From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3526 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, August 14 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3526 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling RE: [CANSLIM] KKD Breakout Re: [CANSLIM] NTST [CANSLIM] What is your profession? Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 09:42:14 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0107_01C36248.58055E20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ian, What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) is a = market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone nowhere but = sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily on the SPX = you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX chart is = extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market that has = been drugged. Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more = dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the = little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's = business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems = to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen. One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears have = been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as it's = almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit one = more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in droves. = July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the towel and we = had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or just plain = logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about Warren = Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund. Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls = complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming = our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure. DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Hi DMC: One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the pundits (the = ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific sample size) = appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't that make = everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the wall of = worry? Cheers, Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0107_01C36248.58055E20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Ian,
 
What I see here (putting aside the = letter writers,=20 pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low volatility and which = has gone=20 nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks.  If you pull up a = daily on=20 the SPX you can see a double top and then a trailing off.  The VIX = chart is=20 extremely unusual in its low leveling off.  It's like a market that = has=20 been drugged.
 
Will it break out to the topside or the = bottomside?  Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply to the = topside=20 to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then break down = like=20 nobody's business?  I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, = but it=20 seems to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to=20 happen.
 
One thing I've learned is that it won't = be a top=20 until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, = imho),=20 just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to = commit=20 one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in=20 droves.  July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the = towel=20 and we had a bottom.  March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or = just plain=20 logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about Warren = Buffet being=20 washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund.
 
Since I don't see the bears giving up = quite yet,=20 and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious = spikes=20 coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not=20 sure.
 
DMC
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 = 9:45=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Hi DMC:
 
One thing I find a little ironic here is that most = of=20 the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a = non-scientific=20 sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. = Doesn't that=20 make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the = wall of=20 worry?
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0107_01C36248.58055E20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 12:56:35 -0400 (EDT) From: Yien T Lung Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] KKD Breakout hmm, thanks Katherine. Great insight. The first time I looked at the daily chart, I thought the handle was actually a flat base. It looks that I need to use the weekly charts more. Thanks Yien On Thu, 14 Aug 2003, Katherine Malm wrote: > Hi Yien, > > Here are some quick notations and thoughts on the KKD chart: > > http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/KKD081403.JPG > > Katherine > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Pete > Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 11:12 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KKD Breakout > > > Yien, great questions if you look at the weekly chart you'll see the handle > is 5 wks long > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Yien T Lung" > To: > Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 12:02 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] KKD Breakout > > > > Hmm, > > > > Please correct me if I am wrong (I am also newbie in this game), but is a > > cup and handle supposed to take > > that long to form? And besides, even if it was a cup and handle, shouldnt > > the handle portion of be slightly longer since the cup formation lasted > > for over a year and half. > > > > Yien > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thu, 14 Aug 2003, Margate, Allan wrote: > > > > > It seems that KKD is breaking out from a long cup and handle that > started in > > > 1/02. Being fairly new to CANSLIM I would like to know other peoples > opinion > > > on the chart. Does this look like a proper cup and handle? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: Pete [mailto:peten123@nc.rr.com] > > > Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 8:30 AM > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] KKD Breakout > > > > > > > > > FYI > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 13:05:26 -0400 From: "Steve Goodwin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NTST Mike, I don't usually get into a stock with such a limited liquidity history. That said, NTST seems to be having a very good time LONG today. As far as volume drying up goes, I've followed the CANSLIM approach for awhile now, yes you would like to see it dry up, but in this market, having this happen in a such a quality manner is difficult. - - Steve - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 12:26 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] NTST > It appears that NTST is breaking out from a pivot of $7.28 on huge volume, > but when I look at the chart, I am concerned by the high volume that exists > in the handle area. From what I remember, you would like to see volume dry > up, preferable below the 50dMA. I see this as a danger sign to the > success, but as of this writing, it is up to $7.54. > > Any thoughts? > > Mike > > Mike Niemotka , PE > Sr. Principal Engineer > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > Route 120 & Wilson Road > Round Lake, IL 60073 > Tel (847) 270-4075 > Fax (847) 270-4525 > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 14:13:14 -0400 (EDT) From: Yien T Lung Subject: [CANSLIM] What is your profession? Hi guys, I have this nagging question on my throat..although it is not really a CANSLIM related question...but here it goes. For the frequent members of this forum, what is your day to day profession? Any of you guys retired and actively managing your hard earned cash using CANSLIM? Thanks Yien - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 12:18:26 -0600 From: "Rolf Hertenstein" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_045C_01C3625E.29A171C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hey DMC - What are the dates of your double-bottom bottoms? My guess is you're = looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 weeks you mention?) than I am. I was looking at a daily SP-500 chart over 2 years and can imagine an = 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March 2002, handle last 8 weeks. = DOW and NASD look similar. Problems with this picture: 1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or so) has the left side cup as a blip = on a longer downtrend. 2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean it'll resolve to the upside. Rolf ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 10:42 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Ian, What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) is a = market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone nowhere but = sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily on the SPX = you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX chart is = extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market that has = been drugged. Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more = dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the = little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's = business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems = to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen. One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears have = been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as it's = almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit one = more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in droves. = July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the towel and we = had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or just plain = logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about Warren = Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund. Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls = complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming = our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure. DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Hi DMC: One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the pundits = (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific sample = size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't that = make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the wall = of worry? Cheers, Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_045C_01C3625E.29A171C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hey DMC -
 
What are the dates of your = double-bottom=20 bottoms?  My guess is you're looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 = weeks=20 you mention?) than I am.
 
I was looking at a daily SP-500 = chart over 2=20 years and can imagine an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March = 2002, handle=20 last 8 weeks.  DOW and NASD look similar.
 
Problems with this = picture:
1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or = so) has the=20 left side cup as a blip on a longer downtrend.
2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean = it'll resolve=20 to the upside.
 
 Rolf
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DMC197807
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 = 10:42=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Ian,
 
What I see here (putting aside the = letter=20 writers, pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low volatility = and=20 which has gone nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks.  = If you=20 pull up a daily on the SPX you can see a double top and then a = trailing=20 off.  The VIX chart is extremely unusual in its low leveling = off. =20 It's like a market that has been drugged.
 
Will it break out to the topside or = the=20 bottomside?  Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply to = the=20 topside to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then = break down=20 like nobody's business?  I don't know, obviously, or I'd be = filthy rich,=20 but it seems to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to = happen.
 
One thing I've learned is that it = won't be a top=20 until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, = imho),=20 just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to = commit=20 one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in=20 droves.  July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in = the towel=20 and we had a bottom.  March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or = just=20 plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about = Warren=20 Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund.
 
Since I don't see the bears giving up = quite yet,=20 and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious = spikes=20 coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not=20 sure.
 
DMC
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
Sent: Thursday, August 14, = 2003 9:45=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Hi DMC:
 
One thing I find a little ironic here is that = most of=20 the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a=20 non-scientific sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone = is=20 bullish. Doesn't that make everyone really bearish, allowing us to = continue=20 to climb the wall of worry?
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_045C_01C3625E.29A171C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 12:29:31 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C3625F.B612DAD0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Rolf: Double bottom bottoms? I'm confused, since I was talking about a single = double top in this sideways market. The double top in the SPX is = definitely on a shorter time frame: I have a top at 1015.3 around June = 10 and 1015.4 around July 14. The last double bottoms in SPX were July and September last year. I = don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously unimaginative. Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I like to say) is the potential for = this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW down with 1015 as the = new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or 600s. In other = words, instead of us registering The Bottom in 2002, we would simply = have registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The Bottom = (September? November? of 2003)??? The EW folk would see (I think) a top at 1315, a leg down to 944 (1), a = leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a leg up to 965 (4) and the = last leg down to 768 (5). Now, the countertrend might be a leg up to 960 (1), down to 800 (2) and = up to 1015 (3). And now for the next leg. If the Ewavers are right, time for a big down = leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 pts?) and then the crusher down = 350-400 pts or so?? I don't necessarily believe in this stuff, but if you plot a zigzag on = the big markets you can certainly see some patterns of waves in some = time frames. I don't want to be like the Psychic Networks owner who appeared in = Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the question, "Well, why didn't = you see this coming?" DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Rolf Hertenstein=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 11:18 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Hey DMC - What are the dates of your double-bottom bottoms? My guess is you're = looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 weeks you mention?) than I am. I was looking at a daily SP-500 chart over 2 years and can imagine an = 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March 2002, handle last 8 weeks. = DOW and NASD look similar. Problems with this picture: 1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or so) has the left side cup as a = blip on a longer downtrend. 2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean it'll resolve to the upside. Rolf ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 10:42 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Ian, What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) is = a market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone nowhere = but sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily on the = SPX you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX chart is = extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market that has = been drugged. Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more = dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the = little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's = business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems = to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen. One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears = have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as = it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit = one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in = droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the = towel and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or = just plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about = Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund. Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls = complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming = our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure. DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Hi DMC: One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the pundits = (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific sample = size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't that = make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the wall = of worry? Cheers, Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C3625F.B612DAD0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Rolf:
 
Double bottom bottoms?  I'm = confused, since I=20 was talking about a single double top in this sideways market.  The = double=20 top in the SPX is definitely on a shorter time frame:  I have a top = at=20 1015.3 around June 10 and 1015.4 around July 14.
 
The last double bottoms in SPX were = July and=20 September last year.  I don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously=20 unimaginative.
 
Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I = like to say) is=20 the potential for this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW down = with=20 1015 as the new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or = 600s.  In=20 other words, instead of us registering The Bottom in 2002, we would = simply have=20 registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The Bottom = (September? =20 November? of 2003)???
 
The EW folk would see (I think) a top = at 1315, a=20 leg down to 944 (1), a leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a leg = up to=20 965 (4) and the last leg down to 768 (5).
 
Now, the countertrend might be a leg up = to 960 (1),=20 down to 800 (2) and up to 1015 (3).
 
And now for the next leg.  If the = Ewavers are=20 right, time for a big down leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 pts?) and = then the=20 crusher down 350-400 pts or so??
 
I don't necessarily believe in this = stuff, but if=20 you plot a zigzag on the big markets you can certainly see some patterns = of=20 waves in some time frames.
 
I don't want to be like the Psychic = Networks owner=20 who appeared in Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the question, = "Well, why=20 didn't you see this coming?"
 
 
 
 
DMC
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Rolf=20 Hertenstein
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 = 11:18=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Hey DMC -
 
What are the dates of your = double-bottom=20 bottoms?  My guess is you're looking at a shorter timeframe (the = 8 weeks=20 you mention?) than I am.
 
I was looking at a daily SP-500 = chart over 2=20 years and can imagine an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March = 2002,=20 handle last 8 weeks.  DOW and NASD look = similar.
 
Problems with this = picture:
1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or = so) has the=20 left side cup as a blip on a longer downtrend.
2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean = it'll=20 resolve to the upside.
 
 Rolf
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DMC197807
Sent: Thursday, August 14, = 2003 10:42=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Ian,
 
What I see here (putting aside the = letter=20 writers, pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low = volatility and=20 which has gone nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks.  = If you=20 pull up a daily on the SPX you can see a double top and then a = trailing=20 off.  The VIX chart is extremely unusual in its low leveling = off. =20 It's like a market that has been drugged.
 
Will it break out to the topside or = the=20 bottomside?  Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply to = the=20 topside to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then = break=20 down like nobody's business?  I don't know, obviously, or I'd = be filthy=20 rich, but it seems to me that we are in the inflection zone for = something to=20 happen.
 
One thing I've learned is that it = won't be a=20 top until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out (not = yet,=20 imho), just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are = terrified=20 to commit one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the = market=20 in droves.  July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing = in the=20 towel and we had a bottom.  March 2000 was a classic case of = bears (or=20 just plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles = about=20 Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his=20 fund.
 
Since I don't see the bears giving = up quite=20 yet, and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some = vicious=20 spikes coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm = not=20 sure.
 
DMC
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, = 2003 9:45=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Hi DMC:
 
One thing I find a little ironic here is that = most of=20 the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a=20 non-scientific sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone = is=20 bullish. Doesn't that make everyone really bearish, allowing us to = continue to climb the wall of worry?
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C3625F.B612DAD0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 12:33:36 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001F_01C36260.4864E4A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Rolf: Sorry, I meant to include this chart with the zigzags: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]wbclyiay[df][pc= 30!e10!f][vc60][iut!Lv25]&pref=3DG - ------=_NextPart_000_001F_01C36260.4864E4A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Rolf:
 
Sorry, I meant to include this chart = with the=20 zigzags:
 
 
http://stockcharts.com/de= f/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]wbclyiay[df][pc30!e10!f][vc60][iut!Lv25]= &pref=3DG
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_001F_01C36260.4864E4A0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2003 13:51:47 -0600 From: "Rolf Hertenstein" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0482_01C3626B.34872280 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Sorry, I was asking for the two bottoms to the double bottom. BUT, you = did say double TOP to the SP-500 in your original post. Amazing how the = mind works. I'd been reading about double bottoms earlier today in = another context, so, even though I read your original post twice, my = mind saw 'double bottom'. I should go outside for a couple of days. The 'virtual' CWH I see has a left cup March 2002, spiky bottom with = lows July 2002, October 2002, and March 2003, right-hand cup June 2003, = and handle since. But I always have had an over-active imagination - = the handle caught my eye first. The EW stuff is interesting to ponder but I do try to keep such = predictions in my (failing) mind's back burner. In the past I've acted = out of phase with the market in anticipation of forecast moves. Took me = a while to stop that, and I've done better since. Thanks for the clarification. Rolf ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 1:29 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Rolf: Double bottom bottoms? I'm confused, since I was talking about a = single double top in this sideways market. The double top in the SPX is = definitely on a shorter time frame: I have a top at 1015.3 around June = 10 and 1015.4 around July 14. The last double bottoms in SPX were July and September last year. I = don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously unimaginative. Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I like to say) is the potential for = this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW down with 1015 as the = new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or 600s. In other = words, instead of us registering The Bottom in 2002, we would simply = have registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The Bottom = (September? November? of 2003)??? The EW folk would see (I think) a top at 1315, a leg down to 944 (1), = a leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a leg up to 965 (4) and the = last leg down to 768 (5). Now, the countertrend might be a leg up to 960 (1), down to 800 (2) = and up to 1015 (3). And now for the next leg. If the Ewavers are right, time for a big = down leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 pts?) and then the crusher down = 350-400 pts or so?? I don't necessarily believe in this stuff, but if you plot a zigzag on = the big markets you can certainly see some patterns of waves in some = time frames. I don't want to be like the Psychic Networks owner who appeared in = Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the question, "Well, why didn't = you see this coming?" DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Rolf Hertenstein=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 11:18 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Hey DMC - What are the dates of your double-bottom bottoms? My guess is = you're looking at a shorter timeframe (the 8 weeks you mention?) than I = am. I was looking at a daily SP-500 chart over 2 years and can imagine = an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about March 2002, handle last 8 weeks. = DOW and NASD look similar. Problems with this picture: 1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 or so) has the left side cup as a = blip on a longer downtrend. 2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't mean it'll resolve to the upside. Rolf ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 10:42 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Ian, What I see here (putting aside the letter writers, pundits, etc.) = is a market which has extremely low volatility and which has gone = nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 weeks. If you pull up a daily = on the SPX you can see a double top and then a trailing off. The VIX = chart is extremely unusual in its low leveling off. It's like a market = that has been drugged. Will it break out to the topside or the bottomside? Or, more = dangerously, will it break out sharply to the topside to lure all the = little bugs into the spider's web and then break down like nobody's = business? I don't know, obviously, or I'd be filthy rich, but it seems = to me that we are in the inflection zone for something to happen. One thing I've learned is that it won't be a top until the bears = have been pretty much completely shaken out (not yet, imho), just as = it's almost never a great bottom until people are terrified to commit = one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting the market in = droves. July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just throwing in the = towel and we had a bottom. March 2000 was a classic case of bears (or = just plain logical thinkers) just giving up--there were articles about = Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson closed his fund. Since I don't see the bears giving up quite yet, and the bulls = complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some vicious spikes coming = our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm not sure. DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 9:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Hi DMC: One thing I find a little ironic here is that most of the = pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a non-scientific = sample size) appear to be bearish, because everyone is bullish. Doesn't = that make everyone really bearish, allowing us to continue to climb the = wall of worry? Cheers, Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0482_01C3626B.34872280 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Sorry, I was asking for the two bottoms = to the=20 double bottom.  BUT, you did say double TOP to the SP-500 in your = original=20 post.  Amazing how the mind works.  I'd been reading about = double=20 bottoms earlier today in another context, so, even though I read your = original=20 post twice, my mind saw 'double bottom'.  I should go outside for a = couple=20 of days.
 
The 'virtual' CWH I see has a left cup = March 2002,=20 spiky bottom with lows July 2002, October 2002, and March 2003, = right-hand cup=20 June 2003, and handle since.  But I always have had an over-active=20 imagination - the handle caught my eye first.
 
The EW stuff is interesting to ponder = but I do try=20 to keep such predictions in my (failing) mind's back burner.  In = the past=20 I've acted out of phase with the market in anticipation of forecast = moves. =20 Took me a while to stop that, and I've done better since.
 
Thanks for the = clarification.
 
 Rolf
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DMC197807
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2003 = 1:29=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Rolf:
 
Double bottom bottoms?  I'm = confused, since=20 I was talking about a single double top in this sideways market.  = The=20 double top in the SPX is definitely on a shorter time frame:  I = have a=20 top at 1015.3 around June 10 and 1015.4 around July 14.
 
The last double bottoms in SPX were = July and=20 September last year.  I don't see CWH here, but I'm enormously=20 unimaginative.
 
Easier to see (or pre-imagine, as I = like to say)=20 is the potential for this to melt down, big picture, into a 5-step EW = down=20 with 1015 as the new top, and the new bottom somewhere in the 500s or=20 600s.  In other words, instead of us registering The Bottom in = 2002, we=20 would simply have registered The Bottom of 2002, to be eclipsed by The = Bottom=20 (September?  November? of 2003)???
 
The EW folk would see (I think) a top = at 1315, a=20 leg down to 944 (1), a leg up to 1177 (2), a leg down to 775 (3), a = leg up to=20 965 (4) and the last leg down to 768 (5).
 
Now, the countertrend might be a leg = up to 960=20 (1), down to 800 (2) and up to 1015 (3).
 
And now for the next leg.  If = the Ewavers=20 are right, time for a big down leg (250-300 pts?), an up leg (120 = pts?) and=20 then the crusher down 350-400 pts or so??
 
I don't necessarily believe in this = stuff, but if=20 you plot a zigzag on the big markets you can certainly see some = patterns of=20 waves in some time frames.
 
I don't want to be like the Psychic = Networks=20 owner who appeared in Bankruptcy Court and had to deal with the = question,=20 "Well, why didn't you see this coming?"
 
 
 
 
DMC
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Rolf=20 Hertenstein
Sent: Thursday, August 14, = 2003 11:18=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Hey DMC -
 
What are the dates of your = double-bottom=20 bottoms?  My guess is you're looking at a shorter timeframe = (the 8=20 weeks you mention?) than I am.
 
I was looking at a daily = SP-500 chart over=20 2 years and can imagine an 18-month CWH. Left-side of cup about = March 2002,=20 handle last 8 weeks.  DOW and NASD look = similar.
 
Problems with this = picture:
1. Longer-term view (back to 1999 = or so) has=20 the left side cup as a blip on a longer = downtrend.
2. Even if it is a CWH, doesn't = mean it'll=20 resolve to the upside.
 
 Rolf
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 DMC197807
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, August 14, = 2003 10:42=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Ian,
 
What I see here (putting aside = the letter=20 writers, pundits, etc.) is a market which has extremely low = volatility and=20 which has gone nowhere but sideways to down for about 8 = weeks.  If=20 you pull up a daily on the SPX you can see a double top and then a = trailing off.  The VIX chart is extremely unusual in its low = leveling=20 off.  It's like a market that has been drugged.
 
Will it break out to the topside = or the=20 bottomside?  Or, more dangerously, will it break out sharply = to the=20 topside to lure all the little bugs into the spider's web and then = break=20 down like nobody's business?  I don't know, obviously, or I'd = be=20 filthy rich, but it seems to me that we are in the inflection zone = for=20 something to happen.
 
One thing I've learned is that it = won't be a=20 top until the bears have been pretty much completely shaken out = (not yet,=20 imho), just as it's almost never a great bottom until people are = terrified=20 to commit one more dime to the market, in fact, they are exiting = the=20 market in droves.  July 2002 was a classic case of bulls just = throwing in the towel and we had a bottom.  March 2000 was a = classic=20 case of bears (or just plain logical thinkers) just giving = up--there were=20 articles about Warren Buffet being washed up, Julian Robertson = closed his=20 fund.
 
Since I don't see the bears = giving up quite=20 yet, and the bulls complacent, I'm concerned that we may have some = vicious=20 spikes coming our way, but in which order and which direction, I'm = not=20 sure.
 
DMC
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, August = 14, 2003=20 9:45 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = for Short=20 Selling

Hi DMC:
 
One thing I find a little ironic here is = that most of=20 the pundits (the ones that I come across anyhow, clearly a=20 non-scientific sample size) appear to be bearish, because = everyone is=20 bullish. Doesn't that make everyone really bearish, allowing us = to=20 continue to climb the wall of worry?
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
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