of earnings over the last 2 quarters, something WON has talked = about in the past as an important indicator after a company has gone = through tough times. One last example, i.e., the hurdle for the D/E ratio. While WON suggests = that "lower is better" it is also important to compare the D/E to other = stocks in the same industry. For example, in highly capital intensive = industries it is common to carry a fairly high D/E ratio, as much of the = physical plant and equipment is financed through debt. It is not = uncommon for companies to rejigger their capital structure to take on = more debt when interest rates are low. It's far more important to = determine if their earnings (and/or cash flow) are sufficient to cover = interest payments than it is to judge them on the D/E in and of itself. = There's much more to it than the brief examples I've given here, such as = the stage of the business and the evolution of their D/E during each = phase of maturity, etc., but it does demonstrate one more reason why = writing off a company simply because it's D/E is > 50% (or some other = hurdle) is a dangerous practice. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Curt Corley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 8:57 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT The web-based stock diagnosis service (located on a site that we all know and love and which will remain nameless) gives these two stocks high overall ratings. But I don't agree with the ratings. I have Stock Investor Pro screener, and I set it up to look at all the factors that WON mentions in his most recent edition of HTMMIS. Both SXT and NXTL look extremely disappointing to me. Here's the list of fundamentals that are below standard according to HTTMIS: SXT:=20 (1) Compounded annual EPS growth from continuing operations over the last 3 years is -5.1%. =20 (2) Twelve-month ROE is only 11.3%. =20 (3) Twelve-month Pretax profit margin is only 12.5% (4) Twelve-month After-tax profit margin is down to 8.7% from 9.3% 3 years ago. (5) Long-term Debt/Equity ratio for the most recent quarter is a whopping 103.9! This is an all-time high. (6) 12-month Cash-Flow per share is 1.2% less than 12-month EPS.=20 NXTL: (1) 12-month EPS is -2.10. (2) Compounded annual EPS growth from continuing operations over the last 3 years is -12.6% (-27.9% over the last 5 years) (3) Quarterly Sales is only 14.4% (4) Annual sales growth is decelerating. (5) Pretax profit margin is -18.1% (6) After-tax profit margin is -37.2% (which is not near it's all-time high) (7) High Long-Term Debt/Equity ratio. (8) 12-month Cash-Flow-Per-Share is -110% less than 12-month EPS. I agree with the guidelines and rules set forth by WON, but I treat = the ratings with a grain of salt. According to a popular financial paper (and its associated web site), there will always be 200 stocks out of every 10,000 that are going to look good in each category -- no matter what -- simply because they are in the top 20% of all stocks for that category. In reality, there are currently less than 50 stocks that = meet all of the criteria set forth in HTMMIS. In fact, my pickiest WON = stock screen only came up with 15 stocks. After looking at the charts, the pickings are even slimmer. Now, I'm certainly not saying that there will be only 15 stocks that will give you good returns. And I'm also not saying that you cannot make good money using the unnamed paper and web site for a reference. = I subscribe to that paper myself. I do, however, believe you shouldn't assume a stock in the top 20% has good fundamentals. I also believe = you can pick CANSLIM stocks a lot easier using a good stock screener. =20 Since most of us aren't burdened with the task of finding places to invest millions of dollars, we can afford to be picky and buy only the best. =20 Curt -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Jeff Mulder Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 7:16 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT I'm not interested in SXT. I was responding to a request for = technical and fundamental opinions regarding SXT and NXTL. - Jeff ----- Original Message ----- From: "Norman Boyd" To: Sent: Sunday, December 01, 2002 10:04 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT > Jeff, > > May I ask why you are interested in this stock? From my view point there > are many better looking charts and fundamentals out there than this one. > Just curious. > > Norm > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jeff Mulder" > To: > Sent: Sunday, December 01, 2002 8:39 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT > > > > SXT is in a better buying position now than a week ago. Price has > tightened > > up nicely while clarifying short-term support. However, as Tom pointed > out, > > you probably won't get much juice from this one. > > > > SXT's group looks good. The Media General Industry Average is > consolidating > > at new highs. > > > > - Jeff > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: > > To: > > Sent: Saturday, November 23, 2002 5:14 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT > > > > > > > Looking for a little feed back, but heres my thoughts, thinking about > > buying > > > these two Mon. > > > SXT 84/90 BAA, I like the chart, not too extended at this point. Volume > > has > > > been slightly higher but not real great. Earning are good and = they have > > been > > > buying smaller companies that will provide some synergies. I = know there > > are > > > 47 mil shares outstanding but do not know what the float is, if anyone > has > > a > > > link to where I can find the float on different companies please post, > > > thanks. > > > > > > NXTL 80/99 ADA, chart also looks good, earnings are getting better, and > > the > > > company is doing a good job of paying down dept. > > > > > > Any feed back is appreciated. > > > > > > Thanks Chris > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_08D8_01C29B74.FE3E69D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Curt,
 
Thanks for the data on SXT and NXTL. I also agree with you about = being a=20 picky investor and choosing only the best. I'd like to take exception, = however,=20 to the idea that all the hurdles WON mentions in HTMMIS must be met=20 simultaneously in order for a stock to be considered "a good stock." WON = provides guidelines for each of the CANSLIM criteria, but these are = "typical" or=20 "average" values for winning stocks over time. In other words, you are = looking=20 for the greatest representation of strength from each of these = categories, or=20 what I call the "preponderance of evidence" that the company is a = leader, has=20 been able to generate growth in earnings and revenues, produces = excellent=20 profitability for the capital employed, and has fuel for future growth. = Take for=20 example, the tendency of accounting reporting to lag. By the time it is=20 reported, it's past history. The price of the stock, on the other hand, = is=20 anticipating future earnings. So, if the technicals show sound = accumulation and=20 the preponderance of evidence of fundamentals and due diligence shows a = pattern=20 of growth and leadership, it's not necessary that each and every CANSLIM = fundamental "typical" recommendation be met.
 
I'm not arguing for NXTL...but I can use it as an example. 12 month = EPS is=20 - -2.10, however, this includes a value from 4 quarters ago of  = - -2.25, a=20 bathtub quarter that included some unusual one time charges that = couldn't be=20 backed out of the pro forma number. More importantly, however, the most = recent 2=20 quarters have been a positive .35 and .55, showing 166% and 304%  = growth in=20 earnings over the same quarter in the prior year. As a result, the TTM = ROE is=20 also going to lag. Now, you have 3 hurdles being missed simultaneously = as a=20 result of one bathtub quarter (EPS growth, ROE and raw EPS) because each = of=20 these accounting measures is inter-related. It also doesn't recognize = the=20 *turnaround* in the pattern of earnings over the last 2 quarters, = something WON=20 has talked about in the past as an important indicator after = a company has=20 gone through tough times.
 
One last example, i.e., the hurdle for the D/E ratio. While WON = suggests=20 that "lower is better" it is also important to compare the D/E to other = stocks=20 in the same industry. For example, in highly capital intensive = industries it is=20 common to carry a fairly high D/E ratio, as much of the physical plant = and=20 equipment is financed through debt. It is not uncommon for companies to = rejigger=20 their capital structure to take on more debt when interest rates are = low. It's=20 far more important to determine if their earnings (and/or cash = flow) are=20 sufficient to cover interest payments than it is to judge them on the = D/E in and=20 of itself. There's much more to it than the brief examples I've given = here, such=20 as the stage of the business and the evolution of their D/E during each = phase of=20 maturity, etc., but it does demonstrate one more reason why writing off = a=20 company simply because it's D/E is > 50% (or some other hurdle) is a=20 dangerous practice.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Curt Corley=20
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, = 2002 8:57=20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NXTL, = SXT

The web-based stock diagnosis service (located on a = site that=20 we all
know and love and which will remain nameless) gives these = two=20 stocks
high overall ratings.  But I don't agree with the=20 ratings.

I have Stock Investor Pro screener, and I set it up to = look at=20 all the
factors that WON mentions in his most recent edition of=20 HTMMIS.  Both
SXT and NXTL look extremely disappointing to = me. =20 Here's the list of
fundamentals that are below standard according = to=20 HTTMIS:

SXT:
(1) Compounded annual EPS growth from = continuing=20 operations over the
last 3 years is -5.1%. 
(2) = Twelve-month ROE=20 is only 11.3%. 
(3) Twelve-month Pretax profit margin is only = 12.5%
(4) Twelve-month After-tax profit margin is down to 8.7% from = 9.3%=20 3
years ago.
(5) Long-term Debt/Equity ratio for the most recent = quarter=20 is a
whopping 103.9!  This is an all-time high.
(6) = 12-month=20 Cash-Flow per share is 1.2% less than 12-month EPS. =

NXTL:
(1)=20 12-month EPS is -2.10.
(2) Compounded annual EPS growth from = continuing=20 operations over the
last 3 years is -12.6% (-27.9% over the last 5=20 years)
(3) Quarterly Sales is only 14.4%
(4) Annual sales growth = is=20 decelerating.
(5) Pretax profit margin is -18.1%
(6) After-tax = profit=20 margin is -37.2% (which is not near it's all-time
high)
(7) High = Long-Term Debt/Equity ratio.
(8) 12-month Cash-Flow-Per-Share is = - -110% less=20 than 12-month EPS.

I agree with the guidelines and rules set = forth by=20 WON, but I treat the
ratings with a grain of salt.  According = to a=20 popular financial paper
(and its associated web site), there will = always be=20 200 stocks out of
every 10,000 that are going to look good in each = category=20 -- no matter
what -- simply because they are in the top 20% of all = stocks=20 for that
category.  In reality, there are currently less than = 50=20 stocks that meet
all of the criteria set forth in HTMMIS.  In = fact, my=20 pickiest WON stock
screen only came up with 15 stocks.  After = looking=20 at the charts, the
pickings are even slimmer.

Now, I'm = certainly not=20 saying that there will be only 15 stocks that
will give you good=20 returns.  And I'm also not saying that you cannot
make good = money=20 using the unnamed paper and web site for a reference.  = I
subscribe to=20 that paper myself.  I do, however, believe you = shouldn't
assume a=20 stock in the top 20% has good fundamentals.  I also believe = you
can=20 pick CANSLIM stocks a lot easier using a good stock screener. =20

Since most of us aren't burdened with the task of finding = places=20 to
invest millions of dollars, we can afford to be picky and buy = only=20 the
best.
 
Curt

-----Original = Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Jeff Mulder
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 7:16 = PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT

I'm not interested in SXT.  I was=20 responding to a request for technical
and
fundamental opinions = regarding=20 SXT and NXTL.

- Jeff

----- Original Message = - -----
From:=20 "Norman Boyd" <theboyd@tisd.net>
To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Sunday, December 01, 2002 10:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL,=20 SXT


> Jeff,
>
> May I ask why you are = interested in=20 this stock?  From my view point
there
> are many better = looking=20 charts and fundamentals out there than this
one.
> Just=20 curious.
>
> Norm
>
> ----- Original Message=20 -----
> From: "Jeff Mulder" <jeff@mulder.com>
> To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 Sent: Sunday, December 01, 2002 8:39 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = NXTL,=20 SXT
>
>
> > SXT is in a better buying position = now than a=20 week ago.  Price has
> tightened
> > up nicely = while=20 clarifying short-term support.  However, as = Tom
pointed
>=20 out,
> > you probably won't get much juice from this = one.
>=20 >
> > SXT's group looks good.  The Media General = Industry=20 Average is
> consolidating
> > at new highs.
>=20 >
> > - Jeff
> >
> > ----- Original = Message=20 -----
> > From: <Vanchee1@aol.com>
> > = To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 > Sent: Saturday, November 23, 2002 5:14 PM
> > Subject: = [CANSLIM]=20 NXTL, SXT
> >
> >
> > > Looking for a = little=20 feed back, but heres my thoughts, thinking
about
> >=20 buying
> > > these two Mon.
> > > SXT 84/90 = BAA, I=20 like the chart, not too extended at this point.
Volume
> > = has
> > > been slightly higher but not real great. Earning = are=20 good and they
have
> > been
> > > buying = smaller=20 companies that will provide some synergies. I know
there
> = >=20 are
> > > 47 mil shares outstanding but do not know what = the float=20 is, if
anyone
> has
> > a
> > > link to = where I=20 can find the float on different companies please
post,
> > = >=20 thanks.
> > >
> > > NXTL 80/99 ADA, chart also = looks=20 good, earnings are getting
better,
and
> > the
> = >=20 > company is doing a good job of paying down dept.
> >=20 >
> > > Any feed back is appreciated.
> > = >
>=20 > > Thanks Chris
> > >
> > > -
> = > >=20 -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ; >=20 > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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> = >=20 >
> >
> >
> >
> > -
> = > -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ; >=20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> > = - -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
> >
>=20 >
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, = email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ; -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your = email.
>


-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.


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