From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #349 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, August 5 1998 Volume 02 : Number 349 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim -research question -Db? [CANSLIM] How does the world treat Traders? Connie Re: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim -research question -Db? [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested [CANSLIM] Circuit Breakers, FYI [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Re: [CANSLIM] TLs and MAs--Non-CS: Tannis Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 [CANSLIM] CANSLIM revisions RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Re: [CANSLIM] How does the world treat Traders? Connie ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 08:02:58 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim -research question -Db? There was discussion on this board about surrogates, probably in June, and I'm having trouble getting into the archives lately. I'd appreciate help. Are there indices for (what I'll call uncommon) groups like advertising, auto parts, and furniture? If so, where would I find them? I recall, Db, that you make your own. Right now, I don't have that capability so I'd settle for preformed indices. Also, I've been noticing that ^SOXX finishes in the black on these otherwise red days. How do I find out the components of ^SOXX? It seems like there was a site where one could put in a keyword and get lists of indices beyond the most common 20-30. I thought it was bigcharts or yahoo, but can't find them. Thanks, _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 08:20:48 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] How does the world treat Traders? Connie Connie Mack I feel as though I am imposing on your privacy since you have not posted for awhile. If I am breaching a code by this posting, please accept my appologies. I read somewhere recently that daytraders and long term investors can make money in this market, but generally not intermediate traders. The way I see it, a daytrader would have immediate feedback, while it may take awhile for the long termer to see results. If you don't mind sharing your experience, what are you finding now? Do you use the same OBV/MF price divergence indicators in all markets? Elder mentions the parabolic trading system. Is the parabolic SAR good to use in this type of market for daytraders? I'm not planning on daytrading anytime soon, but reading your postings about trading add depth and understanding. Tannis _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 09:12:42 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim -research question -Db? <> As far as I know, there aren't, though AUX does include but is not limited to auto parts. As far as making your own, you can do that with a little extra work at Yahoo. Set up a Yahoo portfolio with the components of your index (you can use the stocks which Joe provided) and "buy" whatever you're going to buy (probably equal dollar amounts unless you want to get into weighting) so that you have a portfolio value as of that date, then track the portfolio value from day to day on a spreadsheet. I know this is a pain, but without a program that allows you to create composite securities, I don't know of any other way. You can do without Yahoo entirely and do it all on a spreadsheet, but I'm not a spreadsheet wizard so I can't help you there. <> This is what I have, though it's a year old and I can't remember where I got it. I believe it was phlx.com, but they're not answering right now. Perhaps you'll have better luck later or someone else has a more up-to-date list. INTC 21.169 % TXN 10.359 % MOT 9.784 % NVLS 8.615 % LSCC 7.261 % AMAT 5.705 % ADI 5.456 % MU 4.82 % LSI 4.267 % AMD 4.102 % TER 3.897 % NSM 3.877 % VLSI 3.733 % IRF 2.461 % CY 2.256 % IDTI 2.174 % Obviously, since the top five account for nearly 60% of the index, those five are the stocks to watch (same for the Nasdaq: the top few stocks account for a huge percentage of the Nasdaq itself, which is why so many consider it to be a large-cap tech-stock index today rather than a small cap index). The CBOE site also has a lot of indices and their components if you're interested in indices other than SOX. <> It's bigcharts and the tab is at the top under "quick chart" (Indexes). Click that and you'll get your keyword page. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 10:23:13 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested We may be nearing the end, or the beginning of the end depending on your personal scenario. Dow Transports are sitting on a long-term trendline going back two years. The industrials are nearing their 200d and a long-term trendline also dating back two years (the beginning of this entire move). Ditto with the NYSE. The Nasdaq is a different story, so heavily weighted as it is with MSFT, INTC, DELL and so forth. I'd like to hear the thoughts of others who are interested in this sort of thing regarding their analysis of the Nasdaq pattern. Perhaps the Naz will simply fall in line with the other indices in terms of percentage loss and stop short of its 200d, though reaching it would require only another 50 pt drop beyond 10%. Thoughts? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 04 Aug 1998 20:30:13 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Just a quick note: Yep we SHOULD be nearning the end. After all, we have had a "bear market now for almost a full TWO weeks! That is 10 trading days. If I had my calculator handy, I'd tell you how many hours that would be, but you are better of not knowing anyway, I guess. And what a bear market it has been! They hardly put in any of those nifty counter trend rallies like we used to have. I mean, look at it, what did we get... a counter-trend ralley of 2 days tops is nothing to write home about, is it?? I hear a lot of buy-the-dippers are hurting bad, real bad. I ask you: I there no decency anymore? Seems like some people are forgetting that this is the USA. We do not have bear markets here anymore. So I'm calling the end right now. From here it will be straight up again. After all, if we can get this low in 10 trading days, we should be able to be a new highs in approximately what, 3 to 4 weeks, no? Make that 1 or 2 weeks, no time to waste. - --- Seriously though: I think we might be due for a technical bounce somewhere between now and a couple of days. Or a complete breakdown. (Just had to put that in.) But who cares? If adv/decl doesn't start to improve (drastically) a bounced would be a shorting opportunity IMO. IF we are close to the bottom now, it will take quite a while to repair all the damage that has been done. Maybe not THAT much in the bigger caps, but certainly a lot in the small caps. Just came home, going to have a closer look now, seems bears were having a parade today... Sorry for my silly attempt at humour in the first 3 paragraphs. Had a stressful day (not market related). >We may be nearing the end, or the beginning of the end depending on >your personal scenario. Dow Transports are sitting on a long-term >trendline going back two years. The industrials are nearing their >200d and a long-term trendline also dating back two years (the >beginning of this entire move). Ditto with the NYSE. > >The Nasdaq is a different story, so heavily weighted as it is with >MSFT, INTC, DELL and so forth. I'd like to hear the thoughts of >others who are interested in this sort of thing regarding their >analysis of the Nasdaq pattern. Perhaps the Naz will simply fall in >line with the other indices in terms of percentage loss and stop short >of its 200d, though reaching it would require only another 50 pt drop >beyond 10%. Thoughts? > >--Db > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 11:47:37 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Speaking of percentage losses: These are some random IBD groups that I track. These probably overlap with Joe's groups. I use the closing price on the day before the group is featured in IBD on the companies in the news page. There are more, just take forever to check. group, date, % off, Medical Software, 6/5/, 18%, but TPRS up 303% Com Optical Recog, 6/18, 7.5% Generic Drgs, 5/13, 4.58%, but PRX up 38% Construction Equip/ 6/29, 5.30% Foods, 6/17, 18.45% but several up BTW, thanks for the indices, Db. - ---dbphoenix wrote: > > > > We may be nearing the end, or the beginning of the end depending on > your personal scenario. Dow Transports are sitting on a long-term > trendline going back two years. The industrials are nearing their > 200d and a long-term trendline also dating back two years (the > beginning of this entire move). Ditto with the NYSE. > > The Nasdaq is a different story, so heavily weighted as it is with > MSFT, INTC, DELL and so forth. I'd like to hear the thoughts of > others who are interested in this sort of thing regarding their > analysis of the Nasdaq pattern. Perhaps the Naz will simply fall in > line with the other indices in terms of percentage loss and stop short > of its 200d, though reaching it would require only another 50 pt drop > beyond 10%. Thoughts? > > --Db > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 12:16:22 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Circuit Breakers, FYI From Briefing.com With the Dow having dropped 226 points earlier in the day, it prompted some of our readers to incquire about circuit breakers, so here is a reminder... Note that the old 350 and 550 points circuit-breakers no longer apply -- the new circuit breakers are set quarterly and are based on percentage declines of 10, 20, and 30 percent. The Q3 circuit breakers have been set at 900, 1750, and 2650 points. The first circuit-breaker at -900 would halt trading for an hour if it occurred before 2:00 ET, for a half hour if before 2:30 ET, and have no impact if it was hit after 2:30 ET... In short, the circuit-breakers are not a factor today. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 15:27:06 -0400 From: Kim Hinshaw <70264.1444@compuserve.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan - -------------Forwarded Message----------------- From: Kim Hinshaw, To: Canslim Digest, INTERNET:majordomo@xmission.com Date: 8/4/98 11:27 RE: Not directly CS- Having a plan In the hope that I am not digressing too far from direct canslim materials, I though I would share what having a written market plan for the various market contingencies has meant and done for me. It has made my investing life much more simple. Every day before the market closes if possible, or for sure that night I just have to ask myself if what I planned to change my mind to intermediate term bullish has happened. So far the answer has been no, thus no new positions are considered. I have made a decision for now based on warnings from people I respect greatly to not short so that is not a consideration for me at this point. It has help me with a time management problem I was having. I wasted time that could of been used more productively, just looking at quotes go by on the internet page. Now by having also made the decision that I am not a short term trader, and having a stop in place on my one open position, I realize that watching quotes is at times fun and engulfing but not the best use of my time. I would rather have my groups put together for the next time I get a preplanned bullish signal. Having a plan has helped me control my emotions and made me more disciplined. It someone would of forced me to place a bet on the market a week ago I would of bet on a stronger rally attempt. However I lived by the plan. It did seem the market was more volatile and disconcerting then usual, but my plan kept me from having any knee jerk reactions to any of this. Having a written versus not written plan has prevented the temptation of selective cheating. I had decided in advance where the trend line or whatever indicator I had used in planning fell and have written numbers to refer to. I feel that this has helped me to not be tempted to redraw the line a little differently because of personal bias of wanting to do or see something that is not the reality. I had made up a worksheet for stock purchases but until now had not had a though out plan for the general market. I have now made it a goal to do so on a weekly basis. Every airline departure by regulation has to file a flight plan with all foreseeable contingencies planned for. I though about how nerve wracking it would be to find out the weather was below landing minimums, and not have a plan of what alternate airport you were going to use, or if you still had enough fuel to get there. Not the kind of spot decisions you want to make under pressure with no previous planning. Yet I was making some market decisions without previous planning while thinking I am approaching investing as professionally as I can with my experience. As others are found of saying, your milage may vary. Thanks to all of you that took the time to comment on my previous market analysis. I studied all comments very carefully and all were appreciated. If other new canslimers and those with more experience would being willing to post the things they did that had the biggest impact on making them better investors I would be most interested. Regards, Kim Hinshaw - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 12:24:19 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLs and MAs--Non-CS: Tannis <> If you have time on your hands, it would be interesting to determine what had been the leaders in each group and calculate their declines from their peaks. This might give you a better idea of the true strength or weakness of the "group". With the advance-decline in such bad shape, it's going to take some nimbleness and creativity to spot the leaders coming out of this correction (I don't think it's a pullback anymore :) ). - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 15:39:44 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan I have noticed alot of philosophical interest. I would like to see more actual trades. Perhaps this network is geared more to the new investor since the info seems pretty shallow. Feedback? Dave - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 04 Aug 1998 22:04:16 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Dave, Why don't you set an example and start a more advanced, practical thread as you would like to see? On the other hand have some patience with the group, WON hardly encourages shorting. Wait until we see bases all over the place and stocks start breaking out one by one. You'll get your stock picks. But in the meanwhile I'd like to see you post your trades as they happen. Dave wrote: >I have noticed alot of philosophical interest. I would like to see more actual >trades. Perhaps this network is geared more to the new investor since the info >seems pretty shallow. Feedback? > >Dave Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 13:04:57 -0700 From: Mike Lucero Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. Mike - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 12:57:20 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan <> >From a CS standpoint, there's not a whole lot to do until we hit bottom and reach a follow-through day. There's always shorting to discuss and consider, but there hasn't been much interest in the topic. Do you have any thoughts on the subject? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 How much rougher than this can it get? Nelson - ---------- > From: Mike Lucero > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 > Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM > > A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. > > Mike > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 04 Aug 1998 21:15:25 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: :How much rougher than this can it get? : :Nelson Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within *reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if conditions get worse. Dan : :---------- :> From: Mike Lucero :> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' :> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 :> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM :>=20 :> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. :>=20 :> Mike :>=20 :>=20 :>=20 :> - : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 17:53:59 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more would be a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater correction is certainly possible. How do you suggest we "try to be ready"? Nelson - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 5:15 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: :How much rougher than this can it get? : :Nelson Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within *reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if conditions get worse. Dan : :---------- :> From: Mike Lucero :> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' :> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 :> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM :> :> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. :> :> Mike :> :> :> :> - : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 04 Aug 1998 22:58:49 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Nelson - Read my statement carefully...I assure you I wrote it very carefully. I did not say "likely" or anything like that. I said it was not an unreasonable possibility. How can you get ready? Well, don't be blindsided by the things that happen in life if you can help it. My statement was broad. Now I was evidently a lot less ready last year than this year (knock on wood). For one thing, I'm prepared to short this time around. Good luck one and all. Dan On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 17:53:59 -0400, you wrote: :Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more = would be :a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater :correction is certainly possible. : :How do you suggest we "try to be ready"? : :Nelson : :-----Original Message----- :From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com :[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant :Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 5:15 PM :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 : : :On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: : ::How much rougher than this can it get? :: ::Nelson : :Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within :*reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop :in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if :conditions get worse. : :Dan :: ::---------- ::> From: Mike Lucero ::> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' ::> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 ::> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM ::> ::> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. ::> ::> Mike ::> ::> ::> ::> - :: :: :: ::- : :musicant@autobahn.org : :- : : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 19:42:13 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Dan: I assure you I read your post. And re-read it. It really says very little. I acknowledge that you were careful in saying very little. Saying that 25% is not an "unreasonable possibility" really isn't a statement that can be disputed, since "anything is possible". However, in my opinion, 25% is unlikely, given the 8% discount we have just had. Another 25% would put us around 6000. Is that likely? I doubt it. Is it possible? Sure, "anything is possible". On a serious note, how did you prepare for shorting, and/or what did you do to prepare that you didn't do the last time around. I want to learn. Also, wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a down market than to short? Nelson Nelson - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 6:59 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Nelson - Read my statement carefully...I assure you I wrote it very carefully. I did not say "likely" or anything like that. I said it was not an unreasonable possibility. How can you get ready? Well, don't be blindsided by the things that happen in life if you can help it. My statement was broad. Now I was evidently a lot less ready last year than this year (knock on wood). For one thing, I'm prepared to short this time around. Good luck one and all. Dan On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 17:53:59 -0400, you wrote: :Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more would be :a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater :correction is certainly possible. : :How do you suggest we "try to be ready"? : :Nelson : :-----Original Message----- :From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com :[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant :Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 5:15 PM :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 : : :On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: : ::How much rougher than this can it get? :: ::Nelson : :Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within :*reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop :in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if :conditions get worse. : :Dan :: ::---------- ::> From: Mike Lucero ::> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' ::> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 ::> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM ::> ::> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. ::> ::> Mike ::> ::> ::> ::> - :: :: :: ::- : :musicant@autobahn.org : :- : : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 19:25:08 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM revisions Some time ago, I offered changes and additions to the CS criteria that I had read, heard, or been told of. Some of these were offered in this week's installment of the CS series in IBD and are quoted below. Note the comments on sales (as well as earnings), annual growth rate, return on equity, and "N". - --Db We've found that a company's profitability is one of the most important factors that affect the stock price. This means buying only stocks that show consistent earnings improvement, have improving sales and have either strong profit margins or a high return on equity. From our study of the most successful stocks in the past, coupled with years of experience, we've found that three out of four of the biggest winners were growth stocks with earnings per share in each year of the prior three years up an average of 30% or more before they made their biggest gains. Some initial public offerings, or companies that went public in the last eight or 10 years, may not have three years of earnings growth. In these special cases, I want to see earnings in each of the last six quarters up a material amount (50% to 100% or more) compared to the same quarter the year before. I'm not interested in promises that mediocre earnings will be better in the future. The vast majority of our historical models all had strong, accelerating earnings before their huge price increases occurred. In addition, sales should either be accelerating in the last few quarters or be up 25% or more. I prefer to select companies that are No. 1 in their particular field in terms of sales and earnings growth, profit margins and return on equity. Most of the winners in our study had ROEs of 20% or more. Many were new issues (IPOs). Most also had management ownership. That is, managers owned a certain percent of the stock, giving them a higher stake in the company's performance. The company should have new products or services that are perceived to be superior. You should understand what your company makes or does. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 21:57:16 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." To: > Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more would be > a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater > correction is certainly possible. Actually, not to be a nitpicker, but it would be 31% according to my quick estimate. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 05 Aug 1998 06:12:11 -0700 From: Robert J Knott Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 For what it,s worth I was watching a time and sales of DIA (the diamond) alot of 100,s a few 1000,s sells; But some big boys buying 5000 - 100,000. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 05 Aug 1998 14:19:02 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 19:42:13 -0400, you wrote: :Dan: : :I assure you I read your post. And re-read it. It really says very = little. I :acknowledge that you were careful in saying very little. : :Saying that 25% is not an "unreasonable possibility" really isn't a :statement that can be disputed, since "anything is possible". However, = in my :opinion, 25% is unlikely, given the 8% discount we have just had. = Another :25% would put us around 6000. Is that likely? I doubt it. Is it = possible? :Sure, "anything is possible". : :On a serious note, how did you prepare for shorting, and/or what did you= do :to prepare that you didn't do the last time around. I want to learn. = Also, :wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a = down :market than to short? : :Nelson : Hi Nelson, Yes, I did hedge me bets, and that's a consciously acquired skill! If I phrase my statements carefully, I won't be wrong (but I may not be saying much, as you observe!). You finally acknowledge the scope of my statement to include the *anything is possible* type of concept, and that's what my intention was as a retort to your question, little more. I certainly didn't want to put on the cloak of the prognosticator. That's virtually impossible, I think in this situation. Agreed, -25% from here IS unlikely, highly unlikely. Virtually impossible? Well no. I prepared for shorting be doing it a couple of times. I think that's the way to prepare for shorting, pure and simple (if not simplistic...).=20 Preparing *this time around*? Well, I've been paying closer attention to what's going on. For me, it has helped (I think) to watch a 1/2 hour PBS broadcast M-F evenings, Nightly Business Report. It's grating, but I tape it, FF through the ghastly parts. I especially like the spot checks on the major stocks and indexes, economic indicators, breezy and quick analysis. Paul Kangas used to be a broker and has a sense of humour and I've gotten a gestalt from it all. Not for everyone, and I don't like it sometimes, but it's helped me. I've been more select in my stock picking. A lot of issues that I might have bought before I'm not buying now because I've found other stocks that are more apt to perform for me. Stuff like top performing groups, high RS, and maybe a healthy dose of luck. :Also, wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts = in a down :market than to short? Well, Nelson, I consider myself pretty much a novice too. Not a complete novice of course, but my knowledge is pretty spotty. For example, I know practically nothing about puts and options. Can you describe what a "naked put" is?? Thanks. Good luck to all. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 05 Aug 1998 09:30:04 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How does the world treat Traders? Connie - --------------4E3F3DCFCDA0B4824ED66771 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit TM wrote: > Connie Mack > > I feel as though I am imposing on your privacy since you have not > posted for awhile. If I am breaching a code by this posting, please > accept my appologies. > Morning Tannis-- Please don't think you are imposing. And you need not apologize. > I read somewhere recently that daytraders and long term investors can > make money in this market, but generally not intermediate traders. > > The way I see it, a daytrader would have immediate feedback, while it > may take awhile for the long termer to see results. > Am not sure that I see why a long term investor might make money in this sort of market and that an intermediate trader might not. That a trader can make money in this market, or theoretically in any market, is probably true--especially so if he is a shorter. > If you don't mind sharing your experience, what are you finding now? > Do you use the same OBV/MF price divergence indicators in all markets? > I have only two shorts out and both are quite small positions. Though my 3/7/10EMA and SloSto took me out last week, I did not anticipate the extent of the fall. One of the good things about the EMA is that it takes you out without and need not, and cannot, forecast the extent of the fall. When my EMA gives a buy, I'll return. A trader can make money in this market irrespective that he may not short. In fact, because the EMA does not forecast the degree of the correction, you can err by shorting on every sell. The SAR, which is a fairly complicated indicator is, as far as I know, not explained on any of the sites. It is a short term strategy that always keeps you in the market, either on the short or long side. And I do still rely on OBV/MF as my initial scan criteria. Remember that both are only rough indicators not to be used for getting in and out. > Elder mentions the parabolic trading system. Is the parabolic SAR good > to use in this type of market for daytraders? > > I'm not planning on daytrading anytime soon, but reading your postings > about trading add depth and understanding. > > Tannis > Thank you for the mail. Write anytime. Connie > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #349 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.