From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3384 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, June 20 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3384 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! RE: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Re: RE: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] tchc - entry point Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] TSCO ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 09:58:17 -0700 (PDT) From: Bill Triffet Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! - ------=_Part_4457_3939373.1056128261016 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Fred et all, Assuming the fact that I'm just a kid of 43 now, I wasn't paying attention to the economics of the 1980's but I do seem to remember the same facts/fears being brought up then by those who were "paying attention". (not me...(g)) I do recall working MUCHO overtime at aerospace/defense companys back then. I do recall interest rates and property taxes (in Los Angeles) were sky high. I also recall writing off a percentage of my consumer credit on my taxes as well back then don't know if that hurt or helped the economy. I'm still in aerospace now btw. Do you know of any site that could give comparative data of the economics of the 1980's with regard to jobs, the deficit, etc? I've often wondered about the comparisons. Perhaps others here can pipe in (minus their political views) about the state of the economy then and now? Might put a good spin on the current state of the markets. - -- Bill >>The U.S. Treasury announced an as-expected budget deficit of $90.5 billion in May. Year-to-date, the budget deficit stands at $292.1 billion vs. $145.4 billion in the year-ago period. Both individual and corporate tax receipts are sharply lower than a year ago, reflecting declining payrolls and soft business conditions. Government spending is high, especially for defense and Medicare. Wonder how long it will take the foreign investors to panic? And when they do, will the market continue on its way up? - ------=_Part_4457_3939373.1056128261016 Content-Type: TEXT/HTML; name=MESSAGE.HTML; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: attachment; filename=MESSAGE.HTML Message
The U.S. Treasury announced an as-expected budget deficit of $90.5 billion in May. Year-to-date, the budget deficit stands at $292.1 billion vs. $145.4 billion in the year-ago period. Both individual and corporate tax receipts are sharply lower than a year ago, reflecting declining payrolls and soft business conditions. Government spending is high, especially for defense and Medicare.
 
---------------------
 
Wonder how long it will take the foreign investors to panic?  And when they do, will the market continue on its way up?
- ------=_Part_4457_3939373.1056128261016-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 12:22:55 -0500 From: "Fred Richards" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! www.economagic.com is a place with a lot of the statistics you might be interested in. Also, the various governmental websites like BIS, Department of Commerce, and the Department of Labor. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Bill Triffet Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 11:58 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! Fred et all, Assuming the fact that I'm just a kid of 43 now, I wasn't paying attention to the economics of the 1980's but I do seem to remember the same facts/fears being brought up then by those who were "paying attention". (not me...(g)) I do recall working MUCHO overtime at aerospace/defense companys back then. I do recall interest rates and property taxes (in Los Angeles) were sky high. I also recall writing off a percentage of my consumer credit on my taxes as well back then don't know if that hurt or helped the economy. I'm still in aerospace now btw. Do you know of any site that could give comparative data of the economics of the 1980's with regard to jobs, the deficit, etc? I've often wondered about the comparisons. Perhaps others here can pipe in (minus their political views) about the state of the economy then and now? Might put a good spin on the current state of the markets. - -- Bill >>The U.S. Treasury announced an as-expected budget deficit of $90.5 billion in May. Year-to-date, the budget deficit stands at $292.1 billion vs. $145.4 billion in the year-ago period. Both individual and corporate tax receipts are sharply lower than a year ago, reflecting declining payrolls and soft business conditions. Government spending is high, especially for defense and Medicare. Wonder how long it will take the foreign investors to panic? And when they do, will the market continue on its way up? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 13:55:24 -0400 From: "jmp23834" Subject: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00C1_01C33733.993C6E00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I had some nice profits in housing stock at the beginning of the week. = (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on CANSLIM rules are these going through a normal = correction this week or should I have sold on Monday? John P - ------=_NextPart_000_00C1_01C33733.993C6E00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I had some nice profits in housing = stock at the=20 beginning of the week. (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on CANSLIM rules are these = going=20 through a normal correction this week or should I have sold on=20 Monday?
 
John P
- ------=_NextPart_000_00C1_01C33733.993C6E00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 11:13:10 -0700 (PDT) From: Bill Triffet Subject: Re: RE: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! Fred, www.economagic.com - Just what I was looking for. Thanks. - -- Bill - -------Original Message------- From: Fred Richards Sent: 06/20/03 10:22 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! > > www.economagic.com is a place with a lot of the statistics you might be interested in. Also, the various governmental websites like BIS, Department of Commerce, and the Department of Labor. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Bill Triffet Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 11:58 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! Fred et all, Assuming the fact that I'm just a kid of 43 now, I wasn't paying attention to the economics of the 1980's but I do seem to remember the same facts/fears being brought up then by those who were "paying attention". (not me...(g)) I do recall working MUCHO overtime at aerospace/defense companys back then. I do recall interest rates and property taxes (in Los Angeles) were sky high. I also recall writing off a percentage of my consumer credit on my taxes as well back then don't know if that hurt or helped the economy. I'm still in aerospace now btw. Do you know of any site that could give comparative data of the economics of the 1980's with regard to jobs, the deficit, etc? I've often wondered about the comparisons. Perhaps others here can pipe in (minus their political views) about the state of the economy then and now? Might put a good spin on the current state of the markets. - -- Bill >>The U.S. Treasury announced an as-expected budget deficit of $90.5 billion in May. Year-to-date, the budget deficit stands at $292.1 billion vs. $145.4 billion in the year-ago period. Both individual and corporate tax receipts are sharply lower than a year ago, reflecting declining payrolls and soft business conditions. Government spending is high, especially for defense and Medicare. Wonder how long it will take the foreign investors to panic? And when they do, will the market continue on its way up? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 11:38:33 -0700 (PDT) From: Fanus Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Hi John Who knows if this is a correction, or if Monday was the top. But this really shouldn't matter. You need to have stops, either mentally, or hard, and just stick to them. That way you wouldn't start to wonder while you are holding a position what to do. Just stick to your plan. Best Regards - - Fanus - --- jmp23834 wrote: > I had some nice profits in housing stock at the > beginning of the week. (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on > CANSLIM rules are these going through a normal > correction this week or should I have sold on > Monday? > > John P __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 14:52:59 -0400 From: "jmp23834" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Fanus, Your right. But it's hard to fight the greed factor. Why settle for 25% profit when I could have had 30%. :) - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Fanus" To: Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 2:38 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks > Hi John > > Who knows if this is a correction, or if Monday was > the top. But this really shouldn't matter. You need > to have stops, either mentally, or hard, and just > stick to them. That way you wouldn't start to wonder > while you are holding a position what to do. Just > stick to your plan. > > Best Regards > - Fanus > > --- jmp23834 wrote: > > I had some nice profits in housing stock at the > > beginning of the week. (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on > > CANSLIM rules are these going through a normal > > correction this week or should I have sold on > > Monday? > > > > John P > > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! > http://sbc.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 15:15:22 -0600 (GMT) From: rolfh@mindspring.com Subject: Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks And you're right about the greed factor. One thing I've learned is that by being wishy-washy and second guessing an exit plan, the 25% that was 30% can soon end up being 20%, 15%, ...... followed by lack of sleep, antacids, etc. Rolf > > Fanus, Your right. But it's hard to fight the greed factor. Why settle for 25% profit when I could have had 30%. :) - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Fanus" To: Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 2:38 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks > Hi John > > Who knows if this is a correction, or if Monday was > the top. But this really shouldn't matter. You need > to have stops, either mentally, or hard, and just > stick to them. That way you wouldn't start to wonder > while you are holding a position what to do. Just > stick to your plan. > > Best Regards > - Fanus > > --- jmp23834 wrote: > > I had some nice profits in housing stock at the > > beginning of the week. (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on > > CANSLIM rules are these going through a normal > > correction this week or should I have sold on > > Monday? > > > > John P > > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! > http://sbc.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 12:51:29 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] tchc - entry point This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_YZOs7lBIVXwoNzEI6GcaCQ) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT I'm curious as well. It seems to me that entries here in the $14.80 - $15.00 range still offer good risk/reward, but I am curious as to how others might look at this one. Cheers, Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Rolf Hertenstein To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 8:06 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] tchc - entry point So let's assume you (general you, not specifically you Ian) are perfectly happy with TCHC's fundies and the pivot's determined to be $14.48. Right now (Friday, 1040 am EDT) TCHC is $15.00, which is 3.6% above the pivot. So would folks still tend to buy here since it is within a few % of the pivot? Yesterday's pullback was on relatively light volume. Any other thoughts on a good entry point for this stock? I'm asking since buying at the right time, or lack thereof, is still a weakness of mine. Thanks for any ideas! Rolf ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian I see a cup from Jan 1 until early May, then the handle from early May until last week. Pivot was just over $14. Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: bikear@aol.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 7:28 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] tchc where is the left and right side of the cup and handle...and what is the pivot..thanks janis - --Boundary_(ID_YZOs7lBIVXwoNzEI6GcaCQ) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
I'm curious as well. It seems to me that entries here in the $14.80 - $15.00 range still offer good risk/reward, but I am curious as to how others might look at this one.
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 8:06 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] tchc - entry point

So let's assume you (general you, not specifically you Ian) are perfectly happy with TCHC's fundies and the pivot's determined to be $14.48.  Right now (Friday, 1040 am EDT) TCHC is $15.00, which is 3.6% above the pivot.
 
So would folks still tend to buy here since it is within a few % of the pivot?  Yesterday's pullback was on relatively light volume.  Any other thoughts on a good entry point for this stock?  I'm asking since buying at the right time, or lack thereof, is still a weakness of mine.
 
Thanks for any ideas!
 
 Rolf
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian

I see a cup from Jan 1 until early May, then the handle from early May until last week. Pivot was just over $14.
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 7:28 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] tchc

where is the left and right side of the cup and handle...and what is the pivot..thanks janis
- --Boundary_(ID_YZOs7lBIVXwoNzEI6GcaCQ)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 14:51:25 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C3373B.6C001A10 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable John, not sure why they are selling off so hard today. Could be it has = to do with Fed meeting next week? Maybe the 'smart money' is = anticipating a no interest rate cut and therefore no new fuel to stoke = the mortgage rate fire sale? If I look at their daily charts I see that all three have dropped to = their 20 day MA support. If they penetrate that support I personally = would be spectator. It's a different feeling when I sell too soon versus selling too late. Just my 2 cents, Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: jmp23834=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 1:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Fanus, Your right. But it's hard to fight the greed factor. Why settle for = 25% profit when I could have had 30%. :) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Fanus" To: Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 2:38 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks > Hi John > > Who knows if this is a correction, or if Monday was > the top. But this really shouldn't matter. You need > to have stops, either mentally, or hard, and just > stick to them. That way you wouldn't start to wonder > while you are holding a position what to do. Just > stick to your plan. > > Best Regards > - Fanus > > --- jmp23834 wrote: > > I had some nice profits in housing stock at the > > beginning of the week. (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on > > CANSLIM rules are these going through a normal > > correction this week or should I have sold on > > Monday? > > > > John P > > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! > http://sbc.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C3373B.6C001A10 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
John, not sure why they are selling = off so hard=20 today.  Could be it has to do with Fed meeting next = week?   Maybe=20 the 'smart money' is anticipating a no interest rate cut and=20 therefore no new fuel to stoke the mortgage rate fire = sale?
 
If I look at their daily = charts I see=20 that all three have dropped to their 20 day MA support. If they = penetrate=20 that support I personally would be spectator.
 
It's a different feeling when = I sell too=20 soon versus selling too late.
 
Just  my 2 = cents,
Gene
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 jmp23834=20
Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 = 1:52 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing=20 Stocks

Fanus,

Your right. But it's hard to fight the = greed=20 factor. Why settle for 25%
profit when I could have had 30%.=20 :)

----- Original Message -----
From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com>
To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Friday, June 20, 2003 2:38 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing=20 Stocks


> Hi John
>
> Who knows if this is a=20 correction, or if Monday was
> the top.  But this really = shouldn't=20 matter.  You need
> to have stops, either  mentally, = or hard,=20 and just
> stick to them. That way you wouldn't start to = wonder
>=20 while you are holding a position what to do.  Just
> stick = to your=20 plan.
>
> Best Regards
> - Fanus
>
> --- = jmp23834 <jmp23834@yahoo.com>=20 wrote:
> > I had some nice profits in housing stock at = the
>=20 > beginning of the week. (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on
> > = CANSLIM=20 rules are these going through a normal
> > correction this = week or=20 should I have sold on
> > Monday?
> >
> > = John=20 P
>
>
> __________________________________
> = Do you=20 Yahoo!?
> SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month!
> http://sbc.yahoo.com
>
> = - -
>=20 -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ; -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C3373B.6C001A10-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 17:46:34 -0500 From: "Norman Boyd" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TSCO This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0075_01C33753.E44164D0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit "...benign pullback " Katherine, I like that terminology. Not all pullbacks are equal. The latest GRMN pull back is a good example. Bad news regarding a missed contract and an analysts downgrade render this high vol pull back "malignant." However, a couple of weeks ago there were many low volume "benign" pull backs to choose from. Norm ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 7:56 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Harold, In the context of the discussion, a stock that is *already* rising from a previous consolidation affords no low-risk entry point. With TSCO, an entry here puts you at risk of sitting out another pullback to the previous logical area of support. In this case, that can be all the way back to the previous pivot, slightly below (as that wide bar during the last pullback just after the last BO suggests), or somewhere around the 50dMA. The slight wedging action in recent weeks suggests that the probability of a pullback is very high, and particularly if one uses an 8% stop loss, the probability of being shaken out is therefore very high. If one really likes this stock, then it's a lot smarter to wait for a benign pullback and take your chances that it begins to move up again from the pullback, as your odds of making money on the trade are considerably higher. This is precisely what Fred has done for a couple of years, purchasing on pullbacks and selling TSCO many times since 12/01. I think the lesson with something like TSCO is that the 8% stop loss is a protective mechanism for entry at the ideal buy point (a strong BO on volume from a base), as the pullback here tends not to be much deeper if the BO is strong. However, using an 8% stop when entering an extended stock is just and excuse to loose 8%. There are plenty of good stocks out there, but one can purcase "a very good stock" and still lose their shirt 8% at a time. When a stock is extended, the 8% stop has no logic, because the next logical area of support is generally much, much lower than 8% below the extended entry. Even if one were to set a stop well below the 8% and back at logical support, then the risk is that the stock not only pulls back but *fails* outright, falling back into the base. At that point, a stop would force you out at a much bigger loss than 8%. Oooh...makes me shiver to think about it. Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold Josephson Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 1:09 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Katherine, What do you conclude from this chart? Thanks Harold -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:07 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Treb, Here's the chart as I see it: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/TSCO061603.JPG Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Treb Courie Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:48 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] TSCO Is TSCO breaking out today? It's got good fundamentals and is on my watch list. However, I think I'm going to stay off of it--it looks to me like it broke out of a sloppy handle on 2 June and is too extended now. Regards, Treb - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0075_01C33753.E44164D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
"...benign pullback "
 
Katherine, I like that terminology.  Not all pullbacks are=20 equal.  The latest GRMN pull back is a good example.  Bad news = regarding a missed contract and an analysts downgrade render this = high vol=20 pull back "malignant."  However, a couple of weeks ago there were = many low=20 volume "benign" pull backs to choose from.
 
Norm
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 = 7:56=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = TSCO

Hi Harold,

In the context of the discussion, a = stock=20 that is *already* rising from a
previous consolidation affords no = low-risk=20 entry point. With TSCO, an entry
here puts you at risk of sitting = out=20 another pullback to the previous
logical area of support. In this = case,=20 that can be all the way back to the
previous pivot, slightly below = (as that=20 wide bar during the last pullback
just after the last BO suggests), = or=20 somewhere around the 50dMA. The slight
wedging action in recent = weeks=20 suggests that the probability of a pullback
is very high, and = particularly=20 if one uses an 8% stop loss, the probability
of being shaken out is = therefore very high.

 If one really likes this stock, then = it's a=20 lot smarter to wait for a
benign pullback and take your chances = that it=20 begins to move up again from
the pullback, as your odds of making = money on=20 the trade are considerably
higher. This is precisely what Fred has = done for=20 a couple of years,
purchasing on pullbacks and selling TSCO many = times=20 since 12/01.

I think the lesson with something like TSCO is = that the 8%=20 stop loss is a
protective mechanism for entry at the ideal buy = point (a=20 strong BO on volume
from a base), as the pullback here tends not to = be much=20 deeper if the BO is
strong. However, using an 8% stop when entering = an=20 extended stock is just
and excuse to loose 8%. There are plenty of = good=20 stocks out there, but one
can purcase "a very good stock" and still = lose=20 their shirt 8% at a time.
When a stock is extended, the 8% stop has = no=20 logic, because the next logical
area of support is generally much, = much=20 lower than 8% below the extended
entry. Even if one were to set a = stop well=20 below the 8% and back at logical
support, then the risk is that the = stock=20 not only pulls back but *fails*
outright, falling back into the = base. At=20 that point, a stop would force you
out at a much bigger loss than = 8%.=20 Oooh...makes me shiver to think about=20 it.

Katherine

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Harold Josephson
Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 1:09 = AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO



Hi Katherine,

What do you = conclude=20 from this chart?

Thanks

Harold

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:07 = AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO

Hi Treb,

Here's the chart as I see=20 it:

http://www.cwh= charts.com/katherine/TSCO061603.JPG

Katherine

-----Orig= inal=20 Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Treb Courie
Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:48 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 [CANSLIM] TSCO


Is TSCO breaking out today?  It's got = good=20 fundamentals and is on my watch
list.  However, I think I'm = going to=20 stay off of it--it looks to me like it
broke out of a sloppy handle = on 2=20 June and is too extended now.

Regards,
Treb

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