From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3489 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, August 8 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3489 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR RE: [CANSLIM] stock software Re: [CANSLIM] CLZR ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 7 Aug 2003 19:44:09 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hi Fabio, Here are a couple of charts so that you can see the technical action. First, a weekly chart that shows how CLZR rose from it's double bottom late last year: http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/CLZR080103Wkly.JPG Notice where the latest valid base formed and where CLZR made a definite move above it at about $10: http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/CLZR080703.JPG As you can see, your entry on 7/22 was at a price that was significantly extended from the prior base, meaning that the risk that the stock could easily fall back was extremely high. In other words, you had no wiggle room. Notice also, that when you entered on 7/22 that the stock's 50 and 200 day moving averages had diverged significantly. That's another visual clue to let you know that the stock is extended. I call it the "rubberband effect." In other words, you don't really know how long these kinds of moves can go on, but once the stock is extended too far to the upside, the rubberband snaps and the price returns to a more normal pattern of ascent. That pullback in this case could easily take the stock as low as $10 (back to the top of the previous valid base), or could snap it back to an intermediate term area of support (the 50 day moving average). There's really no way to know how far it will snap, but the psychology of the market (profit taking) will most certainly see the stock fall before rising further. Given that the market as a whole has had more than it's share of distribution days, the liklihood that it would happen was even higher. I'd say the very best lesson learned on this one is to be more diligent about reading the chart and finding an optimal entry point. For example, if you'd entered this stock on 4/30 when it broke out at about $10, worse case, you'd have been able to exit the stock with a modest gain. Next lesson is to be sure to look at the chart and be sure you understand where your exit point will be if the price action moves against you. Whether you use a 7-8% stop loss or something more technically driven, you'll know when to pull the plug next time before it gets away from you. As a side note, the 7-8% stop loss is optimized for entries *at the breakout* not at extended prices, so beware! One can still lose their shirt 8% at a time, it just takes longer. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 6:49 PM To: kmalm@earthlink.net Cc: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hi Katherine and Hi all,, Thanks a lot for the constructive feedback. To answer Katherine's question I had bought CLZR shares on the 22 of july. I will be more careful next time and cut the loss at 7-8%. Simply I didn't expect CLZR to fall so sharply in such a short time. Thanks again and best regards Fabio - -----Original Message----- From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net] Sent: 07 August 2003 23:52 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hi Fabio, You mentioned that you bought CLZR a couple of days ago. If you don't mind, would you tell us exactly what date? I think the easiest way to "explain" CLZR is for us to show your entry vs. an "optimal" entry and then show why an "optimal" entry would have provided some "wiggle room" for your position. That should also help explain why it is far less important to know the "reason" for the drop than the explanation as to what can happen technically to a stock. For the most part, nobody ever knows the reason until after the fact, so this might be a good chance to learn why good entries are so important. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 3:25 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hello,, I'm a newbie to CANSLIM. I bought CLZR (Candela Inc.) shares a few days ago after studying WON book a while but they have dropped about 20% between today and yesterday. I tried to find some "bad news" around the company but couldn't find any. Do you think it's just institutional investors pulling out or is there any other underlying reason for that that you can spot ? Thanks a lot for any feedack Best regards Fabio - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 Aug 2003 23:06:12 -0400 From: "joe" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR Always have a stop loss in place! I got stopped out of clzr at 16, and = if it wasn't for the stop loss I would have taken a bath. Looks like it crossed the 50 ema and heading for the 200 ema. I wouldn't want to be long in this stock. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 7:49 PM To: kmalm@earthlink.net Cc: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR=20 Hi Katherine and Hi all,, Thanks a lot for the constructive feedback. To answer Katherine's question I had bought CLZR shares on the 22 of = july. I will be more careful next time and cut the loss at 7-8%. Simply I didn't expect CLZR to fall so sharply in such a short time. Thanks again and best regards Fabio =20 - -----Original Message----- From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net] Sent: 07 August 2003 23:52 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR=20 Hi Fabio, You mentioned that you bought CLZR a couple of days ago. If you don't = mind, would you tell us exactly what date? I think the easiest way to = "explain" CLZR is for us to show your entry vs. an "optimal" entry and then show = why an "optimal" entry would have provided some "wiggle room" for your = position. That should also help explain why it is far less important to know the "reason" for the drop than the explanation as to what can happen = technically to a stock. For the most part, nobody ever knows the reason until after = the fact, so this might be a good chance to learn why good entries are so important. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 3:25 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hello,, I'm a newbie to CANSLIM. I bought CLZR (Candela Inc.) shares a few days = ago after studying WON book a while but they have dropped about 20% between today and yesterday. I tried to find some "bad news" around the company = but couldn't find any. Do you think it's just institutional investors = pulling out or is there any other underlying reason for that that you can spot ? Thanks a lot for any feedack Best regards Fabio - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Aug 2003 00:35:28 -0400 From: "Pritish Shah" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR - --=_C59BC489.94F5BEF0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline Fabio, Also, look at the CLZR chart that is attached. If you notice: 1) The stock moved out of the trend -- a sell signal according to WON. 2) Somewhat of a upward wedging triangle -- I believe it is a bearish signal. I will give you more info once I study it further (I am trying to learn too ;) ) Regards, Pritish >>> kmalm@earthlink.net 08/07/03 8:44 PM >>> Hi Fabio, Here are a couple of charts so that you can see the technical action. First, a weekly chart that shows how CLZR rose from it's double bottom late last year: http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/CLZR080103Wkly.JPG Notice where the latest valid base formed and where CLZR made a definite move above it at about $10: http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/CLZR080703.JPG As you can see, your entry on 7/22 was at a price that was significantly extended from the prior base, meaning that the risk that the stock could easily fall back was extremely high. In other words, you had no wiggle room. Notice also, that when you entered on 7/22 that the stock's 50 and 200 day moving averages had diverged significantly. That's another visual clue to let you know that the stock is extended. I call it the "rubberband effect." In other words, you don't really know how long these kinds of moves can go on, but once the stock is extended too far to the upside, the rubberband snaps and the price returns to a more normal pattern of ascent. That pullback in this case could easily take the stock as low as $10 (back to the top of the previous valid base), or could snap it back to an intermediate term area of support (the 50 day moving average). There's really no way to know how far it will snap, but the psychology of the market (profit taking) will most certainly see the stock fall before rising further. Given that the market as a whole has had more than it's share of distribution days, the liklihood that it would happen was even higher. I'd say the very best lesson learned on this one is to be more diligent about reading the chart and finding an optimal entry point. For example, if you'd entered this stock on 4/30 when it broke out at about $10, worse case, you'd have been able to exit the stock with a modest gain. Next lesson is to be sure to look at the chart and be sure you understand where your exit point will be if the price action moves against you. Whether you use a 7-8% stop loss or something more technically driven, you'll know when to pull the plug next time before it gets away from you. As a side note, the 7-8% stop loss is optimized for entries *at the breakout* not at extended prices, so beware! One can still lose their shirt 8% at a time, it just takes longer. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 6:49 PM To: kmalm@earthlink.net Cc: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hi Katherine and Hi all,, Thanks a lot for the constructive feedback. To answer Katherine's question I had bought CLZR shares on the 22 of july. I will be more careful next time and cut the loss at 7-8%. Simply I didn't expect CLZR to fall so sharply in such a short time. Thanks again and best regards Fabio - -----Original Message----- From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net] Sent: 07 August 2003 23:52 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hi Fabio, You mentioned that you bought CLZR a couple of days ago. If you don't mind, would you tell us exactly what date? I think the easiest way to "explain" CLZR is for us to show your entry vs. an "optimal" entry and then show why an "optimal" entry would have provided some "wiggle room" for your position. That should also help explain why it is far less important to know the "reason" for the drop than the explanation as to what can happen technically to a stock. For the most part, nobody ever knows the reason until after the fact, so this might be a good chance to learn why good entries are so important. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Callegher, Fabio Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 3:25 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CLZR Hello,, I'm a newbie to CANSLIM. I bought CLZR (Candela Inc.) shares a few days ago after studying WON book a while but they have dropped about 20% between today and yesterday. I tried to find some "bad news" around the company but couldn't find any. Do you think it's just institutional investors pulling out or is there any other underlying reason for that that you can spot ? Thanks a lot for any feedack Best regards Fabio - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Aug 2003 01:00:18 -0400 From: "Pritish Shah" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] stock software Jeff, I have started reading couple books on "Chart patterns". They are called Trading Classic Chart patterns and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (both by the same writer (Thomas Bulkowski). One thing that I do not see in any WON books is detailed statistics with numbers. The above books have it. It also covers what should be the price target and how to calculate an actual number. I have now been able to buy good stocks -- I just haven't been able to sell it at the right price (except ofcourse for the 7% to 8% loss rule). These books put it in clear english what should be the profit point and what is the failure rate etc. Eg. CwH statistics between 1991 and 1996 Failure Rate: 26% Average Rise: 38% with most likely rise between 10% and 20%. Throwbacks: 74% (this is retesting the pivot) % meeting predicted price: 49% using full formation height, 73% using half formation height Surprising find: Cups with higher right lip perform better (40% avg vs 35% for the lower right lip) So, the question is how do you find the target price. Well after reading the book, take the depth of the cup and add it to the pivot (WOW -- this is what I was looking for for such a long time. I now have to go back and examine my failures). But full depth is successful only 49% of the time AND (and this is a big AND) using half the depth of the cup as the profit motive made the trade successful 73% of the time. More later. This book will be like finding Nirvana if what it says turns out to be on the mark. Pritish >>> JHend746@cox.net 08/07/03 8:24 PM >>> Hey thanks everybody! What a great community! One day I will hopefully be able to give something back instead of just asking questions. Jeff Henderson - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of DMC197807 Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:42 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stock software Jeff, Those are 3 good books. Only about 50 more to go! I actually think that Van Tharp's book and Stan Weinstein's book are the first pillars of wisdom here, both well-written and logical. Van & Stan, sounds like a car dealership. Here is a basic list I made up for a young man (college boy) who wanted to learn about TA and trading. It's about 1/3 the books I have (I find Farley, Pring and Dorsey to be harder slogging in the initial rounds, so put them off to later--by that time you'll be able to choose your own books) and I'm sure that others may vote for different books in the intial cut, but that's what makes a market, even in books: E= Elder, Trading for a Living IBD= Investors Business Daily M= Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets Ma= Moving Averages Simplified (Drokes) Mc=McMillan, Options as a Strategic Investment Mo= Morris, Candlestick Charting Explained Ni= Nison, Beyond Candlesticks Vt= Van Tharp, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom Ta= Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (magazine) W= Weinstein, Secrets of Profiting in Bull & Bear Markets Things I don't find helpful in the early stages of learning are: Gann, Fibonacci and Bulkowski's chart analysis. DMC - ----- Original Message ----- From: Jeff Henderson To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 1:02 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] stock software I read How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad by William O'Neill and Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by K. Tharp and Nicholas Darvas's book How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of DMC197807 Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 2:56 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stock software Jeff, If you are a college student then I suggest you spend zero dollars for software. You no doubt have access to high speed internet access (aka the Big Pipe). You should be able to utilize a lot of free sites (including this one) to get some education. I'd suggest using the MSN site for scanning, the free section of stockcharts.com for charting (and education) and the library for borrowing books. You can lurk at a number of for-pay investment sites (SI comes to mind) and learn from a number of very wise people. Most investment sites have an extensive education spot (check out stockcharts, Bernie Schaefer). If you're going to college in or near a big city, I'd suggest signing up for free presentations/seminars offered by TC2K, Metastock, 21st Century Investor Educ. Center (options), etc. If your college has a business school you might look for a finance course, if it's Univ of Penna, you might hang out at the Wharton School, etc. Also, check to see if your school has an investment club/group/etc. These can be very sophisticated, although they almost always are enamored of an FA approach. Btw, "I just got finished reading 3 stock books and I'm getting anxious about trading" is a dangerous sentence to read. The market stands ready, willing and able to separate you from your brokerage account. I'm not saying "don't tread," but rather, "tread very carefully." Which 3 stock books did you read? DMC - ----- Original Message ----- From: Jeff Henderson To: Canslim Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2003 11:57 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] stock software Does anybody have any recommendations for stock software? I'm looking for getting the most for my $ plus I'm a college student so, I really don't have to much money to spend (<$100). Sorry if I'm asking too many questions but it's my first day and I just got finished reading 3 stock books and I'm getting anxious about trading. Thanks, Jeff H. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Aug 2003 08:06:59 +0100 From: "Mark Crisp" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CLZR I find most people are beyond help. Those who want to learn will learn... the rest simply carry on making the same mistakes. I am off this list. Good luck.. many of you should not be trading. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pritish Shah" To: ; Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 9:43 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CLZR > Mark, > > Since you have gained experience, you should be helping people > positively rather than with sarcasm/cynicism. > > This list is about **learning** CANSLIM. If people are experts, why > would they need help from others and why would they join a canslim > list. > > Since you are already an expert, are you going to learn, teach, watch > and/or promote your business? > > Learn from Katherine Malm. She is an expert and has a really good > website but does not pull punches like you do and neither does she try > to promote her business. > > Pritish > > >>> stressfreetrader@btopenworld.com 8/7/2003 4:30:19 PM >>> > Before you buy a stock you have a get out point.. right? It's called a > trading plan. > > "Plan a trade and trade a plan" > > Why are you still holding a stock that has fallen 20%? did you plan > this? > > Mark Crisp > http://www.stressfreetrading.com > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Callegher, Fabio" > To: > Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 9:24 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] CLZR > > > Hello,, > > I'm a newbie to CANSLIM. I bought CLZR (Candela Inc.) shares a few days > ago > after studying WON book a while but they have dropped about 20% > between > today and yesterday. I tried to find some "bad news" around the company > but > couldn't find any. Do you think it's just institutional investors > pulling > out or is there any > other underlying reason for that that you can spot ? > > Thanks a lot for any feedack > Best regards > Fabio > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3489 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.