From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #318 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, July 7 1998 Volume 02 : Number 318 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS Re: [CANSLIM] BKS [CANSLIM] Best selection methods using IBD, Daily Graphs? RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo - Dan RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS [CANSLIM] Market Stuff - OTC Adv/Declines [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS Re: [CANSLIM] BKS RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY RE: [CANSLIM] Best selection methods using IBD, Daily Graphs? Re: [CANSLIM] BKS Re: [CANSLIM] BKS RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Re: [CANSLIM] Elder Triple Screen - Db Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo and Guilt [CANSLIM] Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 08:15:14 -0400 Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo and Guilt Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo - to Dan Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo - to Dan Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo and Guilt Re: [CANSLIM] Market Confirmation ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 19:55:50 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS Unfortunately, TELESCAN doesn't have the same Stochastic and MACD settings available that were previously discussed, but: using the previously discussed screen for HGS stocks, with a Stochastic below 20, the MACD below 0 and the MACD histogram higher than it was yesterday, returned the following stocks tonight. ARTS CRCC (had the second largest change in MACD histogram) LAKE SGK LIND ACAM SHE COLB MLA (had the largest change in MACD histogram) Maybe someone could check these out and see how close the TSCAN search comes to finding a candidate for us. If these are the proper trade signals, I will loosen up the parameters a bit on the fundamentals to "cast a bigger net". - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 19:00:06 -0700 (PDT) From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BKS No way. AMZN is a pure play on the internet. It doesn't have to maintain any brick /mortar stores nor does it have to keep inventory. Its also growing revenues exponentally. Anindo > > Barnes & Noble (BKS), may be a competetor to amzon.com seems to be breaking > out. If AMZN can shoot up from about $8 to $125 in one year, BKS may become as > famous as AMZN and shoot up. Looks much better comapred to AMZN and is in a > similar bussiness. > > BKS: 68m shares outstanding, 48m float. > > RS: 92 > EPS rank: 77 (could be better) > Institutions: 30% > Management:30% > > Surindra > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 21:29:32 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] Best selection methods using IBD, Daily Graphs? Hello all, I'd like to describe my use of IBD to pick stocks, and invite anyone to criticize or offer suggestions for improvements. I usually read the prior day's mailed IBD from 4:30 am to 6:30 am, then leave for work. I'd like to cut this time down, if possible, with your help! First I log into www.bigcharts.com and set it for viewing 1 year weekly price logarithmic charts with 50 day moving averages. I check stocks in the New Highs, Earnings News, Stocks with Greatest Percentage Rise in Volume (NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX), New America, and Companies in the News sections. Using BigCharts graphs, I evaluate those with good RS/EPS ranks (when provided). I record the symbols and RS/EPS rank of stocks basing or just breaking from a base on a special worksheet I developed. I augment this list with picks from the "mini graphs" in the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX IBD sections. Then I fill in the annual earnings growth, last quarter EPS, and sales growth numbers for NASDAQ stocks (provided every day, unlike NYSE and AMEX.) At this point you might believe I have a decent set of picks. Unfortunately, I am missing a ton of CANSLIM stats, especially for NYSE and AMEX stocks. However, I try to meet all or most of the CANSLIM criteria, which is required on my worksheet. Finding the data involves getting earnings forecasts from Yahoo Detailed Research; prior earnings from www.stocksite.com; and, in some cases, institutional sponsorship, group RS, management ownership, debt, and other stats from various IBDs. Finally, I grade each pick and eliminate those not meeting CANSLIM. I am wondering if subscribing to the printer Daily Graphs might save me a lot of time and effort. For example, I am very strict concerning earnings acceleration. If a stock does not show an acceleration over last quarter earnings, or C or less group RS, or debt >100%, or certain other stats, I immediately eliminate it. Unfortunately, I often learn these details late in the selection process, especially for NYSE and AMEX stocks. So, does anyone have general ideas for more efficient selection? Would Daily Graphs work, and is the online version better than the printed version? Thanks for your ideas, Richard - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 06 Jul 1998 22:31:01 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS I couldn't find one I was really compelled to like Dan. Although on a daily basis some did not look to bad. I like the weekly, it gives the feel of the prevailing longer term trend. Interestingly none had a positive going (from the negative) macd histogram. Thanks for the scan, Frank Wolynski At 19:55 7/6/98 -0600, Dan Sutton wrote: >Unfortunately, TELESCAN doesn't have the same Stochastic and MACD settings >available that were previously discussed, but: using the previously >discussed screen for HGS stocks, with a Stochastic below 20, the MACD below >0 and the MACD histogram higher than it was yesterday, returned the >following stocks tonight. > >ARTS AIQ weekly MACD Histogram is still going more negative. Daily still equal to previous day negative. Hasn't turned. Group #113 Consumer Products-Misc >CRCC (had the second largest change in MACD histogram) Don't have this one, neither does Big Charts. >LAKE AIQ weekly MACD Histogram is still going more negative. Daily turned positive three days ago. Group #148 Computer Svcs-Security >SGK AIQ weekly MACD Histogram just crossed the zero line and is going more negative. Daily just turned positive. Group #73 Comml Svcs-Printing >LIND AIQ weekly MACD Histogram is still going more negative. Daily just turned positive from a strong excursion to the negative. Group #48 Metal Proc & Fabrication >ACAM AIQ weekly MACD histogram is still going more negative. Daily turned positive two days ago. Group #48 Metal Proc & Fabrication >SHE I don't have this one. Neither did BC. >COLB AIQ weekly MACD Histogram is still going more negative. Daily is trending beneath the zero line very bearishly. Group #117 Banks West & Southwest >MLA (had the largest change in MACD histogram) AIQ weekly MACD Histogram is still going more negative. Daily turned positive Thursday. Group #104 Diversified Operations > >Maybe someone could check these out and see how close the TSCAN search comes >to finding a candidate for us. If these are the proper trade signals, I will >loosen up the parameters a bit on the fundamentals to "cast a bigger net". > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 20:35:47 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS I agree, as a group they pretty much stunk....but is the technical signal right? I could have it look for weekly MACD instead of daily. The volume alone would wave me off of the candidates so far, but I can change that by lowering the earnings parameters. I set annual earnings to 10% instead of the 25% that the HGS file looks for candidate list increased to about 40. Also I set the maximum MACD as zero so there won't be any crossing over into positive territory unless I adjust the maximum to a positive number. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 06 Jul 98 22:42:26 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo - Dan > Concerning the MACD-Histogram screen. What settings are you using? In > TELESCAN , there is a choice of 3 or 4 and although I don't recall > exactly I think one of them is something like 4/10/21. Is there a > particular MACD you find more useful? Just so I understand, you are > looking for the histogram to be below 0 but higher than yesterday (or > last week depending on if you are looking at daily or weekly MACD)? > > Same question on Stochastics, is there a particular setting you find > most useful? And again just so I understand, you are looking for both > the fast and slow to be below 20? Hi Dan, Thank you for the nice words. To answer your questions.... For the MACD-Histogram I use the 12-26-9 mentioned in Elder's book, and have not departed from it as yet.. This is the setting that Bigcharts automatically uses as well. Elder also says that some traders may choose to use a 5-34-7. Will Telescan let you use this second setting? You are right about the histogram bar. Ideally you are looking for it to be well below zero but but higher than last week's (on a weekly chart). Once the histogram rises above the zero line, your psychology should begin shifting from additional accumulation to starting to think about selling. For the Slow Stochastic, Elder uses the vanilla %K:5 and %D:3. Note that for triple screen, Elder recommends that both stochastic lines only need be below 30, not 20. You can make your move as soon as they have both come down to touch it. This works for me. Hope this clarifies things. Walter - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 06 Jul 1998 22:46:44 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS At 20:35 7/6/98 -0600, Dan Sutton wrote: >I agree, as a group they pretty much stunk....but is the technical signal >right? I could have it look for weekly MACD instead of daily. The volume >alone would wave me off of the candidates so far, but I can change that by >lowering the earnings parameters. I set annual earnings to 10% instead of >the 25% that the HGS file looks for candidate list increased to about 40. >Also I set the maximum MACD as zero so there won't be any crossing over into >positive territory unless I adjust the maximum to a positive number. > Elder says the macd histogram should be going positive. This doesn't mean that it should be positive. It can be negative, but less negative than last week. Thus it is positive going. ( The change is a positive one, but the result is still negative.) I would prefer the weekly MACD figures. And leave your max MACD as zero. Will it scan for a less negative? AKA positive going macd change? I don't recommend lowering your screen to get more candidates. The 25% annual earnings would suffice as a minimum for my tastes. The point isn't to get more stocks to look at, but to find more of the right stocks. Right? Thanks for asking, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 06 Jul 1998 22:54:24 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Stuff - OTC Adv/Declines Two down days for the OTC Adv/Decline line. NYSE looking good, Adv/Decline strong. Not too strong, this leg up. Possibly a retest coming soon? Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 06 Jul 1998 23:05:48 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY FMY - Fred Meyer has a weekly macd histogram that is just going positive. Nice, tight OBV Divergence. The 20day MOV & 50day MOV are constricting. The 200day is approaching. Elephant tracks on 7/1/98. > 1mil moved. EPS/RS 44/86 Group #19 Retail Department Stores Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 20:30:09 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY < 1mil moved. I'm puzzled about this one. The weekly MACD histogram also turned positive the first and fourth weeks of June, but the stock went basically nowhere. Isn't it also necessary that the MACD at least begin to go flat from negative if not positive from negative, rather than just less negative (as in October of '97 or February of '98)? Also, the large volume resulting in an unchanged price generally indicates distribution. Do you feel that's not the case here? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 23:34:22 -0400 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY 'Elephant tracks' were the result of a 9 million share offering as per Reuter note below: NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Fred Meyer Inc. was one of the most active stocks on the New York Stock Exchange after the food retailer sold nearly nine million shares of stock in an offering priced at $42.50 a share. Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette said it was the lead underwriter of the offering, which raised roughly $380 million before underwriting fees. Bill-->> - ------------------ At 11:05 PM -0400 7/6/98, Frank V. Wolynski wrote: >FMY - Fred Meyer has a weekly macd histogram that is just going positive. >Nice, tight OBV Divergence. >The 20day MOV & 50day MOV are constricting. The 200day is approaching. >Elephant tracks on 7/1/98. > 1mil moved. > >EPS/RS 44/86 >Group #19 Retail Department Stores > >Frank Wolynski > > >- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 23:34:22 -0400 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY 'Elephant tracks' were the result of a 9 million share offering as per Reuter note below: NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Fred Meyer Inc. was one of the most active stocks on the New York Stock Exchange after the food retailer sold nearly nine million shares of stock in an offering priced at $42.50 a share. Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette said it was the lead underwriter of the offering, which raised roughly $380 million before underwriting fees. Bill-->> - ------------------ At 11:05 PM -0400 7/6/98, Frank V. Wolynski wrote: >FMY - Fred Meyer has a weekly macd histogram that is just going positive. >Nice, tight OBV Divergence. >The 20day MOV & 50day MOV are constricting. The 200day is approaching. >Elephant tracks on 7/1/98. > 1mil moved. > >EPS/RS 44/86 >Group #19 Retail Department Stores > >Frank Wolynski > > >- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 21:33:15 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo using BKS Using a weekly MACD that is negative but more positive than yesterday, Stochastics less than 30, stocks with EPS greater than 50, Telescans RS greater than 50, 1 year earnings growth greater than 15%,Last qtrs EPS increase greater than 20% over the prior year, price greater than 50% of the 52 week high, institutional holding less than 70%. The following stocks came up NATR MFBC KSBK - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 23:33:12 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BKS I do not disagree with you Anindo. Momentum players are winning now and look at what is going on with all the internet stocks. I bought EGGS a month or so ago and is way up today. I bought another momentum player this am: ZAP.....! Lucky I guess. Regards Surindra In a message dated 98-07-06 22:09:15 EDT, you write: << Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] BKS Date: 98-07-06 22:09:15 EDT From: amajumda@cisco.com (Anindo Majumdar) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com No way. AMZN is a pure play on the internet. It doesn't have to maintain any brick /mortar stores nor does it have to keep inventory. Its also growing revenues exponentally. Anindo > > Barnes & Noble (BKS), may be a competetor to amzon.com seems to be breaking > out. If AMZN can shoot up from about $8 to $125 in one year, BKS may become as > famous as AMZN and shoot up. Looks much better comapred to AMZN and is in a > similar bussiness. > > BKS: 68m shares outstanding, 48m float. > > RS: 92 > EPS rank: 77 (could be better) > Institutions: 30% > Management:30% > > Surindra > >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 21:35:08 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Fundamentally, I don't think I would touch them. With their recent large acquisitions I think their debt to equity ratio is through the ceiling - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Bill Sent: Monday, July 06, 1998 9:34 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com; canslim@mail.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY 'Elephant tracks' were the result of a 9 million share offering as per Reuter note below: NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Fred Meyer Inc. was one of the most active stocks on the New York Stock Exchange after the food retailer sold nearly nine million shares of stock in an offering priced at $42.50 a share. Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette said it was the lead underwriter of the offering, which raised roughly $380 million before underwriting fees. Bill-->> - ------------------ At 11:05 PM -0400 7/6/98, Frank V. Wolynski wrote: >FMY - Fred Meyer has a weekly macd histogram that is just going positive. >Nice, tight OBV Divergence. >The 20day MOV & 50day MOV are constricting. The 200day is approaching. >Elephant tracks on 7/1/98. > 1mil moved. > >EPS/RS 44/86 >Group #19 Retail Department Stores > >Frank Wolynski > > >- - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 21:48:44 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Best selection methods using IBD, Daily Graphs? Richard, It sounds like you are doing many of the same things I was doing before I bought Telescan 3 years ago, It has many search functions and allows you to define the parameters to search for. Is it the perfect tool? ABSOLUTELY NOT..it has lots of quirks that drive me crazy, but it eventually does what I want it to. If you would like, I can run a search that takes the stocks you like, finds the characteristics that they have in common, expand the search, and provide you with a list of stocks that meet those parameters. I have heard that Quotes Plus will also do some searches based on earnings and a few other parameters (certainly less expensive than Telescan). But, for me Telescan works fine. Let me know if you want me to want to run some tests. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 23:53:15 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BKS Thanks Walter. BKS showed some rise this am and one time had more point gain than AMZN, but came way down late during the day. I really trust your last name: Stock!! Surindra In a message dated 98-07-06 11:58:49 EDT, you write: << Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] BKS Date: 98-07-06 11:58:49 EDT From: wstock@globalserve.net (Walter Stock) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Hi Surindra, In terms of Canslim, BKS earnings over the last five quarters are a little ugly. They only made positive earnings over the Christmas quarter. Still, this may not be that unusual for the business they are in, i.e. retailing. I think the real issue here is whether you believe that a traditional retailer can be successful selling books through the internet. And if they are successful online, will they take customers away from AMZN or from their own retail operation ? I really don't know, one way or the other. On a more positive note, my non-Canslim Triple Screen (Elder) gave a very strong buy signal on June 16th, and again on June 26th. It is still giving a weak buy, but is approaching over-bought territory. Happy trading, Walter Stock (yes, that really is my last name) Oakville, ONT - Canada >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 00:02:21 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BKS Yeah, I played the game with KLB. Up over 3,000 in 3 trading days on an initial 4,750. Still holding a small portion and getting ready to short when signal. Call it luck, fate, or simply nuts, 4.75 to 19 3/8 in three days isn't too bad. Greg - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 21:08:07 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen <> You don't say whether you're pleased with the results or not. I assume you're not. But if you're not, that doesn't necessarily mean that there's anything wrong with what you're doing. You can't expect to turn up gold every day (I haven't found anything better than what I bought two weeks ago). And because you're using a computer rather than thumbing through hundreds of charts, there's no way of knowing a day in advance what will trigger your screen tomorrow. Therefore, be cautious about loosening up your criteria further in order to find something that you think is decent. Part of my screen, in fact, is to filter out anything whose 50d is below its 200d. Worse than that, I avoid buying anything whose price is below the 200d, regardless of where the 50d is, because I can't think of a particularly good reason to buy something that's going down or just beginning to struggle up through gallons of drek when so many other stocks are running for daylight. It's tough to maintain focus with all this internet business going on, but I see the same thing going on now as I saw with biotech and gaming. People were afraid to jump on, then they were afraid that they were missing it all. Now they're piling on. Shorts are covering. People who ordinarily would never dream of buying stocks like these go ahead and do so because it looks as though they can't lose. But then there's nobody left to buy. Iomega, at its peak, was almost six times its 200d MA. Now it sells for less than $6 a share. Just something to think about. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 98 06:39:25 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elder Triple Screen - Db > Walter, > > Without quoting your entire post, I'd like to know how you reconcile > O'N's preferred chart patterns with Elder's "stronger" and "weaker" > buy signals. It seems that the strongest MACD histogram buy signal > would be most likely to occur as the stock's arc has just begun to > turn positive from negative or flat. O'N, on the other hand, would > have us wait for one thing or another. I realize that Elder is a > trader and CS is not a trading approach, but since you use the two (I > presume together), am curious as to how you, as I said, reconcile them. > > --Db Db, Yes, the strongest weekly MACD buy signals occur once the stock has started an uptrend from previous flat or negative action. This is what I try to do: First, I limit my stock picks to ones with very strong Canslim numbers. Second, I manually go through the charts looking for the familiar Canslim patterns. I look for cup and handles, cup and saucers, and also the " W " patterns recently mentioned on the list. Third, I apply Triple Screen. Are there a lot of stocks that survive all the criteria? Usually very few, sometimes none at all. Still, applying Triple Screen seems to get you into a Canslim stock earlier and with better timing i.e. just before or during the party, instead of scrambling in late. Walter - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 1998 07:02:15 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY At 20:30 7/6/98 -0700, dbphoenix wrote: > ><positive. >Nice, tight OBV Divergence. >The 20day MOV & 50day MOV are constricting. The 200day is approaching. >Elephant tracks on 7/1/98. > 1mil moved. > >I'm puzzled about this one. The weekly MACD histogram also turned >positive the first and fourth weeks of June, but the stock went >basically nowhere. Isn't it also necessary that the MACD at least >begin to go flat from negative if not positive from negative, rather >than just less negative (as in October of '97 or February of '98)? >Also, the large volume resulting in an unchanged price generally >indicates distribution. Do you feel that's not the case here? > >--Db >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > During those upturns the volume was not moving in with the price. There has been more than the usual volume with the last 3 days of trading. All causing a strengthening of the OBV, Stochastic, MACD & Histogram. MF took a bad hit with the big vol move. It will be interesting. The latest upticks can also be viewed as further strengthening the divergence, trending less negative. I agree on the issue regarding the weekly MACD. It appears to be reflecting that the correction is not quite finished. However the downward move is losing speed. I have come to interpret such big volume moves not associated with a nearby high or low (within a few days) as inconclusive. I look to other technicals. If a new high had been reached last Wednesday and two days later this sort of volume was associated with no price movement, I would judge that to be distribution. On the other hand, once the stock has clearly begun moving sideways to down, if the volume causes a spike downwards, then that I would view as panic selling. This volume comes at a juncture that is almost 4 months after the high for the year. A bit late for serious distribution, unless it is going lower. Also at a time that is neither climatic or panic driven. Now my favorite: This volume also comes at a time very near the 21 week low. If your charting program will draw a bar of the 21 week low prices, you will note that for the past 3 years (the length of data I have) the 21 week low bar has never moved negatively, even a single and temporary tick, never. Current price of FMY places it very near the 21 week low bar. I think the long term trend is clear, up. I toss the 21 week low bar in my basket of indicators that weight favorably and find it has taken me from inconclusive to bullish on intepreting FMY. I can also build a case that a 40 week cyclical exists in FMY and that has 3 weeks to finish out, however cycles are far more difficult to see and interpret. I disgard it in this case, but remain aware that FMY could continue sideways to very slightly down for the next 2-3 weeks. If it breaks one way or the other, it will be most likely be the start of a new intermediate move. Fundamentally this needs better scrutiny as the 44 EPS has me a bit worried. I have not looked into this at all. I don't think Fred Meyers has the 'Sex Appeal' of a Yahoo or Mindspring, so current and future earnings have to be more sound, but the retailers are apparently enjoying sales growth. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 1998 07:04:26 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Thanks Bill, I do not like second offerings. Frank At 23:34 7/6/98 -0400, Bill wrote: >'Elephant tracks' were the result of a 9 million share offering as per >Reuter note below: > >NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Fred Meyer Inc. was one of the most active >stocks on the New York Stock Exchange after the food retailer sold nearly >nine million >shares of stock in an offering priced at $42.50 a share. > >Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette said it was the lead underwriter of the >offering, which raised roughly $380 million before underwriting fees. > >Bill-->> >------------------ > > >At 11:05 PM -0400 7/6/98, Frank V. Wolynski wrote: >>FMY - Fred Meyer has a weekly macd histogram that is just going positive. >>Nice, tight OBV Divergence. >>The 20day MOV & 50day MOV are constricting. The 200day is approaching. >>Elephant tracks on 7/1/98. > 1mil moved. >> >>EPS/RS 44/86 >>Group #19 Retail Department Stores >> >>Frank Wolynski >> >> >>- > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 1998 07:04:26 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen - Weekly MACD Histogram - FMY Thanks Bill, I do not like second offerings. Frank At 23:34 7/6/98 -0400, Bill wrote: >'Elephant tracks' were the result of a 9 million share offering as per >Reuter note below: > >NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Fred Meyer Inc. was one of the most active >stocks on the New York Stock Exchange after the food retailer sold nearly >nine million >shares of stock in an offering priced at $42.50 a share. > >Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette said it was the lead underwriter of the >offering, which raised roughly $380 million before underwriting fees. > >Bill-->> >------------------ > > >At 11:05 PM -0400 7/6/98, Frank V. Wolynski wrote: >>FMY - Fred Meyer has a weekly macd histogram that is just going positive. >>Nice, tight OBV Divergence. >>The 20day MOV & 50day MOV are constricting. The 200day is approaching. >>Elephant tracks on 7/1/98. > 1mil moved. >> >>EPS/RS 44/86 >>Group #19 Retail Department Stores >> >>Frank Wolynski >> >> >>- > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 98 07:19:39 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo and Guilt > The obvious response here, of course, is go out and buy the book. But > monsoon season arrived with a thud yesterday and I don't feel like > going outside until September. So I'm going to take advantage of > Walter's good nature (and I hope he won't be sorry he ever brought it > up). > > --Db Judging by the many e-mails about Triple Screen, both public and private, I am not sure just what I have created here. I am certainly feeling guilty about finding members of our group doing quick scans to identify stock candidates for purchase, based on my limited explanations of how Triple Screen works. PLEASE, please be careful with this. I have only scratched the surface of good Dr. Elder's book. It is as if I had told you about the "C" in CANSLIM without discussing the rest. My purpose in the posts has been to get you interested in Elder, as it can be applied to Canslim stocks, and AS A STARTING POINT FOR YOUR OWN FURTHER RESEARCH. So, while I am very happy to continue answering your questions, if you want to do Elder Screens, go to the library and learn from the source. Or, as Db says, buy the book. Walter P.S. I have no business relationship with Dr. Elder. Just a huge fan. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 06:22:01 -0600 From: "Deral Rackley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 08:15:14 -0400 FYI: Recently discussed GVA announced yesterday (7/6/98) a 3-for-2 stocksplit payable on Aug. 7 which will increase shares outstanding to 27 million. Internet stocks: Yesterday: Lycos (LCOS) surge 20 1/2 to 99 9/16 on news of a stock split YAHOO surged up 26 3/8 to 199 1/4 on expectation of "at least" a 3-for-1 and possible 4-for-1 although a 2-for-1 not ruled out Deral - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 07:07:45 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo and Guilt <> Don't feel guilty, Walter. As someone said, this can be a handy tool in one's toolbox, but it won't replace every other tool one owns. Hence my question about reconciling Elder's ideas with O'N's. The main reason I was interested in your thoughts is that for quite some time I had been fooling with various indicators and combinations of indicators in order to find something that would reduce the amount of time I was spending looking at charts and yield a better-looking and more constructive selection. I can't think of a better way to find out what indicators work than to go through this process (work for oneself, that is, according to risk level, timeframe, etc.). Without going into all the details, what I wound up with was a weekly MACD scan followed by a daily slosto (the latter involving using a half-dozen different combinations of settings to find something that was slow, but not too slow). After that point, I have several choices--scanning for stocks within a certain percentage of their highs, stocks whose short-term moving averages are crossing each other, etc. Although if there are only 30 or 40 charts after the slosto scan, I just look at them directly. Discovering that someone else had independently come up with essentially the same approach validated what I had been doing. I don't follow his buy and sell signals, but then he's not addressing CANSLIM, either, so that should come as no surprise. And his timeframe is much shorter than mine. Even so, the process and procedure are essentially the same, using at first long-term MAS, then ever-shorter MAs, to find those stocks which are and have been repairing themselves and are ready to move ahead. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 98 07:49:06 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo - to Dan > I agree, as a group they pretty much stunk....but is the technical sign= al > right? I could have it look for weekly MACD instead of daily. The volum= e > alone would wave me off of the candidates so far, but I can change that= by > lowering the earnings parameters. I set annual earnings to 10% instead = of > the 25% that the HGS file looks for candidate list increased to about = 40. > Also I set the maximum MACD as zero so there won't be any crossing over= into > positive territory unless I adjust the maximum to a positive number. > Hi Dan, If you want to use Triple Screen for position trading (intermediate-term) then you MUST use the Weekly MACD-Histogram. Using Daily MACD-Histogram is wrong. This is crucial because it takes a week's worth of data to have confidenc= e that the upwards trend has really taken hold for the intermediate term. Otherwise you can get whipsawed much too easily. Elder does use Daily MACD, but ONLY for very short-term trades (intra-day trades). Hope this helps, Walter - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 1998 08:45:27 -0600 From: Dan Sutton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo - to Dan Walter, Thanks for the note. I plan on picking up Elders book at noon today (it should give me some reading material in the airports tomorrow). I will add a weekly MACD and daily change to the HGS scan (but only as information..not a part of the search). Presently, I take the HGS file on a daily basis and plug in formulas that give a weight to each of the factors I consider important to my investing style. After reading Elders book I will decide how much weight I want to give to the MACD's. Using my present weights applied to last night's HGS file (which is not posted to the Canslim site), yielded the following top 5 stocks for this morning's consideration: ARTS BKE SEIC BBHF MNMD > Hi Dan, > > If you want to use Triple Screen for position trading (intermediate-term) > then you MUST use the Weekly MACD-Histogram. > > Using Daily MACD-Histogram is wrong. > > This is crucial because it takes a week's worth of data to have confidence > that the upwards trend has really taken hold for the intermediate term. > Otherwise you can get whipsawed much too easily. > > Elder does use Daily MACD, but ONLY for very short-term trades > (intra-day trades). > > Hope this helps, > > Walter > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 07 Jul 1998 10:37:14 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Screen Demo and Guilt At 07:19 AM 7/7/98 PDT, Walter Stock wrote: >Judging by the many e-mails about Triple Screen, both public >and private, I am not sure just what I have created here. > >I am certainly feeling guilty about finding members of our group doing >quick scans to identify stock candidates for purchase, based >on my limited explanations of how Triple Screen works. > >PLEASE, please be careful with this. I have only scratched the >surface of good Dr. Elder's book. It is as if I had told you about >the "C" in CANSLIM without discussing the rest. > >My purpose in the posts has been to get you interested in Elder, as >it can be applied to Canslim stocks, and AS A STARTING POINT >FOR YOUR OWN FURTHER RESEARCH. > >So, while I am very happy to continue answering your questions, >if you want to do Elder Screens, go to the library and learn from >the source. Or, as Db says, buy the book. > >Walter >P.S. I have no business relationship with Dr. Elder. >Just a huge fan. > Don't feel guilty Walter. I haven't assumed that everyone reading the posts will go out and buy the stocks based on what they have read here. That would be certainly foolish. I've read Dr. Elder's book, cover to cover, HTMMIS both editions, Eng, Pring, Prechter, Wienstein, Lynch and others. None had the 'Holy Grail', none will. Thanks for the concern, but I would never buy solely on the issues we have discussed thus far. I can't speak for others, but would echo your concern if they were. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 09:33:33 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Confirmation <> I guess nobody's going to tackle this, so I'll throw in my two cents. I wouldn't be too concerned about the sideways movement. For one thing we've been through a turbulent two months+. For another, volume hasn't been any great shakes (if it had been heavy with no upside progress, I'd be more concerned). For yet another, at least we're not going down. You have to consider where we are. Even if Japan hadn't put a stick in our spokes, we're at the beginning of earnings season. One can't expect the market to rocket forward when the calendar gets heavy beginning next week. In fact, you should be wary of stocks which rise rapidly just before their earnings announcement is due. The fact that we're basing just below a new high (in the Naz, at least) is reflected in the handles that almost all the stocks I'm following are forming. I see this as healthy, at least as long as volume remains moderate. As far as how safe it is to enter, you just rang a bell for yourself. What's your timeframe? Short-term? Intermediate? Long-term? What's your risk tolerance? How much time can you spend in front of your computer? How disciplined are you when it comes to triggering stops? How about buying back a stock you just sold? As Roseanne Roseannadanna would say, if it isn't one thing, it's something else (as soon as earnings season is over, earnings warning season begins). There are other approaches that accommodate more investing styles than CS does. They tell the aggressive when they can enter, the conservative when they can enter, and the anal when they can enter. You analyzes yourself and you takes your choice. And your chances. CS is a bit toward the anal side. It asks for so many confirmations that sometimes you wind up buying near the point where you need to think about selling. OTOH, CS is very risk-averse, so . . .. There's a lot of self-knowledge-work that has to go on here that has absolutely nothing with investing, and if it isn't done, one can find himself buying all the wrong things at the wrong time and selling them at even worse times. What's safe for one person is madness for another (or hopelessly tight-a**ed). Though one can read and study and seek advice and discuss and analyze and project, when it comes down to placing that order, he's about as alone as he can be, because nobody else is quite like him. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #318 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.