From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3191 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, March 2 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3191 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] OVTI [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 1 Mar 2003 18:01:20 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OVTI This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0082_01C2E01C.9027D1B0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Eric, with RS ranging from 10 to 30, and the charts that they each have, = I would call this bottom fishing rather than CANSLIM. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Eric Jaenike=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, February 28, 2003 2:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OVTI Notable strength and resistance clearing in SMH, IDTI, SMTC.=20 "Edward W. Gjertsen II" wrote:=20 Any comments on OVTI? Ed Gjertsen II ed@macktracks.com Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail message, including any = attachments, is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message. -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of = Spencer48@aol.com Sent: Friday, February 28, 2003 1:35 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMI Tom: Thanks. That's a very good point (I wonder if the word"former" in all=20 literature has ever had such significance)! jans In a message dated 2/27/2003 10:01:46 PM Eastern Standard Time,=20 stkguru@bellsouth.net writes: << You should also note that there is a very RED flag screaming right = in front of the word "Former". >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Tax Center - forms, calculators, tips, and more - ------=_NextPart_000_0082_01C2E01C.9027D1B0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Eric, with RS ranging from 10 to 30, and the = charts that=20 they each have, I would call this bottom fishing rather than=20 CANSLIM.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Eric = Jaenike=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Friday, February 28, 2003 2:52 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OVTI

Notable strength and resistance clearing in SMH, IDTI, SMTC.=20

 "Edward W. Gjertsen II" <ed@macktracks.com> = wrote:=20 Any=20 comments on OVTI?


Ed Gjertsen II
ed@macktracks.com


Confid= entiality=20 Notice: This e-mail message, including any attachments,
is for the = sole use=20 of the intended recipient(s) and may contain
confidential and = privileged=20 information. Any unauthorized review, use,
disclosure or = distribution is=20 prohibited. If you are not the intended
recipient, please contact = the=20 sender by reply e-mail and destroy all
copies of the original=20 message.


-----Original Message-----
From:=20 = owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.= com]=20 On Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com
Sent: Friday, February 28, 2003 1:35 = PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20 AMI

Tom:

Thanks. That's a very good point (I wonder if = the=20 word"former" in
all
literature has ever had such=20 significance)!

jans


In a message dated 2/27/2003 = 10:01:46 PM=20 Eastern Standard Time,
stkguru@bellsouth.net = writes:

<< You=20 should also note that there is a very RED flag screaming right=20 in
front
of the word "Former". >>

-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email = body,=20 write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use = quotes in=20 your email.


-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe = canslim"=20 or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your = email.


Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo!=20 Tax Center - forms, calculators, tips, and more - ------=_NextPart_000_0082_01C2E01C.9027D1B0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Mar 2003 11:35:35 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B1_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00B2_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20" - ------=_NextPart_001_00B2_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Economists started the week by cutting their forecast for this quarter = from 2.6% growth to 2.2%, while also lowering the "fool" year forecast = from 2.6% to 2.5%. Of course, that expectation for the year includes = doing 3.6% in the 4th quarter, down from 4.2% originally. They saw = little change in unemployment, and forecasted nearly a percent rise in = lending rates, which could damage the housing market as mortgage rates = go up as well. Growth in the 4th quarter 2002 GDP was revised up from 0.7% originally = reported, to 1.4%, expectations had been for a revision to 1.0%. Sales of existing homes jumped an unexpected 3% in January to a new = record at an annual rate of 6.09 million from an upwardly revised rate = of 5.91 million in December. The rate had been expected to drop to 5.80 = million. Inventories rose to a 4.5 month supply from a 4.3 month supply. Going the other way, sales of new homes fell 15.2% in January to an = annual rate of 914,000 from 1.08 million in December. A minor decline to = 1.05 million had been expected. While new home sales make up only a = small portion of the total housing sector, they are crucial to the = continued success of homebuilder stock prices. In another contradictory signal, consumer confidence plunged to 64 in = February from 78.8, hitting a nine year low (9 YEARS!!, that's worse = than right after 9/11). Expected was a drop to only 77. The magnitude of = the drop was mirrored in the expectations index, down to 65.6 from 81.1, = and in the present situation index, down to 61.6 from 75.3. Mostly mirroring this was Univ. of Michigan's consumer confidence report = for February, which was revised up slightly to 79.9 from 79.2, but = remains at a nine year low. Expectations were for no change. And just to confuse the picture more, January's Durable Goods report = showed a gain of 3.3% while December's report was revised down to 0.4% = decline. A gain of only 1.3% had been expected for January. Biggest = gainer was automotive, up over 10%. New unemployment claims continued to rise, up 417,000 for the week, = expected was a drop to 390K. The 4 week moving average rose again to = 399,750 while continuing claims dropped slightly to 3.38 million from = 3.42 million. In a prelude to next week's ISM manufacturing production report, the = NAPM-Chicago report for February fell less than expected, to 54.9 from = 56. Expected was a drop to 52.5. Prices paid continued to rise (don't = forget the spike in last month's PPI report) while the employment index = showed layoffs continuing, but at a slower rate. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" As I speculated on this topic last week, it was questionable whether the = two weeks of gains might be sustained. Now we know, it was not, another = losing week and indexes struggling to stay in the neighborhood of their = 20 day moving average. Charts look like we are just muddling along, = going no where in particular, no leadership, money moving around but not = staying, volume remains light, lots of uncertainty yet not an avalanche = of bearish sentiment either. What breakouts do occur, even from = fundamentally strong companies, also mostly fail quickly. The market = pundits keep suggesting we will retest the October lows, so far I don't = see evidence of that, nor do I see signs we are ready to start a = sustained rally of any size. Economic reports this week were mixed at = best, and did nothing to offset the bearish reports of last week. In = particular, the data on new single family housing suggests this sector = is finally slowing, even while existing housing remains strong. The = builders may finally be ready for a correction, even tho past worries of = a housing bubble have kept most from being overpriced. Iraq remains the = overriding and compelling influence on all markets. Israel's market was = up 2.5% in Sunday trading, I am sure a lot of that was due to Iraq = destroying 4 (of over 100) of their missiles on Saturday, thus lowering = the expectation of war just a bit. Until the issue of Iraq is resolved, = I do not expect markets to reflect their fundamental nature, and right = now the economic reports are simply not strong enough, any more than = corporate earnings, to suggest the markets should be rallying even = without the issue of Iraq. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN The nomination of the new Governor for the Bank of Japan pleased few = economists hoping for more radical efforts to shake Japan, the world's = #2 economy, out of its third recession in a decade and end the ongoing = deflationary cycle in which it finds itself. Conservative, "old guard", = Toshihiko Fukui will, however, be balanced by his two new Deputies = (Kazumasa Iwata from the Cabinet Office, and Toshiro Muto, former Vice = Finance Minister), who are expected to bring better connections with the = government, as well as more aggressive and radical approaches to Japan's = problems. The compromise appointments seem to this writer that change = will only come about rapidly and radically if Fukui's appointment is = purely face saving figure head, and BOJ policy will be set much more by = the new deputies. The fiscal year for everything Japanese is now a month = away, squaring up of the books, and writing off of bad loans, and = marking bank investment portfolios down to actual market value, could = get ugly quickly with the Nikkei having now given up all its recent = gains and slid under 8400. The continuing uncertainty over war against = Iraq will continue to weaken the US dollar and strengthen the yen, = despite recent "stealth" (please, how much stealth is there left in the = financial world anymore?) yen/dollar intervention by Japan. This hurts = Japanese exporters and the global competitiveness of the pricing on = their products. Domestic consumption within Japan continues to contract, = further hurting companies needing to increase volume even if the = deflation prevents raising prices. To date, I have seen very little = action on either the govt plans to buy back loans and rehabilitate the = borrowing company, or buying large chunks of the stock portfolios from = banks needing to build their capital reserves. I see no hope for an = economic recovery in Japan until such time as the banking industry = begins an honest assessment of their non-performing loans, declare those = in default to be in default, and either force the govt to begin buying = those loans and rehabilitate the company where possible, or else the = lending bank(s) force the company into bankruptcy and write off the = loan. And yes, this will also force a number of banks into bankruptcy = themselves, as their capital reserves, on paper, are sufficient but only = because of phony bookkeeping. There must also be an end to the cultural = practice of buying stock from the very companies they lend to, thus = adding to the bank loss when the company fails. Ultimately, I suspect = this will take a new regulation from the govt as it is so deeply = imbedded in culture. Unfortunately, I have little hope of this ever = happening unless and until the Nikkei falls well into the 7000 range, = and takes bank portfolios so low that even with the generous rules used = now they still fail to meet capital requirements, and themselves fail. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continues to be = meager and depressing, but in line with the reality of new highs, and = even stocks moving above their 200 dma. APOL - new handle forming?, volume increasing AVCT - continuation of a high handle?? BHE - short term staircase BLL - long handle on the cup ELTE - flat base, in my VR Fund, low priced, low liquidity, small cap GAF - B7 GGP - LLUR GIL - B8 HLTH - high handle IMO - decent cup, nice fundies IRM - b/o Friday on volume from a double bottom NSCN - LLUR, own and in my VR Fund, small cap PORT - LLUR RBK - B5 REP - high handle RVSN - 14 week c&h, volume drying up, low priced, low liquidity Happy Hunting, and keep your powder dry Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00B2_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
ECONOMICS
Economists started the week by cutting their = forecast for=20 this quarter from 2.6% growth to 2.2%, while also lowering the "fool" = year=20 forecast from 2.6% to 2.5%. Of course, that expectation for the year = includes=20 doing 3.6% in the 4th quarter, down from 4.2% originally. They saw = little change=20 in unemployment, and forecasted nearly a percent rise in lending rates, = which=20 could damage the housing market as mortgage rates go up as = well.
 
Growth in the 4th quarter 2002 GDP was revised = up from=20 0.7% originally reported, to 1.4%, expectations had been for a revision = to=20 1.0%.
 
Sales of existing homes jumped an unexpected 3% = in=20 January to a new record at an annual rate of 6.09 million from an = upwardly=20 revised rate of 5.91 million in December. The rate had been expected to = drop to=20 5.80 million. Inventories rose to a 4.5 month supply from a 4.3 month=20 supply.
 
Going the other way, sales of new homes fell = 15.2% in=20 January to an annual rate of 914,000 from 1.08 million in December. A = minor=20 decline to 1.05 million had been expected. While new home sales make up = only a=20 small portion of the total housing sector, they are crucial to the = continued=20 success of homebuilder stock prices.
 
In another contradictory signal, consumer = confidence=20 plunged to 64 in February from 78.8, hitting a nine year low (9 YEARS!!, = that's=20 worse than right after 9/11). Expected was a drop to only 77. The = magnitude of=20 the drop was mirrored in the expectations index, down to 65.6 from 81.1, = and in=20 the present situation index, down to 61.6 from 75.3.
 
Mostly mirroring this was Univ. of Michigan's = consumer=20 confidence report for February, which was revised up slightly to 79.9 = from 79.2,=20 but remains at a nine year low. Expectations were for no = change.
 
And just to confuse the picture more, January's = Durable=20 Goods report showed a gain of 3.3% while December's report was revised = down to=20 0.4% decline. A gain of only 1.3% had been expected for January. Biggest = gainer=20 was automotive, up over 10%.
 
New unemployment claims continued to rise, up = 417,000 for=20 the week, expected was a drop to 390K. The 4 week moving average = rose again=20 to 399,750 while continuing claims dropped slightly to 3.38 million from = 3.42=20 million.
 
In a prelude to next week's ISM manufacturing = production=20 report, the NAPM-Chicago report for February fell less than expected, to = 54.9=20 from 56. Expected was a drop to 52.5. Prices paid continued to rise = (don't=20 forget the spike in last month's PPI report) while the employment index = showed=20 layoffs continuing, but at a slower rate.
"M"
As I speculated on this topic last week, it was=20 questionable whether the two weeks of gains might be sustained. Now we = know, it=20 was not, another losing week and indexes struggling to stay in the = neighborhood=20 of their 20 day moving average. Charts look like we are just muddling = along,=20 going no where in particular, no leadership, money moving around but not = staying, volume remains light, lots of uncertainty yet not an avalanche = of=20 bearish sentiment either.  What breakouts do occur, even from = fundamentally=20 strong companies, also mostly fail quickly. The market pundits keep = suggesting=20 we will retest the October lows, so far I don't see evidence of that, = nor do I=20 see signs we are ready to start a sustained rally of any size. Economic = reports=20 this week were mixed at best, and did nothing to offset the bearish = reports of=20 last week. In particular, the data on new single family housing suggests = this=20 sector is finally slowing, even while existing housing remains strong. = The=20 builders may finally be ready for a correction, even tho past worries of = a=20 housing bubble have kept most from being overpriced. Iraq remains the = overriding=20 and compelling influence on all markets. Israel's market was up 2.5% in = Sunday=20 trading, I am sure a lot of that was due to Iraq destroying 4 (of over = 100) of=20 their missiles on Saturday, thus lowering the expectation of war just a = bit.=20 Until the issue of Iraq is resolved, I do not expect markets to reflect = their=20 fundamental nature, and right now the economic reports are simply not = strong=20 enough, any more than corporate earnings, to suggest the markets should = be=20 rallying even without the issue of Iraq.
JAPAN
The nomination of the new Governor for the Bank = of Japan=20 pleased few economists hoping for more radical efforts to shake Japan, = the=20 world's #2 economy, out of its third recession in a decade and end the = ongoing=20 deflationary cycle in which it finds itself. Conservative, "old guard",=20 Toshihiko Fukui will, however, be balanced by his two new Deputies = (Kazumasa=20 Iwata from the Cabinet Office, and Toshiro Muto, former Vice Finance = Minister),=20 who are expected to bring better connections with the government, as = well as=20 more aggressive and radical approaches to Japan's problems. The = compromise=20 appointments seem to this writer that change will only come about = rapidly and=20 radically if Fukui's appointment is purely face saving figure head, and = BOJ=20 policy will be set much more by the new deputies. The fiscal year for = everything=20 Japanese is now a month away, squaring up of the books, and writing off = of bad=20 loans, and marking bank investment portfolios down to actual market = value, could=20 get ugly quickly with the Nikkei having now given up all its recent = gains and=20 slid under 8400. The continuing uncertainty over war against Iraq will = continue=20 to weaken the US dollar and strengthen the yen, despite recent "stealth" = (please, how much stealth is there left in the financial world anymore?) = yen/dollar intervention by Japan. This hurts Japanese exporters and the = global=20 competitiveness of the pricing on their products. Domestic consumption = within=20 Japan continues to contract, further hurting companies needing to = increase=20 volume even if the deflation prevents raising prices. To date, I have = seen very=20 little action on either the govt plans to buy back loans and = rehabilitate the=20 borrowing company, or buying large chunks of the stock portfolios from = banks=20 needing to build their capital reserves. I see no hope for an economic = recovery=20 in Japan until such time as the banking industry begins an honest = assessment of=20 their non-performing loans, declare those in default to be in default, = and=20 either force the govt to begin buying those loans and rehabilitate the = company=20 where possible, or else the lending bank(s) force the company into = bankruptcy=20 and write off the loan. And yes, this will also force a number of banks = into=20 bankruptcy themselves, as their capital reserves, on paper, are = sufficient but=20 only because of phony bookkeeping. There must also be an end to the = cultural=20 practice of buying stock from the very companies they lend to, thus = adding to=20 the bank loss when the company fails. Ultimately, I suspect this will = take a new=20 regulation from the govt as it is so deeply imbedded in culture. = Unfortunately,=20 I have little hope of this ever happening unless and until the Nikkei = falls well=20 into the 7000 range, and takes bank portfolios so low that even with the = generous rules used now they still fail to meet capital requirements, = and=20 themselves fail.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 continues to be meager and depressing, but in line with the reality of = new=20 highs, and even stocks moving above their 200 dma.
 
APOL - new handle forming?, volume = increasing
AVCT - continuation of a high = handle??
BHE - short term staircase
BLL - long handle on the cup
ELTE - flat base, in my VR Fund, low priced, low = liquidity, small cap
GAF - B7
GGP - LLUR
GIL - B8
HLTH - high handle
IMO - decent cup, nice fundies
IRM - b/o Friday on volume from a double=20 bottom
NSCN - LLUR, own and in my VR Fund, small = cap
PORT - LLUR
RBK - B5
REP - high handle
RVSN - 14 week c&h, volume drying up, low = priced, low=20 liquidity
 
Happy Hunting, and keep your powder=20 dry
 
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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