From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #452 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, November 23 1998 Volume 02 : Number 452 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Vix Re: [CANSLIM] Vix Re: [CANSLIM] Vix [CANSLIM] Happy Thanksgiving. Re: [CANSLIM] Vix Re: [CANSLIM] Vix [CANSLIM] aza Re: [CANSLIM] aza Re: [CANSLIM] aza [CANSLIM] PPDI [CANSLIM] vtss [CANSLIM] IBI Re: [CANSLIM] IBI Re: [CANSLIM] vtss Re: [CANSLIM] IBI [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? Re: [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? Re: [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? [CANSLIM] MSFT Breakout [CANSLIM] Possible Breakouts Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Breakouts [CANSLIM] ATHM breakout Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Breakouts [CANSLIM] QTRN [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? Re: [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? Re: [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? Re: [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT [CANSLIM] Resistance/3 year charts Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT Re: [CANSLIM] Resistance/3 year charts Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT Re: [CANSLIM] Resistance/3 year charts [CANSLIM] MSFT Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT [CANSLIM] Breakout CPWR [CANSLIM] RPC continues Re: [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CPWR Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CPWR [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? Re: [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? Re: [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? [CANSLIM] Off Subject - AMZN, YHOO Re: [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 18:32:16 -0800 (PST) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Vix When the VIX is low, the Russell 2000 tends to perform well which means that it is good for CANSLIM type stocks. Conversely when the VIX is high the Russell 2000 performs poorly. Ciao, rolatzi - ---Patrick Wahl wrote: > > I noticed that the Vix index took a couple of sharp drops in the last > few days, to its lowest point since July, the old market high. I > think this is probably a good thing. A quick look at the last year of > price data makes it appear that the Vix is low during uptrends or > calm sideways movement, and of course high when the market is > going down or thrashing around with a lot of volatility. > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 21:43:15 -0800 From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Vix would you please explain what vix is? I havent a clue. Patrick Wahl wrote: > I noticed that the Vix index took a couple of sharp drops in the last > few days, to its lowest point since July, the old market high. I > think this is probably a good thing. A quick look at the last year of > price data makes it appear that the Vix is low during uptrends or > calm sideways movement, and of course high when the market is > going down or thrashing around with a lot of volatility. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 21:44:39 -0500 (EST) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Vix Rolatzi, >When the VIX is low, the Russell 2000 tends to perform well which >means that it is good for CANSLIM type stocks. Conversely when the >VIX is high the Russell 2000 performs poorly. You make a good point. It has been said many a times on this list that when VIX is below 20-25, CANSLIM type stocks do well. However, as of late, VIX has been down, but Russell 2000 does not seem to be doing as well as it was a couple of weeks ago. I have also heard others (not on this list) say that as VIX approaches 20 or so, that is an indication of a top in the market, e.g. July of this year. So I find such observations somewhat confusing, nevertheless interesting. Regards, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 23:06:54 EST From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Happy Thanksgiving. http://interface.123greetings.com/cards/11/22/20/81122200207824.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 21:16:59 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Vix Date sent: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 21:44:39 -0500 (EST) From: Deepak Kapur T > >When the VIX is low, the Russell 2000 tends to perform well which > >means that it is good for CANSLIM type stocks. Conversely when the > >VIX is high the Russell 2000 performs poorly. > > You make a good point. It has been said many a times on this list > that when VIX is below 20-25, CANSLIM type stocks do well. > > However, as of late, VIX has been down, but Russell 2000 does not > seem to be doing as well as it was a couple of weeks ago. The S&P has continued to move up, I think the Russell is probably taking a rest after rallying from 310 to 400 (29%) in a very short time. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 21:16:59 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Vix Date sent: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 21:43:15 -0800 From: David Reid > would you please explain what vix is? > I havent a clue. Generally, its a measure of volatility. I'm a bit fuzzy on specifics, but the VIX is the volatility index that is kept by the CBOE, a measure of volatility, I presume it is calculated by looking at premiums on options. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 23:15:23 -0800 From: "Louis Gipson, RN" Subject: [CANSLIM] aza Any comment on the chart for AZA? Seems like a cup started in late May '98 and has returned to just at new high on 11/20 on declining volume. No handle yet but I'm watching closely. Lou - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 14:48:24 +0700 From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] aza A healthy looking chart. 11/2/98 would have been a place to buy as it broke above resistance at 49.375. The fundamentals are not really up to CANSLIM standards. "Louis Gipson, RN" wrote: > Any comment on the chart for AZA? Seems like a cup started in late May > '98 and has returned to just at new high on 11/20 on declining volume. > No handle yet but I'm watching closely. > > Lou > > - - -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * "You have no choice about the necessity to integrate your observations, your experiences, your knowledge into abstract ideas, i.e., into principles. Your only choice is whether these principles are true or false, whether they represent your conscious, rational convictions - or a grab-bag of notions snatched at random, whose sources, validity, context and consequences you do not know, notions which, more often that not, you would drop like a hot potato if you knew." -- "Philosophy: Who Needs It," * - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 07:07:52 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] aza The sequential EPS is flat for four qtrs, despite steadily growing sales. Forecast for the full year is for only an 8% increase. With a PE of 41, and little earnings growth, hard for me to believe it can sustain this price. It's current rise in price is also on diminishing volume. Be careful with this one. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Louis Gipson, RN To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, November 23, 1998 2:20 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] aza Any comment on the chart for AZA? Seems like a cup started in late May '98 and has returned to just at new high on 11/20 on declining volume. No handle yet but I'm watching closely. Lou - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 05:40:02 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] PPDI About three weeks ago, I said that PPDI presented a good example of how one shouldn't just take a snap of color-coded volume and draw important conclusions from it as the bars can sometimes be very misleading. In this case, a volume spike looks like a negative, but the stock closed at its high for the day, only slightly below the previous day's close. If it had centimetered up just a bit, the bar would have been green. What was important was to read the story behind the bar, not just take it at face value. Though one could argue that it represents a selling climax, it also represents enormous support for the stock, at least at the time. Since then, it has formed a Mary Poppins cup, practically perfect in every way. Newbies who want to know what the volume pattern should look like in a cup should take note. It's not a CS cup because it's not wide enough (though we seem to be rewriting some rules on bases during this run), but the relationship between price and volume is very clear. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 08:08:42 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] vtss This might be the day vtss makes its move, up pretty good early anyway. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 07:06:48 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] IBI IBI is a Box 10, but it does have a nice chart pattern and is moving up through its buypoint. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 10:17:56 -0800 From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBI what is a box 10?? dbphoenix wrote: > IBI is a Box 10, but it does have a nice chart pattern and is moving > up through its buypoint. > > --Db > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 07:24:38 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] vtss <> Hope so. I bought last week when I posted it. I also just found out I got JKHY at a good price on a limit order I placed Friday at the bid. I didn't think I'd get it, so I didn't bother to check back until this morning. Nice way to start a Monday :) I explored FWH patterns a bit at my website this weekend. It seems that occurring at the end of a uptrend is more important with these than with the CWH, though I haven't looked at nearly enough to be sure. But given the quality stocks that are showing this pattern and that were in an uptrend before it occurred, I see no reason to bottom fish. With all the CWHs and HSs and bases of one sort or another, bottom-fishing just doesn't seem to be a smart choice right now. I'm noticing also that Woodward's guidelines regarding distance from the 50 and 200d MAs seems to be holding up very well, at least in terms of the 50. This may mean a shorting opportunity for Amazon, though it may have to be done through puts (and anyone who even thinks about it without real-time streaming quotes and a willingness to stay glued to the screen from open to close ought to be put away for his own good). - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 07:33:39 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBI <> It refers to a slow-grower, or relative slow-grower--a company whose earnings have increased less than 25% in the most recent quarter (or you can take an average of the most recent two quarters--it's just a guide to aid thinking; no one will come and get you if you adapt it to your own uses) and whose annual earnings are less than 25%. Actually, IBI is between a 9 and a 10. In any case, it ain't no 1. Current Earnings Growth Rate Annual Earnings >100 50-100 25-50 >50 #1 #2 #3 25-50 #4 #5 #6 15-25 #7 #8 #9 - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 09:38:57 -0700 From: Warren Keuffel Subject: [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? When looking at a chart for a stock that is basing following a cup & handle formation, what time frame should I use for deciding if the stock is breaking out of the base? Take a look at PNC on Bigcharts with settings at 5 days, 15 minutes. There are spikes of buying that are clearly above the average calculated by Volume+. Do I average those spikes with the selling periods for thus far today? If so, it looks like a breakout. Or do I wait for 1, 2, 3 or what days of 150% volume and make my decision based on the daily averages on a 1 year daily chart? Thanks. Warren Keuffel - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 08:50:06 -0800 (PST) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? Warren, I usually the day's total volume to determine if it looks like 150% of average volume. In particular I have my watch list on yahoo and have personalized the listing to give me average volume and days volume. I then try to extrapolate according to what fraction of the trading day is left. ciao, rolatzi - ---Warren Keuffel wrote: > > When looking at a chart for a stock that is basing following a cup & handle > formation, what time frame should I use for deciding if the stock is > breaking out of the base? > > Take a look at PNC on Bigcharts with settings at 5 days, 15 minutes. There > are spikes of buying that are clearly above the average calculated by > Volume+. Do I average those spikes with the selling periods for thus far > today? If so, it looks like a breakout. Or do I wait for 1, 2, 3 or what > days of 150% volume and make my decision based on the daily averages on a 1 > year daily chart? > > Thanks. > > Warren Keuffel > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 08:56:40 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? <> A "breakout" occurs when the price goes through its buypoint on 150% of ADV or better. While what happens during the days before and after may have some effect on this, they are irrelevant in terms of determining whether a breakout is or is not occurring. The increase in volume may take place one or two days before the price actually reaches the buypoint, but this has nothing to do with your decision to buy. The price must go through the buypoint on strong volume. If volume peters out at the buypoint, the stock may well just settle back into its base, as VTSS did last week. Case in point today is PTVL (not a CS stock or pattern). It's had several strong volume days recently, but none strong enough to propel it through its buypoint. That's being done today. If you believe, according to the strength shown in the morning, that your stock is going to achieve breakout volume later in the day, you can place your order with the intent of selling if the volume does not in fact come through (or you may leave it alone and use that day's low as a stop). Or if you're using something other than a deep-discount broker, you can give him instructions to buy if the stock gets through a certain price level on a minimum volume of so-and-so if you don't have time or opportunity to follow the market during the day. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 12:24:48 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] MSFT Breakout Pivot point 115. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 09:54:59 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Possible Breakouts CREE, ITGI, AEH are three HGS stocks with good to excellent CANSLIM characteristics that look to be popping the cork on volume this morning. CREE esp. looks impressive, although it may be out of reach already. AEH is on a merger approval so it is probably not worth it. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 13:00:58 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Breakouts Agree with your read on CREE - multi-year base, very short handle, strong action. Difficult to read, pivot at 30 or 33ish. I'm in. Haven't looked at the others yet. At 09:54 AM 11/23/98 -0800, you wrote: >CREE, ITGI, AEH are three HGS stocks with good to excellent CANSLIM >characteristics that look to be popping the cork on volume this morning. CREE >esp. looks impressive, although it may be out of reach already. AEH is on a >merger approval so it is probably not worth it. > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 13:02:04 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] ATHM breakout Re: ATHM Getting to be a bit late on this one. Actual breakout on which I bought was with the pivot point at 52-53 (unclear exactly, but above 53 definitely clears the hurdle). Followthrough today with a secondary (higher pivot point) at 55 (bought more today at 55 1/8). Not CS vis-a-vis earnings. Otherwise CS due to group rel strength override. Re: MSFT Similar to ATHM. Primary pivot is at 115. Secondary pivot is at 119 5/8. MSFT is not CS because Shares out are too large. Otherwise is CS because of Leadership override. Both MSFT and ATHM are not "pure Canslim" but close enough to buy using CS techniques. They fit the mold - mostly. Few fit perfectly. CREE is probably one of those, but even in CREE's case there was a problem - breakout was from very low levels. Recently it formed a 3 or 4 day handle on a two year double bottom and broke out today. For those of you looking for valid bases to study, take a look at MSFT and ATHM. Notice that bases are apparent after they partially have formed, not when initially starting to form (after 6 weeks or so, out from an old high it becomes pretty obvious). The MSFT base starts with the high on 07/17/98 of 119 5/8. Notice the resistance that occurs at 115 since then. Note the preparation for launch from the trading action 11/23 (Friday). Today is the breakout (stock price has broken out to "new high ground", ie above resistance at 115+). Note that the trading on 11/6, 11/10, 11/11, 11/12 is not breakout from a cup with handle because no significant new high is being set. Those trading days are simply a continuation of the basing action. Take a look at ATHM. See where the base starts? You tell me. See why 52-53 is one of the pivots? Not as obvious as MSFT, but same concept. See why 55 is actual pivot. I would read MSFT as a flat base in about a 20% range (from 95ish to 115). I would read ATHM as a cup with handle (although not a very good example of one) with the handle forming from 11/11 through 11/18. (The cup forms before this from the old high). Hope this helps. Best Regards, Craig PS. I usually don't post much because of limited time these days. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 13:07:33 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Breakouts ITGI went last week, too late unless it pulls back. AEH, no recent base - I would avoid even with out the merger thing. I have not personally checked either for CS numbers. At 09:54 AM 11/23/98 -0800, you wrote: >CREE, ITGI, AEH are three HGS stocks with good to excellent CANSLIM >characteristics that look to be popping the cork on volume this morning. CREE >esp. looks impressive, although it may be out of reach already. AEH is on a >merger approval so it is probably not worth it. > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 10:17:41 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] QTRN QTRN finally breaking out after all these weeks. If it can hold above 52, it should be a very nice move. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 13:21:04 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? Tim Fisher wrote,, >>characteristics that look to be popping the cork on volume this morning. CREE >esp. looks impressive, although it may be out of reach already.<<<< I guess so,, Am I missing something with CREE,, or looking at a bad chart,, I'm looking at a stock that has moved from 15.00 to 30.00 (doubled) in the past 5 weeks,,?? where's the base? pivot at 30.00 ,, 33.00??? Seems to me it should only have been considered 5 weeks ago when it broke to 20.00,, if you could have got in at maybe 18.00/19.00... I'd be looking for a pull back now.. ,,, joe (o o) =oOO==(_)==OOo======== - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 13:39:53 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? At 01:21 PM 11/23/98 -0500, you wrote: >I guess so,, >Am I missing something with CREE,, or looking at a bad chart,, >I'm looking at a stock that has moved from 15.00 to 30.00 (doubled) in the >past 5 weeks,,?? >where's the base? pivot at 30.00 ,, 33.00??? >Seems to me it should only have been considered 5 weeks ago when it broke to >20.00,, if you could have got in at maybe 18.00/19.00... I'd be looking for >a pull back now.. I agree 100%. That was the time to buy. But ... look at a 2 year chart - oops sorry, it is a 3 year chart with the old high on 08/18/95 at 31 1/2 - and you will see a multi-year double bottom with upside "resistance" at about 30. This is an awful type of chart to buy off of, but I did it based on yesterdays action at 30. Risk is extremely high and agree that it may pull back. I would not buy it today at 35, in fact I did not like paying 30 for it, but there you go. Really, only barely "legal" within Canslim, if that. But I can justify the buy after the pause at resistance. I took a VERY small position in a stock that looks too strong not to own. I would not recommend this with other than "play money". But Canslim principles lead me to the conclusion that it is a buy at this (30-33) point, although it is not really Canslim. Thanks for forcing the explanation! I had half a mind to write one before you asked. > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 10:52:01 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? <> You're probably the only member of this group who's never acted with half a mind at any time. But I have to wonder why anyone would be interested in anything less than the best when so many high-quality stocks are breaking out? And it's not even December yet. There are a lot of ultra-conservatives out there who'll be drawn in when the market makes a new high. And, again, the time of year couldn't be better. Buying something one shouldn't be buying and being successful with it is always satisfying, but over anything but the very short term, following O'N's advice and buying the best will pad the wallet just fine. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 13:56:20 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: CREE ? Agreed Db,, I generally don't even act with as much as a half a mind.. and Craig, good luck with CREE.. ,,, joe (o o) =oOO==(_)==OOo======== - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 20:12:04 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT CMVT 96 93 A GRS 81 Telecpm-Equip pivot 54.25 vol almost there Now 55 5/8 x 56 1/8 Many more breakouts but not CS enough for me to mention here. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 14:19:05 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] Resistance/3 year charts Do you think resistance and support still carry the same weight beyond one year?? or in my thinking, that generally anyone that could be resistance/support would pretty much be gone, or not as apt to cause resistance/support because of the time passed?? I generally only look back at most 12 months, but then I have to admit I'm more a player of momentum first, canslim second. I'm kinda a believer in its all in the chart. Like Craig did, I would never have looked back three years for other highs. I looked at the chart back to the first of the year, and to how extended it was from the 14.00/18.00 base it had been in that whole time.. Always interesting to see how others do there research.. ,,, joe (o o) =oOO==(_)==OOo======== - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 14:26:41 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT >>>Many more breakouts but not CS enough for me to mention here.<<<< yes,, tonights scans will be interesting.. ,,, joe (o o) =oOO==(_)==OOo======== - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 14:38:56 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT Johan,, Do you worry about this type of chart in today's market, CMVT, particularly now because of these chart formations somewhat mirroring the DJIA chart? I see a lot of these lately.. Coming out of the depths of a "cup"? to then put in a small base or "handle"? then breaking out, maybe to a new high.. The fast/large run up from the depths of these cups scare me.. 30.00 to 50.00 in 6 weeks in CMVT's case.. Just something I have been thinking because I have seen this chart formation so much lately.. ,,, joe (o o) =oOO==(_)==OOo======== - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 14:40:01 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Resistance/3 year charts Joe, I know that resistance fades over time. That is why I put the word "resistance" in quotes in my early post when referring to CREE. But these long term bases are frequently meaningful and useful chart formations anyway. There is something about a stock reaching absolute new high ground, whether from a 8 week base or a 3 year base... Take a look at DELL's cup with handle from 12/31/92 to 04/13/95. (BTW. I believe one could have bought the breakout on 08/12/94 from that several month base within the larger formation - no need to wait). I sure was hoping that CREE would hang a nice long handle on the double-bottom formation (ie. form a new base) in the high 20's, but it was not to be. (Of course, it could still pull back and do that, but now that I am in, I sure hope not.) Best Regards, Craig At 02:19 PM 11/23/98 -0500, you wrote: > >Do you think resistance and support still carry the same weight beyond one >year?? >or in my thinking, that generally anyone that could be resistance/support >would pretty much be gone, or not as apt to cause resistance/support because >of the time passed?? >I generally only look back at most 12 months, but then I have to admit I'm >more a player of momentum first, canslim second. I'm kinda a believer in its >all in the chart. >Like Craig did, I would never have looked back three years for other highs. >I looked at the chart back to the first of the year, and to how extended it >was from the 14.00/18.00 base it had been in that whole time.. Always >interesting to see how others do there research.. > > ,,, > joe (o o) >=oOO==(_)==OOo======== > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 20:49:24 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT At 02:38 PM 23-11-98 -0500, you wrote: >Johan,, > >Do you worry about this type of chart in today's market, CMVT, particularly >now because of these chart formations somewhat mirroring the DJIA chart? No it doesn't worry me. As you say there are many like this one. It is banging against 56 area overhead from last July at the moment. Vol 150% ADV(30) now. Not exactly the hottest B/O of the day thusfar, but reasonable. On the otherhand I'm not the expert chart reader around here, so don't take this as advice. >I see a lot of these lately.. Coming out of the depths of a "cup"? to then >put in a small base or "handle"? then breaking out, maybe to a new high.. >The fast/large run up from the depths of these cups scare me.. 30.00 to >50.00 in 6 weeks in CMVT's case.. >Just something I have been thinking because I have seen this chart formation >so much lately.. > ,,, > joe (o o) >=oOO==(_)==OOo======== > > > > >- > > Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 14:49:18 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Resistance/3 year charts >>There is something about a stock reaching absolute new high ground, whether from a 8 week base or a 3 year base... <<< I agree 100 % I may start hitting that "zoom out" button more often,, ,,, joe (o o) =oOO==(_)==OOo======== - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 21:02:33 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] MSFT >Re: MSFT > >Similar to ATHM. Primary pivot is at 115. Secondary pivot is at 119 5/8. > >MSFT is not CS because Shares out are too large. Otherwise is CS because >of Leadership override. And it is not often that we get a super large cap breakout with corresponding CS-like volume-requirement of 150%+ ADV. MSFT already at 151% ADV (that is 1.51 x Av Daily Vol) today. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 12:05:16 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CMVT <> I'll grant you the cups are deep, but due to special circumstances. Keep in mind also that market conditions such as these haven't existed since 1990, so perhaps we need to be a bit more flexible and look at what's happening as opposed to what's supposed to be happening. Also worth noting is that O'N said in his recent series for IBD that the handles can be as short as one week, though I assume that's within the context of the timeframe for the pattern as a whole. Note also that there was a volume dryup in the handle that lasted a week before the stock began to move, and that it began its upmove after bouncing off the 17d (a lot of that going around lately). - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 03:09:19 +0700 From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout CPWR Breaking out on big volume. - -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * "When =91the common good=92 of a society is regarded as something apart from and superior to the individual good of its members, it means that the good of some men takes precedence over the good of others, with those others consigned to the status of sacrificial animals." -- "What is Capitalism?" Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal * - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 03:13:46 +0700 From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: [CANSLIM] RPC continues RPC is making a continuation move up, and could probably be bought at current levels. - -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * "When =91the common good=92 of a society is regarded as something apart from and superior to the individual good of its members, it means that the good of some men takes precedence over the good of others, with those others consigned to the status of sacrificial animals." -- "What is Capitalism?" Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal * - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 15:15:00 -0500 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time frame for breakout volume? What about PNC is CANSLIM? Warren Keuffel wrote: > When looking at a chart for a stock that is basing following a cup & handle > formation, what time frame should I use for deciding if the stock is > breaking out of the base? > > Take a look at PNC on Bigcharts with settings at 5 days, 15 minutes. There > are spikes of buying that are clearly above the average calculated by > Volume+. Do I average those spikes with the selling periods for thus far > today? If so, it looks like a breakout. Or do I wait for 1, 2, 3 or what > days of 150% volume and make my decision based on the daily averages on a 1 > year daily chart? > > Thanks. > > Warren Keuffel > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 21:18:40 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CPWR Peter, I'm watching that one also. BP 60.25 I have ADV(30) =3D 2282456 Vol today =3D 1,854,400 So the vol is less that ADV according to my data. Am I missing something? At 03:09 AM 24-11-98 +0700, you wrote: >Breaking out on big volume. > >-- >Peter Christiansen >Chiang Mai - Thailand > > >* "When =91the common good=92 of a society is regarded as something apar= t >from and superior to the individual good of its members, it means that >the good of some men takes precedence over the good of others, with >those others consigned to the status of sacrificial animals." -- "What >is Capitalism?" Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal * > > > >- > > Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 03:26:31 +0700 From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout CPWR Johan, You are correct about the volume; I read in incorrectly. I just returned home after an evening out, and am a little bleary eyed. Peter Johan Van Houtven wrote: > Peter, > > I'm watching that one also. > > BP 60.25 > > I have ADV(30) =3D 2282456 > > Vol today =3D 1,854,400 > > So the vol is less that ADV according to my data. > > Am I missing something? > > At 03:09 AM 24-11-98 +0700, you wrote: > >Breaking out on big volume. > > > >-- > >Peter Christiansen > >Chiang Mai - Thailand > > > > > >* "When =91the common good=92 of a society is regarded as something ap= art > >from and superior to the individual good of its members, it means that > >the good of some men takes precedence over the good of others, with > >those others consigned to the status of sacrificial animals." -- "What > >is Capitalism?" Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal * > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > Johan > > - - -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * "When =91the common good=92 of a society is regarded as something apart= from and superior to the individual good of its members, it means that the goo= d of some men takes precedence over the good of others, with those others consigned to the status of sacrificial animals." -- "What is Capitalism?" Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal * - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 21:35:52 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? I don't want to spoil the party, but I'm going to be extra careful from here on. Sentiment was already bullish and is getting very bullish now. Look at this mailing list today... Personally I'm rubbing my hands, and that is one of the signs Ian Woodward looks for when a market might be topping (short term). Just a warning to be careful. (Of course the market will go on to new highs form here, just to make me look real stupid. I know. :) Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 15:37:51 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? At 09:35 PM 11/23/98 +0100, you wrote: >I don't want to spoil the party, but I'm going to be extra careful from >here on. > >Sentiment was already bullish and is getting very bullish now. Look at this >mailing list today... > >Personally I'm rubbing my hands, and that is one of the signs Ian Woodward >looks for when a market might be topping (short term). > >Just a warning to be careful. Nice post. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 15:41:18 -0500 (EST) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? Johan, Your timings have been quite good in the past. I think this time also you are likely to be right. In the past, it has been when you go on vacation. Is that what you plan to do this time also???? Regards, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 15:29:09 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Off Subject - AMZN, YHOO There is some speculation about that AMZN and YHOO may merge. They have been trading in an weird sort of lock step all day. (Both at exactly the same price each time I check quotes). Maybe this post will break the spell ;^). - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 15:57:34 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rubbing your hands yet? CBOE Put/Calls nearing a low, .34, getting toward bear territory. AAII bears are non-existant at 18%, lowest since mid April. Investors Intelligence Bulls are 5 year record high at 57%. Your caution didn't translate as stupidity. It could very well go on to new highs from here. But if the clowns on CNBC are a contrary indicator, then all the jumping up and down and analysts pee-ing on themselves from the excitement should be added to your bag of tricks. I can't help but feel that any selling will be met with support at technical junctures. No guarantees mind you (as if I could anyway), but with the Fed as accommodating as a White House Intern, it is hard to get bearish in this environment. Geez, now we've both jinxed it! Something smells like a surprise however. Do be careful with those stops. Frank Wolynski At 21:35 11/23/98 +0100, you wrote: >I don't want to spoil the party, but I'm going to be extra careful from >here on. > >Sentiment was already bullish and is getting very bullish now. Look at this >mailing list today... > >Personally I'm rubbing my hands, and that is one of the signs Ian Woodward >looks for when a market might be topping (short term). > >Just a warning to be careful. > >(Of course the market will go on to new highs form here, just to make me >look real stupid. I know. :) > > > >Johan > > > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #452 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.