From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #455 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, November 26 1998 Volume 02 : Number 455 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. VIX [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) [CANSLIM] Distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) [CANSLIM] CREE on CNBC this morning [CANSLIM] JKHY [CANSLIM] Thanks Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) Now PTVL Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning - MSFT [CANSLIM] Selling and buying... [CANSLIM] ACC/Dis Numbers Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) Now PTVL Re: [CANSLIM] non canslim ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 08:00:40 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. VIX If anyone's interested, there's a post at the HGS board-"Weekly VIX Timing System"--that includes a chart overlaying the SPX and VIX and showing an inverse relationship. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 11:04:57 -0600 (CST) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) Db, Good to hear about a few successes once in while. You have a feel for the market, that's for sure, if you sensed ONSL would attract those who thought EBAY was overvalued. Never considered that possibility. Congratulations. Hold on to that profit. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 11:13:09 -0600 (CST) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) Johan, Investing in the market is a risk whether you're a CS/HGS-er or not. I wouldn't be at all surprised if many, many of us leaped a bit more that CANSLIM recommends to take advantage of the market's ride up. That includes O'Neil and Woodard. At least Db knows what he's doing, covers himself with stops, reads and interprets the chart, etc. Better him than someone who is inexperienced, wild eyed and frenzied. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 09:15:39 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) <> I'm trying, though with every extra ten points to the upside, I find that I have to go lie down for a while. PTVL isn't doing too shabby, either. And it's still buyable (I bought more when it bounced off its 50d yesterday). Anyone who's used its service know why I like it. People still can't believe how little I paid to get to Disney World last Christmas. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 11:15:17 -0600 (CST) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution day Johan, Fools are not cautious. You may have the last laugh. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 09:41:38 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) <> Cramer just did a piece on this. It begins: "The action in the Net stocks this month seems to make a mockery of two long-held notions in investing: You make your biggest money long term and discipline is your friend not your enemy. None of us, particularly those of us who have traded and invested for a couple of decades, wants to believe that the rules that we have lived by are now out-of-date. The fascination that the Net holds and the tremendous price gains these stocks have achieved have rocked many of us to our core. We can't believe that our accepted three- and four-yard off-tackle run plays have been left in a cloud of dust by the invention of the forward pass." It's a good piece. The rest of it is at > http://fnews.yahoo.com/street/98/11/25/wrong_981125.html - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 12:49:25 -0600 (CST) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CREE on CNBC this morning Frank, Thanks for the explanation. It helps. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 19:07:52 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] JKHY This stock has been mentioned a few times so I decided to research it. From a WON standpoint it's close to perfect, 99 96 AAB. I did the fundamentals much like db suggests. However I used E-Trade's research which is call Baseline. It covers the earnings, ROE etc. It is actually pretty good. I also checked it on Stocksite (or whatever its called) and the forward earnings on YAHOO. I am not sure how to calculate the forward PE etc their numbers looked good. The next step was the cart. I thought it was a very short CWH actually a FWH. The handle was good and the breakout is taking place. I thought the perfect time would have been around 50. It is almost 53 now which is about 5% above so it appears still to be time. I also checked the industry grouping. I went with the YAHOO groups there were 27 in the group. YAHOO said JHKY was 13, but not by CANSLIM criteria. KRON a pretty close second. There were two others that did not quite get close. The rest were washed out for all sorts of reasons. So my conclusion is EPS good, ROE good, Industry group #8 in IBD, as near as I can tell. Good chart so it should be a buy, at least for me it may be. Any comments or suggestions would be welcome. I hate the name. Personally I was hoping KRON would win, I liked the name better. Charlie - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 19:21:39 -0600 (CST) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Thanks Everyone, This is my poor attempt at poetry, but the appreciation for your patience, time and education are genuine. Thanks for everything, including my losses because they've taught me more in the fastest manner possible. CASLIM - a message board Where young and old Interesting and bored Meek and bold Meet to share opinions On members' dominions Hoping to make money Without losing their honey It isn't easy When the market is busy Moving our stocks In a way that mocks Our intelligence And patience. Happy Thanksgiving Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 20:39:38 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning One would think the transmitter manufacturers, Acrodyne, Emcee, Harris, since every TV station has to buy a new transmitter during the next 4 years. Normal life for a TV transmitter is 15 - 20 years. Sony, and many others will also have new equipment for the wide screen digital format. I see bursts of profits for many companies, but sustained earnings growth is hard to grasp at this point. Much is yet to be developed. There are a limited number of TV stations having to convert, 1800 or so. The one area I think the biggest developments and profits to be made will be in consumer display technology. If you want to take advantage of the digital conversion, this makes more sense. Conventional CRT's are limited due to the physics of bending an electron beam with magnetic coils. The largest size CRT is approximately 52 inches. It weighs over 500 pounds. The largest 16x9 High Definition (wide screen) display I've seen is 42 inches and it weighed 350 pounds and costs $20,000.00. Fujitsu has developed the flat plasma display and perfected a high definition version of it. It currently sells for $25,000. Their baby brothers are seen on the floor of the exchanges hanging from the ceiling. Those are small flat panel plasma displays. A privately held british firm called Cambridge Technology has developed a thin flexible plastic light emitting panel. The one I saw was only a few inches across, but it was successful in displaying full motion video. I suppose we are only a few years away from having our displays hung on the wall like a picture and it weighs only a few pounds. Whoever has the patents will be rich. There are at least two TVs in every home in the US. If they want to receive the new DTV signals, they'll have to be replaced. Technology has been the sector to be invested in for the last 10years. It will be for at least another 10 or at least as far as I can see. One of the reasons I am interested in CREE is my search for the most likely candidates to develope the display technology that will replace the CRT. Their work in high power Silicon Carbide has me very interested. Now that they are able to produce high luminance Blue (long the nemesis of the LED manufacturers), we have the third and final color that is used for video displays. Red and Green being the other two. All colors in your TV picture are generated from various combinations of different levels of Red, Green and Blue. Even White is generated from equal levels of Red, Green and Blue. Maybe you can understand why Blue LEDs are as important as they are now. Regards, Frank Wolynski At 07:06 11/25/98 -0500, you wrote: >Thanks for the education, Frank. Are there any public companies that >will likely gain from the growth of manufacturing during this >transition?? > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, November 25, 1998 1:07 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning > > >At 20:34 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >>Frank, >> >>Is this conversion to digital transmission part of the HDTV process? >>Also, how durable are the solid state power devices compared to the >>old tube style? Are there other offsets (e.g. lower power >>requirements)? >> >>Tom W >> > >Digital Transmission will allow High Definition (HDTV) as one of many >transmitted formats. SDTV (standard definition) multichannel is >another >offshoot that is possible with the conversion to digital. > >Durability is high enough that it is an advantage. A 1 kilowatt solid >state >amplifier runs approximately $800 to repair. A replacement Klystron or >IOT >tube for UHF service costs $70,000. They have to be replaced roughly >every >3 years. That will repair alot of solid state amplifiers, however that >hasn't been necessary. I've been running a 60kwatt Low Band VHF solid >state >transmitter for 9 1/2 years and we average less than $5,000 annually >for >transmitter repairs. Compared to a 30kwatt tube 10 years ago that >averaged >$20,000 annually, this is quite a savings. > >Actually the solid states are a bit less efficient than the tube. The >difference is one of 25% versus 30% efficiency, so the electricity >savings >are minimal. The real advantage is cost of repair, reliability >(nonloss of >On-Air time) and MTBF (mean time before failure) actualities. > >The advantage of the tube is that with relatively inexpensive >combining >techniques multiple 60kw transmitters can be added together to boost >the >output power to the 5 million UHF watts analog and 1 million watts >digital >of UHF output power that is needed in some cases and desired in >others. > >It is generally felt that during the first few years of the >transition, >there will be few viewers. Therefore for some stations (quite a few >actually) the lower cost, lower maintenance solid state will be the >way to >go. Until the bugs are shaken out of the initial phases anyway. Higher >power would come later when needed. > >Regards, >Frank Wolynski >(P.S. By the way CREE does not manufacture these devices. They are >into a >different area of electronic parts.) > > >- > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 18:13:14 PST From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) Now PTVL Db, PTVL and ATHM are the only two internet plays I have. There was a huge sell off yesterday (close to 5 Million shares). I was going to liquidate my position but decided to take the risk at the close. What would you do when you see that kind of volume down ? Thanks > >Mary>> > >I'm trying, though with every extra ten points to the upside, I find >that I have to go lie down for a while. > >PTVL isn't doing too shabby, either. And it's still buyable (I bought >more when it bounced off its 50d yesterday). Anyone who's used its >service know why I like it. People still can't believe how little I >paid to get to Disney World last Christmas. > >--Db > >== > >"Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > >http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Nov 1998 19:04:47 PST From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning - MSFT Great post Frank! THANKS! Now let me try to give a few techie details about one other stock I like now. Microsoft just announced SQL Server 7.0 and is mainly aiming at the ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) market. With Windows NT 5.0 ...oops! Windows 2000 in the pipeline, these two combination will generate tremendous interest in the small and medium ERP market place. Plus I think MSFT is the safest internet stock. MSFT broke out of a long base with considerable volume. Support a tad below 120. Most CANSLIMers don't like its size. S Menon >One would think the transmitter manufacturers, Acrodyne, Emcee, Harris, >since every TV station has to buy a new transmitter during the next 4 >years. Normal life for a TV transmitter is 15 - 20 years. Sony, and many >others will also have new equipment for the wide screen digital format. > >I see bursts of profits for many companies, but sustained earnings growth >is hard to grasp at this point. Much is yet to be developed. There are a >limited number of TV stations having to convert, 1800 or so. > >The one area I think the biggest developments and profits to be made will >be in consumer display technology. If you want to take advantage of the >digital conversion, this makes more sense. Conventional CRT's are limited >due to the physics of bending an electron beam with magnetic coils. The >largest size CRT is approximately 52 inches. It weighs over 500 pounds. The >largest 16x9 High Definition (wide screen) display I've seen is 42 inches >and it weighed 350 pounds and costs $20,000.00. Fujitsu has developed the >flat plasma display and perfected a high definition version of it. It >currently sells for $25,000. Their baby brothers are seen on the floor of >the exchanges hanging from the ceiling. Those are small flat panel plasma >displays. > >A privately held british firm called Cambridge Technology has developed a >thin flexible plastic light emitting panel. The one I saw was only a few >inches across, but it was successful in displaying full motion video. I >suppose we are only a few years away from having our displays hung on the >wall like a picture and it weighs only a few pounds. Whoever has the >patents will be rich. There are at least two TVs in every home in the US. >If they want to receive the new DTV signals, they'll have to be replaced. > >Technology has been the sector to be invested in for the last 10years. It >will be for at least another 10 or at least as far as I can see. > >One of the reasons I am interested in CREE is my search for the most likely >candidates to develope the display technology that will replace the CRT. >Their work in high power Silicon Carbide has me very interested. Now that >they are able to produce high luminance Blue (long the nemesis of the LED >manufacturers), we have the third and final color that is used for video >displays. Red and Green being the other two. All colors in your TV picture >are generated from various combinations of different levels of Red, Green >and Blue. Even White is generated from equal levels of Red, Green and Blue. > >Maybe you can understand why Blue LEDs are as important as they are now. > >Regards, >Frank Wolynski > > >At 07:06 11/25/98 -0500, you wrote: >>Thanks for the education, Frank. Are there any public companies that >>will likely gain from the growth of manufacturing during this >>transition?? >> >>Tom W >> >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Frank V. Wolynski >>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>Date: Wednesday, November 25, 1998 1:07 AM >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE on cnbc this morning >> >> >>At 20:34 11/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >>>Frank, >>> >>>Is this conversion to digital transmission part of the HDTV process? >>>Also, how durable are the solid state power devices compared to the >>>old tube style? Are there other offsets (e.g. lower power >>>requirements)? >>> >>>Tom W >>> >> >>Digital Transmission will allow High Definition (HDTV) as one of many >>transmitted formats. SDTV (standard definition) multichannel is >>another >>offshoot that is possible with the conversion to digital. >> >>Durability is high enough that it is an advantage. A 1 kilowatt solid >>state >>amplifier runs approximately $800 to repair. A replacement Klystron or >>IOT >>tube for UHF service costs $70,000. They have to be replaced roughly >>every >>3 years. That will repair alot of solid state amplifiers, however that >>hasn't been necessary. I've been running a 60kwatt Low Band VHF solid >>state >>transmitter for 9 1/2 years and we average less than $5,000 annually >>for >>transmitter repairs. Compared to a 30kwatt tube 10 years ago that >>averaged >>$20,000 annually, this is quite a savings. >> >>Actually the solid states are a bit less efficient than the tube. The >>difference is one of 25% versus 30% efficiency, so the electricity >>savings >>are minimal. The real advantage is cost of repair, reliability >>(nonloss of >>On-Air time) and MTBF (mean time before failure) actualities. >> >>The advantage of the tube is that with relatively inexpensive >>combining >>techniques multiple 60kw transmitters can be added together to boost >>the >>output power to the 5 million UHF watts analog and 1 million watts >>digital >>of UHF output power that is needed in some cases and desired in >>others. >> >>It is generally felt that during the first few years of the >>transition, >>there will be few viewers. Therefore for some stations (quite a few >>actually) the lower cost, lower maintenance solid state will be the >>way to >>go. Until the bugs are shaken out of the initial phases anyway. Higher >>power would come later when needed. >> >>Regards, >>Frank Wolynski >>(P.S. By the way CREE does not manufacture these devices. They are >>into a >>different area of electronic parts.) >> >> >>- >> >> >> >>- >> >> > >- > > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 26 Nov 1998 10:06:01 -0300 From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Selling and buying... I=B4ve been making my first moves on the market and i want some advice if= i=B4m going right. I think a selling will take place in the next week or maybe starting at the end of this week, but i=B4m holding some positions because i don=B4t like to be 100% out of the market.=20 I=B4ve taken some profits on NTKI, EBAY, and got out straight on MCSC (i didn=B4t like it), but have bought some CREE and AEOS. Maybe i=B4ll buy some ONSL tomorrow, but trying to keep a low portfolio. ADVICES ARE WELCOME, PLEASE. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 26 Nov 1998 09:39:52 EST From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ACC/Dis Numbers Here are the latest Acc/Dis numbers: Happy Thanksgiving to all date A B C D E a+b/a-e %e 11/17/98 1220 3096 1342 810 283 64% 4% 11/18/98 1226 3075 1329 828 276 64% 4% 11/19/98 1212 3083 1318 833 283 64% 4% 11/20/98 1222 3092 1321 806 281 64% 4% 11/23/98 1282 3064 1330 769 282 65% 4% 11/24/98 1329 3082 1286 768 271 65% 4% 11/25/98 1381 3089 1227 770 258 66% 4% Spreadsheet numbers date,A,B,C,D,E,a+b/a-e,%e, ,,,,,,62-75%,<4%,Ideal Range 11/17/98,1220,3096,1342,810,283,64%,4% 11/18/98,1226,3075,1329,828,276,64%,4% 11/19/98,1212,3083,1318,833,283,64%,4% 11/20/98,1222,3092,1321,806,281,64%,4% 11/23/98,1282,3064,1330,769,282,65%,4% 11/24/98,1329,3082,1286,768,271,65%,4% 11/25/98,1381,3089,1227,770,258,66%,4% Robert - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 26 Nov 1998 07:32:17 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE/(NONCANSLIM--ONSL) Now PTVL <> Depends on where I bought. I got both ONSL and PTVL at the right price, so there's no special reason for me to get out. Even though most of these stocks are technically not CS stocks, one can (IMO must) use the same principles (without the earnings part), the same discipline, the same knowledge of chart patterns, etc. to buy them. This puts you into the better of the bunch and keeps you out of the stocks that can really burn your bu** (lessons some of you may have learned during the biotech, restaurant, specialty retail, or casino crazes). What distinguishes these stocks is volatility, but that isn't going to change anytime soon. This is all very new. The web itself is only a few years old. AOL, AMZN, YHOO are younger than that. The e-tailers are even younger than that. And so on. In the overall scheme of things, even MSFT is relatively new. Therefore, the discipline becomes even more important, especially the part about what it is exactly that the company does, how it does it, how well it does it, how much better it does it than anybody else. E-tailers in particular have a lot to learn about customer service. Yesterday I sent a query to the customer service department of a software e-tailer and asked which of their webpage software packages had a certain feature. The relatively quick response I got said that I'd have to call the companies manufacturing the software because the e-tailer was carrying too many products to know them all. Bzzzzt! Wrong answer. If I were to go into a real store and ask the same question, I'd get a selection to choose from with a description of what each could do. I would not be told that I'd have to go home and call each of the manufacturers. Each of us knows more about e-tailing and software than almost any business trying to establish a presence on the net. We're the ones who spend our days and nights surfing the net, doing research, reading this, posting that. We know what irritates us, such as pages that take forever to load because some idiot designer got too cute, or pages that give you no clue as to what's hot so that you have to click everywhere almost at random just to figure out where you're supposed to go to get whatever it is you're trying to get or pages that lead you off into long strings of "next"s without any egress other than the Back button on the browser. At least part of the reason why AOL and AMZN have done so well is that they designed their sites properly. They know what task analysis is all about and how to take somebody by the hand at point 0 and lead them along step by tiny step. So many of these places leave you staring at the screen wondering what to do next. Differentiate between the two and you'll have a better idea of what to buy. This is why I said that PTVL was a Peter Lynch stock for me. I've used it, I like it, I think it has a lot going for it. How many of us have bought MSPG or ELNK without actually using them? How many of us have actually explored each of the portals and portal wannabes to see how they compare with each other? It's possible for even the risk-averse to participate if they have a money management strategy in place. If one is holding a rocket, one might sell a much as he needs to to get his money back, then let the rest ride. Or take profits 20% at a time until he's got his money back. Or 30% or 50%. Doesn't matter. Whatever the plan is. If one has the stomach for it, he might just let the whole thing ride without taking any profits at all, though I personally think this is a bit foolhardy. Trading these stocks is an option, though if one doesn't have RT streaming quotes and intraday charting software, he may find it intolerably difficult to do so. Another strategy I read about somewhere involved selling percentage A when the stock had appreciated percentage B, then buying back percentage C when the stock pulled back percentage D (stops notwithstanding). It was too involved for me, but it might be just the ticket for those who have no tolerance for risk at all. There is an element of rationality that has to take hold at some point, but knowing when and where that is is probably a matter of experience more than anything else, and even that may not be enough. I would have sold EBAY when it was downgraded at $130 for being overvalued and fell to $110 or whatever. And a couple of days ago it was $230 a share. If I had held on, would I sell it now? In a second. Greater fool theory or no greater fool theory, I know a tulip when I see one. Usually. The discipline required to repress piggish qualities may be more than most people can achieve, but I have a feeling that we better start working on it if we haven't already, because the next few years are going to present many opportunities such as these. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 26 Nov 1998 09:32:25 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] non canslim Date sent: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 21:18:11 -0400 To: Canslim > What are any of you planning on doing with your securities/brokerage > accounts, et.al. in preparation > of the Y2K ? If any of you care to have a discussion on another thread, > please let me know. Oddly enough, my job the last couple of months has been testing for any y2k bugs in our software. None found. We think the problem is probably a bit overblown. The world won't end on Jan1, 2000, there will probably be some hiccups somewhere, but I don't think you need to worry about it. This week's Newsweek (piece of broccoli on the cover) has an article about a kook, errr, programmer who is preparing for the end of civilization when the millenium changes, if you want to read another perspective. - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #455 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.