From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3409 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, July 9 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3409 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] PWER RE: [CANSLIM] PWER [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) RE: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC RE: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC RE: [CANSLIM] What went wrong! Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2003 09:35:29 -0700 From: "Frik Lebom" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PWER Hi, Looks like PWER is a cwh stock but not really a canslim candidate yet because it has failed the recent quarter revenue increase rule , it also do not have strong profit margin and ROE that WON usually looks for in CANSLIM stock, furthermore this stock do not meet the "A" of CANSLIM as well ,it is priced under $15, its' industry group ranking is 163 out of 197 according to IBD industry group ranking . So fundamentally speaking this might not be the best candidate anyway(if you are a strict canslim investor like me), so who knows, maybe you missed something for good :) Frik >From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] PWER >Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 10:01:10 -0500 > >Wow, > >This stock just made a breakout yesterday, but only rose above 0.6% above >the bo price of 8.22. I saw it last night during my evening review, and >was going to look today for a followthru. I was away from my computer this >morning for a meeting, and come back to see a 12% gain!!! Oh well, on to a >new one..... > > >Mike > >Mike Niemotka , PE >Sr. Principal Engineer >Baxter Healthcare Corporation >Route 120 & Wilson Road >Round Lake, IL 60073 >Tel (847) 270-4075 >Fax (847) 270-4525 >michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. _________________________________________________________________ Add photos to your e-mail with MSN 8. Get 2 months FREE*. http://join.msn.com/?page=features/featuredemail - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 12:56:34 -0400 From: "inderjit" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PWER PWER had great canslim characters when the markets peaked. Now probably not a cansli(M) candidate. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of michael_niemotka@baxter.com Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 11:01 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] PWER Wow, This stock just made a breakout yesterday, but only rose above 0.6% above the bo price of 8.22. I saw it last night during my evening review, and was going to look today for a followthru. I was away from my computer this morning for a meeting, and come back to see a 12% gain!!! Oh well, on to a new one..... Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 15:40:33 -0500 From: "Kelly Short" Subject: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC I noticed today that SFCC is up 12% since breaking out on 7/8. I = reevaluated my evaluation of this stock to see if perhaps I missed a = CANSLIM candidate. I stand beside my decision not to pursue this stock = because: Industry Score =3D 148/190 (and getting worse) Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth decelerating Quarterly Sales Growth Rates over the trailing four quarters negatively = erradic compared to last year's Quarterly Sales Growth Rates Would anyone argue that I was too harsh in my review of this stock? Did = anyone see a gem and get into the BO? I will greatly appreciate anyone's opinions. Thanks! Kelly - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 16:00:38 -0500 From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Kelly, I saw the same things that you did. For me, it is always a struggle not to chase those stocks that break out of a nice looking pattern, but don't having the fundies behind them. I am sure that many people probably make some money doing just that, but I have also seen some of them drop way back down in a hurry. From what I have seen over the fast few weeks is that many good stocks are breaking out, you just need to stay focussed. Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Kelly Short" cc: Sent by: Subject: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC owner-canslim@lists.xm ission.com 07/09/2003 03:40 PM Please respond to canslim I noticed today that SFCC is up 12% since breaking out on 7/8. I reevaluated my evaluation of this stock to see if perhaps I missed a CANSLIM candidate. I stand beside my decision not to pursue this stock because: Industry Score = 148/190 (and getting worse) Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth decelerating Quarterly Sales Growth Rates over the trailing four quarters negatively erradic compared to last year's Quarterly Sales Growth Rates Would anyone argue that I was too harsh in my review of this stock? Did anyone see a gem and get into the BO? I will greatly appreciate anyone's opinions. Thanks! Kelly - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 06:34:01 -0400 (EDT) From: Duncan Douglass Subject: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) I am a long time lurker on this list. I have recently re-dedicated myself to following a strict CANSLIM investing approach. As I have limited free time and can't do much more than glance through my IBD each day, I am intrigued by what cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) has to offer and the time it could potentially save in helping to create a watchlist and identify breakouts. I know a number of list participants subscribe to the various breakoutwatch.com services and I would greatly appreciate your thoughts (in public or private reply) on which level of service (if any) you recommend and whether you deem the service you use to be worth its cost. Thanks for your guidance. Duncan - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2003 17:19:00 -0400 From: "Pritish Shah" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Duncan, Yes it is definately worth it. I have found several good stocks at the = right time. Let me give you a list TARO, APPX, WFSI, AMHC, SFNT, CKP etc. The email alert is the key thing. I am trying to get on CyberTrader and do = some automations in the trades. One thing that I noticed (own research) is = that most of the stocks that they have alerted about, have gone up = dramatically. I use the platinum service (but I got a break as I used to be a Gold = subscriber and got the deal for the same price as a Gold service. Thanks, Pritish >>> duncandouglass@earthlink.net 07/09/03 06:34AM >>> I am a long time lurker on this list. I have recently re-dedicated myself = to following a strict CANSLIM investing approach. As I have limited free = time and can't do much more than glance through my IBD each day, I am = intrigued by what cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) has to offer and = the time it could potentially save in helping to create a watchlist and = identify breakouts. =20 I know a number of list participants subscribe to the various breakoutwatch= .com services and I would greatly appreciate your thoughts (in public or = private reply) on which level of service (if any) you recommend and = whether you deem the service you use to be worth its cost. =20 Thanks for your guidance. Duncan - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 16:22:55 -0500 From: "Kelly Short" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Duncan, I am a cwhcharts.com subscriber and consider this tool they key behind = my canslim trading success. I would not have been able to achieve my = tremendous trading success without it. To not sound like a public = endorsement of the service I will contact you privately with a personal = summation of value. Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: Duncan Douglass [mailto:duncandouglass@earthlink.net] Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 5:34 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) I am a long time lurker on this list. I have recently re-dedicated = myself to following a strict CANSLIM investing approach. As I have = limited free time and can't do much more than glance through my IBD each = day, I am intrigued by what cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) has to = offer and the time it could potentially save in helping to create a = watchlist and identify breakouts. =20 I know a number of list participants subscribe to the various = breakoutwatch.com services and I would greatly appreciate your thoughts = (in public or private reply) on which level of service (if any) you = recommend and whether you deem the service you use to be worth its cost. = =20 Thanks for your guidance. Duncan - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 16:49:23 -0500 From: "Kelly Short" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Thanks for the support Mike. It just hurts thinking about what could = have been in my pocket. Of course, we never like to think about what = could have been taken out of our pocket for making a bad trade. "I've seen many more good trading systems than I have good traders..." Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com [mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com] Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 4:01 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Kelly, I saw the same things that you did. For me, it is always a struggle not = to chase those stocks that break out of a nice looking pattern, but don't having the fundies behind them. I am sure that many people probably make some money doing just that, but = I have also seen some of them drop way back down in a hurry. From what I = have seen over the fast few weeks is that many good stocks are breaking out, = you just need to stay focussed. Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com = =20 "Kelly Short" = =20 cc: = =20 Sent by: Subject: [CANSLIM] = Second Guessing Myself - SFCC =20 owner-canslim@lists.xm = =20 ission.com = =20 = =20 = =20 07/09/2003 03:40 PM = =20 Please respond to = =20 canslim = =20 = =20 = =20 I noticed today that SFCC is up 12% since breaking out on 7/8. I reevaluated my evaluation of this stock to see if perhaps I missed a CANSLIM candidate. I stand beside my decision not to pursue this stock because: Industry Score =3D 148/190 (and getting worse) Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth decelerating Quarterly Sales Growth Rates over the trailing four quarters negatively erradic compared to last year's Quarterly Sales Growth Rates Would anyone argue that I was too harsh in my review of this stock? Did anyone see a gem and get into the BO? I will greatly appreciate anyone's opinions. Thanks! Kelly - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 16:53:23 -0700 From: "Sally" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Hi Kelly- would you mind contacting me privately as well with more details re cwhcharts.com. Thanks- Sally - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Kelly Short Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 2:23 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Duncan, I am a cwhcharts.com subscriber and consider this tool they key behind my canslim trading success. I would not have been able to achieve my tremendous trading success without it. To not sound like a public endorsement of the service I will contact you privately with a personal summation of value. Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: Duncan Douglass [mailto:duncandouglass@earthlink.net] Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 5:34 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) I am a long time lurker on this list. I have recently re-dedicated myself to following a strict CANSLIM investing approach. As I have limited free time and can't do much more than glance through my IBD each day, I am intrigued by what cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) has to offer and the time it could potentially save in helping to create a watchlist and identify breakouts. I know a number of list participants subscribe to the various breakoutwatch.com services and I would greatly appreciate your thoughts (in public or private reply) on which level of service (if any) you recommend and whether you deem the service you use to be worth its cost. Thanks for your guidance. Duncan - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 20:38:28 EDT From: Vanchee1@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC - --part1_10c.26c49eda.2c3e0f84_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Kelly, being a holder of SFCC for a few months now and adding to my position just about 2 weeks ago I might take a different view. But this is what I see, first a ranking of 97/70 BAC, which I like. No dept., a low PE about 14 when I started buying, earning have been very good the last 3 quarters, a trend I like, and a good story on their expansion. We have to sometimes try to look out in advance at the direction of growth companies and try to beat the heard. As it now moves up I will keep raising my stop loss. - --part1_10c.26c49eda.2c3e0f84_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Kelly, being a holder of SFCC for a few months now and= adding to my position just about 2 weeks ago I might take a different view.= But this is what I see, first a ranking of 97/70 BAC, which I like. No dept= ., a low PE about 14 when I started buying, earning have been very good the=20= last 3 quarters, a trend I like, and a good story on their expansion. We hav= e to sometimes try to look out in advance at the direction of growth compani= es and try to beat the heard. As it now moves up I will keep raising my stop= loss. - --part1_10c.26c49eda.2c3e0f84_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 20:55:19 -0400 From: "joe" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] What went wrong! This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C3465C.682E5BB0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit why not just use the 50 day moving average as your stop? you would still be in and enjoying the ride. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of John Pyle Sent: Monday, July 07, 2003 8:44 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] What went wrong! As a educational experience I would like to offer a past trade and solicit feedback. I bought RYL in May for 53.53. I was stopped out with a trailing stop on 6/23 at 69.44. My questions are: 1. Was the trailing stop to high? 2. Does the chart pattern look like like the stock is just taking a breather? 3. What signal is used to buy back in? 4. Should I be happy with the priofit and move on to another stock with a propoer cwh pattern? John P. - ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C3465C.682E5BB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
why=20 not just use the 50 day moving average as your stop? you would still = be in and=20 enjoying the ride.
 
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of John Pyle
Sent: Monday, July 07, 2003 = 8:44=20 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: = [CANSLIM] What=20 went wrong!

As a educational experience I would = like to offer=20 a past trade and solicit feedback. I bought RYL in May for 53.53. I = was=20 stopped out with a trailing stop on 6/23 at 69.44. My questions=20 are:
 
1. Was the trailing stop to = high?
2. Does the chart pattern look like = like the=20 stock is just taking a breather?
3. What signal is used to buy back=20 in?
4. Should I be happy with the priofit = and move on=20 to another stock with a propoer cwh pattern?
 
John = P.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C3465C.682E5BB0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 19:14:22 -0700 (PDT) From: Tomas Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions about cwhcharts.com (now breakoutwatch.com) Duncan, Ever since I subscribed to cwhcharts.com, I do not actively keep track of a watchlist anymore. I used to go through the eBID every day looking good candidates. I look at "Stocks in the News", "Where the Money...", BID100, and so on. Now, I do not spend that much time looking for good candidates anymore. Thus, I have lots of free time now. It's definitely worth the subscription price (gold for me). Sometimes, I feel like I should do more mining instead of just waiting. tomas - --- Duncan Douglass wrote: > I am a long time lurker on this list. I have > recently re-dedicated myself to following a strict > CANSLIM investing approach. As I have limited free > time and can't do much more than glance through my > IBD each day, I am intrigued by what cwhcharts.com > (now breakoutwatch.com) has to offer and the time it > could potentially save in helping to create a > watchlist and identify breakouts. > > I know a number of list participants subscribe to > the various breakoutwatch.com services and I would > greatly appreciate your thoughts (in public or > private reply) on which level of service (if any) > you recommend and whether you deem the service you > use to be worth its cost. > > Thanks for your guidance. > > Duncan > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 19:19:48 -0700 (PDT) From: Tomas Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Kelly, I agree with you in regards to group strength, however, I think the other fundies a pretty good. Earnings and sales still looks good, even if decelerating. I was going to buy it, but it went past the 5%. just my $.02, tomas - --- michael_niemotka@baxter.com wrote: > > Kelly, > > I saw the same things that you did. For me, it is > always a struggle not to > chase those stocks that break out of a nice looking > pattern, but don't > having the fundies behind them. > > I am sure that many people probably make some money > doing just that, but I > have also seen some of them drop way back down in a > hurry. From what I have > seen over the fast few weeks is that many good > stocks are breaking out, you > just need to stay focussed. > > Mike > > Mike Niemotka , PE > Sr. Principal Engineer > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > Route 120 & Wilson Road > Round Lake, IL 60073 > Tel (847) 270-4075 > Fax (847) 270-4525 > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > > > "Kelly Short" > > > canslim@lists.xmission.com > > ris.com> cc: > > > Sent by: > Subject: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC > > owner-canslim@lists.xm > > > ission.com > > > > > > > > > 07/09/2003 03:40 PM > > > Please respond to > > > canslim > > > > > > > > > > > > > I noticed today that SFCC is up 12% since breaking > out on 7/8. I > reevaluated my evaluation of this stock to see if > perhaps I missed a > CANSLIM candidate. I stand beside my decision not to > pursue this stock > because: > > Industry Score = 148/190 (and getting worse) > Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth decelerating > Quarterly Sales Growth Rates over the trailing four > quarters negatively > erradic compared to last year's Quarterly Sales > Growth Rates > > Would anyone argue that I was too harsh in my review > of this stock? Did > anyone see a gem and get into the BO? > > I will greatly appreciate anyone's opinions. Thanks! > > Kelly > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2003 22:26:27 -0400 From: Roger Tawa Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Hi Mike, Over the last few weeks (since early to mid june), I have found the opposite: very few "good" stocks breaking out. This mostly likely just means we define "good" differently. This brings me to the real point of this email. I am new to CANSLIM and surely have much less experience that you do in investing. As a newbie, I find it easy to pick "perfect" stocks, ie. those that meet all required criteria. However, as soon as I see a stock that has one or two points that may be iffy (price below 15$, ROE not quite 17%, etc.), I don't know what to do about it. I suppose I'll have to learn by rolling the dice every once in a while on a less-than-perfect stock. Any comments from other newbie CANSLIMers on how you handle this? Thanks. ================================================= Roger Tawa http://tawacentral.net/ [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.] [When you stop, you're done.] -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of michael_niemotka@baxter.com Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 5:01 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Kelly, I saw the same things that you did. For me, it is always a struggle not to chase those stocks that break out of a nice looking pattern, but don't having the fundies behind them. I am sure that many people probably make some money doing just that, but I have also seen some of them drop way back down in a hurry. From what I have seen over the fast few weeks is that many good stocks are breaking out, you just need to stay focussed. Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Kelly Short" cc: Sent by: Subject: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC owner-canslim@lists.xm ission.com 07/09/2003 03:40 PM Please respond to canslim I noticed today that SFCC is up 12% since breaking out on 7/8. I reevaluated my evaluation of this stock to see if perhaps I missed a CANSLIM candidate. I stand beside my decision not to pursue this stock because: Industry Score = 148/190 (and getting worse) Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth decelerating Quarterly Sales Growth Rates over the trailing four quarters negatively erradic compared to last year's Quarterly Sales Growth Rates Would anyone argue that I was too harsh in my review of this stock? Did anyone see a gem and get into the BO? I will greatly appreciate anyone's opinions. Thanks! Kelly - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 19:59:54 -0700 (PDT) From: Tomas Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Roger, I agree with your comment about BOs. I have not seen not BO from good stocks the last 3-4 weeks. tomas - --- Roger Tawa wrote: > Hi Mike, > > Over the last few weeks (since early to mid june), I > have found the > opposite: very few "good" stocks breaking out. This > mostly likely just > means we define "good" differently. > > This brings me to the real point of this email. I > am new to CANSLIM and > surely have much less experience that you do in > investing. As a newbie, I > find it easy to pick "perfect" stocks, ie. those > that meet all required > criteria. However, as soon as I see a stock that > has one or two points that > may be iffy (price below 15$, ROE not quite 17%, > etc.), I don't know what to > do about it. I suppose I'll have to learn by > rolling the dice every once in > a while on a less-than-perfect stock. > > Any comments from other newbie CANSLIMers on how you > handle this? Thanks. > > ================================================= > Roger Tawa > http://tawacentral.net/ > [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.] > [When you stop, you're done.] > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf > Of > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 5:01 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC > > > Kelly, > > I saw the same things that you did. For me, it is > always a struggle not to > chase those stocks that break out of a nice looking > pattern, but don't > having the fundies behind them. > > I am sure that many people probably make some money > doing just that, but I > have also seen some of them drop way back down in a > hurry. From what I have > seen over the fast few weeks is that many good > stocks are breaking out, you > just need to stay focussed. > > Mike > > Mike Niemotka , PE > Sr. Principal Engineer > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > Route 120 & Wilson Road > Round Lake, IL 60073 > Tel (847) 270-4075 > Fax (847) 270-4525 > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > "Kelly Short" > canslim@lists.xmission.com > ris.com> cc: > Sent by: > Subject: [CANSLIM] > Second Guessing Myself - SFCC > owner-canslim@lists.xm > ission.com > > > 07/09/2003 03:40 PM > Please respond to > canslim > > > > > > > I noticed today that SFCC is up 12% since breaking > out on 7/8. I > reevaluated my evaluation of this stock to see if > perhaps I missed a > CANSLIM candidate. I stand beside my decision not to > pursue this stock > because: > > Industry Score = 148/190 (and getting worse) > Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth decelerating > Quarterly Sales Growth Rates over the trailing four > quarters negatively > erradic compared to last year's Quarterly Sales > Growth Rates > > Would anyone argue that I was too harsh in my review > of this stock? Did > anyone see a gem and get into the BO? > > I will greatly appreciate anyone's opinions. Thanks! > > Kelly > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2003 22:12:54 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Hi Roger, While I believe wholeheartedly in following a set of rules when trading, and particularly trading as a CANSLIM investor, I think that it is nearly impossible to find a stock or business that is "perfect" in every sense of the word. I think that it is more dangerous to take WON's guidelines and make them into a rigid set of go/nogo parameters and I don't believe that's what he intended. From the very first free IBD seminar that I went to many years ago, WON always talked about exceptions and each time I've seen him at a seminar or each time I've re-read his writings, I have understood that he is looking for a "preponderance of evidence" when determining whether or not to purchase a stock. My personal preference is to look first at the soundness of the base. I think that speaks most to the worthiness of a candidate. From there, I then look to see if the fundamentals show a preponderance of evidence of "a good company." Then I take a quick tour through news and significant developments to determine if there are any smoking guns lurking about. When fundamentals are a bit lacking in one or more areas, I take more time and skim the management discussion in the latest SEC filing. I then try to determine what makes the company tick, what makes it different from the competition. I determine who the company's direct competitors are and take a look at their charts. Lastly, I look at the industry itself to determine how other stocks are acting as a whole. This is primarily to determine if the industry as a whole is rolling over and/or if the leaders are rolling over and/or if the industry itself is rising in technical strength. But for the most part, this is a risk-assessment check, not a go/nogo parameter. - -Katherine Here are a couple of "Ask Bill" columns that show this "preponderance of evidence" approach: ===== Ask Bill O'Neil Archives Thursday, April 10, 2003 Q:"Many stocks breaking out lack some of the fundamentals you look for, such as ROE of 17%. Jacob's Engineering and Advance Neuromoduation are two examples. Do you wait for "perfection" or do you weigh the pros and cons and go for it?" - - Submitted from Fullerton, Calif. A: Generally, we will weigh the pluses and minuses if the stock is not a perfect fit and "go for it," as you say. ANSI's return on equity is currently unreported for 2002, but 2001 came in at 5.4%, which is an improvement over 2000's 2.1% return on equity. In this case, given that all other factors are fairly strong, we would accept the fact that return on equity is improving, although it does not meet the optimal level we would prefer. However, if we compared ANSI with, for example, ZMH, another stock in the same group, we might decide to choose ZMH based on its 115.9% return on equity, assuming all other factors are equal and ZMH is at a proper buy point. The other example you cite, JEC, is showing a return on equity of 17.1% — very strong and very desirable — but earnings are growing in the mid-teens over the past four quarters. However, we might take into account the fact that JEC is a steady earnings performer, something that is at a premium in the current environment, and may benefit from current trends in that industry. So, again, we are weighing pluses and minuses and "going for it." ===== Ask Bill O'Neil Archives Wednesday, July 9, 2003 Q: "If a company with good fundamentals breaks out and becomes a leader but its peer group is lagging, is it still a good idea to follow it? NTE is an example." - - Submitted from Wilmington, N.C. A: Sometimes, a company may have unique characteristics, and the stock does well even if its industry group lags. In the case of Nam Tai Electronics (NTE), maybe it's the fact it manufactures electronic components for major global companies in China. China is enjoying tremendous growth right now. Once a stock is purchased properly as it breaks out of a sound base and has solid fundamentals, you should base a decision to sell only on the action of price and volume. Right now, Nam Tai looks positive. ===== - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Roger Tawa Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 8:26 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Hi Mike, Over the last few weeks (since early to mid june), I have found the opposite: very few "good" stocks breaking out. This mostly likely just means we define "good" differently. This brings me to the real point of this email. I am new to CANSLIM and surely have much less experience that you do in investing. As a newbie, I find it easy to pick "perfect" stocks, ie. those that meet all required criteria. However, as soon as I see a stock that has one or two points that may be iffy (price below 15$, ROE not quite 17%, etc.), I don't know what to do about it. I suppose I'll have to learn by rolling the dice every once in a while on a less-than-perfect stock. Any comments from other newbie CANSLIMers on how you handle this? Thanks. ================================================= Roger Tawa http://tawacentral.net/ [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.] [When you stop, you're done.] -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of michael_niemotka@baxter.com Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2003 5:01 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC Kelly, I saw the same things that you did. For me, it is always a struggle not to chase those stocks that break out of a nice looking pattern, but don't having the fundies behind them. I am sure that many people probably make some money doing just that, but I have also seen some of them drop way back down in a hurry. From what I have seen over the fast few weeks is that many good stocks are breaking out, you just need to stay focussed. Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Kelly Short" cc: Sent by: Subject: [CANSLIM] Second Guessing Myself - SFCC owner-canslim@lists.xm ission.com 07/09/2003 03:40 PM Please respond to canslim I noticed today that SFCC is up 12% since breaking out on 7/8. I reevaluated my evaluation of this stock to see if perhaps I missed a CANSLIM candidate. I stand beside my decision not to pursue this stock because: Industry Score = 148/190 (and getting worse) Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth decelerating Quarterly Sales Growth Rates over the trailing four quarters negatively erradic compared to last year's Quarterly Sales Growth Rates Would anyone argue that I was too harsh in my review of this stock? Did anyone see a gem and get into the BO? I will greatly appreciate anyone's opinions. Thanks! Kelly - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3409 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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