From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #329 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, July 18 1998 Volume 02 : Number 329 In this issue: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM] VIX Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS. Others in same group also down: PSQL, SSNC Re: [CANSLIM] delayed charts [CANSLIM] Thoughts on Thursday IBD Article [CANSLIM] Here are a few to check out Re: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM] VIX Re: [CANSLIM] Here are a few to check out Re: [CANSLIM] Here are a few to check out [CANSLIM] IBD articles [CANSLIM] THQI earnings due July23 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 13:06:56 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM] VIX The maybe has a bearing on the market. The VIX (volatility index) is incredibly low at 16.88. Some people claim this is an expression of over exuberance (not Greenspan) and indicates a top. It is lowest it has been in a year at least. This makes options relatively cheap to buy but suggests that puts would be a reasonable bet. Does anyone have options on indices or favorite overpriced stocks (Don't give me AMZN) that they think would provide good insurance in case of a drop. Thanks, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 22:28:46 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS. Others in same group also down: PSQL, SSNC Volker, Came home just 5 minutes before the close. I saw that PSQL and SSNC, which are in the same group as TMBS, were also down. Personally, I look at all stocks as merchandise (money printing machines maybe?). If it doesn't 'perform' I get rid of it. I try hard not to rationalize or explain why it is down and/or whether it "might" go up again. Been hurt more than once before trying to do just that in the past. As was said in this group a while ago: Look at what it DOES, not at what you think it should do. There are or will be plenty of other trains leaving the station. Re: PSQL Couldn't get my stop cancelled and new sell other placed fast enough or I would have sold my PSQL. Yes, even though it broke out nicely yesterday, and even though it did not break through support YET. Who knows what it will do in the next few days? I certainly don't. If this downward spike on PSQL in the last hour of trading was options expirations related and it shows strenght on Monday, I will keep it. Otherwise I'll sell it. Just as I would do with bad performing merchandise. Just my 2c. I do not recommend this way of looking at trading to others, as they might have completely different objectives. Just works for me. At 02:36 PM 17-07-98 -0400, you wrote: >I noticed that Timberline Software, (NASDAQ TMBS) was downgraded today by >Schroder & Co from a Buy to a Neutral. TMBS is currently off 2 1/8 (7.83%) >on the day after yesterday announcing Q2 earnings of .22 vs. consensus >estimates of .18 per share, a 22% positive surprise. This was a 65% >increase in earnings vs. the same quarter previous year. At the same time, >sales grew 31%, service fees (43% of total revenue) grew 19% with operating >expenses growing at a 22% clip. While I would like to see expense growing >at a slower rate, I think the above numbers paint a pretty decent picture >(what we can see of the picture). > >I see no explanation given for the downgrade, has anyone heard anything to >explain the drop? Is it just me or does it seem that the market has a >positive earnings surprise built into the price of many issues? I have seen >many issues of late putting out record results and being met with >indifference and/or a negative response from the market. In light of the >bull market have we raised the bar in terms of expectations of earnings >growth? > >Does it seem like a typical response for an issue to lose 7% - 8% by being >downgraded by a single brokerage? > >Regards - >__________________________________________________ >Dave Voelker >davev@one.net >http://w3.one.net/~davev > > >- > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 14:05:08 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] delayed charts I'm not sure what you want, but try this. http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=5m&chart=bar&chart1=lr&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=ba - ---Mike Lucero wrote: > > I'm using Quote.com's live charts, and especially like how it shows today in > the daily chart. BigChart shows moving averages and other indicators, but > leaves today out of the daily chart. Is there any free chart that shows > today on the daily chart and lets me plot (at least) an EMA? > > Thanks, > > Mike > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 21:46:08 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on Thursday IBD Article Thanks to Tom and Craig for their insights. I am finding it challenging to balance the need for more information against the desire to make a buy/sell decision. Seems like if one waits until enough data is gathered (quarterly EPS, estimates, ROE, etc.), it's too late. I refer to fundamentals, mostly, not confirmation from price moves two or three days after "noticing" a stock. Being in the military, we are taught to "plan" for contingencies and assemble as much knowledge and equipment as possible prior to conflict. How do other CANSLIMmers work this dilemma with stocks? Do you screen for CS picks using fundamentals, wait for them to make new highs, check the chart for patterns, and then buy? I suppose one could also use technicals as screens, but I am concerned TA is not as effective in uptrending markets. (Honestly I know very little about TA, outside of a few IBD articles and short chapters in books.) I am very interested in how others here make the best use of their limited time. Speaking of TA, what's WON's view? Finally, anyone else receiving free weekly faxes from CANSLIM.net? I'm waiting for them to say -- "Now that you've tried our FABULOUS service, why not continue by paying only $19.95 per month?" -- or something similar. Richard - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Jul 1998 08:15:57 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Here are a few to check out Looking through last night's HGS file, here are a some candidates that are interesting enough to deserve more research this afternoon. The file has been uploaded and as soon as Jeff gives the OK I will post the Url PXXI UPUP NRVH AVEI LHSG COMR DHI - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Jul 1998 10:36:13 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM] VIX Rolatzi, Thanks for mentioning the VIX, interesting comments. At 01:06 PM 7/17/98 -0700, you wrote: >(snip...) >Does anyone >have options on indices or favorite overpriced stocks (Don't give me >AMZN) that they think would provide good insurance in case of a drop. Instead of looking for overpriced stocks by themselves, you might try looking for stocks that have decisively broken their 50 dma and for which the 50dma is turning down. Short it when it bounces off of the 50dma from the under side and turns down again. Then you have at least the short term (50 day) trend moving your way and a "retest" of that moving average which was not successful. Look for other technically bearish signs - such as higher volume on down days and/or down weeks and breaking below important support. Screen your candidates for those with the worst news or fundamentals as well. Finally, you should probably wait for the market to give a sell signal (at least one). Although, if you are just buying "insurance", then that may be later than you want to wait ... OTOH, it seems to me that the last couple of corrections have been preceeded by a buying surge (just the thing to wash out the last of the shorts). At least twice I can remember the group comments running something like "there have been several days of distribution lately, but all the breakouts seem to still be working and a lot of the other leaders are still hitting new highs". Then a few days later the market turns on a dime. Just some thoughts ... Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Jul 1998 07:41:54 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Here are a few to check out A quick shot from Zacks data. I'm in NRVH but it doesn't impress me as much as it used to. DHI is overowned but nice EPS accelleration. Going on my list. Ditto w/ PXXI. Can someone provide the EPS growth and insiders for LHSG? Ditto on earnings for AVEI. UPUP is 62% insider-owned - just over my limit. Anyone see a problem with this? And it's up 112% in the past 24 weeks. Natl Rv Hldgs D R Horton Inc Lhs Group Inc Prophet 21 Inc Arterial Vascul Comair Hldgs Utd Pay Utd Pro TICKER NRVH DHI LHSG PXXI AVEI COMR UPUP EXCHANGE NSDQ NYSE NSDQ NSDQ NSDQ NSDQ NSDQ SHARES OUT 6 53 52 4 64 67 17 24WK PCHG% 35.23 10.58 126.48 16.33 30.84 15.7 112 % INSTITUT 49.22 71.08 51.07 9.18 61.75 50.44 17.9 % INSIDERS 36.92 36.44 N/A 60.53 25.32 23.01 62.47 20D AVEVOL 56961 436035 272960 10480 1200525 407310 39885 TREND EPGR 34.25 23.3 N/A 73.81 N/A 38.87 N/A QEPS 0/-4 83.33 55 240 57.14 753.33 43.34 37.22 QEPS -1/-5 148.15 33.33 77.78 54.55 60 54.51 38.73 QEPS -2/-6 114.81 17.24 27.27 100 -28 31.07 54.42 ROE 29.12 16.9 15.9 15.52 36.86 30.64 28.54 D/Equity 11 0 0.79 0 0 31.79 20.77 At 08:15 AM 7/18/98 -0600, you wrote: >Looking through last night's HGS file, here are a some candidates that are >interesting enough to deserve more research this afternoon. The file has >been uploaded and as soon as Jeff gives the OK I will post the Url > > >PXXI >UPUP >NRVH >AVEI >LHSG >COMR >DHI > > > > >- > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Jul 1998 08:28:39 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Here are a few to check out <> AVEI is a you pays your money and you takes your choice kind of stock. It's very much in play by short-sellers and the faithful. Some say that BSX's new stents will trounce AVEI, yet BSX was recently downgraded and AVEI upgraded. If you're interested, OnLine Investor recently did a fairly thorough analysis of all this and listed the major players (three or four, as I remember). I'd copy it here but it's too long. This link should take you to the BSX piece (http://www.investhelp.com/bsx_spotlight.shtml). If not, just go to www.investhelp.com and click Company Spotlight. There's also a report on AVEI which is accessible on the right-hand side of the BSX report, but the BSX report is more recent. Bottom line is that this is just as much news-driven as earnings-driven and could just as easily fall as rise at any given moment. Like I said, you pays your money . . . - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Jul 1998 15:02:36 EDT From: Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD articles Group: I know there are some members who enjoy and find useful the Canslim- relevant articles I find in Investors Business Daily. However, I haven't been able to send any of their articles recently because currently there are communications problems with the AOL/IBD link. Since presently you can only search (and copy and paste) IBD articles in the AOL service (not the Internet service), I'll have to wait till the problem gets solved before sending any more articles. (Here is what IBD had to say when I called the problem to their attention: "Subj: Re: IBD Suggestion Box Date: 98-07-17 09:16:43 EDT From: IBD Jay To: JANSI1AUG1 We are aware of the problem. It is not our database that is corrupt. We've identified the problem with AOL. It's a communication between IBD & AOL. The programmers are working on it now and it should be resolved shortly. If there is an article that you want, let me know and I can either mail or fax it to you. Jay") By the way, I also wrote AOL, and they claim that the reason for the difficulty is because they are in the process of "upgrading." (Perhaps when they get the problem solved, they'll also call that an "upgrade".) jans - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 23:18:09 EDT From: Subject: [CANSLIM] THQI earnings due July23 Folks I am relatively new to canslim. I have researched THQI and believe it to be a canslim candidate. I like to get some opinions. Shares outstanding: 7,231,000 Institutional Sponsorship: 41% EPS 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 MAR -1.65 -.15 -.06 .12 .86 - JUN -1.20 .10 .10 .14 .19 - SEP -1.35 .09 .13 .20 .23 - DEC -3.95 .10 .19 .84 .82 ================================ -8.75 .14 .36 1.30 2.09 2.53 Note BOLD last two actual earnings quarters both quarters doubled estimates UNDERLINE next quarters eps estimates. The stock is making a new high and earnings sre due to be released. Any opinions on the charts. Weekly? Thanks Frank - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #329 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.