From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3096 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, December 21 2002 Volume 02 : Number 3096 In this issue: Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview RE: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] TTEK Re: [CANSLIM] TTEK Re: [CANSLIM] TTEK Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview [CANSLIM] Where's the Santa Claus rally? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2002 14:54:26 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Katherine: With the mkt. being as it is-as you point out-I agree: I wouldn't buy CEDC now. As you observe: Most current BO's are failing nowadays. However (I'm looking at DGO), the funds (I'm assuming that they are the institutions that matter. If others also are relevant, why do you think that?) aren't declining (Dec '01: 6; Mar '02: 9; June '02: 8; Sep '02: 9). On the daily, I see the wedging handle (however, I don't think that I agree with you that CEDC has failed yet-although, as I mentioned, due to the mkt., I wouldn't buy it now (as for selling it-I don't know if I'd do it now. I'd probably wait to see how it closes [vis a vis its range] on this high ADV day. The reason why I've put this stock on my Watchlist: The weekly has a very nice C&H. There indeed was a BO on the weekly earlier this week, and it admittedly is now below the BO point; however, I'd see how CEDC functions now. For instance, I'd see how the stock acts relative to its right lip top (which I put at 17.67). Also, I like the slope of its relative strength line; and 3-4 weeks ago the up 50 penetrated above the up 200. Also, fundamentally, debt is only 16% of equity, and mgt. owns 44% of the company!. Once funds recognize its chart for what it is (strong, in my opinion) I believe they will start loading up on it (they now own only 5%). And once that happens, with CEDC's relatively low PE (19) and its projected earnings, I believe CEDC will rise quickly. jans In a message dated 12/19/2002 9:16:21 AM Eastern Standard Time, kmalm@earthlink.net writes: << The real problem is that I can't find another decent chart in CEDC's industry (all RS's in the 60's or lower and while some are struggling with a flat line, there aren't any other stocks even attempting a breakout). Add that to a net decline in institutional ownership, a sloppy (slightly wedging) handle and a poor showing after an attempted breakout and I'd mark this one off as "high risk," particularly given current market conditions. Even the few breakouts that are working are struggling to stay afoot. Maybe CEDC will pause here and consolidate, as it appears to be the leader in the group, but I'd be surprised to see it move up with any conviction right away. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2002 15:42:32 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Hi jans, Though the stock reversed shortly after the breakout, I did not state that it had failed, only that it had reversed after the breakout (a reversal tail on 12/18). It is still holding above the pivot and I think it would be constructive to see it pause here and consolidate given that reversal, especially if it did so on low volume. It could very well pull back far enough that it forms a fresh handle, however. There's just no way to know. There are only 3.2m shares in the float, so I think it's going to be tough for any of the major institutions to put on positions of size without secondaries or insider selling. You are right that I misstated the trend in ownership and thanks for catching that. I was looking at the shares sold on the MSN site instead of the net shares for the quarter---that's a whopping +77,000 shares net increase in institutional ownership for the quarter! I agree that CEDC has much going for it fundamentally and for that reason probably warrants a spot on a watchlist. While it is essentially a defensive stock, it does have many growth characteristics worth noting. Either way, my radar says "caution" on this one as the shake out in the handle was a little iffy, there was not a strong push after the breakout and the rest of this defensive industry is not particularly healthy. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com Sent: Thursday, December 19, 2002 1:54 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Katherine: With the mkt. being as it is-as you point out-I agree: I wouldn't buy CEDC now. As you observe: Most current BO's are failing nowadays. However (I'm looking at DGO), the funds (I'm assuming that they are the institutions that matter. If others also are relevant, why do you think that?) aren't declining (Dec '01: 6; Mar '02: 9; June '02: 8; Sep '02: 9). On the daily, I see the wedging handle (however, I don't think that I agree with you that CEDC has failed yet-although, as I mentioned, due to the mkt., I wouldn't buy it now (as for selling it-I don't know if I'd do it now. I'd probably wait to see how it closes [vis a vis its range] on this high ADV day. The reason why I've put this stock on my Watchlist: The weekly has a very nice C&H. There indeed was a BO on the weekly earlier this week, and it admittedly is now below the BO point; however, I'd see how CEDC functions now. For instance, I'd see how the stock acts relative to its right lip top (which I put at 17.67). Also, I like the slope of its relative strength line; and 3-4 weeks ago the up 50 penetrated above the up 200. Also, fundamentally, debt is only 16% of equity, and mgt. owns 44% of the company!. Once funds recognize its chart for what it is (strong, in my opinion) I believe they will start loading up on it (they now own only 5%). And once that happens, with CEDC's relatively low PE (19) and its projected earnings, I believe CEDC will rise quickly. jans In a message dated 12/19/2002 9:16:21 AM Eastern Standard Time, kmalm@earthlink.net writes: << The real problem is that I can't find another decent chart in CEDC's industry (all RS's in the 60's or lower and while some are struggling with a flat line, there aren't any other stocks even attempting a breakout). Add that to a net decline in institutional ownership, a sloppy (slightly wedging) handle and a poor showing after an attempted breakout and I'd mark this one off as "high risk," particularly given current market conditions. Even the few breakouts that are working are struggling to stay afoot. Maybe CEDC will pause here and consolidate, as it appears to be the leader in the group, but I'd be surprised to see it move up with any conviction right away. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2002 13:51:42 -0800 From: Richard Yoder Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTEK I'm pretty new and uneducated at this, but is this a CwH, pivot either $14.30 (July) or 15.26 (June)??? Dick - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2002 14:57:31 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTEK I don't think you have a cup and handle on your hands there. Price should be going up before correcting, while TTEK is just coming back up out of a pretty severe drop. Some people would consider the period from September to early Nov. as a cup, and that little dip could be a handle, but I always think that's stretching the definition of a C& H pretty far. On 19 Dec 2002 at 13:51, Richard Yoder wrote: > I'm pretty new and uneducated at this, but is this a CwH, pivot either > $14.30 (July) or 15.26 (June)??? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 02:06:02 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTEK Technically, I think you could mark the left rim of a cup on 7/17/02, however looking at the weekly charts I am more caught by the staircase stepping down pattern which has gone on for well over a year. The more aggressive buyer might have jumped in when it moved thru the resistance around 9.50 on its way back up on volume. However, the chart at present looks to me merely like a reversal (which may prove temporary) of the staircase pattern down. Personally, I would wait for it to break thru the resistance of a well established base previously set around 15. Fundamentally however, I would not put this one on a watch list. The last three quarters all showed declining earnings on a year over year basis, and two of those three quarters showed the same on sales (the third and most recent was flat). It won't be until the March quarter next year that it will have an easy comparison. I also note its EPS ranking is only 43, even tho it is in a group now ranked pretty high. Combine that with an RS of 72 even after nearly doubling in two months, and its fundies would keep it off my list for now. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Patrick Wahl" To: Sent: Thursday, December 19, 2002 4:57 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTEK I don't think you have a cup and handle on your hands there. Price should be going up before correcting, while TTEK is just coming back up out of a pretty severe drop. Some people would consider the period from September to early Nov. as a cup, and that little dip could be a handle, but I always think that's stretching the definition of a C& H pretty far. On 19 Dec 2002 at 13:51, Richard Yoder wrote: > I'm pretty new and uneducated at this, but is this a CwH, pivot either > $14.30 (July) or 15.26 (June)??? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 02:10:54 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview jans, I wouldn't put much weight in the low trailing PE, its 5 year range is 4 to 29, it doesn't have a history of trading at much of a premium to the market, and is close to the high of that range now. - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, December 19, 2002 2:54 PM Subject: Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Katherine: With the mkt. being as it is-as you point out-I agree: I wouldn't buy CEDC now. As you observe: Most current BO's are failing nowadays. However (I'm looking at DGO), the funds (I'm assuming that they are the institutions that matter. If others also are relevant, why do you think that?) aren't declining (Dec '01: 6; Mar '02: 9; June '02: 8; Sep '02: 9). On the daily, I see the wedging handle (however, I don't think that I agree with you that CEDC has failed yet-although, as I mentioned, due to the mkt., I wouldn't buy it now (as for selling it-I don't know if I'd do it now. I'd probably wait to see how it closes [vis a vis its range] on this high ADV day. The reason why I've put this stock on my Watchlist: The weekly has a very nice C&H. There indeed was a BO on the weekly earlier this week, and it admittedly is now below the BO point; however, I'd see how CEDC functions now. For instance, I'd see how the stock acts relative to its right lip top (which I put at 17.67). Also, I like the slope of its relative strength line; and 3-4 weeks ago the up 50 penetrated above the up 200. Also, fundamentally, debt is only 16% of equity, and mgt. owns 44% of the company!. Once funds recognize its chart for what it is (strong, in my opinion) I believe they will start loading up on it (they now own only 5%). And once that happens, with CEDC's relatively low PE (19) and its projected earnings, I believe CEDC will rise quickly. jans In a message dated 12/19/2002 9:16:21 AM Eastern Standard Time, kmalm@earthlink.net writes: << The real problem is that I can't find another decent chart in CEDC's industry (all RS's in the 60's or lower and while some are struggling with a flat line, there aren't any other stocks even attempting a breakout). Add that to a net decline in institutional ownership, a sloppy (slightly wedging) handle and a poor showing after an attempted breakout and I'd mark this one off as "high risk," particularly given current market conditions. Even the few breakouts that are working are struggling to stay afoot. Maybe CEDC will pause here and consolidate, as it appears to be the leader in the group, but I'd be surprised to see it move up with any conviction right away. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2002 06:49:55 -0600 From: "Fred Richards" Subject: [CANSLIM] Where's the Santa Claus rally? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C2A8BD.2BF5A780 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Has the Santa Claus rally fizzled? While the indices were in positive territory on Friday in higher volume, the number of "A" rated stocks in the IBD Acc/Dis ratings continued to decline? The rally on Friday may have been due more to short covering, triple option expiration factors and reaction to the resignation of Senator Lott than a belief that the economy is getting better! We have posted the updated Acc/Dis charts and they are available at: http://www.adrich.com/SI/Info/A's.htm Hope that you have a great Holiday Season! - ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - ---- Fred Richards Corruptisima republica plurimae leges. [The more corrupt a republic, the more laws.] - - Tacitus, Annuals III 27 www.adrich.com - ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C2A8BD.2BF5A780 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Has = the Santa Claus=20 rally fizzled?
 
While = the indices=20 were in positive territory on Friday in higher volume, the number of "A" = rated=20 stocks in the IBD Acc/Dis ratings continued to = decline?
 
The = rally on Friday=20 may have been due more to short covering, triple option expiration = factors and=20 reaction to the resignation of Senator Lott than a belief that the = economy is=20 getting better!
 
We = have posted the=20 updated Acc/Dis charts and they are available at:
 
http://www.adrich.com/SI/I= nfo/A's.htm
 
Hope = that you have a=20 great Holiday Season!
 
 
Fred Richards
 
Corruptisima republica plurimae = leges.  [The=20 more corrupt a republic, the more laws.]  - - Tacitus, Annuals III=20 27
 
www.adrich.com
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C2A8BD.2BF5A780-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3096 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.