From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #328 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, July 17 1998 Volume 02 : Number 328 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] "M" [CANSLIM] Finance - Full Closing Bell @ 07/16/98 (7 stories) Re: [CANSLIM] re: TC 2000 Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Daily Graphs information... [CANSLIM] B/O on JAII Re: [CANSLIM] B/O on JAII [CANSLIM] Thursday IBD article on market movers [CANSLIM] Spam count Re: [CANSLIM] Fwd: Imperial Bancorp Posts 51% Increase In 2nd-Quarter Net Income Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs [CANSLIM] Dell DGO info [CANSLIM] Re: [NOCANSLIM] Instit Investors [CANSLIM] "M" - Frank Re: [CANSLIM] re: TC 2000 Re: [CANSLIM] Another IBD article.latest sells of top funds Re: [CANSLIM] Spam count Re: [CANSLIM] Thursday IBD article on market movers RE: [CANSLIM] Spam count Re: [CANSLIM] Spam count RE: [CANSLIM] Spam count Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Daily Graphs information... Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs [CANSLIM] delayed charts [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS [CANSLIM] Fwd: Finance - Midday Update @ 07/17/98 Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 19:16:49 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" At 06:07 AM 7/16/98 -0400, you wrote: >Reversal-type "distribution day" in the NYSE and SP500 yesterday. Look >fairly benign, but worth a look. > >Thanks for the link, Frank, and the group comments. Very strange >behavior with such a powerful group of "follow through days" off the >6/15 low. Got a full plate away from my screen this week, but check the >sentiment in IBD this morning. Last week we had 47% Bulls vs. 30% >Bears. >JW > Todays bulls @ 52% and da bears are weighing in @ 24%. Yesterday the percentages were as you indicated above. Does the IBD change these on thursday only? Where do they get the numbers from? I know, proprietary! Also, these numbers are much different than Barrons posts in its weekly. For instance, from Saturdays Barrons: Investors Intelligence: Bulls = 41.7% Bears = 31.7% Correction = 26.6% Consensus Index: Bulls = 51% AAII Index: Bulls = 36% Bears = 20% Neutral = 44% Market Vane: Bulls = 65% IBD lists the price premiums and trading volume in Puts/Calls, but a graphic of the ratio is also available at the same link mentioned earlier. http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentPC.html I've begun to get a better feel for sentiment just watching the threads here and on the AOL canslim forum. I haven't followed the IBD numbers closely, but will pay more attention in the future. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 21:21:49 -0400 (EDT) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" I thought this article from tomorrow's investor's daily might be useful to the readers of the mailing list. Deepak - -- Watch What The Daily Market Charts Are Telling You Date: 7/17/98 Author: Nancy Gondo So you've begun maintaining your portfolio of stocks and have a few profits - and maybe a loss - under your belt. Give yourself a pat on the back. But wait a minute. Have you been watching the direction of the broad general market? If your answer is no, well, you've won only half the battle by learning good stock-picking skills. At least 50% of success in investing comes from understanding what's going on in the market. But for those of you who already are following the market, here's a refresher course. Studies show that 75%, or three out of four of your stocks, will get hit when the market is in a downtrend. It's hard to expect gains when the general market is declining. That's why it's crucial to have your sell rules set in stone. By deciding in advance that you'll sell any stock that falls 8% below your purchase price, you can safeguard yourself against potentially large losses when the market turns down. The only way to understand what the market is doing every day is to watch what the market averages are doing. On the Markets Charts page each day, IBD publishes the Nasdaq composite, S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average ee Page A25 today). The market has been in an uptrend since June 16, so the next change in direction will be down. No one knows when that will be, but here are the main warning signs to look for: Churning. Churning, or heavy trading volume without upward price progress, is an early warning of a market top. Check the index graphs on the Markets Charts page each day. The bars represent trading days; the small horizontal line through each bar is the day's close. At the bottom of each graph you'll see volume levels for each session. Your second chance to recognize the top: a day or two of churning, followed by a few down days, and a failed attempt to rally. A failed rally happens when the turnaround attempt follows through on the third, fourth or fifth rally day on lower volume than the day before, a smaller advance than the prior day, or if the market average gains back less than half of the initial drop from its high to its low. Piercing the moving average. Take a look at the Markets Charts page. IBD provides you with a 200-day moving average line for the three indexes. The moving average is calculated by taking the average of closing prices over 200 days, then plotting it on a graph. When the index stays above its 200-day moving average, that's a positive sign. But beware if the index starts heading toward this trendline and doesn't bounce back off of it. On June 15, the Nasdaq composite looked like it might be ready to pierce its trendline. But the next day, the index rose more than 37 points on heavier volume. It's since rallied back into new high ground. Had the Nasdaq continued through its 200-day line, however, the warning signs would have flashed on. Faltering leaders. Keeping an eye on the IBD Industry Prices list and Groups With The Greatest Percentage Of Stocks Making New Highs can also help you determine when a bull market might be faltering. When many of the price leaders begin to top, that could point to weakness of the overall market. You might see bases (chart patterns since a stock's last high) that have wide and loose patterns. Some stocks will drop in price and be unable to rally more than a few points from its lows of the correction. One cause may be a dramatic slowdown of earnings growth. Shifting from growth to defensive stocks. Jittery investors will often move their money from growth stocks to defensive plays when they sense weakness in the general market. Defensive sectors include utilities, food and consumer products, and financials -staples that people will always need. So stay alert if you start to see these groups, with companies such as Procter & Gamble, Gillette and Coca Cola, making new highs or rising on the Industry Prices list. To the left of the three major indexes each day are seven sector indexes. On Tuesdays and Fridays, IBD prints the Defensive Sector index. When this index is on the rise, it's a good indication that money is moving into the ''safe haven'' stocks. Investors could be anticipating a correction or a bear market. During bull markets, stocks often start the trading day a bit lower, but end the session with a strong advance. But in bear markets, stocks tend to open strongly in the morning and close weaker by the time trading ends. If you see a few warning signs, don't wait around for someone to tell you the general market is topping. Sell as soon as a stock also violates your sell rules. (C) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily, Inc. Metadata: PG G KO I/2840 I/2844 I/2086 E/IBD E/MMUT E/SN2 - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 18:50:20 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Finance - Full Closing Bell @ 07/16/98 (7 stories) Looks like they shorted it then leaked it. Guess there will be a big party at Salomon tonight! >* A potential merger of two giants of the U.S. health care > business, MCKESSON CORP and HBO AND CO, fell apart late Wednesday > amid angry charges of a damaging leak by investment banker Salomon > Smith Barney. HBO CEO Charles McCall said in an interview with > Reuters that Salomon, a TRAVELERS GROUP INC. unit, leaked the > deal, causing a sell-off in HBO shares. McCall stopped short of > blaming the deal's collapse on the Salomon leak, but he said HBO > shareholders were damaged by it. "We lost over $1 bln worth of > market cap yesterday because of their leak on that. But I think > the deal had basically broken up before that," McCall said. > (Reuters 11:49 PM ET 07/15/98) For the full text story, see > http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2555094443-fc2 > >* Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said it raised its share price target > on MCKESSON CORP to $97 from $90 following the collapse of merger > talks with HBO AND CO. Analyst David Risinger maintains strong buy > rating on McKesson. EPS forecasts for 1998 at $1.80, and for 1999 > at $2.25, remain unchanged. Analyst Marie Rossi maintains strong > buy rating on HBO, and left EPS estimates of $0.67 for 1998 and > $0.87 for 1999 unchanged. Price target also left unchanged at $36. > (Reuters 11:01 AM ET 07/16/98) For the full text story, see > http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2555101500-765 > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 22:37:39 -0400 From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] re: TC 2000 Neil V. Himber wrote: > > Hi Al: > You posted a message on 5/9/98 about TC200. I answered their > advertisement "Try It Free" offer a few weeks ago and I have received a > copy of their version 4.0 for Windows 95, on CD-ROM. I have installed > it and downloaded using their 800 number. I'm confused about some > things however. > > You stated in your message that you had tracked 80-100 stocks for about > $10 per month. Later in your message you state that TC200 costs $2.49 > per day, which comes out to considerably more than $10 per month. Why > the difference? There are two versions of TC2000, DOS and Windows. With the DOS version you pay $.005 per stock per day for end-of-day data--with a cap of $1.00 no matter how many stocks you download. 80 stocks X $.005/day X 22 market days = $8.80/mo. With the Windows version you pay a flat rate of $2.49 per day for all stocks and indexes no matter how often you download each day. > Also, since IBD scans and ranks stocks, and posts the results in the > paper each day, why would I want to duplicate their efforts and set up > my own screen filters? Because with TC2000 sort 8,000 stocks in less than 5 seconds for far more criteria than published in IBD. > The strength of Daily Graphs (I'm a novice but I was a beta tester for > the online version) was that the graphs clearly indicated when a stock > was extended to far beyond the 200 day moving average. I can't > determine how to interprete this info in TC2000? Just set up one of your stock price screens for 50 and 200 day MAs and what you see will be identical to the printed version of DG. I imagine the DG online chart is similar. You can set up to 12 different time frames (daily, weekly, etc.) and 36 screens per stock, with several TA indicators per screen. I'm guessing spending some time studying the Worden notes and reading up on the various indicators would benefit you (click on Help/Indicators/Available indicators). Then go back and examine a bunch of charts using the pre-set indicators and time frames until you decide how you want to redesign them. Also, try playing around with the various scans/sorts and (using edit) see how they put them together. You can cerate a fairly decent CANSLIM scan, but without "N" and "I." > I'm trying to decide if TC2000 is a more economical way for me to do > technical analysis than Daily Graphs. Clearly the DOS version of TC2000 is less expensive than the Windows version or DG. But whether it is more economical depends on your needs and ability to use the available tools. DG provides more fundamental data and it fits the CANSLIM method better. The DOS version of TC2000 provides no fundamentals. For me, the Windows version is more economical because I can make higher profits with it--your mileage may vary. You can make serious money with the DOS version too, but you miss all of the stocks you didn't buy the data for. Of course, the very least expensive method would be to use no-charge online facilities if you've got enough time to spend doing that. > Thanks, > > Neil Himber I hope this helps you. Al French alfrench@erols.com - -- - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 23:01:42 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Daily Graphs information... Jeff, I don't have access to the online anymore and only am getting the Green book monthly. This info is from the June 19th edition, so it is a bit old. Maybe someone can update some of the changes. Group: Computer-Mini/Micro 652 mil shares, 542 mil float Avg Daily Vol 15.8 mil (this was at the bottom of the cup, so is likely low by a little bit). Growth rate 95% Debt 1% 42.8 x book value Funds own 18% Banks own 8% Mgmt owns 17% GRS 93 EPS 99 RS 97 U/D 1.0 Timeliness B Short Interest 1.7 days trading Acc/Dist B Ret on equity 79% Fiscal Yr End - Jan EPS Due Date 8/19 (for July Qtr) Prior 4 qtrs EPS growth = 107%, 70%, 60%, 63% Prior 4 qtrs Revenue growth = 67%, 58%, 55%, 51% Prior 5 years EPS 94 = -.07 95 = .21 96 = .33 97 = .68 98 = 1.28 99 = 1.90 EST +48% Top 5 others in group: CYI RS 93, EPS 32 AAPL RS 92, EPS 75 GTW RS 92, EPS 61 CPQ RS 62, EPS 66 Sales in most recent qtr 3920 million (~4 billion). EPS in most current qtr = .44 EPS in July Qtr last year = .29 Comments: Hard to see where GRS of 93 comes from, but ok. Note that since this is the bottom of the cup, some items such as U/D and Accum/Dist are likely much different. Thanks again for sponsering the list. Best regards, Craig At 03:15 PM 7/16/98 -0600, you wrote: >Anyone with access to Daily Graphs, > >I am interested in getting the Daily Graph information for Dell. Can someone >please lookup the CANSLIM information for Dell? > >Best Regards, > >Jeff > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 23:39:01 -0400 From: "anthony boone" Subject: [CANSLIM] B/O on JAII I have been following JAII for 2 months, bot and sold once for a 5% profit. I think JAII is a buy : 1-closed above previous high, on high volume,(7/15/98) 2-closed second day, up on light volume(7/16/98) 3-new support level at 19 has been established. any comments? anthony - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 04:18:52 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] B/O on JAII On Thu, 16 Jul 1998 23:39:01 -0400, you wrote: :I have been following JAII for 2 months, bot and sold once for a 5% :profit. =20 : : :I think JAII is a buy : :1-closed above previous high, on high volume,(7/15/98) :2-closed second day, up on light volume(7/16/98) :3-new support level at 19 has been established. : :any comments? : :anthony : Looking at the chart, I don't see where you can think that a new support level has been established at 19. In fact, the chart suggests to me that there is no established support level for this stock. Positive earnings news apparently precipitated a rally beginning 4/29 that lasted a month. At that point the stock went into a 3 week slide that looks pretty scary -- losing around 40%, and looking like a real shakeout. I think you have to watch your volume and price action on this one to know if and when to get in and out. If anything, today's failure to continue the "b/o" (the volume's there, but the stock retreated .25) suggests that the pivot point at 19 1/4 that Peter Christiansen suggested is indeed the resistance that must be really breached, and for my money, this hasn't happened. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 06:42:27 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thursday IBD article on market movers Anyone see Thursday's IBD article on page A3, "Stars of Market Rally: Internet, IPO, Breakout Stocks"? Scanning the list of 47 stocks (with gains from "late June" -- 23 June?? -- of 39-93%), only 6 had EPS ranks of 80 or more. Including those with EPS ranks 70 or more totals 16 out of 47. One could say CANSLIM was designed to improve investment odds, but it seems to have missed the boat with these latest fast burners. I believe we have discussed the utility of EPS ranks in the past and found them to be somewhat lacking, whereas RS is more useful? Jim O'Shaugnessy's "What Works on Wall Street" is keen on RS, seeing it as a major component of top stock selection strategies. On the EPS side, WON likes quarterly, yr on yr EPS growth of 25%+, accelerating in the two latest quarters. I'm wondering if the EPS rank itself might not be a good gauge of earnings, or at least redundant for those of us checking quarterly numbers. Here are the top ten on the list of 47, in name / EPS rank / % change format: CD Warehouse / 98 / 93% Source Media / 2 / 90% Inktomi / 2 / 84% Starwood Financial / 61 / 84% PC Connection / 88 / 71% Netgravity / 9 / 63% Cablevision Systems / 60 / 61% Software.Net / 1 / 58% Intervoice / 53 / 55% Labor Ready / 87 / 55% This list shows three of the top ten with EPS ranks > 80. Remember for the list as a whole, it's 6 for 47, although the last three are in the middle of the pack, at least. Richard - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 06:43:15 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Spam count Has anyone else in the group noticed an increase in spam over the last week? When I got back into town last night, I was shocked to find almost 20% of my mail was spam (this is a huge increase over the normal 1 or 2 per week that I had been receiving). I only post messages to one group, this one. I have not replied to or answered any questionnaire or on-line forms. It appears to me that our list is being harvested by someone. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 05:53:41 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fwd: Imperial Bancorp Posts 51% Increase In 2nd-Quarter Net Income Tim: In a similar vein TMBS, reported earnings yesterday at $.22 per share versus an expected $.18 per share and didn't move all day. Ciao, rolatzi - ---Tim Fisher wrote: > > IMP has been basing for a long long time, I once owned it and made some > not-bad > money on it. Still makes my CASLI Killer Scan. In fact it's been making my > scans for at least a year. Reported today but not much reaction. maybe it's > time for it to jump off that base. Then again maybe not. Beat estimates by 3 > cents (40 vs 37). Beware when a co. like HBOC beats estimates by a penny and > tanks. I got out even on that _former_ LLUR... > > > > >Imperial Bancorp (NYSE:IMP) > > > >   Imperial Bancorp - Los Angeles > >   2nd Quar June 30: > >                      1998            1997 > >Inc cont op        $16,567,000    $11,091,000 > >Inc dis op                 ...       (132,000) > >Net income          16,567,000     10,959,000 > >Avg shrs (basic)    39,712,590     38,760,933 > >Avg shrs (diluted)  41,458,533     40,461,222 > >Shr earns (basic) > > Inc cont op               .42            .29 > > Inc dis op                ...           (.01) > > Net income                .42            .28 > >Shr earns (diluted) > > Inc cont op               .40            .27 > > Inc dis op                ...            ... > > Net income                .40            .27 > >Loan loss prvsn     14,127,000      4,427,000 > >   Figures in parentheses are losses. > >   Imperial Bancorp (IMP) reported second-quarter net interest income of > >$65.1 million, compared with $47.8 million for the year-ago second > >quarter. > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 09:26:59 -0400 From: phyllis robinson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs Is it too late to get in on TMBS @27? Is it too far extended? Thanks,phyllis > d have been irrelevant since > stochastics don't apply to trending stocks. The daily MACD doesn't > look toppy until April either. By then you've already more than > doubled your money, so you can afford to let it pull back a bit and > perhaps buy more (the weekly MACD hasn't topped out yet). As far as > 4/28 goes, IMO the stock didn't give a buy signal since March until a > few days ago when the daily MACD turned up again. > > t 20% leeway from 10, but if you bought at 4-something, so what? > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 09:49:30 -0400 From: "Robert Miller" Subject: [CANSLIM] Dell DGO info Jeff, I took Craigs post and updated the numbers. These are current as of 7/16. "*" indicates updated info. Group: Computer-Mini/Micro *644 mil shares, 534.5 mil float *Avg Daily Vol 16.4 million Growth rate 95% Debt 1% *50.15x book value *Funds own 19% Banks own 8% Mgmt owns 17% *GRS 88 EPS 99 *RS 98 *U/D 1.3 *Timeliness A 8Short Interest 2.0 days trading *Acc/Dist A Ret on equity 79% Fiscal Yr End - Jan EPS Due Date 8/19 (for July Qtr) Prior 4 qtrs EPS growth = 107%, 70%, 60%, 63% Prior 4 qtrs Revenue growth = 67%, 58%, 55%, 51% Prior 5 years EPS 94 = -.07 95 = .21 96 = .33 97 = .68 98 = 1.28 *99 = 2.05 EST +60% Top 5 others in group: CYI RS 93, EPS 32 AAPL RS 92, EPS 75 GTW RS 92, EPS 61 CPQ RS 62, EPS 66 Sales in most recent qtr 3920 million (~4 billion). EPS in most current qtr = .44 EPS in July Qtr last year = .29 Rob - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 06:54:26 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: [NOCANSLIM] Instit Investors Here's another site: http://www.dimgroup.com/cartoon3.html TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 21:00:41 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Frank > Todays bulls @ 52% and da bears are weighing in @ 24%. > Yesterday the percentages were as you indicated above. > Does the IBD change these on thursday only? > Where do they get the numbers from? I know, proprietary! > Those are very unfortunate numbers, in my view. We are right back close to where we sat in late March and early April. Certainly time to start watching for and paying attention to distribution. However, this thing could run until the sentiment numbers surpass 5 year marks (bears set in April) before it's time to pull the plug for cash. Not sure where the numbers come from in IBD, but they are updated only on Thursday. Know what you mean by AOL, Motley Fool and SI threads. When you start seeing alot of hot air, crowds flocking to the hot stocks, etc., everybody talking about DELL (which I happen to hold a ton of options on, along with LU), it's almost as good an indicator of sentiment as the IBD numbers. I actually used to check boards and threads on the CANSLIM stocks I was interested in. If there was too much activity, I didn't buy. Seemed to help screen out the "false breakouts". BOL for distribution. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 09:55:59 -0400 From: Robert Bomba <73223.2767@compuserve.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] re: TC 2000 >> There are two versions of TC2000, DOS and Windows. With the DOS version you pay $.005 per stock per day for end-of-day data--with a cap of $1.00 no matter how many stocks you download. 80 stocks X $.005/day X 22 market days = $8.80/mo. With the Windows version you pay a flat rate of $2.49 per day for all stocks and indexes no matter how often you download each day. << I have the pro version & I pay 1.95 a day for EOD data for everything. It may cost you a buck to update (maximum) but it costs 39 cents (?) a year for each company,index, mutual fund, etc. It adds up which is why I went with the 1.95 flat rate for everything. Bob - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 07:16:45 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another IBD article.latest sells of top funds Friday, B2 The best (top rated) institutional investors have "gotten out" of these in last reporting period. In order of most "'smart money' leaving": yum soi mds tgp ba una eco rtna hsm cpo mra sebl nscp wh dose noka intc flm cndo hot oxhp cps asnd srr bev tm _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 07:19:02 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Spam count Yes, I've been spammed regularly by stock-related crap for at least 2 weeks. I suspect this list is not "tight" enough. I guess there's no way for Jeff to keep them off but if you post to this list then you're gonna get spammed. Thank me with breakout tips for getting at least 4 accounts revoked. Of course they just go get a new one the next day... At 06:43 AM 7/17/98 -0600, you wrote: >Has anyone else in the group noticed an increase in spam over the last week? >When I got back into town last night, I was shocked to find almost 20% of my >mail was spam (this is a huge increase over the normal 1 or 2 per week that >I had been receiving). I only post messages to one group, this one. I have >not replied to or answered any questionnaire or on-line forms. It appears to >me that our list is being harvested by someone. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 10:27:58 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thursday IBD article on market movers Richard, Nice post. Very worth while to think about. I have a few thoughts, but nothing definitive: 1. This goes to the whole "L" and "N" issues. Leadership stocks will sometimes do best because of future prospects (especially when combined with good "News"), rather than current earnings. The internet stocks meet this criteria in general. But one has to be very careful when getting down to specific cases - there will be a lot of trash pulled up to the surface due to the strength of the group. The true leaders, AMZN, YHOO, XCIT, and others are buyable on breakouts (IMHO) in spite of poor or non-existent earnings numbers based on Leadership (both individually, and due to belonging to a leading group). It is harder to choose that when buying a DELL or EAII, because it is easy to be led astray. Of course normal Canslim protections such as buying breakouts with stops in place helps to protect one. 2. Canslim does not propose identifying all of the best performing stocks in the market. It proposes finding stocks that are likely to perform well and then managing risk. What if you had only managed to buy one or two of the top 50, and then some lesser performers down in the top 200 or top 400 out of the 9000+ issues in the market. Most of the top 200 stocks probably doubled in the last year. That's not too bad. And your risk is reduced with companies with solid earnings histories. So, yes, some of the higher risk stocks will always work out. There is money to be made in all kinds of non-CS stocks. CS has the advantages of: reducing risk with certain fundamental and technical factors that go into selection. It also does so via money management based on those technicals (breakouts and stops). It provides you with a filtering mechanism for identifying stocks that are likely to perform well - whereas the filters to find those other 41 stocks or 34 stocks might be rather hard to identify (and hard to implement). So if you could identify 10 of the 50 best performing stocks each year and 100 of the best 500 - might that not be good enough? 3. The low EPS ranks of these leading stocks may be pointing to frothiness and/or just how late it is in this bull market. Anybody getting convinced that we are in a "new era" now. That the market will continue to only go up? Maybe there are too many dogs performing and the market looks too much like a sure bet. I dunno (slang for "don't know"). 4. There were probably a few of these low EPS stocks that had poor prior year numbers, but which looked ok, except for problems related to a specific time frame. These would be turnarounds, which O'Neil mentions as 1/3 of the stocks that Canslimers might be buying. Turnarounds take a bit more digging. I would certainly include all stocks with EPS ranks of 75 or better as potential CS candidates - simply because I have noticed that a lot of the "young colts" are starting out with EPS in the mid 70's. At 06:42 AM 7/17/98 -0500, you wrote: > ...(snip) ... I believe we have >discussed the utility of EPS ranks in the past and found them to be somewhat >lacking, whereas RS is more useful? If you rely too much on RS, you end up becoming more and more a momentum player. CS in general is looking for EPS (IMO) to garner those stocks with 3yr-5yr histories of growth as well as those recent qtrs to show everything is doing well. The two factors together help to give you a solid foundation to stand on vis a vis the consistency of this company. The market pays up for this consistency, especially when it projects it into the future. Of course, one major slip-up and the stock will get pummelled. >(snip) >Jim O'Shaugnessy's "What Works on Wall Street" is keen on RS, seeing it as a >major component of top stock selection strategies. O'Shaugnessy also relies on revenue growth if I am not mistaken. Nothing wrong with that (he is assuming earnings will appear eventually as long as there is cash flow to continue operating). USAir is a recent (last couple of years) example of a stock he liked. >(snip) I'm wondering if the EPS rank itself might not be a good gauge of >earnings, or at least redundant for those of us checking quarterly numbers. Not IMO. I think you need the yearly and the quarterly most of the time. The Internet stocks of today and Biotechs of years ago are exceptions that prove the rule. Just some thoughts. Contrary opinions welcome. Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 07:58:50 -0700 From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Spam count Did any of you get this (particularly humorous) piece of... spam? They write like they're out of breath. Plus, it paints a great mental picture. What I did with it is turn it over to TSC.COM's Whistleblower. If it's egregious enough, they tend to follow up on it. ====== THE WALL STREET INVESTOR Bringing our readers the most undervalued small cap recommendations for 17 years running!!! RESORT WORLD ENTERPRISES,INC. (RERT) Trading on NASDAQ OTC Recommendation code: STRONG BUY*****RATING!!! THE WALL ST.INVESTOR > -----Original Message----- > From: Tim Fisher [SMTP:tim@orerockon.com] > Sent: Friday, July 17, 1998 10:19 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Spam count > > Yes, I've been spammed regularly by stock-related crap for at least 2 > weeks. > I suspect this list is not "tight" enough. I guess there's no way for Jeff > to keep them off but if you post to this list then you're gonna get > spammed. > Thank me with breakout tips for getting at least 4 accounts revoked. Of > course they just go get a new one the next day... > > At 06:43 AM 7/17/98 -0600, you wrote: > >Has anyone else in the group noticed an increase in spam over the last > week? > >When I got back into town last night, I was shocked to find almost 20% of > my > >mail was spam (this is a huge increase over the normal 1 or 2 per week > that > >I had been receiving). I only post messages to one group, this one. I > have > >not replied to or answered any questionnaire or on-line forms. It appears > to > >me that our list is being harvested by someone. > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 12:42:12 -0400 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Spam count I've been getting spammed instantly in new aol counts also, ie no posts etc. So I wouldn't assume that it's this list. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Dan Sutton > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Spam count > Date: Friday, July 17, 1998 8:43 AM > > Has anyone else in the group noticed an increase in spam over the last week? > When I got back into town last night, I was shocked to find almost 20% of my > mail was spam (this is a huge increase over the normal 1 or 2 per week that > I had been receiving). I only post messages to one group, this one. I have > not replied to or answered any questionnaire or on-line forms. It appears to > me that our list is being harvested by someone. > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 09:59:13 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Spam count Yes, got more than one from them. Their domain admin was nice about squashing their accounts. Both of them. I'm sure they'll get a new one if they haven't already. At 07:58 AM 7/17/98 , you wrote: >Did any of you get this (particularly humorous) piece of... spam? They write >like they're out of breath. Plus, it paints a great mental picture. > >What I did with it is turn it over to TSC.COM's Whistleblower. If it's >egregious enough, they tend to follow up on it. > >====== > > THE WALL STREET INVESTOR > > Bringing our readers the most undervalued small cap > recommendations for 17 years running!!! > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 11:12:36 -0600 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Daily Graphs information... On Jul 16, 5:03pm, Joe Scott wrote: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Daily Graphs information... > Jeff, did you get the info you needed? > > joe >-- End of excerpt from Joe Scott Yes, Tom Worley sent the information to me. Thanks, Tom... Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 10:32:32 -0700 From: Robert J Knott Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs phyllis robinson wrote: > > Is it too late to get in on TMBS @27? Is it too far extended? > Thanks,phyllis > Schroder downgraded it today to neutral. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 11:27:35 -0700 From: "Mike Lucero" Subject: [CANSLIM] delayed charts I'm using Quote.com's live charts, and especially like how it shows today in the daily chart. BigChart shows moving averages and other indicators, but leaves today out of the daily chart. Is there any free chart that shows today on the daily chart and lets me plot (at least) an EMA? Thanks, Mike - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 14:36:39 -0400 From: "Voelker, David" Subject: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS I noticed that Timberline Software, (NASDAQ TMBS) was downgraded today by Schroder & Co from a Buy to a Neutral. TMBS is currently off 2 1/8 (7.83%) on the day after yesterday announcing Q2 earnings of .22 vs. consensus estimates of .18 per share, a 22% positive surprise. This was a 65% increase in earnings vs. the same quarter previous year. At the same time, sales grew 31%, service fees (43% of total revenue) grew 19% with operating expenses growing at a 22% clip. While I would like to see expense growing at a slower rate, I think the above numbers paint a pretty decent picture (what we can see of the picture). I see no explanation given for the downgrade, has anyone heard anything to explain the drop? Is it just me or does it seem that the market has a positive earnings surprise built into the price of many issues? I have seen many issues of late putting out record results and being met with indifference and/or a negative response from the market. In light of the bull market have we raised the bar in terms of expectations of earnings growth? Does it seem like a typical response for an issue to lose 7% - 8% by being downgraded by a single brokerage? Regards - __________________________________________________ Dave Voelker davev@one.net http://w3.one.net/~davev - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 12:29:13 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Fwd: Finance - Midday Update @ 07/17/98 >** CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP. (COF: 122-5/8, - 2-1/16) was cut to >sell from recommend by analyst Sharada Krishnappa at Parker Hunter >Inc. Buying opportunity? Dunno why it was cut - maybe the following? Capital One Ratings Affirmed by Fitch IBCA - Fitch IBCA - NEW YORK, July 16 /PRNewswire/ -- Fitch IBCA affirms its ratings for Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) and its principal operating subsidiaries, Capital One Bank (COB) and Capital One Bank, FSB (COSB) following today's announcement that the company has entered the subprime automobile finance business through the acquisition of Summit Acceptance Corp. (SAC). Ratings affirmed include: COF's 'F2' short-term and 'BBB+' senior debt; COB's 'F2' short-term and 'A-' senior debt, and the 'F2' short-term and 'A-' senior long-term obligation rating of COSB. Additionally, the 'BBB+' capital securities issued by Capital One Capital I (a COB unit) and the ratings assigned to structured transactions issued through Capital One Master Trust are affirmed. While the subprime auto sector has undergone significant turmoil over the past three years, the segment does offer attractive long-term growth opportunities for participants capable of maintaining a reasonable balance between appropriate risk/return levels and receivable growth targets. In expanding its product offerings to include this segment, COF will seek to augment SAC's established business model with its sophisticated data modeling capabilities and formal testing methodology. In this context, the acquisition of SAC represents a 'measured' extension of COF's business strategy which is focused on leveraging its ability to develop strong risk/return business lines by applying information based technology and structured testing in the marketing of products and services to consumers. With a modest $260 million in serviced loans, SAC will continue to pursue its existing business plan, although its union with COF will result in the strengthening of its funding base and capital measures. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 12:40:48 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS Yes, yes, and yes. There is expectation that they will beat their estimates, it is driven up about 2 weeks before the announcement is due, I suspect insi= der trading also, but who can prove that? Look at CXP for a _perfect_ example= of insiders driving price before the earnings announcement. By the time the Little Fish hear, it's all over but the cryin'! Also, these downgrades are mostl= y attempts to get the stock for their clients at a discount. I know, most o= f you disagree, but there have been _so many_ churn 'n' burn examples of late t= hat I cannot believe that these brokerages have anyone's interests in mind exce= pt their own (see HBOC for another churn 'n' burn that probably made Salomon Bros. a cool couple million). Personaly, I got stopped out of TMBS with a loss = on a 15% trailing stop a few months ago, and that I suspect was a day-trader/M= M jerking around to take out some stops. I won't touch it again. Today is a perfect example of why not. P.S. It makes my Killer CASLI scan and has ma= de it for at least 6 months... At 11:36 AM 7/17/98 , you wrote: >I noticed that Timberline Software, (NASDAQ TMBS) was downgraded today b= y >Schroder & Co from a Buy to a Neutral.=A0 TMBS is currently off 2 1/8 (7= .83%) >on the day after yesterday announcing Q2 earnings of .22 vs. consensus >estimates of .18 per share, a 22% positive surprise.=A0 This was a 65% >increase in earnings vs. the same quarter previous year.=A0 At the same = time, >sales grew 31%, service fees (43% of total revenue) grew 19% with operat= ing >expenses growing at a 22% clip.=A0 While I would like to see expense gro= wing >at a slower rate, I think the above numbers paint a pretty decent pictur= e >(what we can see of the picture). > >I see no explanation given for the downgrade, has anyone heard anything = to >explain the drop?=A0 Is it just me or does it seem that the market has a >positive earnings surprise built into the price of many issues?=A0 I hav= e seen >many issues of late putting out record results and being met with >indifference and/or a negative response from the market.=A0 In light of = the >bull market have we raised the bar in terms of expectations of earnings >growth? > >Does it seem like a typical response for an issue to lose 7% - 8% by bei= ng >downgraded by a single brokerage? > >Regards -=20 >__________________________________________________ >Dave Voelker >davev@one.net >http://w3.one.net/~davev > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #328 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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