From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #454 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, November 25 1998 Volume 02 : Number 454 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] CREE [CANSLIM] how many to follow [CANSLIM] what I use Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning Re: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage Re: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage [CANSLIM] non canslim [CANSLIM] Buying a little and carefully... [CANSLIM] Stocks picking. Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] [CANSLIM] deflation [CANSLIM] Re. VIX ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 12:43:09 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] <> Figuring that those who were so crazy about EBAY might at some point object to the valuation and turn their attention to ONSL, I bought some last week, CANSLIM or no CANSLIM. This morning, at the market open, I noticed that it was down one-eighth, which was OK. Still a few points above where I bought it. Then a half-hour later, it was up three-eighths. So I had breakfast and did some paperwork. When I checked again, it was up twenty points. When the feeling came back into my left arm and I was able to breathe without the aid of a respirator, I cleaned up my breakfast . . . - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 21:59:24 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] At 12:43 PM 24-11-98 -0800, you wrote: >Figuring that those who were so crazy about EBAY might at some point >object to the valuation and turn their attention to ONSL, I bought >some last week, CANSLIM or no CANSLIM. This morning, at the market >open, I noticed that it was down one-eighth, which was OK. Still a >few points above where I bought it. Then a half-hour later, it was up >three-eighths. So I had breakfast and did some paperwork. When I >checked again, it was up twenty points. > >When the feeling came back into my left arm and I was able to breathe >without the aid of a respirator, I cleaned up my breakfast . . . > >--Db LOL! Thx for sharing that. I must admit it also worries me a bit to see that even you, in my mind a CS/HGS-er, are buying some non-CS (?) stocks. Seriously though, congratulations! Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 22:14:59 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution day The NAZ closed down -11 on 4% higher volume than yesterday. That clearly is a distribution day. Breath and up/down vol both confirmed the distribution: Breath was negative: 1,788 advancers and 2,476 decliners. Up vol 410,144,864, down vol 513,534,944. Bullish sentiment reached to a multi-year high (Investors Intelligence data). On the positive side: The sell off occured pretty much near the close. Today was not a reversal day (too bad) where the open is the high and the low is the close. The high occured approx 2/3 into the trading day. We didn't break any short or medium term support. Only a 2 day intraday support area and a six day intraday trendline. So basically only a fool like me would consider going to 100% cash. And that is what I did near the close. FWIW. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 16:20:37 -0500 (EST) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day >So basically only a fool like me would consider going to 100% cash. And >that is what I did near the close. So Johan indicator is "sell." Watch out bulls. Johan, how can you go to 100% cash in one shot? Do you have a very few stocks, which you sell at the market? Just curious about how successful people do things. Regards, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 22:35:02 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day >Johan, how can you go to 100% cash in one shot? Do you have a very few >stocks, which you sell at the market? With an online broker you just prepare as many sell orders at market as you have stocks. You then presummit them all. Then you only have to push the 'confirm' button on each other and it is done. Nothing fancy, nothing spectacular. Keep in mind the above is about as pathetically daytrader minded as it gets (with these kind of low tech tools anyway). WON does not say you should sell everytime a distribution day comes along. You should look for a sequence of distribution days during a period of a few weeks. If you have that and also have very bullish sentiment, then it is time to starting looking at your laggards and consider cutting one or scaling the position down. If the market deteriorates further, and has a failed ralley then you cut another stock and so on. Of course the individual selling rules for stocks also apply. Alas I haven't mastered all of this, so you will have to ask a real master like Craig, and not a wannabe amateur like me, about how it is done precisely and artfully. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 16:45:49 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE Hi John, I didn't write the "tanks" part of that message. I haven't done any fundamental work on CREE what-so-ever. I did go over to quicken and read their last financial statement. I like what I read, the high intensity LEB (light emitting diode) would be a good thing. There was a note of caution in the report concerning sales growth, it did assume they could keep up the sales, thus earnings based on their aggressive price reductions. I did notice the funds were in at 40%. I would suggest calculating a forward PE based on earnings and estimates if I were considering the stock. I haven't read the briefing.com assessment. Regards, Frank Wolynski At 11:38 11/24/98 -0600, you wrote: >Hi Frank > I am a cnbc listner but I hope not a jerk Knee or otherwise. Isn't cree almost >a perfect Canslim stock. As or 11:30 cst it was above 39 and going. I bought >another thousand. If it tanks you will be right but if us knee Jerks are right >we will be smiling all the way to the bank. I predict a long and rapid ride. >That article in briefing.com seems to agree. >John Adair > >Frank V. Wolynski wrote: > >> At 10:26 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >> >I suspect that there are a lot of people who buy based on CNBC reports >> >buying while a lot of people who have ridden it up this far are selling >> >into the buying volume. We shall see who is wiser, but I suspect the >> >kneejerk CNBC buyers will get hurt unless they hold it more than a couple >> >of weeks (ie. my GUESS is that today marks a short term top). I will hold >> >since this is a small long term position. I may sell to protect profit if >> >it dips below 33. And it would not surprise me to see it test that area >> >(with all the CNBC kneejerk folks selling at a loss right back to the same >> >people who sold to them at 40). It happens. >> > >> >Then again, one never knows - this has been a powerful stock. It may sail >> >through and go on to 50 with barely a hiccup. Either way, I'm happy as >> >long as there is no serious testing of 33. >> > >> >At 08:59 AM 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >> >>Craig,, you might get some help with CREE, scheduled to be on CNBC this >> >>morning >> >> >> >> ,,, >> >> joe (o o) >> >>=oOO==(_)==OOo======== >> >> >> >> >> >> I don't intend this to influence you, but instead to add a bit of >> information to what you know about CREE. I work in an Industry that uses >> Silicon Carbide for semi-conductors. Television Broadcasting uses High >> Power Television Transmitters. The next generation of Television >> Transmitters for Digital ready broadcasts is largely being filled by solid >> state (semiconductor) high power devices. This is where Silicon Carbide >> comes in. I saw a Motorola demo at a convention a few years back showcasing >> the technology. It is impressive in a techno-nurdish way. >> >> Since I am the target of the Transmitter manufacturers sales techniques, I >> know they are pushing the solid state transmitters. They don't have to push >> hard however, the engineers working in the industry have long realized the >> advantages (and disadvantages) of solid state. These newer high power >> devices offer a bit more flexibility than earlier versions. They can now be >> retuned to a different channel, are less costly than their tube >> counterpart, although can't reach the power levels of the tube, and offer a >> good economical transition for Television Stations wondering how they will >> pay for the Digital transition. One of the Solid State transmitters runs >> typically $200k to $400k, while a tube transmitter will start nearer to >> $800k. >> >> I don't know if CREE's R&D and sales is directly linked to the television >> broadcast industry, but intend to find out. >> >> Does this make me bullish on the stock? Nope. It is a story, I don't buy >> them. It is however a "New" for the CS approach. That is to say Digital >> Television is an FCC mandated requirement for all 1800 TV stations in North >> America. It will start in May of 99 and ALL stations are required to have >> digital broadcasts on the air NLT November, 2003. That is "New", so is the >> Silicon Carbide technology. It holds alot of promise. >> >> Regards, >> Frank Wolynski >> >> - > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 16:06:06 -0600 (CST) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] how many to follow Dave, I go by the size of the industry group and the number of leaders in that group. If there are 4 additional leaders besides the stock I'm watching or trading, I'll watch them. If you're following 5 or 6 groups, you may want to cut the number of stocks in each group. How much time do you have? How many groups do you follow? At some point, you limit yourself, otherwise, as I did in the past, I was following so many, I missed most breakouts. Don't spread yourself too thin. Concentrate on a few so that it's manageable, you'll be more in control and less frantic. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 18:28:26 -0500 From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] what I use John, Thanks to all the wonderful greetings, I feel like i've been part of the group for years. I also use quotes plus.I have to agree - software use in trading is over rated. I use canslim primarily, with Martin Zweig's super model and John Murphy's intermarket technical analysis as more long term confirmers of the market. I try to keep it simple. I don't consider trading a really stressful profession. I think you will really appreciate why: whenever I start getting stressed out, I remember what an old economics professor of mine ( he was a broker during the 60's) used to say: " no matter how badly you screw up - at least no one dies." It's an old saying, but still one of the best. medicine - now there's a stressful job. I have a cousin that is a nurse at a retirement home - i couldn't do what she does for any amount of money. John Adair M.D. wrote: What equipment do you use for decision making.I suspect you must lead a stressful life trading all time. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 16:06:21 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] <> I consider EBAY, ONSL and PTVL to be Peter Lynch plays. I know them and think they're great. As far as AMZN, though, I still don't see what's so great. If everything were half-price, then we could talk. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 20:34:39 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning Frank, Is this conversion to digital transmission part of the HDTV process? Also, how durable are the solid state power devices compared to the old tube style? Are there other offsets (e.g. lower power requirements)? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 11:41 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning At 10:26 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >I suspect that there are a lot of people who buy based on CNBC reports >buying while a lot of people who have ridden it up this far are selling >into the buying volume. We shall see who is wiser, but I suspect the >kneejerk CNBC buyers will get hurt unless they hold it more than a couple >of weeks (ie. my GUESS is that today marks a short term top). I will hold >since this is a small long term position. I may sell to protect profit if >it dips below 33. And it would not surprise me to see it test that area >(with all the CNBC kneejerk folks selling at a loss right back to the same >people who sold to them at 40). It happens. > >Then again, one never knows - this has been a powerful stock. It may sail >through and go on to 50 with barely a hiccup. Either way, I'm happy as >long as there is no serious testing of 33. > >At 08:59 AM 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >>Craig,, you might get some help with CREE, scheduled to be on CNBC this >>morning >> >> ,,, >> joe (o o) >>=oOO==(_)==OOo======== >> >> I don't intend this to influence you, but instead to add a bit of information to what you know about CREE. I work in an Industry that uses Silicon Carbide for semi-conductors. Television Broadcasting uses High Power Television Transmitters. The next generation of Television Transmitters for Digital ready broadcasts is largely being filled by solid state (semiconductor) high power devices. This is where Silicon Carbide comes in. I saw a Motorola demo at a convention a few years back showcasing the technology. It is impressive in a techno-nurdish way. Since I am the target of the Transmitter manufacturers sales techniques, I know they are pushing the solid state transmitters. They don't have to push hard however, the engineers working in the industry have long realized the advantages (and disadvantages) of solid state. These newer high power devices offer a bit more flexibility than earlier versions. They can now be retuned to a different channel, are less costly than their tube counterpart, although can't reach the power levels of the tube, and offer a good economical transition for Television Stations wondering how they will pay for the Digital transition. One of the Solid State transmitters runs typically $200k to $400k, while a tube transmitter will start nearer to $800k. I don't know if CREE's R&D and sales is directly linked to the television broadcast industry, but intend to find out. Does this make me bullish on the stock? Nope. It is a story, I don't buy them. It is however a "New" for the CS approach. That is to say Digital Television is an FCC mandated requirement for all 1800 TV stations in North America. It will start in May of 99 and ALL stations are required to have digital broadcasts on the air NLT November, 2003. That is "New", so is the Silicon Carbide technology. It holds alot of promise. Regards, Frank Wolynski - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 20:30:30 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage Bill, I know of no reason to convert existing positions into cash unless you no longer want those stocks. Certainly, the transfer process does not require this, and you may want to evaluate the advice on converting an IRA into a ROTH from the new broker before taking this step. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Mypiason3@aol.com To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 10:16 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage I am also looking to convert my IRA into a ROTH. Would it be wiser to liquidate my positions before transfering accounts? Thanks Bill - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 21:03:36 -0500 From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage Transfers are made much quicker with cash instead of stocks. To avoid being out of the market during the transfer, you could do it in stages, perhaps one fourth of your account at a time, and still stay 75 percent invested and tradable. Al French Mypiason3@aol.com wrote: > > Hello, > > I am looking for another brokerage house. > > Would it be wiser to > liquidate my positions before transfering accounts? > > Thanks > > Bill > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 21:18:11 -0400 From: Joan Sherman Subject: [CANSLIM] non canslim Group, What are any of you planning on doing with your securities/brokerage accounts, et.al. in preparation of the Y2K ? If any of you care to have a discussion on another thread, please let me know. Happy Thanksgiving to you all. Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ and the gang ** ** ** ** ** Babe Lucky Buddy Clapton Courtney Support Animal Rescue - - ------------------------------ Date: 24 Nov 1998 23:50:36 -0300 From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Buying a little and carefully... I=B4ve bought a little of these stocks but just a little because i=B4m= waiting for better prices. =BFWhat do you think? NTKI, VTSS, EBAY, JKHY, MCSC (very little). Targeting: AEOS, CREE, CPWR. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - - ------------------------------ Date: 24 Nov 1998 23:50:19 -0300 From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks picking. >Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 09:28:43 -0500 >From: "Tom Worley" >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinion on my stock picks > >Hi Diego, > >No one can "choose" the right stocks for you better than you can. >However, some feedback on the ones you mention: Thank you very much, it=B4s true that no one will pick my stocks, but that kind of information helps a lot for a "new guy" like me in canlism. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 22:07:04 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Hello Johan, One day does not make distribution into a trend, esp where the mkt and sentiment is so inflated. Over the past two weeks this has once again turned into a big cap mkt, with some high flyers (internet stocks in particular) continuing to fly. We are primed for a correction, and frankly need it. Time to trim the sails, and bring some sanity back into play. I just heard tonight that a broker at my former firm bot some calls for himself on internet stocks, and turned about $1600 into $65,000 in less than two weeks. Just goes to show that even the mindless (and he is) can make money occasionally. It's just another indicator to me that the mkt is overvalued at present. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 4:15 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution day The NAZ closed down -11 on 4% higher volume than yesterday. That clearly is a distribution day. Breath and up/down vol both confirmed the distribution: Breath was negative: 1,788 advancers and 2,476 decliners. Up vol 410,144,864, down vol 513,534,944. Bullish sentiment reached to a multi-year high (Investors Intelligence data). On the positive side: The sell off occured pretty much near the close. Today was not a reversal day (too bad) where the open is the high and the low is the close. The high occured approx 2/3 into the trading day. We didn't break any short or medium term support. Only a 2 day intraday support area and a six day intraday trendline. So basically only a fool like me would consider going to 100% cash. And that is what I did near the close. FWIW. Johan - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 21:30:47 -0600 From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Tom Do you know how the holidays play into the market. I doubt there was nearly as many players today as monday and wont be as many the rest of the week. I know you are much closer to it than some of us. How does this figure into a distribution day. John Adair Tom Worley wrote: > Hello Johan, > > One day does not make distribution into a trend, esp where the mkt and > sentiment is so inflated. Over the past two weeks this has once again > turned into a big cap mkt, with some high flyers (internet stocks in > particular) continuing to fly. We are primed for a correction, and > frankly need it. Time to trim the sails, and bring some sanity back > into play. I just heard tonight that a broker at my former firm bot > some calls for himself on internet stocks, and turned about $1600 into > $65,000 in less than two weeks. Just goes to show that even the > mindless (and he is) can make money occasionally. It's just another > indicator to me that the mkt is overvalued at present. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 4:15 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution day > > The NAZ closed down -11 on 4% higher volume than yesterday. That > clearly is > a distribution day. > > Breath and up/down vol both confirmed the distribution: > > Breath was negative: 1,788 advancers and 2,476 decliners. > > Up vol 410,144,864, down vol 513,534,944. > > Bullish sentiment reached to a multi-year high (Investors Intelligence > data). > > On the positive side: The sell off occured pretty much near the close. > Today was not a reversal day (too bad) where the open is the high and > the > low is the close. The high occured approx 2/3 into the trading day. > > We didn't break any short or medium term support. Only a 2 day > intraday > support area and a six day intraday trendline. > > So basically only a fool like me would consider going to 100% cash. > And > that is what I did near the close. > > FWIW. > > Johan > > - > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 22:27:11 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage Partial transfers take longer than a normal ACAT delivery thru DTC as they must be done manually. A cash/margin account transfer should take 8-10 business days max from start to finish, add several additional days for an IRA or other type account as the transfer order must be physically delivered to the delivering firm (vice entered on the ACAT computer by the receiving firm). Because a partial transfer is done manually, it can often add a week or more to the normal process. Best bet however you do it is to stress to the receiving firm the need for speed, then stay on top of them, starting about the fifth or sixth day after they have the transfer order in hand. Insist (it's tough to demand) that they let you trade the account once they receive the mandatory inventory report from the delivering firm of what they will deliver. At that point the delivering firm is mandated to deliver the inventory they reported, thus the receiving firm knows what's coming to them. Your power (and influence) is with the receiving firm, you can do little with the delivering (losing) firm to speed their processing. If it's a cash or margin type account, you are well advised to extract any available cash balances before the transfer begins. It should only take a day or so to get the check, and you can then directly deposit it into the receiving account and use it. You can also short stocks to be delivered, if you can deposit the necessary equity, knowing that you will have the shares to deliver once the transfer is complete (don't let the broker talk you into a sell of the long position and a buy of the short position, tell him you want the two positions journaled together instead). Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Al French To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 9:04 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] looking for a quality brokerage Transfers are made much quicker with cash instead of stocks. To avoid being out of the market during the transfer, you could do it in stages, perhaps one fourth of your account at a time, and still stay 75 percent invested and tradable. Al French Mypiason3@aol.com wrote: > > Hello, > > I am looking for another brokerage house. > > Would it be wiser to > liquidate my positions before transfering accounts? > > Thanks > > Bill > > - - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 22:39:38 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day The Friday after T'giving is historically the lowest volume day of the year. Wednesday, the mkts (bond and stocks) usually closes early (around 1PM) either officially or effectively. By now, most of the week's business is done. Any kind of influence like this must also be considered in evaluating how one day appears. Tho we are today in far more of a global mkt than ever before, and this should also be considered, the US mkt remains a domestic mkt thus a domestic major holiday is still the primary influence. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: John Adair, M.D. To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 10:23 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Tom Do you know how the holidays play into the market. I doubt there was nearly as many players today as monday and wont be as many the rest of the week. I know you are much closer to it than some of us. How does this figure into a distribution day. John Adair Tom Worley wrote: > Hello Johan, > > One day does not make distribution into a trend, esp where the mkt and > sentiment is so inflated. Over the past two weeks this has once again > turned into a big cap mkt, with some high flyers (internet stocks in > particular) continuing to fly. We are primed for a correction, and > frankly need it. Time to trim the sails, and bring some sanity back > into play. I just heard tonight that a broker at my former firm bot > some calls for himself on internet stocks, and turned about $1600 into > $65,000 in less than two weeks. Just goes to show that even the > mindless (and he is) can make money occasionally. It's just another > indicator to me that the mkt is overvalued at present. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 4:15 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution day > > The NAZ closed down -11 on 4% higher volume than yesterday. That > clearly is > a distribution day. > > Breath and up/down vol both confirmed the distribution: > > Breath was negative: 1,788 advancers and 2,476 decliners. > > Up vol 410,144,864, down vol 513,534,944. > > Bullish sentiment reached to a multi-year high (Investors Intelligence > data). > > On the positive side: The sell off occured pretty much near the close. > Today was not a reversal day (too bad) where the open is the high and > the > low is the close. The high occured approx 2/3 into the trading day. > > We didn't break any short or medium term support. Only a 2 day > intraday > support area and a six day intraday trendline. > > So basically only a fool like me would consider going to 100% cash. > And > that is what I did near the close. > > FWIW. > > Johan > > - > > - - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 19:45:01 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day I read today as people closing out their positions before taking tomorrow and Friday off. I expect to see more selling tomorrow. Interesting tht my portfolio held exactly even today; I take that as a small sign of strength among CANSLIM and near-CANSLIM stocks. At 10:39 PM 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >The Friday after T'giving is historically the lowest volume day of the >year. Wednesday, the mkts (bond and stocks) usually closes early >(around 1PM) either officially or effectively. By now, most of the >week's business is done. > >Any kind of influence like this must also be considered in evaluating >how one day appears. Tho we are today in far more of a global mkt >than ever before, and this should also be considered, the US mkt >remains a domestic mkt thus a domestic major holiday is still the >primary influence. > >Tom W > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 01:05:33 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning At 20:34 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >Frank, > >Is this conversion to digital transmission part of the HDTV process? >Also, how durable are the solid state power devices compared to the >old tube style? Are there other offsets (e.g. lower power >requirements)? > >Tom W > Digital Transmission will allow High Definition (HDTV) as one of many transmitted formats. SDTV (standard definition) multichannel is another offshoot that is possible with the conversion to digital. Durability is high enough that it is an advantage. A 1 kilowatt solid state amplifier runs approximately $800 to repair. A replacement Klystron or IOT tube for UHF service costs $70,000. They have to be replaced roughly every 3 years. That will repair alot of solid state amplifiers, however that hasn't been necessary. I've been running a 60kwatt Low Band VHF solid state transmitter for 9 1/2 years and we average less than $5,000 annually for transmitter repairs. Compared to a 30kwatt tube 10 years ago that averaged $20,000 annually, this is quite a savings. Actually the solid states are a bit less efficient than the tube. The difference is one of 25% versus 30% efficiency, so the electricity savings are minimal. The real advantage is cost of repair, reliability (nonloss of On-Air time) and MTBF (mean time before failure) actualities. The advantage of the tube is that with relatively inexpensive combining techniques multiple 60kw transmitters can be added together to boost the output power to the 5 million UHF watts analog and 1 million watts digital of UHF output power that is needed in some cases and desired in others. It is generally felt that during the first few years of the transition, there will be few viewers. Therefore for some stations (quite a few actually) the lower cost, lower maintenance solid state will be the way to go. Until the bugs are shaken out of the initial phases anyway. Higher power would come later when needed. Regards, Frank Wolynski (P.S. By the way CREE does not manufacture these devices. They are into a different area of electronic parts.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 07:06:56 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning Thanks for the education, Frank. Are there any public companies that will likely gain from the growth of manufacturing during this transition?? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, November 25, 1998 1:07 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning At 20:34 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >Frank, > >Is this conversion to digital transmission part of the HDTV process? >Also, how durable are the solid state power devices compared to the >old tube style? Are there other offsets (e.g. lower power >requirements)? > >Tom W > Digital Transmission will allow High Definition (HDTV) as one of many transmitted formats. SDTV (standard definition) multichannel is another offshoot that is possible with the conversion to digital. Durability is high enough that it is an advantage. A 1 kilowatt solid state amplifier runs approximately $800 to repair. A replacement Klystron or IOT tube for UHF service costs $70,000. They have to be replaced roughly every 3 years. That will repair alot of solid state amplifiers, however that hasn't been necessary. I've been running a 60kwatt Low Band VHF solid state transmitter for 9 1/2 years and we average less than $5,000 annually for transmitter repairs. Compared to a 30kwatt tube 10 years ago that averaged $20,000 annually, this is quite a savings. Actually the solid states are a bit less efficient than the tube. The difference is one of 25% versus 30% efficiency, so the electricity savings are minimal. The real advantage is cost of repair, reliability (nonloss of On-Air time) and MTBF (mean time before failure) actualities. The advantage of the tube is that with relatively inexpensive combining techniques multiple 60kw transmitters can be added together to boost the output power to the 5 million UHF watts analog and 1 million watts digital of UHF output power that is needed in some cases and desired in others. It is generally felt that during the first few years of the transition, there will be few viewers. Therefore for some stations (quite a few actually) the lower cost, lower maintenance solid state will be the way to go. Until the bugs are shaken out of the initial phases anyway. Higher power would come later when needed. Regards, Frank Wolynski (P.S. By the way CREE does not manufacture these devices. They are into a different area of electronic parts.) - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 05:47:25 -0800 (PST) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Historically, trading days before holidays yield some of the best gains on Wall Street. This is true for Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, July 4, Memorial Day. This data is kind of old from Martin Zweig's Winning on Wall Street. If you want the specifics, I can dig them up. Ciao, Riolatzi - ---"John Adair, M.D." wrote: > > Tom > Do you know how the holidays play into the market. I doubt there was > nearly as many players today as monday and wont be as many the rest of the > week. I know you are much closer to it than some of us. How does this > figure into a distribution day. > John Adair > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Hello Johan, > > > > One day does not make distribution into a trend, esp where the mkt and > > sentiment is so inflated. Over the past two weeks this has once again > > turned into a big cap mkt, with some high flyers (internet stocks in > > particular) continuing to fly. We are primed for a correction, and > > frankly need it. Time to trim the sails, and bring some sanity back > > into play. I just heard tonight that a broker at my former firm bot > > some calls for himself on internet stocks, and turned about $1600 into > > $65,000 in less than two weeks. Just goes to show that even the > > mindless (and he is) can make money occasionally. It's just another > > indicator to me that the mkt is overvalued at present. > > > > Tom W > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Johan Van Houtven > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 4:15 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution day > > > > The NAZ closed down -11 on 4% higher volume than yesterday. That > > clearly is > > a distribution day. > > > > Breath and up/down vol both confirmed the distribution: > > > > Breath was negative: 1,788 advancers and 2,476 decliners. > > > > Up vol 410,144,864, down vol 513,534,944. > > > > Bullish sentiment reached to a multi-year high (Investors Intelligence > > data). > > > > On the positive side: The sell off occured pretty much near the close. > > Today was not a reversal day (too bad) where the open is the high and > > the > > low is the close. The high occured approx 2/3 into the trading day. > > > > We didn't break any short or medium term support. Only a 2 day > > intraday > > support area and a six day intraday trendline. > > > > So basically only a fool like me would consider going to 100% cash. > > And > > that is what I did near the close. > > > > FWIW. > > > > Johan > > > > - > > > > - > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 09:26:41 -0500 From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/[NONCANSLIM--ONSL] >I consider EBAY, ONSL and PTVL to be Peter Lynch plays. I know them >and think they're great. As far as AMZN, though, I still don't see >what's so great. If everything were half-price, then we could talk. > >--Db So if the stock were to split you'd buy it? :) [that's a joke] - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 09:46:12 -0500 From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] deflation Something to watch Has the threat of deflation abated ? Look at the figures: the crb is about to test a key low around 200. If it breaks that decisively, it will be setting a six year low. Gold is around 295 an oz. down 30 % from its most recent high around 410. many ' experts ' say gold should be around 325. Stocks have never gone up during deflation. Just something to keep an eye on. Dave - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 09:57:47 EST From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. VIX Group: IBD has an interesting article today on VIX. I know Tom and some others follow it in BigCharts, and WON seems to be recommending its usefulness at market turns. Anyway, you VIX aficionados, here it is for your perusal. jans : Get that eerie feeling when looking at the stock market? It's hard to imagine that stocks have rebounded so far so fast, when just 10 weeks ago financial markets worldwide were teetering on the edge of a major sell-off. The Volatility index (symbol VIX), calculated by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, tells an even more intriguing story. The VIX tracks the implied volatility on the S&P 100, an index of a hundred big blue chips. The higher the implied volatility, the more expensive the options on the S&P 100. I N V E S T O R ' S C O R N E R At the end of August - the day the stock market fell more than 500 points - - the VIX index closed at 54%, more than double its 200-day moving average of 26%. That level told us traders felt the risk in the market was twice normal levels. The VIX actually spiked above 60% on Oct. 8, the day the Dow Jones industrial average traded as low as 7399. The market rallied 332 points in the last hour to close at 7731.91, just a little less than 10 points below the previous day's close. The reversal marked a bottom that set the stage for the ensuing rally. Almost seven weeks later and 1,600 Dow points higher, the VIX is around 22%, which is well below its 200-day moving average. What happened to all that anxiety? Are we to believe there's no longer any risk in the market? The last time the VIX hit such low levels was during the first two weeks of July - when the Dow was last setting record highs. Look at a one-year chart on the VIX and you see a two-week bottom during the first half of July just before the bull started to stumble. What the VIX is telling us - aside from investor sentiment - is that index options are relatively cheap. Nervous investors who want to hedge their bets might consider buying index puts. Or more specifically, slightly out-of- the-money December 1999 S&P 500 put LEAPs. At least the price is right. Aggressive short-term traders might also find the VIX useful as a timing tool when implementing index option trades. Look for a bottoming pattern similar to the one seen in early July. That may offer an opportunity to enter a short-term trade, say buying short- term out-of-the-money S&P 100 puts. For aggressive investors who think the U.S. market may be ahead of itself, the ideal situation would see the Dow set another new high just as the VIX was setting new lows. These two chart patterns going in opposite directions provide a powerful combination for short-term investors. The Pre-January Effect Many traders at this time of year set up positions to profit from the so- called January effect. Large-cap stocks typically outperform small caps from mid-November through December. The explanations vary, but many think it's the result of profit or loss taking in small caps. But the tables turn with the new year. In the first weeks of January, investors often plow back into small caps. The track record for this anomaly has been impressive, according to Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis Corp. (www.optionstrategist.com). In recent years, McMillan concedes he's made more money trading the pre-January effect than the actual January effect. It's less well known, he says. ''And therefore doesn't get distorted by too many people trying to trade it.'' The question is whether the sharp sell-off in late August to early October dampens the prospects for any strategy that purports to take advantage of the pre-January effect. There is no definitive answer, although McMillan points out that ''severe declines in 1987, 1990 and 1997 did not harm the pre- January effect strategy.'' The strategy is an index futures spread between the mini-S&P futures and the mini-Value Line futures. The S&P index represents the large-cap sector. The Value Line composite index, because of the way it's calculated, gives much greater weight to the small-cap sector. The pre-January strategy is relatively straightforward: Buy the mini-S&P futures and sell the mini-Value Line futures. McMillan suggests ''mini'' contracts to reduce the risk. Each one-point move in the mini-S&P futures is worth $50, and each one-point move in the mini-Value Line futures is worth $100. Because of the 2-to-1 disparity between the contracts, a neutral position requires two mini-S&P futures for every one mini-Value Line futures. McMillan suggests buying four mini-S&P futures and selling two mini-Value Line futures. Using the 4-to-2 ratio, the risk is $200 per point. ''The spread itself is not as volatile as the individual underlying contracts, but it can still move by large distances,'' he said. A stop loss is important, and traders should risk no more than 15 points ($3,000 in a 4-to-2 trade). For investors who want to trade the January effect, consider doing the reverse trade at the end of December: Sell four mini- S&P futures and buy two mini-Value Line futures. Again, with the same risk constraints, use a stop loss if the position moves against you by 15 points. //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (11/25/98) Options Get Cheaper As Market Surges By Richard N. Croft 11/24/98 20:29 - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #454 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.