From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #315 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, July 5 1998 Volume 02 : Number 315 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX Re: [CANSLIM] THRX [CANSLIM] Leaders leaving the station before the 06/23 follow-through day Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders leaving the station before the 06/23 follow-through day Re: [CANSLIM] Johan's Portfolio and a Canslim Puzzle ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 03 Jul 1998 15:23:42 -0700 From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX As one who is in the process of being on the receiving end of these little sun rays, I can tell you an oversupply is not the problem. Theragenics produces Iodine125 seeds and are relative easy for the Radiation/Ocologist/Urologist to obtain. There is a lead time of a few weeks. The other commonly used seed Is Paladium 103 are more diffficult to obtain. There is a large, long backlogue, and is not produced by Theregenics, and I do not recall the name. As far as I am aware, these products are only produced by two companies. I do not know why Theregencis took such a hit. I do know that they are expanding their production capacity by adding a few linear accelerators and they probably are not cheap. I would venture to say this well be looked on as a great buying opportunity. As this means of treating Prostate Cancer gains prominance, and it will as men such as myself look for valid, effective alternatives to the surgeons table and scapple. I cannot contribute much to this group in the realm of stock picks, market position, rankings and ratings, but I can be a resource, to the best of my ability for those of the membership who are going to be diagnosed with this miserable disease. Of the 800 plus who are on this list, I guess that most are male, and the probability is excellent that I am not going to be the only one who is diagnosed. And of those women who are here, your significant other may be at risk. Ask me questions, privately, and I will do what I am able. Regards, Dan Cash CA011667@aol.com wrote: > THRX along with 2 other companies that aslo produce seeds took a beating > yesterday. I believe an anylist suggested that there is now an over supply of > "SEEDS" in the industry. > > Chris. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 04 Jul 1998 07:21:52 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX At 15:23 7/3/98 -0700, you wrote: >As one who is in the process of being on the receiving end of these little sun >rays, I can tell you an oversupply is not the problem. > >Theragenics produces Iodine125 seeds and are relative easy for the >Radiation/Ocologist/Urologist to obtain. There is a lead time of a few weeks. ****.. Ssniped ..**** >Regards, >Dan Cash > >CA011667@aol.com wrote: > >> THRX along with 2 other companies that aslo produce seeds took a beating >> yesterday. I believe an anylist suggested that there is now an over supply f >> "SEEDS" in the industry. >> Chris. ****.. Snatched ..**** Note that the only analyst worried about excess capacity is Parice Halbert and no competition in palladuim seeds has been demonstrated to date. ............................................................................. Theragenics Shares Fall as Competition Mounts Norcross, Georgia, July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Theragenics Corp. shares fell 36 percent as the maker of implantable radiation devices to treat prostate cancer encounters stiffer competition, analysts said. Theragenics fell 8 3/16 to 14 13/16 in trading of 7.58 million shares, more than 16 times its three-month daily average. Norcross, Georgia-based Theragenics is a market leader in making radioactive ``seeds,'' which are implanted in a cancerous prostate gland to help kill the cancer cells. While the Theragenics story isn't all roses, we still believe seeding is an attractive alternative'' to prostate surgery, said Frank D. Brown, an analyst with Sterne, Agee & Leach, who has a ``buy'' rating on the stock. The stock was downgraded to ``neutral'' from ``buy'' by analyst Parice Halbert at Dain Rauscher, who said she's worried about excess capacity as more companies enter the market. An increase in production should still not be a problem for Theragenics, said Melissa Wilmoth, a Smith Barney analyst who has a ``strong buy'' rating on the stock. "We really don't believe there are over-capacity issues." The seeding technology field is becoming a popular alternative to surgery for urologists and patients, Brown said. About 10 percent of prostate cancer patients who qualify for surgery are treated with the seeds. Brown expects this number to rise to 25 percent in the next couple of years. Theragenics will account for approximately 37 percent of the $90 to $100 million seed market in 1998, Brown said. The company works with Johnson & Johnson subsidiary Indigo to market and provide customer service for its product. It's unfortunate that the market has decided to compare our 11 years of results to those of companies with IPOs and no manufacturing experience,'' said Christine Jacobs, Theragenics chairman, president and chief executive. While the supply of radioactive seeds has been tight for the past year, several new companies are beginning to penetrate the market, Brown said. North American Scientific Inc. and Mentor Corp. are working together on a similar version of a palladium radioactive seed, as is C.R. Bard Inc. Mentor started selling a competing product -- iodine seeds -- within the last six months, said Juan Noble, an analyst with Fahenestock & Co. Inc. who a ``buy'' rating on Mentor and a ``hold'' on Theragenics. The seeds represent about 3 percent of Mentor's total sales. Meanwhile, Nycomed Amersham Plc dominates the market for iodine seeds and is expanding its manufacturing capacity as others like Uromed Corp. are moving into their market. Jacobs said Theragenics' palladium seed stays radioactive for a shorter time, but kills cancer three times faster than the iodine counterparts. She said competitors haven't proven they can produce the seeds in large quantities and a sustainable fashion. Investors are trying to decide whether or not this is a commodity product,'' Brown said. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 04 Jul 1998 17:18:44 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders leaving the station before the 06/23 follow-through day Does anyone else find it frustrating that a lot of the leaders already left the station before the 06/23 follow-through day? (With the benefit of hind-sight, the 06/16 NASDAQ reversal day was the start signal for a lot of stocks.) O'Neil says you should own the leaders. But how could you own them when you are supposed to wait for the follow-through day? And by the time the follow-through day was there, the leaders where already too extended to be considered buyable. Side note: The real leaders are the internet stocks. Very few have earnings to write home about. So a true CANSLIMer can not and could not have been in the real leaders anyway. Personally, I'm glad I now have software (QPv2) to scan the entire stock market for new highs etc., so that during next correction, I'll be able to watch the potential new leaders shaping up. Because that is IMO an important part of 'watching for the market turn'. I'd like to know how other members approach(ed) this challenge. And I'd also like to know who owns what they think are currently 'leaders' and when/why they bought them. Myself, I own MSFT, LU, CPWR and mattress-stuffer GE. Bought some DELL Thursday after in bounced of the low off its base last Thursday. The only stock in this list that could be considered CANSLIM is CPWR. But even that one has a float of 150M, which is too big for a pure CANSLIM investment. The reason I bought non-S (large floats) MSFT, LU and DELL is because the NDX (NASDAQ 100) came out of this correction so strongly while the small caps are still underperforming the mid- and big caps like those of the NDX big time. These stocks have high daily volume and very small spreads. The chance of these stocks gapping down 50% in a day are small. So I said to myself: "Why take the risk at THIS moment in time (the 2 or 3 days after the follow-through day)?" I am however actively looking for CANSLIM-type stocks and will be adding them to my portfolio as the opportunities come along. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 4 Jul 1998 12:10:19 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders leaving the station before the 06/23 follow-through day <> As I said a few days ago, it's a matter of focus. Which means, in part, letting some of the trains go. When you're coming out of a correction, you can assume that many of these stocks are going to be forming cups. A few will be in bases and will launch from there before the follow-through day (it's a given that some stocks have to go up in order for the market to rise and provide the rally and follow-through days in the first place). You can take your chances with them or you can wish them well. But when you're looking at stocks in cups, there are multiple opportunities to buy them. The third pattern--the double-bottom--gives you some notice as well if the stock hasn't yet reached the midpoint of the W. But if the stock--leader or not--is in a wide and loose pattern, or no discernible pattern at all, you don't buy it, high RS or no high RS. That's where focus comes in. You look instead for those stocks with constructive patterns that are less likely to do you wrong. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 04 Jul 98 23:30:50 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Johan's Portfolio and a Canslim Puzzle > Myself, I own MSFT, LU, CPWR and mattress-stuffer GE. > The only stock in this list that could be considered CANSLIM is CPWR. = But > even that one has a float of 150M, which is too big for a pure CANSLIM > investment. Johan, Your post rang a bell for me. Wasn't sure why until I re-checked my end-of-week IBD. There, on the back page, under "Your Graphic Review" were 3 of your 4 stocks. (Your mattress-stuffer GE was not listed.) This brings up a real annoyance for me. Are the stocks in this section Canslim, or are they not Canslim? They all have the right EPS and RS numbers, but some have enormous floats, including all four of the stocks = above. Yet if they are NOT Canslim, why do the editors (and presumably WON), suggest that we save the Graphic Review section "for further study over the weekend". For non-Canslim entertainment value? Let's take a look at the culprits: MSFT: 94/93/A LU: 96/97/A CPWR: 96/94/B Ok... that's not enough detail you say. Well, let's put one of these reprobates under the microscope... The Lucent (LU) numbers : C: +160% last quarter; +26% prior quarter A: + 50% over last year N: New high on Thursday; many new products S: OK, got me here, 1,311 M shares L: A market leader; also an industry group leader I: Sponsor Rank B on average; A+ sponsorship as well (Janus) M: Market has turned around (Jeffry's decree confirms this) Other : Last quarter's sales up 20%, GRS is B, and ROE is 49.6% = In all, LU would seem to qualify as a Canslim stock - except for S. This brings up the wider issue of size. In SOME industry groups (and particularly in the groups represented by the stocks above) it seems that if a stock has Canslim-L (is a leader), then it lacks Canslim-S (has way too big a float per HTMMIS rules). And vice-versa. You get one or the other. Hence Johan's conundrum. Hence my own annoyance when trying to assemble a portfolio. When this happens, I just say rude things and buy Wal-mart (up 22% since I bought it mid-March). I also buy other Canslim-phobic stocks such as Euro (egad !) WEBS (hugely profitable in the spring when I sold). Any comments out there on this "S" versus "L" issue? I am losing bloody patience with this. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #315 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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