From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3105 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, December 28 2002 Volume 02 : Number 3105 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Big Money AGAIN, oh dear! Hay look Andy! [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2002 06:13:20 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big Money AGAIN, oh dear! Hay look Andy! This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C2AE38.383A1F50 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Cindy, Welcome to the group, and CANSLIM. This is a good place to learn and ask = questions, although it is pretty quiet right now. This is also a good = time to paper trade, whether you are just starting out, or are a more = experienced investor, as "M" continues to say stay in cash. I use http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/stockresearch/screener for my = initial screening. It's free, it's simple, both suit me. My best advice = in setting up a screen is keep it simple, and set the parameters outside = your comfort zone. Don't try to zoom directly into the list of perfect = stocks that suit you, that virtually eliminates the human element, as = well as eliminating a stock that may just miss one criteria, but be = screaming a buy on all others. There are many other sites that also have = free screening, this just happens to be one I am familiar with and have = been using for several years. Good luck, - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: c bourgeois=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, December 28, 2002 5:54 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big Money AGAIN, oh dear! Hay look Andy! JC,=20 I was delighted to read your post this morning. As a new subscriber = to IBD and CANSLIM (have received my paper for a week now), I was = looking for a way to put all this information together and develop a = list of candidates. I had already decided to use a screener and have = been fiddling with MultexInvestor - free at www.multexinvestor.com - = before investing in a pricier system. I plan to paper trade my picks to = gain knowledge and confidence that I am recognizing pivot points. I = would be interested to hear recommendations for free screeners that may = be superior to the one I use and also which parameters to select for = screening that follow the CANSLIM criteria. I am also interested in = hearing pros and cons of using the IBD premium tools vs.other available = screening software. Anyone care to comment?=20 Cindy B.=20 John Calkins wrote:=20 Hi Andy, Katherine, Mike or maybe anyone who sees things this way. I don't know if you have seen some of my original posts where I = demonstrated how I mined the paper (IBD)physically for data. I did this = because first I was a beginner and wanted to have firmly established = something in my mind that I could hang my hat on. The sorting of my = database worked similar to yours,Andy and Katherine's although on a much = simpler scale because mine was a sort of a sort (sort of speek..ha!). = This worked for me for about 4 years until I ran out of time and = patients with the paper. Also, as you say, I knew there were better = ways to get the data, technology has made it possible to have a high = speed internet for quick downloads, a laptop to take the offline data = with me and an established backbone to keep from straying too far off = what I have learned. At first I was like a kid in a candy store and = couldn't make up my mind, but the more I follow a plan, the better I = feel about it. Your's, Andy, and Katherine's was probably the best advice for me to = use the paper as a follow up. I now have the tools to look for a = screener (a wireless laptop and highspeed internet). I understand what = you and Katherine have done with the Excel sheets for doing the sorting = of the data, now I just need to try a site as you say. My only problem = here is that I would like to try a couple of free sites like MSN to at = least get the terminology down so I don't get too confused right off. I = read through Your and Katherine's sheets and see how you sift through = your picks. I'm confidant I can follow your guide. I guess I am kind of hung up on this one very important caractristic = of CANSLIM that I just cannot seem to get past. VOLUME. As I looked at = the paper, all my data started with high volume first as to try to = follow the right side of the cup up to its pivot point. This seemed to = eliminate the unnessary screening when I was using the manual data entry = method. I have brought this up repeatidly in this forum. IBD and WON = make such a big deal about volume. I notice how quiet the general media = is about it. It's like I have the key to one of the Myst Worlds or = something. I know that V for VOLUME is not one of the CANSLIM accronymns, but I = believe it is in the "I" for institutional sponcership. If you don't = have ABOVE AVERAGE VOLUME in the right side of the cup, then from what I = have read, you don't have a Full CANSLIM canidate. I see from your sheet, you show average volume such as Katherine does. = You have a scoring system on your personal cryteria. I'm guessing that = Katherine sticks with her forward growth > 15%, Price > $6, Average = Daily Volume > 30, RS >60, < 15% Below 50 day MA, > (above) 200 day MA. = Then does she manually look at each and every stock on a chart to see if = it has a proper base? Is this what you do too? You don't have as many = stocks in your list, and I haven't tried to examine their charts to see = if you picked these because of their=20 bases. OR NOW, because of my tools, do I just enter as close to my prefered = CANSLIM cyteria into the screener that I feel the most comfortable with = and end up with a few hundred stocks and simply bring up each and every = chart and build some sort of chart scoring system that I can sort to = give me my list. I understand when building a database that you need to start with the = final product and work backwards. So in this case (and what I did with = the paper) is to get my list down to a managable size of stocks that = were close to their piviots to send myself cell phone alerts and emails = to get my attention so I can do my day job. I understand that I could just simply take out a subscription to a = service that does most of this for me such as what Mike and Katherine = have but the reason I got involved in CANSLIM in the first place was = because I had someone else doing most of it for me. I might have stayed = with them but not understanding how everything worked made me feel like = something was wrong with the method. So before I can feel confident in = using a service that takes most of the work out of this method, I need = to prove to myself what I'm looking at. After I see that this is indeed = the method that I want, and I know that to be a fact, to build on the = confidence to replicate the data as close as possible to end up with = similar results is my goal as is everyone else's. In screening for volume, do you recommed that I fiddle around with one = of the free sites or do you have a site you know of that might help me = with this. Am I beating a dead horse with this, do you get the same = results when you screen, somehow, for stocks <=3D 15% of 52 week high = and then just flip through the charts like grease lightning! If I could = just mind meld with a few of you for a few hours, I won't have to = reinvent the wheel again or rewrite "The Universe in a Nutshell"! Thanks any input. JC =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: AJAskey@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, November 17, 2002 11:56 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stock chart In a message dated 11/17/2002 12:10:16 PM Central Standard Time, = jcalkins@olypen.com writes: Now let me get this straight. This group is studying WON's concept = of CANSLIM. Granted, it doesn't mean you need to take a subscription to = his paper to follow his teaching, BUT! How do you find the quality = stocks that the big money is moving into? I use IBD's Where The Big = Money's Flowing to get started with my lists. This follows everything = that WON teaches. If you do not get the paper, then how do you find = those same stocks? JC, Almost everything that IBD provides can be calculated and screened = thru subscriptions to other data services such as AAII Stock Investor = Pro and TC2000. These relatively inexpensive services did not exist = when IBD was created but are popping up regularly since the internet has = made it into everyones home. I am hoping that IBD recognizes this and = somehow provides more data or it will eventually go out of business. = DGO provides services to screen stocks but they are extremely overpriced = and under featured based on what is available for free of fee elsewhere. I subscribe to IBD because I like the articles and the constant = reminders of CANSLIM rules, but not because I cannot find stocks that = have the best IBD rankings without IBD. In fact, using only IBD EPS = ranking stocks of 80 or better will keep one out of some of the future = best performing stocks. (See a recent "Ask Bill" question as IBD states = this.) By using a tool that screens the fundamentals instead of the = rankings, one will find the best stocks that may miss some arbitrary cut = off by a statistically anomally. By this I mean it makes more sense to = screen for companies meeting CANSLIM criteria than to look at a subset = of stocks that a good growers to determine if they meet CANSLIM = criteria. Stocks that meet CANSLIM criteria will magically have good = IBD rankings. If I wanted I could buy one IBD every week or two for = verification of my data. To try to duplicate the actual IBD rankings requires some = programming knowledge and therefore everyone cannot do it. I do it as I = don't want to tie my future to a paper that may go out of business at = some point. But my point is that IBD does not do anything mystical to = generate this information and the rankings are not the most important = thing needed to find quality growers. The data behind the rankings is = more important and the data is not available from IBD. Andy=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now - ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C2AE38.383A1F50 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Cindy,
 
Welcome to the group, and CANSLIM. This is a = good place to=20 learn and ask questions, although it is pretty quiet right now. This is = also a=20 good time to paper trade, whether you are just starting out, or are a = more=20 experienced investor, as "M" continues to say stay in cash.
 
I use http://c= bs.marketwatch.com/tools/stockresearch/screener for=20 my initial screening. It's free, it's simple, both suit me. My best = advice in=20 setting up a screen is keep it simple, and set the parameters outside = your=20 comfort zone. Don't try to zoom directly into the list of perfect stocks = that=20 suit you, that virtually eliminates the human element, as well as = eliminating a=20 stock that may just miss one criteria, but be screaming a buy on all = others.=20 There are many other sites that also have free screening, this just = happens to=20 be one I am familiar with and have been using for several = years.
 
Good luck,
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: c=20 bourgeois
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Saturday, December 28, 2002 5:54 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big Money AGAIN, oh dear! Hay look=20 Andy!

JC,=20

  I was delighted to read your post this morning.  As a new = subscriber to IBD and CANSLIM (have received my paper for a week = now), I=20 was looking for a way to put all this information together and develop a = list of=20 candidates.  I had already decided to use a screener and have been = fiddling=20 with MultexInvestor - free at www.multexinvestor.com - = before=20 investing in a pricier system.  I plan to paper trade my picks to = gain=20 knowledge and confidence that I am recognizing pivot points.  I = would be=20 interested to hear recommendations for free screeners that may be = superior to=20 the one I use and also which parameters to select for screening that = follow the=20 CANSLIM criteria.  I am also interested in hearing pros and cons of = using=20 the IBD premium tools vs.other available screening software.  = Anyone care=20 to comment?=20

Cindy B.=20

 John Calkins <jcalkins@olypen.com> wrote:=20

Hi Andy, Katherine, Mike or maybe = anyone who sees=20 things this way.
 
I don't know if you have seen some of = my original=20 posts where I demonstrated how I mined the paper (IBD)physically for=20 data.  I did this because first I was a beginner and wanted to = have=20 firmly established something in my mind that I could hang my hat = on.  The=20 sorting of my database worked similar to yours,Andy and Katherine's = although=20 on a much simpler scale because mine was a sort of a sort (sort of=20 speek..ha!).  This worked for me for about 4 years until I = ran out=20 of time and patients with the paper.  Also, as you say, I knew = there were=20 better ways to get the data, technology has made it possible to have a = high=20 speed internet for quick downloads, a laptop to take the offline data = with me=20 and an established backbone to keep from straying too far off what I = have=20 learned.  At first I was like a kid in a candy store and couldn't = make up=20 my mind, but the more I follow a plan, the better I feel about=20 it.
 
Your's, Andy, and Katherine's = was probably=20 the best advice for me to use the paper as a follow up.  I now = have the=20 tools to look for a screener (a wireless laptop and highspeed = internet). =20 I understand what you and Katherine have done with the Excel sheets = for doing=20 the sorting of the data, now I just need to try a site as you say. My = only=20 problem here is that I would like to try a couple of free sites like = MSN to at=20 least get the terminology down so I don't get too confused right = off.  I=20 read through Your and Katherine's sheets and see how you sift through = your=20 picks. I'm confidant I can follow your guide.
 
I guess I am kind of hung up = on this one=20 very important caractristic of CANSLIM that I just cannot seem to = get=20 past.  VOLUME.  As I looked at the paper,  all=20 my data started with high volume first as to try to follow = the right=20 side of the cup up to its pivot point.  This seemed to eliminate = the=20 unnessary screening when I was using the manual data entry = method.  I=20 have brought this up repeatidly in this forum.  IBD and WON = make=20 such a big deal about volume. I notice how quiet the = general=20 media is about it.  It's like I have the key to one of the Myst = Worlds or=20 something.
 
I know that V for VOLUME is not one = of the=20 CANSLIM accronymns, but I believe it is in the "I" for institutional=20 sponcership.  If you don't have ABOVE AVERAGE VOLUME in the right = side of=20 the cup, then from what I have read, you don't have a Full CANSLIM=20 canidate.
 
I see from your sheet, you show = average volume=20 such as Katherine does.  You have a scoring system on your = personal=20 cryteria.  I'm guessing that Katherine sticks with her forward = growth=20 > 15%, Price > $6, Average Daily Volume > 30, RS >60, < = 15%=20 Below 50 day MA, > (above) 200 day MA.  Then does she manually = look at=20 each and every stock on a chart to see if it has a proper base?  = Is this=20 what you do too?  You don't have as many stocks in your list, and = I=20 haven't tried to examine their charts to see if you picked these = because of=20 their
bases.
 
OR NOW, because of my tools,  do = I just=20 enter as close to my prefered CANSLIM cyteria into the screener that I = feel=20 the most comfortable with and end up with a few hundred stocks and = simply=20 bring up each and every chart and build some sort of chart scoring = system that=20 I can sort to give me my list.
 
I understand when building a database = that you=20 need to start with the final product and work backwards.  So in = this case=20 (and what I did with the paper) is to get my list down to a = managable=20 size of stocks that were close to their piviots to send myself cell = phone=20 alerts and emails  to get my attention so I can do my day=20 job.
 
I understand that I could just = simply take=20 out a subscription to a service that does most of this for me such as = what=20 Mike and Katherine have but the reason I got involved in CANSLIM in = the first=20 place was because I had someone else doing most of it for me.  I = might=20 have stayed with them but not understanding how everything worked made = me feel=20 like something was wrong with the method.  So before I can feel = confident=20 in using a service that takes most of the work out of this method, I = need to=20 prove to myself what I'm looking at.  After I see that this is = indeed the=20 method that I want, and I know that to be a fact, to build on the = confidence=20 to replicate the data as close as possible to end up with similar = results is=20 my goal as is everyone else's.
 
In screening for volume, do you = recommed that I=20 fiddle around with one of the free sites or do you have a site you = know of=20 that might help me with this.  Am I beating a dead horse with = this, do=20 you get the same results when you screen, somehow, for stocks <=3D = 15% of 52=20 week high and then just flip through the charts like grease = lightning! =20 If I could just mind meld with a few of you for a few hours, I won't = have to=20 reinvent the wheel again or rewrite "The Universe in a = Nutshell"!
 
Thanks any input.
 
JC
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 AJAskey@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Sunday, November 17, = 2002 11:56=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stock=20 chart

In a = message dated=20 11/17/2002 12:10:16 PM Central Standard Time, jcalkins@olypen.com=20 writes:


Now let me get this straight. This group is studying = WON's=20 concept of CANSLIM.  Granted, it doesn't mean you need to = take a=20 subscription to his paper to follow his teaching, BUT!  How = do you=20 find the quality stocks that the big money is moving into?  I = use=20 IBD's Where The Big Money's Flowing to get started with my = lists. =20 This follows everything that WON teaches.  If you do not get = the=20 paper, then how do you find those same stocks?


JC,

Almost everything that IBD = provides can be=20 calculated and screened thru subscriptions to other data services = such as=20 AAII Stock Investor Pro and TC2000.  These relatively = inexpensive=20 services did not exist when IBD was created but are popping up = regularly=20 since the internet has made it into everyones home.  I am = hoping that=20 IBD recognizes this and somehow provides more data or it will = eventually go=20 out of business.  DGO provides services to screen stocks but = they are=20 extremely overpriced and under featured based on what is available = for free=20 of fee elsewhere.

I subscribe to IBD because I like the = articles and=20 the constant reminders of CANSLIM rules, but not because I cannot = find=20 stocks that have the best IBD rankings without IBD.  In fact, = using=20 only IBD EPS ranking stocks of 80 or better will keep one out of = some of the=20 future best performing stocks.  (See a recent "Ask Bill" = question as=20 IBD states this.)  By using a tool that screens the = fundamentals=20 instead of the rankings, one will find the best stocks that may miss = some=20 arbitrary cut off by a statistically anomally.  By this I mean = it makes=20 more sense to screen for companies meeting CANSLIM criteria than to = look at=20 a subset of stocks that a good growers to determine if they meet = CANSLIM=20 criteria.  Stocks that meet CANSLIM criteria will magically = have good=20 IBD rankings.  If I wanted I could buy one IBD every week or = two for=20 verification of my data.

To try to duplicate the actual IBD = rankings=20 requires some programming knowledge and therefore everyone cannot do = it.  I do it as I don't want to tie my future to a paper that = may go=20 out of business at some point.  But my point is that IBD does = not do=20 anything mystical to generate this information and the rankings are = not the=20 most important thing needed to find quality growers.  The data = behind=20 the rankings is more important and the data is not available from=20 IBD.

Andy


Do you Yahoo!?
Yaho= o! Mail=20 Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign= up=20 now - ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C2AE38.383A1F50-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2002 08:55:47 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0090_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0091_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10" - ------=_NextPart_001_0091_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Consumer spending increased 0.5% in November while income increased = 0.3%. both were a tenth better than expected. Univ. of Michigan's final report on consumer sentiment for December = shows a gain to 86.7 over November's 84.2 and in line with expectations. = Current conditions, and expectations, components also showed gains in = line with expectations. Durable goods orders for November fell sharply, down 1.4%, almost = completely wiping out the sharp gain of 1.7% in October. Of more concern = to me is that the drop was pretty much across all sectors. Worse still, = expectations were for a gain of about 0.8%. Does this mean the October = report was flawed, and November's report simply caught up the error? = Non-defense capital goods, which is often a measure of corporate capital = spending still long awaited, fell 2.2% excluding aircraft against a rise = in October of 5.9%. The only sector to post a gain was computers / = electronic products, up 0.3% on top of the 3.5% of the prior month. = However, computers by themselves fell 3.7%, while communications = equipment rose 1.4%. Deflation remains alive and well in Japan, where the November CPI = dropped another 0.8% year over year, the 38th consecutive month of = declines. And expectations were for a slightly greater decline. Average = spending was down 3.4% year over year, guess they should really = appreciate all the US consumers that keep on spending more than they are = making, and keeping the Japanese export based economy at least on life = support.=20 In another throwback to uncertainty and unpredictability, the new claims = figure for initial unemployment claims came in below expectations, down = 60,000 instead of the expected 20K or so, taking it well under 400K once = again. But the 4 week average crept up 2,500 to 404.5K, staying over = 400K for the second week. At least one Labor Dept analyst was honest = enough to admit that the seasonal "adjustments" this time of year can = cause the reported numbers to "swing widely".=20 New home sales were up again, this time a 5.7% increase in November, a = new monthly record, and offsetting the 4% drop in October. Forecast had = been for a decline . As usual, low mortgage rates were credited. Average = price was $218,900, up 5.8% year over year, but down 2.9% from October. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" (as in Merry Christmas) Well, for sure Santa failed to show up for the party. There's no doubt = now that 2002 will mark the third consecutive year for down markets, = first time since 1941. Hummm, 1941, wasn't that the year that we started = Pearl Harbor Day, and the War To End All Wars?? Guess we didn't quite = get it right, kept practicing in Korea (haven't I been seeing them in = the news a lot lately), Vietnam, Mid East (wait a minute, aren't we = getting ready to start another war over there?), Bosnia, parts of the = former Soviet Union, various South American countries (if you count = massively armed guerrilla groups moonlighting with some drug smuggling). = Then there's the price of energy, crude up about 50% for the year, but = hey, any day now we will whip the socks off the Iraqis, take over their = country, and pump all their oil out to the world at giveaway prices. And = Venezuela will elect a new leader any day, and be back to full = production the next day. And, of course, that's all corporate America = needs to jump start all their companies, double production, hire a = qizillion new workers to staff the double shifts they will be running, = and unemployment will plunge to a record zero percent. And, of course, = earnings will soar even before sales begin to pick up. Then again, what = if? What if 2002 is not the end of it, and the markets are down again in = 2003?? Now that hasn't happened since the 1929-1932 era. Didn't our = parents (or for you kids out there, grandparents) call that The Great = Depression?? Like, what was so great about it, couldn't have been the = soup lines in the freezing cold, I don't believe any soup could taste = that good. Maybe it was the sense of community, as everyone struggled = with record unemployment, and the collapse of many banks and other = financial institutions, along with the loss of people's life savings. = Hummm, sounds a little like Japan today (or maybe Enron). Nah, couldn't = happen again, could it? Don't we learn from our mistakes? Like Korea, = Vietnam, Desert Storm? Pearl Harbor? September 11th? The Great = Depression? Desert Storm Revisited? Enron? Worldcom? Global Crossing? While I can hope for a lot of things from the new year, that's only = wishful thinking. While the market pundits sit and tell us what can't = happen next year, or what will, only time will actually reveal to us = just what is going on. I can't tell the market what it SHOULD do, but = the market can and will tell me what it IS doing, right then, right now, = if I am only patient and listen. That is the only pure truth that I can = trust in the markets. Keep the faith, CANSLIM still works, even if all = it does right now is say stay in cash. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- CONGRESS I am of the era that was a part of the government when Congress decided = it didn't like being pressured into passing a new budget just before = they adjourned for their summer long recess / vacation. So the various = government agencies went thru a lot of hoops and gyrations with a "five = quarter" fiscal year, so that the new government year would end = September 30, and give our elected Representatives and Senators plenty = of time to pass a new fiscal year budget without disruption to the many = agencies affected. It is now nearly January, start of the second quarter = of the current fiscal year, and Congress has yet to pass the budget for = the present year. What if they handled their reelection campaign the = same way, start working on their November reelection the following = January?? As it is, 800,000 Americans lose their unemployment benefits = today, because Congress recessed without dealing with an extension of = benefits. And another 95,000 will be added each following week. Next = Tuesday, the government program for flood insurance ends, and no new = policies can be written until, and unless, they restart it retroactive. = How many more govt programs are affected, all because our elected = officials in Washington had better things to do, than to do their job? = Would your boss let you go on several weeks vacation with a major = project already three months late? I don't think another 5 quarter = fiscal year is the answer, didn't work last time, no reason to think it = would work this time. But what might work is the boss (us taxpayers) = letting Congress know what we think of their priorities and attention to = their job. Just as every business must have a business plan, and a = budget, when it starts its fiscal year, so too must our government. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be once = again declining. I expect a lot of banks to again populate the list, = just because they have fallen more slowly, or even held their own. APOL - c&h BWS - potential 2nd base on the handle, but the cup poor, too deep, = volume wrong in original handle CEDC - c&h, but lacks a run up prior to the left rim CHCO - LLUR, earnings growing nicely, but sales declining FCFS - c&h, 1st b/o failed, back nearly to the handle, in my VR Fund, = low priced GIL - weak triple bottom GNTX - double bottom, trying to stay over the pivot HLTH - c&h IDXC - c&h, deep cup, in my VR Fund IRM - B3 MVL - c&h NSCN - c&h below highs, volume declining, owned and in my VR Fund NSDA - c&h below highs, in my VR Fund, volume declining PCLE - 8 week consolidation PORT - B2 PSUN - holding the b/o from a double bottom SMG - B4, future success thanks to all the new homes? SSYS - c&h, low priced STN - c&h, no growth on top line? UCBH - B5 UMPQ - c&h, 6 week handle, volume down UOPX - c&h, 6 week handle Happy Hunting, and good luck in the New Year Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0091_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
ECONOMICS
Consumer spending increased 0.5% in November = while income=20 increased 0.3%. both were a tenth better than expected.
 
Univ. of Michigan's final report on consumer = sentiment for=20 December shows a gain to 86.7 over November's 84.2 and in line with=20 expectations. Current conditions, and expectations, components also = showed gains=20 in line with expectations.
 
Durable goods orders for November fell sharply, = down 1.4%,=20 almost completely wiping out the sharp gain of 1.7% in October. Of more = concern=20 to me is that the drop was pretty much across all sectors. Worse still,=20 expectations were for a gain of about 0.8%. Does this mean the October = report=20 was flawed, and November's report simply caught up the error? = Non-defense=20 capital goods, which is often a measure of corporate capital spending = still long=20 awaited, fell 2.2% excluding aircraft against a rise in October of 5.9%. = The=20 only sector to post a gain was computers / electronic products, up 0.3% = on top=20 of the 3.5% of the prior month. However, computers by themselves fell = 3.7%,=20 while communications equipment rose 1.4%.
 
Deflation remains alive and well in Japan, where = the=20 November CPI dropped another 0.8% year over year, the 38th consecutive = month of=20 declines. And expectations were for a slightly greater decline. Average = spending=20 was down 3.4% year over year, guess they should really appreciate all = the US=20 consumers that keep on spending more than they are making, and keeping = the=20 Japanese export based economy at least on life support.
 
In another throwback to uncertainty and = unpredictability,=20 the new claims figure for initial unemployment claims came in below=20 expectations, down 60,000 instead of the expected 20K or so, taking it = well=20 under 400K once again. But the 4 week average crept up 2,500 to 404.5K, = staying=20 over 400K for the second week. At least one Labor Dept analyst was = honest enough=20 to admit that the seasonal "adjustments" this time of year can cause the = reported numbers to "swing widely".
 
New home sales were up again, this time a 5.7% = increase in=20 November, a new monthly record, and offsetting the 4% drop in October. = Forecast=20 had been for a decline . As usual, low mortgage rates were credited. = Average=20 price was $218,900, up 5.8% year over year, but down 2.9% from=20 October.
"M" (as in Merry Christmas)
Well, for sure Santa failed to show up for the = party.=20 There's no doubt now that 2002 will mark the third consecutive year for = down=20 markets, first time since 1941. Hummm, 1941, wasn't that the year that = we=20 started Pearl Harbor Day, and the War To End All Wars?? Guess we didn't = quite=20 get it right, kept practicing in Korea (haven't I been seeing them in = the news a=20 lot lately), Vietnam, Mid East (wait a minute, aren't we getting ready = to start=20 another war over there?), Bosnia, parts of the former Soviet Union, = various=20 South American countries (if you count massively armed guerrilla groups=20 moonlighting with some drug smuggling). Then there's the price of = energy, crude=20 up about 50% for the year, but hey, any day now we will whip the socks = off the=20 Iraqis, take over their country, and pump all their oil out to the world = at=20 giveaway prices. And Venezuela will elect a new leader any day, and be = back to=20 full production the next day. And, of course, that's all corporate = America needs=20 to jump start all their companies, double production, hire a qizillion = new=20 workers to staff the double shifts they will be running, and = unemployment will=20 plunge to a record zero percent. And, of course, earnings will soar even = before=20 sales begin to pick up. Then again, what if? What if 2002 is not the end = of it,=20 and the markets are down again in 2003?? Now that hasn't happened since = the=20 1929-1932 era. Didn't our parents (or for you kids out there, = grandparents) call=20 that The Great Depression?? Like, what was so great about it, couldn't = have been=20 the soup lines in the freezing cold, I don't believe any soup could = taste that=20 good. Maybe it was the sense of community, as everyone struggled with = record=20 unemployment, and the collapse of many banks and other financial = institutions,=20 along with the loss of people's life savings. Hummm, sounds a little = like Japan=20 today (or maybe Enron). Nah, couldn't happen again, could it? Don't we = learn=20 from our mistakes? Like Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm? Pearl Harbor? = September=20 11th? The Great Depression? Desert Storm Revisited? Enron? Worldcom? = Global=20 Crossing?
 
While I can hope for a lot of things from the = new year,=20 that's only wishful thinking. While the market pundits sit and tell us = what=20 can't happen next year, or what will, only time will actually reveal to = us just=20 what is going on. I can't tell the market what it SHOULD do, but the = market can=20 and will tell me what it IS doing, right then, right now, if I am only = patient=20 and listen. That is the only pure truth that I can trust in the markets. = Keep=20 the faith, CANSLIM still works, even if all it does right now is say = stay in=20 cash.
CONGRESS
I am of the era that was a part of the government when Congress = decided it=20 didn't like being pressured into passing a new budget just before they = adjourned=20 for their summer long recess / vacation. So the various government = agencies went=20 thru a lot of hoops and gyrations with a "five quarter" fiscal year, so = that the=20 new government year would end September 30, and give our elected = Representatives=20 and Senators plenty of time to pass a new fiscal year budget without = disruption=20 to the many agencies affected. It is now nearly January, start of the = second=20 quarter of the current fiscal year, and Congress has yet to pass the = budget for=20 the present year. What if they handled their reelection campaign the = same way,=20 start working on their November reelection the following January?? As it = is,=20 800,000 Americans lose their unemployment benefits today, because = Congress=20 recessed without dealing with an extension of benefits.  And = another 95,000=20 will be added each following week. Next Tuesday, the government program = for=20 flood insurance ends, and no new policies can be written until, and = unless, they=20 restart it retroactive. How many more govt programs are affected, all = because=20 our elected officials in Washington had better things to do, than to do = their=20 job? Would your boss let you go on several weeks vacation with a major = project=20 already three months late? I don't think another 5 quarter fiscal year = is the=20 answer, didn't work last time, no reason to think it would work this = time. But=20 what might work is the boss (us taxpayers) letting Congress know what we = think=20 of their priorities and attention to their job. Just as every business = must have=20 a business plan, and a budget, when it starts its fiscal year, so too = must our=20 government.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES =
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 appears to be once again declining. I expect a lot of banks to again = populate=20 the list, just because they have fallen more slowly, or even held their=20 own.
 
APOL - c&h
BWS - potential 2nd base on the handle, but the cup poor, too deep, = volume=20 wrong in original handle
CEDC - c&h, but lacks a run up prior to the left rim
CHCO - LLUR, earnings growing nicely, but sales declining
FCFS - c&h, 1st b/o failed, back nearly to the handle, in my VR = Fund,=20 low priced
GIL - weak triple bottom
GNTX - double bottom, trying to stay over the pivot
HLTH - c&h
IDXC - c&h, deep cup, in my VR Fund
IRM - B3
MVL - c&h
NSCN - c&h below highs, volume declining, owned and in my VR = Fund
NSDA - c&h below highs, in my VR Fund, volume declining
PCLE - 8 week consolidation
PORT - B2
PSUN - holding the b/o from a double bottom
SMG - B4, future success thanks to all the new homes?
SSYS - c&h, low priced
STN - c&h, no growth on top line?
UCBH - B5
UMPQ - c&h, 6 week handle, volume down
UOPX - c&h, 6 week handle
 
Happy Hunting, and good luck in the New Year
 
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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