From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #413 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, October 16 1998 Volume 02 : Number 413 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do [CANSLIM] alert: fed cuts both rates .25% Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do [CANSLIM] Now THAT'S A Follow-Through Day! [CANSLIM] Follow through day Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #412 [CANSLIM] Stocks to Watch [CANSLIM] off lows? [CANSLIM] off lows Re: [CANSLIM] off lows? Re: [CANSLIM] off lows? [CANSLIM] a couple of stocks [CANSLIM] Speaking of bottom-fishing . . . [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] Arms index [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] Bull Market [CANSLIM] Arms index / M / etc. Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] M - am in and buying [CANSLIM] Why am I skeptical? Re: [CANSLIM] Why am I skeptical? Re: [CANSLIM] Why am I skeptical? Fw: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 19:22:07 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do >I can't believe that >IBD just folded back a chart book and took a picture of it). Actually, what I think they did is scan the charts from the layout film (which sunsequently is use to print the newspaper). The person who did the scanning obviously don't knows how to handle film or used the wrong kind of scanner for this job. He/she could have printed the graph on paper and then scanned the paper. Or even better: he/she could have made a screen capture from the graph on the host computer and put the picture directly on the web-page. It's a free web-site so we can't complain, but WON should take note that such sloppy work is bad publicity. Just my opinion ofcourse. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 11:07:11 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do <> You may be right, but since there's a slight curve to one side and what looks like pages behind, it looks to me like they photographed a book. Either way, if this is the level of techno-wizardry that IBD staffers have achieved, it's no wonder that the DG Beta test took so long. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 11:11:09 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do <> You Europeans are so darned clever. Why didn't you remind me of this when I was copying all this stuff into Word? :) - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 21:15:23 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do >You Europeans are so darned clever. I'll have to award you 10/10 for the category 'broad generalisations'. B^) >Why didn't you remind me of this >when I was copying all this stuff into Word? :) Maybe because I figured that a clever guy like you, who is able to produce such neat web pages, knew basic stuff like this. OOTR: Ian's Newsletter just arrived, looks like another 'jewel'. I'm off to read it now. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 12:19:59 -0700 From: mikelu Subject: [CANSLIM] alert: fed cuts both rates .25% - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 15:22:01 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do At 07:49 AM 10/15/98 -0700, you wrote: > ><the Marder articles you refer to?>> > >There are 6 altogether. Easiest is to go to the most recent and pick >up the rest by using the hotlinks in the articles. You may also need >some paint program or other to capture the graphs (they are >considerably better than those in the IBD series; I can't believe that >IBD just folded back a chart book and took a picture of it). > >http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw > >--Db > Thanks Db, I'd gotten one or two, but now have them all. For those interested, I have captured them into .pdf files. Those files are read by Adobe's Acrobat Reader, which is freely available on the I-net. The graphics are imbedded in the .pdf document, so all elements of the HTML document are contained in one file. I will gladly e-mail them to you if you so desire. Just do not respond to the mail list with your request. Please email privately to: wolynski@mindspring.com Warning the file is 1.7meg zipped. The individual .pdf's range from 254k to 500k. Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 12:43:13 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do <>> I've been working with PSP so much lately that I completely forgot about Navigator. Chalk it up to tunnel vision. And as far as the "neat" web pages go, consider yourself lucky that Hands Across The Sea is only a metaphor :) - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 21:57:28 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Things To Do >And as far as the "neat" web pages go, consider yourself lucky that >Hands Across The Sea is only a metaphor :) > >--Db I'm not familiar with that metaphor, but I guess it is best I keep it that way. ;^) Seriously know: Good job on the Q & A part. Recommend people read it starting at: http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/QandA.html Also love the humor you put into the more Q & A links. But it is still ugly... (had to add that, ofcourse) ;^) BTW, re:'M' at this rate we'll be at new highs before one can say what happened. All alarms I'd ever put into my quote screens went of, just when I sat down in my lazy chair... Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 13:09:12 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Now THAT'S A Follow-Through Day! Whoa! Lock up your daughters. There's a party on the floor. There's still heavy resistance to get through, but I think we can say we've seen the bottom. Too bad we couldn't get reversals, but you can't have everything. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 16:08:48 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow through day > Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 13:18:10 -0700 (PDT) > From: dbphoenix > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followthrough Day > > "A follow-through day should give the feeling of an explosive rally > that is strong, decisive, and conclusive, not begrudging and on the > fence . . .." > > Was today that sort of day? > > - --Db > Didn't seem to be, but the "window" remains open for 8 days beginning October 13. Today is the second follow through, except the DOW which is day one. Unfortunate that today's move came on "news". To draw any fair conclusions, it would seem prudent to see how the indices behave within the "window", where sentiment has gone and how the leadership (if any) emerges. Impossible and imprudent to make judgments while the "window" is still open and the recent low is in tact. JW - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 13:19:34 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day <> Perhaps. But the lows held, except for the Naz, and revisiting them a third time would, according to O'N, be a sign of weakness. The midpoints of the Ws on the S&P and Naz coincide with their 200d MAs. The 200d MAs of the Dow and NYSE are considerably higher. The S&P is only twenty points away from ploughing through that resistance. If it can do so, that will be a big plus. The NYSE is now above its 50d and 10 points away from its W midpoint. The Dow cleared its 50d and the midpoint of its W today. Whether all these averages can hold here is an open question. But all of this is extremely positive and will not go unnoticed. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 16:21:41 EDT From: Coolcat895@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #412 email cut out in middle of second post. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:04:04 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks to Watch The following stocks are within 15% of new highs and have reasonably tight bases (considering what's been going on): ABS ABT ALO ASC ATK BAX BDX BOBE CTL CVS GNE JNJ LLY MRK NNS - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 21:28:14 -0400 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] off lows? Hi group.. I know its not canslim, but might we substitute "new lows" for "new highs" for "N".. if the market has in fact put in a bottom, which I am not totally convinced of quite yet, ( but close).. Then there are some very cheap stocks out there, I am having a hard time ignoring them.. Bought SDTI yesterday, and am watching ODP, OMKT, SPRI, PLAT, LBOR, CNKT, WAVO, BFT, PRMS, AFCI, CCI, XYLAN.. Seems to me that several blow off to a low on big volume one day, then rally on big volume the next, then move up.. Perfect example of this would be SDTI, in the past week or so, ones that have put in a small base look best to me.. Some of these are basing up on there low.. Anyone have any thoughts on this? Is it bottom fishing? Just seems to me that you don't get a chance to buy good stocks at these discounts very often, and that they would move up faster than stocks that are at there highs now? Hope to hear your thoughts.. joe joscott@mindspring.com http://www.mindspring.com/~joscott/ icq..#..289837 - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 21:32:46 -0400 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] off lows oh,, and btw,, you would certainly have to close your eyes to RS.. some of these are in single digits.. ;-) but then this is a unique time in the market, wouldn't you say? joe joscott@mindspring.com http://www.mindspring.com/~joscott/ icq..#..289837 - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 19:39:29 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] off lows? <> You have to be very careful here, Joe. Buying a stock just because it's cheap is not bottom-fishing. Bottom-fishing has its own rules and cautions and techniques and considerations, just as momentum investing or any other sort. Suggest you start here > http://www.pathfinder.com/money/earnings/mstory3.html with this article on buying "ex"-momentum stocks. Also look at what The Fool and AAII have on value investing. The CS cautions about buying off bases and c&h and double-bottom patterns apply here, but some of the other elements will, of course, be different. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 20:12:37 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] off lows? There's also an article in today's Individual Investor (iionline.com) called "When Low Valuations Mean High Risk". - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 21:37:22 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] a couple of stocks For some reason I am still not convince the trouble is over, it seems too easy. Anyway, if anyone wants a couple of ideas, two stocks that stood out tonight as I flipped through stocks on my watch list were IBM and SEIC. IBM has held up very well through all the trouble, if it actually is over, IBM would seem like a stock ready to move higher. SEIC spiked up on good earnings, but it isn't coming out of any sort of base. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 20:52:22 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Speaking of bottom-fishing . . . Interesting Cramer article today. http://fnews.yahoo.com/street/wrong.html - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 19:25:51 +1300 From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] Arms index Today Ralph Bloch, chief market analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc. unearthed research on an indicator with a 100 percent accuracy rate of predicting a substantial market advance. Going back to 1962, two days in a row of readings of 0.5 or less on the Arms index has always resulted in a significant rally. This happened Thursday and Friday of last week. It also occurred on April 29 and April 30 of 1997 and again in 1984. The Arms index is a technical indicator that measures market breadth. Arms Index: Developed by Richard Arms, he gives an analogy that looking at an outside thermometer during winter from inside your home does not give an adequate representation of how cold it is outside. In addition, one must consider the speed of the wind and thus the wind-chill effect. Relating the analogy to a market, the price movement alone is not adequate when judging the health of a trend. One must also consider volume. The Arms Index has had many names over the years; Short Term Trading Index, TRIN and MKDS. It's a rather simple index designed to quantify if a market move is substantiated by significant volume. It's calculation is: (Advancing Issues / Declining Issues) / (Advancing Volume / Declining Volume). A lower value is bullish and a higher value is bearish. Three factors determine whether the market action was bullish or bearish. First, it's bullish if the number of advancing issues is greater than the number of declining issues. Second, it's bullish if the up volume outpaces the down volume. Third, it's bullish if the Arms Index is less than 1.00. These three factors combined give insight into the market action. If there's more (less) advancing issues, more (less) up volume, and the Arms Index is below (above) 1.00, then this can be considered a bullish (bearish) day. If there's more (less) advancing issues, more (less) up volume, but the Arms Index is above (below) 1.00, then while seemingly bullish (bearish), it may be flagging a warning due to the fact that the number of declining (advancing) issues are receiving more than their share of volume. Tip #1: A market is neutral when the Arms Index equals 1.00 and the index falls between .75 and 1.15 about 70% of the time. However, readings below .50 and above 1.75 are rare and reflect panic in the emotional states of traders. Tip #2: Due to the division in the calculation, values are restricted on the low side (1.00 to 0), but not on the high side (1.00 to infinity). Consequently, lower and lower numbers are more and more difficult to produce. Tip #3: The index can be used as an intraday tool to aid buying and selling, but it is best used as part of a moving average to give a longer term view of a market. I'm skeptical of the 100 percent accurancy rate (markets adjust) but here is what this this ratio can do: An Interview with with Martin E. Zweig on 27-May-98 ~ The ultimate market pragmatist, Marty keeps a vast array of technical and fundamental indicators, which he employs in careful reference to both historical precedent and current practicalities. But he's married to none, skeptical always and -- classic worrywart that he is -- capable of switching sides of the market on a dime. For the nonce, the money manager, publisher of the Zweig Forecast and head honcho at the Zweig mutual-fund group. Q: The question is: What happens after the initial snapback rallies -- like Tuesday's? Does the market flatline? A: Say we've come back 5% or whatever and so maybe the market is flattish over the next three to six months. At least, if you are a stockpicker, you can survive in that environment. If you told me the worst case is flat over the next three to six months, I'd say okay. Granted, I'd probably want to get our exposure down -- because why take the risk? But when I see my monetary indicators positive, in this situation, I can see more upside than that. And there was another bullish technical indicator this week I want to mention. Q: Which is? A: I wrote an article about this one in Barron's, back in May 1982. It's called TRIN, the trading index Richard Arms invented, so sometimes it's called the Arms Index. We had an enormous TRIN on Monday; my unofficial number was 8.97, which is the third-highest one I've ever gotten. Q: And TRIN, for the technically challenged, is -- A: TRIN is the advance/decline ratio, divided by the up/down volume ratio on the New York Stock Exchange. I only have data back through 1965, because up/down volume data weren't collected until sometime in 1964. I follow TRIN on a 10-day moving average basis, and if the 10-day average hits 1.5, it's pretty bullish. Q: That doesn't happen very often. A: No. If you take out what were essentially duplicate signals, like September '74 and November '74, there have been only six previous signals. I'll give you the months: September '66, May '70, September '74, March '80, August '82, October '87. Every one of those signals came within moments of the bottom of a bear market. In '87, in all fairness, you actually got the signal on the Friday before the Crash. And obviously, the first day after that was horrible. But I'm not trying to say the signal occurred simultaneously with the bottom. In '66, it came when you were within a week or two of the bottom. In May of '70, it was about two weeks before the bottom. The September '74 signal was about a week before the bottom. In March of '80, you were right about at the bottom and the same with August '82. But even measuring from the day of the signal, so including Oct. 16, 1987, when you got killed the next trading day, the average gain one year later was 28.9% on the S&P. If you waited one day to buy, that average gain would have been 33%. I'm not trying to make a federal case here, it's only one indicator. But this indicator is designed to show an oversold market where there is a lot of fear. Where there is a tremendous concentration of dumping of stocks. The up/down volume ratio was 169-to-1 on the downside on Monday. The only day higher than that, ever, in my numbers, was Oct. 19, 1987, when it was in the ballpark of 500-to-1. So if you want to talk about heavy concentrated selling, fear and panic, you had it on Monday. Now, that doesn't prove you're at a bottom. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 22:12:07 +1300 From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M I am starting to get bullish on the market with the tehnicals and fundamentals coming together; along with the maket tone. The final test test is on Friday. The maket should react positvely to the Federal rate cut, on this piece of bullish news. If we don't get some explosive upside in volume and percentage change on the indexes, then I consider that market is still weak and all bets are off. For those who may have expected a cut, (I certaintly didn't ) would come before the Nov. 17 meeting, the timing of the move was probably surprising. "The decision to announce it after 3 p.m. is out of character," wrote Goldman Sachs money-market economist John Youngdahl in a research note, "since the pattern for the last dozen years has been to make all rate change announcements either immediately following an FOMC meeting or very early in the U.S. trading day." The Fed's unusual timing meant that the surprise move had maximum effect on the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, for the second time in 16 days, let the sword fall and sliced the fed funds and discount rates by 25 basis points each, an action that will reverberate loudly around the world. New Zealand now has the luxury along with most of the other countries of the world, to reduce their interest rates without causing severe fluctuations in their exchange rates.I was reading some where that oil (major economic commodity) is cheaper today adjusted for inflation; in real terms than in the 1960's. There has been a previous deflationary period in commodities during the last century, that was to last for 25 years If commodities like gold and oil, and the Japanese Nikkei ever do make a comeback and reach new highs, it will be in the next century in my opinion. His action has greatly increased the chances that the Bundesbank -- in close consultation with the European Central Bank -- will cut its repo rate, now at 3.3%, before the official start of European Monetary Union on Jan. 1. The S&P futures (globex) is reflecting the upside 1065.00 change 54.20 10/16 1:45 Historically, the answer is "it's good for transports, it's good for consumer cyclicals and it's good for financials,"according to Cliggott. Cliggott's team has been overweight cyclicals for a while and recently went to an overweight on transports. They've been underweight financials since Feb. 17, though. "We've got to think about putting some money into financials," he said. "I don't know if we want to put money in tomorrow, but we have to start thinking in that direction. The motivation there is that we've got a yield curve that's on it's way to being normally shaped." When the Fed eases, it causes a more positive yield curve. That creates a better earnings environment for financial institutions. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 22:39:03 +1300 From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] Bull Market London, Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks surged around the world, led by financial-services companies and exporters, on hopes a surprise interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve would set off a wave of rate cuts elsewhere. ``This wasn't expected,'' said Hubert Challe, who manages $3.3 billion at CCF Gestion in Paris. ``It'll give financial markets renewed confidence. The rate cut, coupled with the fact Japan's bank-reform law was passed, signals better times for the banking sector.'' By Kennis Kwan, Bridge News Hong Kong--Oct 16--Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed sharply higher by 9.0% today as the Hong Kong Association of Banks (HKAB) is likely to cut key deposit rates by at least 25 basis points after its regular weekly meeting at 1630 local time (0830 GMT), brokers said. The Hang Seng Index closed at 9,777.01, up 806.59 points. Turnover surged to HK $14.7 billion from $5.9 billion Thursday. * * * The HKAB is likely to follow suit after the US Federal Reserve surprisingly announced a rate cut in the federal funds rate target to 5.00% from 5.25%, and a cut in the discount rate to 4.75% from 5.00%, in an unusual inter-meeting move. The Fed had not changed the discount rate since Jan 1996. Hong Kong's key deposit rate is currently 5.25% and the Prime rate is 10.0%. HKAB meets every Friday to set key interest rates offered on bank deposits of less than 1 week, and any change typically triggers a similar movement in Prime (best-lending) rates among local banks. Apart from retail investors, regional fund institutions took the chance to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks today as these major market participants are currently holding lots of cash, said Jerry Pang, a dealer at HSBC James Capel Asia. He added that fund houses may like to dress up their accounts before the end of the year. Frankfurt, Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to cut U.S. rates raises pressure on German and other European central banks to follow with their own cuts three months before the start of Europe's single currency. The percentage surges with different countries are terrific. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 09:38:40 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Arms index / M / etc. Dean, Just a note to let you know how much I always appreciate your posts. They are outstanding contributions to the list. Thank you. Best Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 16:29:08 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M Dean wrote: >I am starting to get bullish on the market with the tehnicals and >fundamentals coming together; along with the maket tone.ates a better >earnings environment for financial institutions. Dean, Thank you for the interesting post about TRIN. Can I ask you what you mean with "fundamentals coming together"? Are you pointing to the rate cut or to companies earnings? re Bullish/Bearish: I'm neutral on the markets right now. The rate cut was unexpected and I look at the one day explosion as a emotional reaction by short coverers and people with to much cash trained during 8 long years to buy the dips. No I don't think this rate cute will solve a the economic problems in the world. But it is a step in the right direction. We have serious resistance near the 200MA's. I see very little CANSLIM stocks in nice bases. The new highs/new lows ratio is still very bad. Most stocks are still being distributed. Acc/Dist rating of D or E. We have already had a bear market rally of almost 13% in the NASDAQ that resulted in many failed break-outs. Everyone so sure that it can't happen again? I'm sure there are those who will be delighted to see my slightly bearish/neutral stance as a bullish signal. So I hope I just made them very happy with this comment. I'll continue to carefully watch the market for now. - -- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 14:52:48 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M On Fri, 16 Oct 1998 16:29:08 +0100, you wrote: : :re Bullish/Bearish: : :I'm neutral on the markets right now. : :The rate cut was unexpected and I look at the one day explosion as a :emotional reaction by short coverers and people with to much cash = trained :during 8 long years to buy the dips. No I don't think this rate cute = will :solve a the economic problems in the world. But it is a step in the = right :direction. : The rate cut was not all that unexpected. I have heard a lot of talk about a possible rate cut between the scheduled FOMA meetings. The fact that the cut was announced 45 minutes before the markets closed was a tactical coup that caused a flurry of buying, and is pretty much unprecidented. I don't know how this was decided or if it was a *conscious decision*. Note the article on page one of IBD today, which includes speculation that the FED knows something as yet undisclosed that will (when revealed) further weaken the picture, thus the preemptive cuts. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 08:06:55 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M <> IMO, what matters to many people is not so much the possibility or probability of further weakness. Everybody already knew that. They kvetched about Russia, Japan, Brazil, the dollar, a possible recession, deflation, negative earnings, share redemptions, impeachment hearings, the IMF, etc., etc. The headline now is that somebody might actually be willing to do something about it and that the Fed seems to be intent on doing whatever it has to do to either prevent serious problems from getting worse, or even to make them less serious. The world, in so many words, is not going to come to an end after all. The markets, for the most part, discounted the worst. Now there has been a shift in psychology. IMO, that is what changes the outlook. This is not to say that we're going to begin a 45 degree incline toward new highs, but unless an asteroid hits New York, the prospect of 5500 is extremely unlikely. BTW, as far as bases go, don't neglect the trusty W, as well as the rectangular base. Quite a few of those lying around. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 98 11:16:26 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - am in and buying > New Zealand now has the luxury along with most of the other countries = of the > world, to reduce their interest rates without causing severe fluctuatio= ns in > their exchange rates.... > > His action has greatly increased the chances that the Bundesbank -- in = close > consultation with the European Central Bank -- will cut its repo rate, = now > at 3.3%, before the official start of European Monetary Union on Jan. = 1. - ------- The Bank of Canada just cut its key bank lending rate this morning by 25 basis points down to 5.50 % . I am also getting more bullish on M. Why? My primary indicators are = the follow through day and the sentiment numbers in IBD (which still show a = slight preponderance of bears). My secondary "non - M noise" items are improving as well : Japan market = stabilizing, Brazil relief package seemingly on the way, debt disaster in Russia now = history, LTCM unwinding positions in some semblance of order, and no uncontrolled= meltdown in other hedge funds so far. So yesterday morning, just before the rate cut, and for the first time = since June, I bought equities (33% of retirement plan committed, with the rest still = in bonds). Skillful timing ? No.... Just luck. Am now thinking about committing more. Just wondering though... does = Greenspan know about something just around the corner that we don't ? BTW, Dean thanks again for the outstanding material on Arms. Walter - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 11:41:01 -0500 From: Steve Hilton Subject: [CANSLIM] Why am I skeptical? Alright, from lurker to poster. Got the buy signal on the Naz on Wed. I thought it was weak considering the poor volume on Tuesday. With yesterday's action, got another buy signal on the Naz and on the Dow. These looked like legit buy signals to me. So why am I not convinced? Back to lurking, Steve - -- Steve Hilton email: shilton1@email.mot.com Motorola Inc. voice: (847) 632-4186 MS IL75/2J4 fax: (847) 632-4164 1475 W. Shure Dr., Arlington Heights, IL 60004 - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 09:56:24 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Why am I skeptical? <> Well, Maria was all excited about it. That's good enough for me :) - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 12:59:26 -0400 From: Tom Moulton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Why am I skeptical? Steve Hilton wrote: > So why am I not convinced? > > Back to lurking, > > Steve > > -- If we had the action we saw yesterday without the news of rate cutting then it would be Great. I'd wait for the news to fade and see where the prices and volume leave us... (not to mention we need time for greenspan to leave things alone for the world to stablize) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 06:50:11 +1300 From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M First of all, I would like to say a couple of things to the group. The best thing you can ever do, when your in cash is just to do nothing. The market is not going to run away from anyone. The best analyst is yourself! Just sit tight.The market could take weeks or months to reach new highs or break out into a meaningful trend. Alarm bells go off in my head because I do not want to influence anyone, as my analysis could be completely wrong! I think of the market as a giant jigsaw puzzle. No one has the complete picture. But as a group, people can contribute different pieces. I'm just bouncing ideals around. Already, we have now got a discussion and some interesting feedback on opposite points of view. I get the impression from this forum, that no likes to come out and take a stance. Heaven forbid, if they could possibly be wrong! I don't care, I wanna know what people are actually thinking! It only occurred to me a couple of months ago, when we started hitting those wild volatility swings - sharp down movements followed by quick retracements that this might be a bear market. At one stage, I envisage a global melt down / depression but --Db has put me back on on the bullish path. The bear market is not going to last for ever. >Can I ask you what you mean with "fundamentals coming together"? Are you >pointing to the rate cut or to companies earnings? I saw the fed fed rate as a major catalyst. My belief is that the liquidity cycle leads the economic cycle. If companies are reporting lower earnings, is that enough to cause a recession? I don't think so, at this point in time. - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, October 17, 1998 3:31 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM] M >Dean wrote: > >>I am starting to get bullish on the market with the tehnicals and >>fundamentals coming together; along with the maket tone.ates a better >>earnings environment for financial institutions. > >Dean, > >Thank you for the interesting post about TRIN. > >Can I ask you what you mean with "fundamentals coming together"? Are you >pointing to the rate cut or to companies earnings? > >re Bullish/Bearish: > >I'm neutral on the markets right now. > >The rate cut was unexpected and I look at the one day explosion as a >emotional reaction by short coverers and people with to much cash trained >during 8 long years to buy the dips. No I don't think this rate cute will >solve a the economic problems in the world. But it is a step in the right >direction. > >We have serious resistance near the 200MA's. I see very little CANSLIM >stocks in nice bases. The new highs/new lows ratio is still very bad. Most >stocks are still being distributed. Acc/Dist rating of D or E. > >We have already had a bear market rally of almost 13% in the NASDAQ that >resulted in many failed break-outs. Everyone so sure that it can't happen >again? > >I'm sure there are those who will be delighted to see my slightly >bearish/neutral stance as a bullish signal. So I hope I just made them very >happy with this comment. > >I'll continue to carefully watch the market for now. > > > >-- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #413 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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