From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3464 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, August 6 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3464 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 6 Aug 2003 11:35:03 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0507_01C35C0E.C74B3C40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable DMC, how about you point us to a chart that passes your criteria? Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 10:10 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK--Volume Studies One problem with threads and email lists is the topics tend to lack follow-through. The newest hot topic or stock du jour takes over the airspace and previous topics disappear. Perhaps they should, but I = think the HITK education is out there for people who want to take the time = to understand why this stock which gapped and crapped was an unlikely = delight at $25, $26 or "under $25". One problem with getting your list of = MILSCANs and IBD 100 stocks is you tend to love them long after their = usefulness has evaporated (or long before they become useful again). First off, if you can part with some pi$tole$, may I suggest buying = Donald Cassidy's Trading with Volume. As you can see from the reviews, some = people think it's great, some think it doesn't tell you anything new. I = think for $25 and a few hours of dedicated reading it's pretty good insurance = against buying an exhaustion gap or jumping in to buy HITK as it's crumbling. = If it saves you one bad trade (guaranteed to save you more, but . . .) = then it's worth about 10 times the purchase price. It's generally not available = in libraries: = http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0071376046/qid=3D1060182177= /sr=3D1 = - -1/ref=3Dsr_1_1/102-9779625-0378563?v=3Dglance&s=3Dbooks#product-details Those who trade on price alone are like people who fly airplanes on visibility alone. Or maybe trying to trade on price action alone is = like trying to speak a foreign language with nothing but tons of = vocabulary--no grammar, no semantic rules, no idioms, just a lot of words. If you've = ever encountered a newly arrived foreign student in the hard sciences you = get the drift. Volume is a key and crucial instrument. It's really too bad = we can trade volume as well as price (that is, buy options on volume levels, = rather than just price levels), but there's probably no efficient way to do = it. Otoh, using volume to understand price is key. Another useful thing is just to scroll down this note, starting at the bottom and noting the dates. If you have a dual screen setup, you = might put the daily or 60 minute chart of HITK up against it, and try to see = what was going on at what point in the conversation. HITK is continuing its short, squat candlestick march on low volume, = down below $23 as I type. How long will the bleeding last? Who knows, but = at this angle and with this momentum (volume) it can be excruciating. = How will it end? Impossible to say, but a likely scenario will be the = wholesale dumping of shares if $20 doesn't hold. I don't see it holding. I = think it could collapse tomorrow or the next day, then we might have an "echo" = of the plunge from $40 to $25, with a little boost up to 28 (and all the = bullish chatter) before it finds its proper bottom. Check now the widening of = the Bollinger bands on the bottom side, giving this thing plenty of space = to run. So, let's take another look around 8/15 to see if it has fallen = through 20 to 15 and bounced. Looking out longer term, on the weekly chart, you = can see some support at $10 and what looks like rock bottom fisher/vulture carcass at around $7-8. So, short term support at $20, $15; medium = term support at $10 and an "event" or crushingly bad market could take us = to $7. DMC ----- Original Message ----- From: "DMC197807" To: Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 8:56 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > Perhaps members of the group will find it educational to follow HITK = for a > little while longer. Nobody has a crystal ball on these things, but > experience has taught me the hard way that not paying attention to = price > action and volume can be costly. > > As I opined earlier, this chart pattern is a very familiar, broken = stock > picture. Volume keeps fading away as buyers back away from this = name and > holders are just beginning to get the picture that the bleeding has = only > begun, and hasn't begun to stop yet. We've now crossed up above the = 200 dma > very weakly and fallen back down through it. I'd expect this stock = to stay > below the 200 dma for a significant amount of time from now on, long = after > all the averages complete their southerly curves. Since there are = few > buyers it won't take many sellers to show up, dump their shares and = get out. > That accounts for the small but steady march south. The Bollinger = Bands > have now widened significantly; when a stock is rallying it can = climb along > the upper band for a long time; the same happens on the bottom band = when > it's falling. The bottom band is pointed directly toward $15 right = now; I > see no reason why, given enough time this summer, it won't achieve = and then > overshoot that number. If HITK had options, I'd be buying puts = here. If I > was an HITK owner, I'd get out at any price right now. > > DMC > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "DMC197807" > To: > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:05 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > > Fanus, > > > > Thanks for your note. Each of us has his own system. Back in May = I > traded > > HITK off the center of the Bollinger bands for a bounce which I = got and I > > was monitoring it off shorter time frame charts. The mistake I = made was > not > > holding on for the ride further up, but I was leaving for 10 days = on the > > East Coast and couldn't afford to keep the position open, so I = left with > > 9.3% gain in 7 days. If I can annualize that gain it's better = than 300% > per > > year, so I like it. I kept a tight stop on the position so maybe = your > > calculation of the risk wasn't mine. > > > > Everyone looks at risk and reward differently. You may see a = stock which > > can rise up to 35 or 40 fairly easily (the reward) but I see a = broken > chart > > and the likelihood of that happening as very, very slim. More = likely, > given > > the pattern, is for the stock to pause and hiccup and continue to = break > > down. Or it could stabilize and idle here at the $22-28 range for = a > while. > > However, there have been a lot of buyers on the way up to $49 and = not all > of > > them have sold. It often takes several days for the totality of a = drop > from > > 49 to 25 to sink in. A lot of people hope it will recover, a lot = try to > > trade out, but in the end the weight of the chart often produces = the > > inevitable. > > > > Another way to look at your calculation is to try to figure out = the > > probabilities within a given time frame (let's take 2 weeks, or 10 trading > > days) of your two speculation scenarios to play out: 1) drops to = 23? > this > > is highly likely, imho, given the ATR where it is, call it 2-1; or = 2) > rises > > to 35 or 40? this is a 40-1 shot, to me, in this time period, or = worse. > So > > you calculate the value of the two and, with the stock where it is = now, > > 26.50, you have a 50% chance of losing $3.50, or -1.75, and a 2.5% chance > of > > it rising to 35, or $0.87, so I wouldn't take your approach, not = even with > > your money. > > > > What is the better approach? Patience, let the plunge work = through its > > natural progression. > > > > This is what makes a market, though. Regards, > > > > DMC > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Fanus" > > To: > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 10:19 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > > > > > I haven't look at the CANSLIM characteristics, but > > > risk/reward look pretty good to me. > > > > > > If one trade it as a bounce off the 200DMA, then your > > > stop can be just below it. Say around 23.00. You > > > could have entered around 25.30 this morning, risking > > > 2.30. If I was trading it, I would expect it to > > > possibly stall at resistance around 35 to 40 which > > > would be my profit target. A profit target of about > > > 9.7 to 14.7. Risking 2.3 to get 9.7 is a risk/reward > > > ratio of 1/4.2. Risking 1 dollar to make 4.2. Good > > > enough for me. > > > > > > You mentioned that you bought HITK at 5/30/03 at > > > 34.20. From my side, I do not see significant support > > > close by, or a logical place to put a stop loss other > > > than the 50DMA which were at 30.74 on that date. A > > > risk of 3.46. You sold on 6/5 at 37.47; a profit of > > > 3.27. So you risk 3.46 to make 3.27, a risk/reward > > > ratio of 1/0.95. Risking 1 dollar to make 0.95. > > > > > > In my books, an entry now is much less risky than your > > > entry on 5/30. > > > > > > Regards > > > - Fanus > > > > > > > > > --- DMC197807 wrote: > > > > MessageGene, > > > > > > > > I understood that. However, I think it's > > > > hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely) > > > > from signals generated by newsletters and stock > > > > pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads. I > > > > assume you are out of HITK at this point? > > > > > > > > My comments were and are limited to trying to grasp > > > > the total risk-reward on the name as indicated by > > > > the chart. Still too risky for me, maybe not for > > > > others. When the charts come into alignment, then > > > > money is made more easily, although not without > > > > risk. > > > > > > > > I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of May by > > > > following my discipline (bot 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5 > > > > at 37.47), and it was this experience which caught > > > > my attention with your post. > > > > > > > > HITK may close this week higher or lower, and at > > > > that point it may still not be a good speculation, > > > > for my money. > > > > > > > > Good luck, > > > > > > > > DMC > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: Gene Ricci > > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 AM > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > > > > > > > > > > DMC, if you'll go back to my original email you'll > > > > see that I was making an observation ... and passing > > > > it on to potential holders of HITK .... based on a > > > > buy signal from ChangeWave. > > > > > > > > 'If you still own HITK there may be a light in the > > > > tunnel.' > > > > > > > > In the meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it > > > > this morning (going long)... after the opening > > > > pullback... > > > > > > > > Gene > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: DMC197807 > > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:01 AM > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > > > > > > > > > > Gene, > > > > > > > > Two thoughts come to mind. First is a ski area > > > > I frequent. Just below the highest lift are some > > > > cliffs which are out of bounds by regulation and > > > > also by dint of pure reason: they look like > > > > suicide. However, on any thick powder day there are > > > > a number of youth with their snowboards and skis > > > > doing the "extreme thing." For some reason only 2 > > > > people have gotten killed there in my memory, and a > > > > few bad accidents, but mostly these yahoos make it > > > > through. It doesn't mean it isn't an absurd risk to > > > > take, but there you are. > > > > > > > > Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it safe to > > > > buy? > > > > > > > > Second is: what is volume during normal trading > > > > and what is volume during a selloff? Clearly HITK > > > > is in a selloff, so I like to look at something like > > > > 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) rather > > > > than 60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is > > > > 583,000, but the most recent 8 days have coughed up > > > > about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day. I > > > > was looking at HITK early today and was surprised > > > > that the first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce > > > > more volume. It's now 2.5 hours into the trading > > > > day and it's still at 330,000 shares. > > > > > > > > I think today is simply a pause on the way down. > > > > I have no money in this name now and only look at > > > > it to determine when, on a trading basis, the reward > > > > might outweigh the risk. That event might not > > > > happen for several weeks and might take place at a > > > > higher price than today's (in fact, could easily do > > > > so). > > > > > > > > Mostly I think of this endeavor as the opposite > > > > of even recreational skiing. We want to find the > > > > easiest, most risk free way of having fun (making > > > > $$), not the adrenaline rushed version. If this > > > > were a ski slope, my scans would be scouting for not > > > > black diamond slopes or blue slopes. Unlike skiing, > > > > here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and even > > > > yellow bunny hop slopes. > > > > > > > > Good luck, > > > > > > > > DMC > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: Gene Ricci > > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 7:35 AM > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > > > > > > > > > > The power of the newsletter assumes control... > > > > up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume already. > > > > > > > > Gene > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: DMC197807 > > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > > > > > > > > > > Technically your risk/reward on this name > > > > would be skewed toward risk at this point. The > > > > chart shows no stopping yet, volume is still high > > > > and the daily patterns are bearish. The price > > > > dropped right through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is > > > > below any support on the daily (there looks like > > > > some support at $20 on the weekly). If $20 holds, > > > > who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat > > > > 20% loss? > > > > > > > > I don't actually see why $20 should hold for > > > > more than a pause, anyway. To me there's no sense > > > > in looking for "bad news," it's all in the chart > > > > right now. > > > > > > > > JMHO, > > > > > > > > DMC > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: Gene Ricci > > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > > > > > > > > > > If you still own HITK there may be a light > > > > in the tunnel. Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an > > > > alert to his 300,000 (?) subscribers to buy HITK on > > > > 7/25. Looking at the chart shows that the price > > > > dropped down and stabilized at its 200-day moving > > > > average at $23.14 before bouncing higher. It closed > > > > at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible shortfall > > > > because of seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't > > > > find any other bad news. Anyone know of any other > > > > issues? > > > > > > > > Thanks, > > > > Gene > > > > > > > > I was forwarded the following; > > > > > > > > A price under $25 is a great entry point > > > > for this dual > > > > generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise > > > > from the momentum > > > > buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned > > > > out with the huge volume > > > > sales, so now it's time to build or add to > > > > your positions to get to > > > > a $25 cost basis. I still think we can > > > > hold on for a $50 value at > > > > the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings > > > > in 2004. > > > > > > > > Let's lower the buy under for HITK to $25. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > __________________________________ > > > Do you Yahoo!? > > > Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software > > > http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0507_01C35C0E.C74B3C40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
DMC, how about you point us to = a chart that=20 passes your criteria?
 
Gene
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DMC197807
Sent: Wednesday, August 06, = 2003 10:10=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK--Volume=20 Studies

One problem with threads and email lists is the topics = tend to=20 lack
follow-through.  The newest hot topic or stock du jour = takes over=20 the
airspace and previous topics disappear.  Perhaps they = should, but=20 I think
the HITK education is out there for people who want to take = the=20 time to
understand why this stock which gapped and crapped was an = unlikely=20 delight
at $25, $26 or "under $25".  One problem with getting = your=20 list of MILSCANs
and IBD 100 stocks is you tend to love them long = after=20 their usefulness has
evaporated (or long before they become useful=20 again).

First off, if you can part with some pi$tole$, may I = suggest=20 buying Donald
Cassidy's Trading with Volume.  As you can see = from the=20 reviews, some people
think it's great, some think it doesn't tell = you=20 anything new.   I think for
$25 and a few hours of = dedicated=20 reading it's pretty good insurance against
buying an exhaustion gap = or=20 jumping in to buy HITK as it's crumbling.  If it
saves you one = bad=20 trade (guaranteed to save you more, but .  .  .) then = it's
worth=20 about 10 times the purchase price.  It's generally not available=20 in
libraries:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0071376046= /qid=3D1060182177/sr=3D1
-1/ref=3Dsr_1_1/102-9779625-0378563?v=3Dg= lance&s=3Dbooks#product-details

Those=20 who trade on price alone are like people who fly airplanes = on
visibility=20 alone.  Or maybe trying to trade on price action alone is = like
trying=20 to speak a foreign language with nothing but tons of=20 vocabulary--no
grammar, no semantic rules, no idioms, just a lot of = words.  If you've ever
encountered a newly arrived foreign = student in=20 the hard sciences you get the
drift.  Volume is a key and = crucial=20 instrument.  It's really too bad we can
trade volume as well = as price=20 (that is, buy options on volume levels, rather
than just price = levels), but=20 there's probably no efficient way to do it.
Otoh, using volume to=20 understand price is key.

Another useful thing is just to scroll = down=20 this note, starting at the
bottom and noting the dates.  If = you have a=20 dual screen setup, you might put
the daily or 60 minute chart of = HITK up=20 against it, and try to see what was
going on at what point in the=20 conversation.

HITK is continuing its short, squat candlestick = march on=20 low volume, down
below $23 as I type.  How long will the = bleeding=20 last?  Who knows, but at
this angle and with this momentum = (volume) it=20 can be excruciating.  How will
it end?  Impossible to = say, but a=20 likely scenario will be the wholesale
dumping of shares if $20 = doesn't=20 hold.  I don't see it holding.  I think it
could collapse = tomorrow or the next day, then we might have an "echo" of = the
plunge from=20 $40 to $25, with a little boost up to 28 (and all the = bullish
chatter)=20 before it finds its proper bottom.  Check now the widening of=20 the
Bollinger bands on the bottom side, giving this thing plenty of = space=20 to
run.

So, let's take another look around 8/15 to see if it = has=20 fallen through 20
to 15 and bounced.  Looking out longer term, = on the=20 weekly chart, you can
see some support at $10 and what looks like = rock=20 bottom fisher/vulture
carcass at around $7-8.  So, short term = support=20 at $20, $15; medium term
support at $10 and an "event" or = crushingly bad=20 market could take us to $7.

DMC

----- Original Message=20 -----
From: "DMC197807" <dmc197807@comcast.net>
To= :=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Monday, August 04, 2003 8:56 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK


>=20 Perhaps members of the group will find it educational to follow HITK = for=20 a
> little while longer.  Nobody has a crystal ball on = these=20 things, but
> experience has taught me the hard way that not = paying=20 attention to price
> action and volume can be = costly.
>
> As=20 I opined earlier, this chart pattern is a very familiar, broken = stock
>=20 picture.  Volume keeps fading away as buyers back away from this = name=20 and
> holders are just beginning to get the picture that the = bleeding=20 has only
> begun, and hasn't begun to stop yet.  We've now = crossed=20 up above the 200
dma
> very weakly and fallen back down = through=20 it.  I'd expect this stock to
stay
> below the 200 dma = for a=20 significant amount of time from now on, long after
> all the = averages=20 complete their southerly curves.  Since there are few
> = buyers it=20 won't take many sellers to show up, dump their shares and = get
out.
>=20 That accounts for the small but steady march south.  The = Bollinger=20 Bands
> have now widened significantly; when a stock is rallying = it can=20 climb
along
> the upper band for a long time; the same = happens on the=20 bottom band when
> it's falling.  The bottom band is = pointed=20 directly toward $15 right now; I
> see no reason why, given = enough time=20 this summer, it won't achieve and
then
> overshoot that = number. =20 If HITK had options, I'd be buying puts here.  If
I
> = was an=20 HITK owner, I'd get out at any price right now.
>
>=20 DMC
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: = "DMC197807"=20 <dmc197807@comcast.net>
&g= t; To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:05 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20 HITK
>
>
> > Fanus,
> >
> > = Thanks for=20 your note.  Each of us has his own system.  Back in May = I
>=20 traded
> > HITK off the center of the Bollinger bands for a = bounce=20 which I got and
I
> > was monitoring it off shorter time = frame=20 charts.  The mistake I made was
> not
> > holding = on for=20 the ride further up, but I was leaving for 10 days on the
> > = East=20 Coast and couldn't afford to keep the position open, so I left = with
>=20 > 9.3% gain in 7 days.  If I can annualize that gain it's = better than=20 300%
> per
> > year, so I like it.  I kept a tight = stop on=20 the position so maybe your
> > calculation of the risk wasn't = mine.
> >
> > Everyone looks at risk and reward=20 differently.  You may see a stock
which
> > can rise = up to 35=20 or 40 fairly easily (the reward) but I see a broken
> = chart
> >=20 and the likelihood of that happening as very, very slim.  More=20 likely,
> given
> > the pattern, is for the stock to = pause and=20 hiccup and continue to break
> > down.  Or it could = stabilize=20 and idle here at the $22-28 range for a
> while.
> > = However,=20 there have been a lot of buyers on the way up to $49 and = not
all
>=20 of
> > them have sold.  It often takes several days for = the=20 totality of a drop
> from
> > 49 to 25 to sink = in.  A lot=20 of people hope it will recover, a lot try to
> > trade out, = but in=20 the end the weight of the chart often produces the
> >=20 inevitable.
> >
> > Another way to look at your = calculation=20 is to try to figure out the
> > probabilities within a given = time=20 frame (let's take 2 weeks, or 10
trading
> > days) of your = two=20 speculation scenarios to play out:  1) drops to 23?
> = this
>=20 > is highly likely, imho, given the ATR where it is, call it 2-1; = or=20 2)
> rises
> > to 35 or 40?  this is a 40-1 shot, = to me,=20 in this time period, or worse.
> So
> > you calculate = the value=20 of the two and, with the stock where it is now,
> > 26.50, = you have a=20 50% chance of losing $3.50, or -1.75, and a 2.5%
chance
> = of
>=20 > it rising to 35, or $0.87, so I wouldn't take your approach, not=20 even
with
> > your money.
> >
> > What = is the=20 better approach?  Patience, let the plunge work through = its
> >=20 natural progression.
> >
> > This is what makes a = market,=20 though.  Regards,
> >
> > DMC
> = >
>=20 >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> = > From:=20 "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com>
> = > To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 10:19 AM
> > Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 HITK
> >
> >
> > > I haven't look at the = CANSLIM=20 characteristics, but
> > > risk/reward look pretty good to = me.
> > >
> > > If one trade it as a bounce = off the=20 200DMA, then your
> > > stop can be just below it.  = Say=20 around 23.00.  You
> > > could have entered around = 25.30 this=20 morning, risking
> > > 2.30.  If I was trading it, I = would=20 expect it to
> > > possibly stall at resistance around 35 = to 40=20 which
> > > would be my profit target.  A profit = target of=20 about
> > > 9.7 to 14.7.  Risking 2.3 to get 9.7 is a = risk/reward
> > > ratio of 1/4.2.   Risking 1 = dollar to=20 make 4.2. Good
> > > enough for me.
> > = >
> >=20 > You mentioned that you bought HITK at 5/30/03 at
> > = > 34.20.=20 From my side,  I do not see significant support
> > > = close=20 by, or a logical place to put a stop loss other
> > > than = the=20 50DMA which were at 30.74 on that date.  A
> > > risk = of=20 3.46.  You sold on 6/5 at 37.47; a profit of
> > > = 3.27. So=20 you risk 3.46 to make 3.27, a risk/reward
> > > ratio of=20 1/0.95.  Risking 1 dollar to make 0.95.
> > >
> = >=20 > In my books, an entry now is much less risky than your
> = > >=20 entry on 5/30.
> > >
> > > Regards
> = > > -=20 Fanus
> > >
> > >
> > > --- = DMC197807=20 <dmc197807@comcast.net>=20 wrote:
> > > > MessageGene,
> > > = >
> >=20 > > I understood that.  However, I think it's
> > = >=20 > hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely)
> > = > >=20 from signals generated by newsletters and stock
> > > > = pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads.  I
> > = > >=20 assume you are out of HITK at this point?
> > > = >
> >=20 > > My comments were and are limited to trying to grasp
> = >=20 > > the total risk-reward on the name as indicated by
> = > >=20 > the chart.  Still too risky for me, maybe not for
> = > >=20 > others.  When the charts come into alignment, then
> = > >=20 > money is made more easily, although not without
> > > = >=20 risk.
> > > >
> > > > I took $3+ out of = HITK at=20 the end of May by
> > > > following my discipline (bot = 5/30 at=20 34.20, sold 6/5
> > > > at 37.47), and it was this = experience=20 which caught
> > > > my attention with your = post.
> >=20 > >
> > > > HITK may close this week higher or = lower, and=20 at
> > > > that point it may still not be a good=20 speculation,
> > > > for my money.
> > >=20 >
> > > > Good luck,
> > > >
> = >=20 > > DMC
> > > >
> > > >
> = > >=20 >   ----- Original Message -----
> > >=20 >   From: Gene Ricci
> > > >   = To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 > > >   Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 AM
> = >=20 > >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> > >=20 >
> > > >
> > > >   DMC, if = you'll=20 go back to my original email you'll
> > > > see that I = was=20 making an observation ... and passing
> > > > it on to=20 potential holders of HITK .... based on a
> > > > buy = signal=20 from ChangeWave.
> > > >
> > > = >   'If=20 you still own HITK there may be a light in the
> > > >=20 tunnel.'
> > > >
> > > >   In = the=20 meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it
> > > > this = morning=20 (going long)... after the opening
> > > > = pullback...
>=20 > > >
> > > >   Gene
> > = >=20 >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >=20 >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >=20 >   ----- Original Message -----
> > >=20 >     From: DMC197807
> > >=20 >     To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 > > >     Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 = 11:01=20 AM
> > > >     Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> > >=20 >     Gene,
> > > >
> > = >=20 >     Two thoughts come to mind.  First is = a ski=20 area
> > > > I frequent.  Just below the highest = lift are=20 some
> > > > cliffs which are out of bounds by = regulation=20 and
> > > > also by dint of pure reason:  they = look=20 like
> > > > suicide.  However, on any thick = powder day=20 there are
> > > > a number of youth with their = snowboards and=20 skis
> > > > doing the "extreme thing."  For some = reason=20 only 2
> > > > people have gotten killed there in my = memory,=20 and a
> > > > few bad accidents, but mostly these = yahoos make=20 it
> > > > through.  It doesn't mean it isn't an = absurd=20 risk to
> > > > take, but there you are.
> > = >=20 >
> > > >     Is HITK still a = falling=20 knife, or is it safe to
> > > > buy?
> > >=20 >
> > > >     Second is: what is = volume=20 during normal trading
> > > > and what is volume during = a=20 selloff?  Clearly HITK
> > > > is in a selloff, so = I like=20 to look at something like
> > > > 10 day volume (or = volume=20 since the plunge) rather
> > > > than 60-day=20 volume.   Here the 60-day volume is
> > > > = 583,000,=20 but the most recent 8 days have coughed up
> > > > = about 10=20 million shares, or 1.25 million per day.  I
> > > = > was=20 looking at HITK early today and was surprised
> > > > = that the=20 first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce
> > > > more=20 volume.  It's now 2.5 hours into the trading
> > > = > day=20 and it's still at 330,000 shares.
> > > >
> > = >=20 >     I think today is simply a pause on the = way=20 down.
> > > >  I have no money in this name now = and only=20 look at
> > > > it to determine when, on a trading = basis, the=20 reward
> > > > might outweigh the risk.  That = event might=20 not
> > > > happen for several weeks and might take = place at=20 a
> > > > higher price than today's (in fact, could = easily=20 do
> > > > so).
> > > >
> > = >=20 >     Mostly I think of this endeavor as the=20 opposite
> > > > of even recreational skiing.  We = want to=20 find the
> > > > easiest, most risk free way of having = fun=20 (making
> > > > $$), not the adrenaline rushed = version. =20 If this
> > > > were a ski slope, my scans would be = scouting=20 for not
> > > > black diamond slopes or blue = slopes. =20 Unlike skiing,
> > > > here I'm on the hunt for easy = green=20 slopes and even
> > > > yellow bunny hop = slopes.
> >=20 > >
> > > >     Good = luck,
>=20 > > >
> > > >     = DMC
> >=20 > >       ----- Original Message=20 -----
> > > >       From: = Gene=20 Ricci
> > > >       To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 > > >       Sent: Monday, July = 28, 2003=20 7:35 AM
> > > >       = Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] HITK
> > > >
> > > = >
> >=20 > >       The power of the = newsletter=20 assumes control...
> > > > up 6% and 1/3 of the daily = volume=20 already.
> > > >
> > >=20 >       Gene
> > >=20 >         ----- Original = Message=20 -----
> > > = >        =20 From: DMC197807
> > >=20 >         To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 > > >         Sent: = Saturday,=20 July 26, 2003 10:35 PM
> > >=20 >         Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> > >=20 >         Technically your=20 risk/reward on this name
> > > > would be skewed toward = risk at=20 this point.  The
> > > > chart shows no stopping = yet,=20 volume is still high
> > > > and the daily patterns are = bearish.  The price
> > > > dropped right through = the 200=20 day EMA (25.85), is
> > > > below any support on the = daily=20 (there looks like
> > > > some support at $20 on the=20 weekly).  If $20 holds,
> > > > who's interested = in buying=20 for a quick off the bat
> > > > 20% loss?
> > = >=20 >
> > > = >         I=20 don't actually see why $20 should hold for
> > > > more = than a=20 pause, anyway.  To me there's no sense
> > > > in = looking=20 for "bad news," it's all in the chart
> > > > right=20 now.
> > > >
> > >=20 >         JMHO,
> = > >=20 >
> > > = >        =20 DMC
> > > >
> > > >
> > >=20 >
> > >=20 >           ----- = Original Message -----
> > >=20 >           From: = Gene=20 Ricci
> > >=20 >           To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 > > = >          =20 Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM
> > >=20 >           = Subject:=20 [CANSLIM] HITK
> > > >
> > > >
> = > >=20 >           If = you still=20 own HITK there may be a light
> > > > in the tunnel. = Change=20 Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an
> > > > alert to his 300,000 = (?)=20 subscribers to buy HITK on
> > > > 7/25. Looking at the = chart=20 shows that the price
> > > > dropped down and = stabilized at its=20 200-day moving
> > > > average at $23.14 before = bouncing=20 higher. It closed
> > > > at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than = a=20 possible shortfall
> > > > because of seasonal cough = medicine=20 sales I couldn't
> > > > find any other bad news. = Anyone know=20 of any other
> > > > issues?
> > > = >
>=20 > > = >          =20 Thanks,
> > >=20 >           = Gene
>=20 > > >
> > >=20 >           I was = forwarded the following;
> > > >
> > >=20 >           A = price under=20 $25 is a great entry point
> > > > for this = dual
> >=20 > >          =20 generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise
> > > > from = the=20 momentum
> > >=20 >          =20 buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned
> > > > out = with the=20 huge volume
> > >=20 >           = sales, so now=20 it's time to build or add to
> > > > your positions to = get=20 to
> > >=20 >           a $25 = cost=20 basis. I still think we can
> > > > hold on for a $50 = value=20 at
> > >=20 >           the = end of=20 2004 on $2 per share earnings
> > > > in 2004.
> = >=20 > >
> > >=20 >           Let's = lower=20 the buy under for HITK to $25.
> > > >
> > = >=20 >
> > > >
> > >
> > = >
> >=20 > __________________________________
> > > Do you=20 Yahoo!?
> > > Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web = site=20 design software
> > > http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com>=20 > >
> > > -
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