From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #324 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, July 13 1998 Volume 02 : Number 324 In this issue: [CANSLIM] W.O.N.D.A. <--<< Rumor Control Alert [CANSLIM] Thanks for comments [CANSLIM] Define "Extended" Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Japanese election results [CANSLIM] Re: AVEI [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Japanese election results Re: [CANSLIM] My List Re: [CANSLIM] EGGS [CANSLIM] DELL [CANSLIM] Sell discipline Re: [CANSLIM] For Connie Mack Re: [CANSLIM] Sell discipline Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Nikkei Re: [CANSLIM] My List Re: [CANSLIM] Define "Extended" Re: [CANSLIM] Define "Extended" [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? [CANSLIM] DGO [CANSLIM] DGO Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? TIM Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 12 Jul 1998 22:35:58 -0700 (PDT) From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: [CANSLIM] W.O.N.D.A. <--<< Rumor Control Alert Usually WONDA stands for William O'Neil Direct Access. Its client server software where the client is on your desktop and the server is WON's private databases. Distributed Via a VirtualPrivateNetwork. WONDA is WON's gift to the most serious full time trader/infestor/money managers in the industry. It is very possibly the most advanced stock screening tool imaginable. What ever metrics you use to evaluate a stock, and whatever investing style you follow CANSLIM or otherwise there is no better tool than WONDA for graphical analysis of stocks. Imagine DailyGraphs on steriods programmed by einsteinian geniuses to the precise specifications of WON and his team of trusted analysts for the expressed purpose of screening stocks and graphically analysing them en mass and you come close to the utility of this work-of-art in the guise of investment software. WON has a massive database that is pruned and cared for by hand picked MBA's studying under the master. This is the easy to use software that large institutional investors can earn by trading through WON's brokerage and paying commissions to them. This is the tool used by the top traders at places like Fidelity. Not for the meek. joseph (ex WON technologist who misses his WONDA) On Sun, 12 Jul 1998, canslim-digest wrote: > canslim-digest Sunday, July 12 1998 Volume 02 : Number 323 > > Date: Sun, 12 Jul 1998 09:52:20 -0500 (CDT) > From: "Mike" > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] W.O.N.D.A.'s attractiveness > > Hi Group, > What's WONDA? > Mike > > > > On 07/11/98 04:43 PM dbphoenix said... > >< >and would pay for a top-notch screening service. > > > >Are you up to WONDA ? ;-) > > > >Walter>> > > > >You got the wrong guy, Walter. I use WOWS. Telescan has always given > >me a headache. But many people love it. > > > >--Db > > > > Date: Sun, 12 Jul 1998 17:19:18 +0200 > From: Johan Van Houtven > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] W.O.N.D.A.'s attractiveness > > >What's WONDA? > >Mike > > William O'Neil's Direct Access To Your Wallet. > > Could also be Willian O'Neil's Database Application or something like that. > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 04:57:07 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thanks for comments To Tom & Dave, Thanks for your suggestions on USNA and CTX. I spent part of the weekend building my first Excel spreadsheet to grade and rank stocks. It uses numbers put in by hand, mostly from www.morningstar.net and my IBD papers. I am trying to tune it now to pick sound CANSLIM candidates. To be honest, I have decided it's not worth the trouble to get "I" info, like % owned by institutionals, institutional sponsorship (proprietary IBD stat), or % owned by management. We'll see if this comes back to bite me. Richard - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 05:02:45 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] Define "Extended" Would anyone mind giving their definition of when a stock is extended? I prefer looking at weekly log charts, since IBD uses them and teaches pattern recognition using weeklies. Am I missing the train using weeklies? I used dailies before and seemed to incorrectly buy on single daily spikes rather than several days of heavy trading, as would be needed for an institution to execute a large order. Richard - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 08:33:24 -0400 (EDT) From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Japanese election results Jeff: You are a real "Connie's mention" On Sun, 12 Jul 1998, Jeffry White wrote: > > Back to lurking. > > > > Tom W > > > > :) !!! > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 07:43:59 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: AVEI Dan and Johan, Thanks, wonder why I had trouble getting a quote from BigCharts and ClearStation for the symbol. Another one of life's mysteries! Regards, Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 09:20:09 -0400 From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Japanese election results > Jeff: > > You are a real "Connie's mention" > > > > > On Sun, 12 Jul 1998, Jeffry White wrote: > > > > Back to lurking. > > > > > > Tom W > > > > > > > :) !!! Hey, if you like knee-jerking around with "newsflash", CNBC-style "noise" in your CANSLIM trading efforts, more power to you. Just hope you have the discipline to avoid dumping perfectly good stocks in a perfectly good CANSLIM "M" when you hear the ominous "opinions" from talking heads like some in this group. That's all. Regards, JW ("Connie's mention"??? ;)) - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 07:35:43 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My List Hi Peter- I like your list and information. One question, please. Your pivot points seem precise; how did you arrive at them? I don't get nearly so close when I try to find pivot points by eyeballing bigcharts. Thanks, TM - ---Peter Christiansen wrote: > > I am watching the following stocks. All are basing. All have good relative > strength. All have histories of beating earnings estimates. Earnings and > revenues for the last quarter were up significantly. Industry groups have > been acting well. The average volume was correct at the time the stock was > added to my list. > > Symbol Pivot Point Avg Daily Vol. > > ac 28.125 109200 > acf 36.625 186220 > anf 48.125 601733 > bosa 38.125 19030 > bzh 26.625 33450 > chb 30.125 227423 > clys 14.25 34190 > ctl 50.125 212263 > cui 49.125 80876 > dhi 24.125 407340 > forsf 20.25 88300 > fred 27.125 40460 > hh 25.125 39236 > hov 11.25 23243 > ilogy 16.125 57743 > jaii 19.25 116026 > kbh 33.75 408803 > len 34.50 422420 > lhsg 67.625 239840 > mast 30.625 304046 > mcy 68.125 100990 > mecn 12.375 30620 > myg 53.125 552996 > nsit 44.125 89776 > pmb 29.625 35700 > psql 25.375 341673 > purw 17.75 53080 > rxsd 39.125 724930 > scvl 14.75 48516 > seh 23.125 37570 > seic 72.125 58430 > smmt 17.25 96543 > stnrf 34.375 138016 > thnk 33.375 626843 > thqi 31.625 230920 > wstf 20.625 63378 > > Peter Christiansen > Chiang Mai - Thailand > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 14:10:49 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EGGS Saw an article discussing Egghead Software the other day (IBD?). They have "turned it around" since closing all of their stores (80?) and going solely Internet. Don't know the fundamentals, but it's been popping up on my *radar*. Dan On Sun, 12 Jul 1998 23:56:52 EDT, you wrote: :Anyoe following EGGS? Not a canslim type stock. : :In a message dated 98-07-06 23:59:52 EDT, you write: : :<< Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] BKS : Date: 98-07-06 23:59:52 EDT : From: Ssingh@AOL.com : Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com : Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com : To: canslim@lists.xmission.com :=20 : I do not disagree with you Anindo. Momentum players are winning now and= look : at what is going on with all the internet stocks. I bought EGGS a month= or so : ago and is way up today. I bought another momentum player this am: = ZAP.....! :=20 : Lucky I guess. :=20 : Regards :=20 : Surindra : >> : :- musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 11:06:37 -0700 From: Alan Friedman Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL Well, DELL continues to move higher following the cup and handle breakout last week...although shares outstanding and institutional holdings are higher than norm, whenever a true leader like DELL breaksout of a cup and handle, buy you must!!! The WOLF http://www.netword2000.com/wolf/wolf.htm - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 11:08:46 -0700 From: Alan Friedman Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell discipline When to sell??? Major Canslim question... I think Wm. O' Neil said it best: +25% within 8 weeks-hold for 6 months (of course, if the stock breaksdown-get out) +25% after 8 weeks-sell at 25% - -8% GET OUT You know, the stop at 8% used to bother me...but you know what? If you buy a Canslim stock at the right time, it should NOT drop 8% The WOLF http://www.netword2000.com/wolf/wolf.htm - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 08:18:43 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] For Connie Mack Connie Mack: I'm sorry I didn't save your post, just used colored pencils to transcribe your comments onto an IBD Industrials chart on June 15 which I have saved as a model. You not only explained what was happening at the time, but projected alternatives for the near future. I've tried to retrieve your comments (many times) from the archives, but can't get into canslim.9806 for some reason. I thought of your June posting when I listened to some of the talking heads this weekend -am trying to evaluate some comments (as I own DIA). 1. DOW looks a little toppy 2. DOW will peak at 9300 or so before another correction, (probably minor) I realize that this is topdown analysis and my impression is that traders prefer bottom up analysis so if you would rather not comment, I'll understand. TM - ---Tannis Malone wrote: > > Connie Mack > You gave such a clear explanation of the DOW last month. I used > colored pencils on my IBD graph and drew the lines you recommended. I > would appreciate another walk through on DOW interpretion if you don't > mind - at your convenience, of course. > > I'm reading the archives about the divergences you mention. I hope to > have some intelligent questions for you one of these days. > > Thank you for your generous insight. > > TM > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 09:36:40 -0600 From: Dan Sutton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sell discipline Alan, As an occasional participant in this list I appreciate any valid input or comments on the CANSLIM style or it's derivatives. Searching with DEJA news brought up some of your posts to the stock newsgroup. I'm sure you will find everyone here to be fairly cordial until there is a glimmer of spam or self promotion, then it gets ugly early....a recent example was the Hooters episode. Please continue to post, but only as it pertains to this particular investing style. Thanks - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 08:24:03 -0500 From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Nikkei Dave Cameron wrote: > I think it would be prudent to see what happens to the U.S. bond market > prior to the open of the equities market. If a lot of money is flowing > into bonds, this would be a sign for me that investors are fleeing techs. > At least that has been the trend of late on such announcements. History > often does not repeat. I heard a report on Bloomberg Radio that last week bond investment was up, wait, I think it was Bond Mutual Fund investment was up, stealing money from Stock Mutual funds. This may not be flight to safety as money moving from Stocks to Bonds (Non-Mutual funds) usually is... but then again I am a newbie to M... - -- Thomas A. Moulton, W2VY http://www.xanthus.net/w2vy - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 23:05:37 +0700 From: "Peter Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My List I just look for nearby resistance levels on daily charts. if the resistance is near a round number, say 34 7/8, I place the pivot point just above the round number. In this case 35 1/8. This is because stocks often times seem to find resistance and support at round numbers. Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand - -----Original Message----- From: Tannis Malone To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, July 13, 1998 9:37 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My List >Hi Peter- >I like your list and information. One question, please. Your pivot >points seem precise; how did you arrive at them? I don't get nearly >so close when I try to find pivot points by eyeballing bigcharts. > >Thanks, >TM > > > > > > > >---Peter Christiansen wrote: >> >> I am watching the following stocks. All are basing. All have good >relative >> strength. All have histories of beating earnings estimates. >Earnings and >> revenues for the last quarter were up significantly. Industry >groups have >> been acting well. The average volume was correct at the time the >stock was >> added to my list. >> >> Symbol Pivot Point Avg Daily Vol. >> >> ac 28.125 109200 >> acf 36.625 186220 >> anf 48.125 601733 >> bosa 38.125 19030 >> bzh 26.625 33450 >> chb 30.125 227423 >> clys 14.25 34190 >> ctl 50.125 212263 >> cui 49.125 80876 >> dhi 24.125 407340 >> forsf 20.25 88300 >> fred 27.125 40460 >> hh 25.125 39236 >> hov 11.25 23243 >> ilogy 16.125 57743 >> jaii 19.25 116026 >> kbh 33.75 408803 >> len 34.50 422420 >> lhsg 67.625 239840 >> mast 30.625 304046 >> mcy 68.125 100990 >> mecn 12.375 30620 >> myg 53.125 552996 >> nsit 44.125 89776 >> pmb 29.625 35700 >> psql 25.375 341673 >> purw 17.75 53080 >> rxsd 39.125 724930 >> scvl 14.75 48516 >> seh 23.125 37570 >> seic 72.125 58430 >> smmt 17.25 96543 >> stnrf 34.375 138016 >> thnk 33.375 626843 >> thqi 31.625 230920 >> wstf 20.625 63378 >> >> Peter Christiansen >> Chiang Mai - Thailand >> >> >> >> >> - >> >> > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 13:01:02 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Define "Extended" Richard, At 05:02 AM 7/13/98 -0500, you wrote: >Would anyone mind giving their definition of when a stock is extended? "Extended" refers to "extended from a valid base" following a breakout. A stock is extended when it is more than 10% past its buy point (typically the top of the prior base). Ideally you want to buy from the pivot point up to 5% past the pivot, but occasionally you might still buy a stock up to 10% past the pivot (buy point). It is generally accepted in CANSLIM that 10% is the absolute limit (with some the exception of some advanced techniques that are much more risky). It is not particularly unusual for a stock to breakout, move up 10-15% and then pull back 8-10%, Note that if you buy up 12% from the pivot and the stock pulls back, you are much more likely to have it hit your 8% stop and shake you out, before it moves on up. If is much less usual for a stock to breakout and move up 5% and then pull back 8-10% from there. So your chances of having your 8% stop hit are lower if you buy very close to the pivot point. To say it another way: a 10% - 15% variation in a stock's price as it advances is not unusual after it clears the base, but rarely do they pull back into the base after breaking out. Therefore, if you buy right at the top of the base rather than after the price is extended away from the base, then you are unlikely to get shaken out on a normal reaction. >I prefer looking at weekly log charts, since IBD uses them and teaches >pattern recognition using weeklies. Am I missing the train using weeklies? Yes, I think you are missing the train by exclusively using weeklies. I am a firm believer in using both dailies and weeklies. >I used dailies before and seemed to incorrectly buy on single daily spikes >rather than several days of heavy trading, as would be needed for an >institution to execute a large order. Actually, often the breakout does happen on a single daily spike (followed by additional heavy buying in the days that follow). So that is what you are looking for! The institutions will then continue to add to their position as it moves up (including after we would already say it was extended). This is what provides the fuel for the rocket. If you wait for it to show in the weekly charts, sometimes the first round of buying is done and the stock is just starting to retrace a bit. You can also sometimes look back in the basing pattern and see big buying spikes during the base. These always help me to feel more secure on the breakout (especially when the down days are mostly of much more limited volume). For an example of buying spikes during the base and follow on buying following the breakout - see the daily KTIE chart over the last year. It will really help if you have a chart that displays up volume as a green volume bar and down volume as a red bar. Then, for a different perspective, do the same thing with a weekly chart. They both give similar info - but they really work best when read together. If I had to choose between daily and weekly and live with just one, it would have to be the daily - which is why O'Neils Canslim selection product is Daily Graphs (rather than Weekly charts). But, the reason he does not give both is no doubt because of the expense of producing so much paper each week and mailing it out. Of course, now with web charting, you can always double check both just before you buy or sell. Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 10:20:48 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Define "Extended" <> Weekly charts are good for selecting stocks to watch, but only a long-term investor would use them for entry points. As you say, one has to go to the dailies for that. But as you also say, they work best when read together. For example, if one is using the MACDw/SSd screen we've been discussing, and he's finding that he's regularly just a little late on the dailies, he can also begin his screen by using daily charts to look for stocks whose stochastic is just turning up, then backing up to the weekly to make sure that the flow is going in his direction, i.e., that the MACD and/or stochastics aren't turning or haven't turned negative. This can help the individual to make that buy closer to the base rather than be tempted to chase a stock that broke out two or three days earlier. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 14:08:04 -0500 From: Bill Daniels Subject: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? As a relative newcomer to th CANSLIM discipline I have read a number of posts to the mailing list about pivot points or pivot prices. Would someone please point to a reference in HTMMIS 2nd Ed? Or would someone explain how to to define the pivot price, when to be on the lookout for a pivot, and how to calculate the pivot? Determining this price seems crucial to a proper CANSLIM entry. I should know; I've been burnt a couple of time by getting in a little late and being kicked out with the 8% rule. Thanks very much, Bill Daniels - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 15:27:58 -0700 From: Alan Friedman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? The pivot point on a cup and handle is the highest price along the handle...once that is broken by 1/16th-and the volume seems above average-you can buy... On a flat base, the highest price of the base should be taken out. Again, use judgment as to volume. The WOLF http://www.netword2000.com/wolf/wolf.htm - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 13:36:38 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? Huh? So a 1/16th point change to the upside of some magic number and I should be buying in? I don't remember reading _that_ in HTMMIS. Whatever happened to breakouts of +5% on 1.5x ADV? At 03:27 PM 7/13/98 , you wrote: >The pivot point on a cup and handle is the highest price along the >handle...once that is broken by 1/16th-and the volume seems above >average-you can buy... > >On a flat base, the highest price of the base should be taken out. >Again, use judgment as to volume. > >The WOLF >http://www.netword2000.com/wolf/ wolf.htm > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 14:11:50 -0700 From: Kom Tukovinit Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? I don't know about the 1/16th point rule, but I don't know about the 5%+ rule either. I thought it was breaking up above the handle at 1.5x ADV. However, often by experience, by the time I confirmed that the 1.5x volume has already occured, it's already too late. Therefore, it is sometimes necessary for me to jump the gun and buy when I THINK the volume is going to be more than x1.5 ADV on that day. kom Tim Fisher wrote: > Huh? So a 1/16th point change to the upside of some magic number and I should > be buying in? I don't remember reading _that_ in HTMMIS. Whatever happened to > breakouts of +5% on 1.5x ADV? - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 17:32:36 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? As you say, you do definitely need the 150% of adv (with the one exception that comes to mind being the big caps like DELL - which is a whole 'nother subject since the big caps also don't meet the S in Canslim). However, I do agree, that once you have identified the pivot point, you only need to exceed it by 1/16 and then the idea is to buy as close to that price as possible. The 5% upside from the pivot is the range in which buying is fully allowable under all circumstances. Beyond 5% is a bit riskier and requires a good wind at your back (big Leader, strong Market, huge b/o volume, amazing News, etc). And, of course, beyond 10% the price is too extended for purchase. Occasionally, during the base, a stock will have multiple "fake outs" which sort of look like a breakout and exceed the pivot by 1/16, 1/8, or a 1/4, only to immediately return to the base. There is an art to effectively recognizing the correct breakout attempt and buying in on the "real breakout" so as not to get whipsawed. For this reason, I have heard some folks say they prefer to see it clear the pivot by a bit, but I believe the added risk far exceeds the benefits. Fortunately less than 50% of all CS stocks show this fakeout behavior (I would guess it to be less than 20% actually). Often these fakeouts have low or barely adequate (150%) volume. A genuine breakout sometimes has only 150%, but I would guess that more than 1/2 the time it is 200%, 300%, 500%, or more of adv. And rarely can one catch it at that 1/16 above (although I love to do it) ... usually by the time you are alerted to the b/o, the stock is already 1/4 or 1/2 past the pivot. Hope this helps. Best regards, Craig At 01:36 PM 7/13/98 -0700, you wrote: >Huh? So a 1/16th point change to the upside of some magic number and I should >be buying in? I don't remember reading _that_ in HTMMIS. Whatever happened to >breakouts of +5% on 1.5x ADV? > >At 03:27 PM 7/13/98 , you wrote: >>The pivot point on a cup and handle is the highest price along the >>handle...once that is broken by 1/16th-and the volume seems above >>average-you can buy... >> >>On a flat base, the highest price of the base should be taken out. >>Again, use judgment as to volume. >> >>The WOLF >>http://www.netword2000.com/wolf/ >wolf.htm >> > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 17:44:58 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? At 02:11 PM 7/13/98 -0700, you wrote: >...(snip) >often by experience, by the time I confirmed that the 1.5x volume has already >occured, it's already too late. Therefore, it is sometimes necessary for me >to jump the gun and buy when I THINK the volume is going to be more than x1.5 >ADV on that day. I agree, in fact, there have been occassions in which by 3:00, I doubt the stock will really make the 150%. And then by 3:45, it has a final big buying surge for the day and ends up doing close to 200% of adv. Meanwhile, I bought the stock at say 10:15 - early in the day, just after the pivot was passed and have been worried all day that the volume would not be there. It's funny to worry and yet be ahead on a stock - but that's how it happens sometimes. Other times, I have simply admitted that I must have made a mistake and sold the stock when the necessary volume did not appear. Sometimes only to buy it back the next day as the volume shows up. These examples are more the exception than the rule however. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 17:46:36 -0400 From: "Robert Miller" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO Having trouble with email. Sorry if this is a duplicate. For those interested, I got an email from customer support today concerning custom screening. Following are parts of that email: Providing a custom screen interface for Daily Graphs Online is on the priority list for Daily Graphs Online 3.1 development, but, as noted before, this entails a great deal of programming, and will require a new software release. Printed Product Company Index list of 2,800 stocks into a spreadsheet. You >can do this by simply clicking the Excel icon in the report window. Once you >have done this you can sort by Price, Relative Strength, Acc/Dis grade, or >EPS rank to filter out stocks and narrow down the universe for your own >selection of stocks. These items are updated daily. > > Also, be watching, as this report will be modified in a few weeks. We are >adding two more columns. These columns will change each day and we will >provide you with our most requested data items including Group Relative >Strength, P/E, 52 week high and low. All of these items can be exported and >sorted as well. Rob - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 17:39:51 -0400 From: "Robert Miller" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO For those interested, I got an email from customer support today = concerning custom screening. Following are parts of that email: =20 Providing a custom screen interface for Daily Graphs Online is on the priority list for Daily Graphs Online = 3.1 development, but, as noted before, this entails a great deal of = programming, and will require a new software release.=20 Printed Product Company Index list of 2,800 stocks into a spreadsheet. = You >can do this by simply clicking the Excel icon in the report window. = Once you >have done this you can sort by Price, Relative Strength, Acc/Dis grade, = or >EPS rank to filter out stocks and narrow down the universe for your own >selection of stocks. These items are updated daily. > > Also, be watching, as this report will be modified in a few weeks. We = are >adding two more columns. These columns will change each day and we will >provide you with our most requested data items including Group Relative >Strength, P/E, 52 week high and low. All of these items can be exported = and >sorted as well. Rob - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 14:46:10 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? HTMMIS doesn't actually say 5%. It does say significant advance or some such thing. 5% is an easy test of the validity of the breakout; even then it= could totally fail. Else how the heck could you tell it was a "breakout"?=20 I'd like to see the passage quoted anyway. I need my HTMMIS back!=20 At 02:11 PM 7/13/98 , you wrote: >I don't know about the 1/16th point rule, but I don't know about the 5%+= rule >either.=A0 I thought it was breaking up above the handle at 1.5x ADV.=A0= However, >often by experience, by the time I confirmed that the 1.5x volume has= already >occured, it's already too late.=A0 Therefore, it is sometimes necessary for= me to >jump the gun and buy when I THINK the volume is going to be more than x1.5 ADV on >that day. > >kom > >Tim Fisher wrote: > >> Huh? So a 1/16th point change to the upside of some magic number and I should >> be buying in? I don't remember reading _that_ in HTMMIS. Whatever= happened to >> breakouts of +5% on 1.5x ADV? > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 18:53:35 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? TIM Tim Fisher wrote: > > HTMMIS doesn't actually say 5%. It does say significant advance or some such > thing. 5% is an easy test of the validity of the breakout; even then it could > totally fail. Else how the heck could you tell it was a "breakout"? > > I'd like to see the passage quoted anyway. I need my HTMMIS back! > > At 02:11 PM 7/13/98 , you wrote: > >I don't know about the 1/16th point rule, but I don't know about the 5%+ rule > >either. I thought it was breaking up above the handle at 1.5x ADV. However, > >often by experience, by the time I confirmed that the 1.5x volume has already > >occured, it's already too late. Therefore, it is sometimes necessary for me > to > >jump the gun and buy when I THINK the volume is going to be more than x1.5 > ADV > on > >that day. > > > >kom > > > >Tim Fisher wrote: > > > >> Huh? So a 1/16th point change to the upside of some magic number and I > should > >> be buying in? I don't remember reading _that_ in HTMMIS. Whatever happened > to > >> breakouts of +5% on 1.5x ADV? > > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - > > Original Recipient: JWHITE.MHS @ TJOSLIN Tim F., I'm most sympathetic to a guy who's lost his HTTMIS, so here ya go, buddy: "When a stock charges through an upside buy point, which Livermore referred to as "the pivot point or line of least resistance," the day's volume should increase by at least 50% above normal. It is not uncommon for a new market leader to increase its daily volume 500% to 1000% during a major breakout. "The winning individual investor can afford to wait and begin buying at these precise pivot points. This is where the real move starts and all the exciting action originates. If you try to buy before this point, you will be premature and in many cases the stock will never get to its buy point. If you buy more than 5% to 10% past the point you are too late. "Your object is never to buy at the cheapest price or near the low but to begin buying at exactly the right time. This means you have to learn to wait for a stock to move up and trade at your buypoint before making an initial committment. "Pivot buy points are not necessarily at a stock's old high; many occur 5% to 10% below a stock's former high point. Sometimes you can get a slight head start by drawing a down trendline across certain peak points in the stock's price pattern and begin your purchase as the trendline is broken. However, you have to be right in your chart and stock analysis to get away with this." HTMMIS, 2d Ed. at pp. 164-165. Recent examples of pivot point buys on stocks I've notice include LHSPF and DELL. Both occurred on the same day last week, I think. Can anyone spot the day and price at which an intraday buy would have been appropriate for DELL and LHSPF under this passage of HTTMIS? What if you were to add a pinch of volume-dry-up-in-the-handle analysis, and then add in a little touch of slow-stochastic/oversold action? Ooo, la-la!! Where would you enter then? Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 15:06:24 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How do I determine pivot price? <> I can't give you page numbers, but at least some of the information you're looking for can be found in Chapter 14 on chart reading. As far as definitions go, you'll find that most people use the terms pivot point, buy point, breakout point (or price), and even pivot buypoint interchangeably. There's nothing necessarily wrong with that, but it can be confusing, particularly when two people are talking about two entirely separate points or events and are using the same word or words to describe them. Therefore, separating all of them may help you to clarify your thinking and how you look at charts and chart patterns. Consider defining the pivot point as the point at which the stock or market or group or whatever changes direction. With the OTC, this took place on June 15th. This is usually determined in hindsight since you can't know whether a change in direction has actually taken place until the new direction is confirmed. This may or may be be accompanied by volume or even by a change in sentiment, but it is clear from the chart that it has taken place. The breakout point is the point at which the stock or whatever breaks out of something, and this is usually accompanied by significant volume. In other words, the stock can't just drift up like a wayward balloon and be said to be "breaking out". It has to break OUT OF something, i.e., a technical pattern such as a rectangular base, a triangle of some sort, a trading range, etc. A breakout has to be decisive. If it is not, then it will likely run out of gas very quickly. The buypoint depends entirely on where you prefer to buy. This in turn depends on how you define yourself as a long-term, intermediate-term, or short-term investor, on how aggressive or conservative you are, on how much time you can spend sitting in front of your computer, on how disciplined you are with regard to setting and triggering stops, etc. For example, a stock may be "breaking out" of a handle that is 10% away from a new high. Is that handle breakout your buypoint, or do you wait for the new high? If you wait for the new high, how much risk is there that you'll be more than 8% away from support? Would the more conservative choice be to wait for another "breakout" to a new high or would you feel as though you were chasing the stock? With the OTC, for example, some would consider clearing the middle of the W at 1800 as a buypoint. Others would wait until the right shoulder was cleared at 1875. Still others would wait for an intraday high. And still others would wait for the all-time high. And there are those who would prefer to wait for a base to form somewhere. All of these points are debatably "buy"points, and you could listen to the various camps argue about it until the next correction. The point at which to buy the stock is not the simple matter that it's rumored to be. That's why so many people turn to technical analysis for the edge. If you can, after all, purchase a stock in anticipation of the breakout, then extensions and pullbacks and all the rest of it are moot considerations. But if you don't want to become involved in all of that, one simple task you can perform is to determine in advance exactly what it is the market or stock will have to do in order to prove to you that you are wrong. Will the stock have to fall 5%? 8%? One point? Two? Drop below the previous day's low? Drop below price support or a moving average or a trendline of some sort? If whatever you choose as your proof is just too far away from your tentative buypoint for comfort, then don't buy the stock and wait for the next opportunity. Or watch it in the event that it pulls back enough to make you feel more comfortable about entering the position (of course, you can in that event talk yourself in believing that the stock is now weak and who wants to buy a weak stock, but that's another subject). Hope this helps. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #324 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.