From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #584 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, April 20 1999 Volume 02 : Number 584 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Re: [CANSLIM] Welcome to the "New guy" Chris [CANSLIM] Thoughts [CANSLIM] Thoughts Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? RE: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs [CANSLIM] "M", cyclicals, rotation, correction, etc. Re: [CANSLIM] New guy [CANSLIM] NAV and MAR [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Re: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits Re: [CANSLIM] NAV and MAR [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - April 16, 1999 - Condensed Version Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? [CANSLIM] "Model Portfolio" ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 15:46:11 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Looks like a correction in the NASDAQ and tech stocks to me. The NASDAQ move out of the recent base looks like "wedging" possibly. Leaders like MSFT and SUNW that broke out lately have collapsed back into their base - bad sign. Rotation? Vicious moving into the cyclicals and maybe oils. The old leadership is looking really sick. Looking for new leadership. Doesn't look like a Canslim'r market. Distribution on the NAS on 04/07, 04/12, 04/13, 04/14 and 04/15 was pretty impressive. Advance/declines and new highs/lows looking better and better weirdly enough - maybe another sign of rotation (?). Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay the piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up 14%. This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the rest are technology related. People are going to be shaken a bit after today. Will take a while to rebuild confidence. People will be shifing to value and bonds IMO. Warning, there is an awful lot of opinion in the above paragraph and I am frequently wrong when expressing opinion. The distribution on the chart, the collapse of the leaders, the A/D line and new highs/new lows are facts. Cyclical stocks breaking out over the last 3 weeks is also fact. As is climactic activity in several NAS leaders. Best Regards, Craig At 03:02 PM 4/19/99 -0700, you wrote: >I've missed some of the discussion on M. > >But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% on >heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. > >Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. > >Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of junk, >except for some good oil co's. > >Opinions? > >Peter Newell > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 15:42:28 -0700 From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Welcome to the "New guy" Chris Chris, Welcome. Looks like a reread of the chapter that says something like "A word to the wise, I bet the market's been soaring straight up lately. This may not be a great time to try canslim. Wait for the correction to end before trying these techniques". May be in order. Anyhow, most of the people that are left on this list have pretty good advice. Hope it helps. Happy hunting, Peter Newell - -----Original Message----- From: Chris Hudson To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Monday, April 19, 1999 12:34 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] New guy >Hello. My name is Chris Hudson and I just subscribed to the list. I am >currently reading O'Neil's book "How to Make Money In Stocks" and so I >thought this group would be interesting to subscribe to. I also recently >read "How I Made $2 Million In The Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas and liked >it very much. >I look forward to some intersting discussions. > -- Chris > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 21:11:26 +0100 From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts This correction and sell off may be real, but it also indicates to me rotation in leadership. I've only been following for 6 months, but it's clear to me you have to follow the movement in industry sectors, keep raising your stops to protect profits, and sell losers quickly to make money. Take ASTE for example - up between 4 and 5 (at time of message) from 35 and Ford (up still?), maybe down now, but was up on big volume earlier. I didn't mention ASTE in earlier email because I didn't (couldn't) believe that the best stocks would be priced down! ASTE EPS 80 RS 94 SMR A A/D A GROUP PERFORMANCE (MACHINERY-CONST/MINING) 3 months ago > 100, 2 months ago >100, 1 month ago, > 100, 2 weeks ago 121, last week 74 Industry group RS 63 Check its chart out (weekly for 1 year). Last week up on heavy volume! Check Maytag (MYG) also up (stock up on bad day!) and PLCE Watch what happened to NITE today! It blew off last week indicating a sell (as per guidance from the HTMMIS). We have to stick to the rules. Maybe I'm naive, but for us to be successful, we must try and act on all the CANSLIM approaches and contribute what we know to the whole group. So please do contribute ideas about stock group rotation and individual stock leadership. Who's following what the mutual funds are buying - does anyone know a website we can find out from? Check these groups that have moved up! SHOES & REL APPAREL BANKS-MONEY CENTER LEISURE-HOTELS & MOTELS OIL & GAS-DRILLING OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES BLDG-PAINT & ALLIED PRDS MACHINERY-FARM LEISURE-GAMING METAL PROD-DISTRIBUTOR FINANCE-PUBL INV FD-FRN POLLUTION CONTROL-EQUIP CHEMICALS-PLASTICS CHEMICALS-BASIC AEROSPACE/DEFENSE EQP FINANCE-CONSUMR/COMML AUTO MFRS-FOREIGN RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES TRUCKS & PARTS-HVY DUTY LEISURE-TOYS/GAMES/HOBBY TRANSPORT-AIR FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION-AIRLINE MACHINERY-CONST/MINING BANKS-FOREIGN RETAIL-HOME FURNISHINGS RETAIL/WHOLESALE-JEWELRY MEDIA-PERIODICALS LEISURE-SERVICES STEEL-PRODUCERS UTILITY-TELEPHONE MACHINERY-GEN INDUSTRIAL LEISURE-PRODUCTS BLDG-HAND TOOLS BLDG PROD-WOOD TRANSPORTATION-SVCS MEDIA-NEWSPAPERS INSURANCE-DIVERSIFIED LEISURE-MOVIES & RELATED FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS MEDIA-RADIO/TV ELECTRICAL-CONTROL INSTR RETAIL-MAJOR DISC CHAINS ELECTRICAL-EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL SERVICES-MISC COMPUTER SOFTW-EDUC/ENTR PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS COMPUTER SOFTWARE-FIN CONSUMER PRODUCTS-MISC DIVERSIFIED OPERATIONS ELEC-MEASRNG INSTRUMENTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-SVCS TELECOMMUNCTNS-CELLULR ELEC PRODUCTS-MISC RETAIL-RESTAURANTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP COMPUTER-GRAPHICS BLDG-CONSTR PRODS/MISC RETAIL-APPAREL/SHOE MEDICAL-GENERIC DRUGS RETAIL-CONSUMER ELECT HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO ELEC-LASER SYS/COMPONENT Thanks and good luck - together we stand! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 21:11:26 +0100 From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts This correction and sell off may be real, but it also indicates to me rotation in leadership. I've only been following for 6 months, but it's clear to me you have to follow the movement in industry sectors, keep raising your stops to protect profits, and sell losers quickly to make money. Take ASTE for example - up between 4 and 5 (at time of message) from 35 and Ford (up still?), maybe down now, but was up on big volume earlier. I didn't mention ASTE in earlier email because I didn't (couldn't) believe that the best stocks would be priced down! ASTE EPS 80 RS 94 SMR A A/D A GROUP PERFORMANCE (MACHINERY-CONST/MINING) 3 months ago > 100, 2 months ago >100, 1 month ago, > 100, 2 weeks ago 121, last week 74 Industry group RS 63 Check its chart out (weekly for 1 year). Last week up on heavy volume! Check Maytag (MYG) also up (stock up on bad day!) and PLCE Watch what happened to NITE today! It blew off last week indicating a sell (as per guidance from the HTMMIS). We have to stick to the rules. Maybe I'm naive, but for us to be successful, we must try and act on all the CANSLIM approaches and contribute what we know to the whole group. So please do contribute ideas about stock group rotation and individual stock leadership. Who's following what the mutual funds are buying - does anyone know a website we can find out from? Check these groups that have moved up! SHOES & REL APPAREL BANKS-MONEY CENTER LEISURE-HOTELS & MOTELS OIL & GAS-DRILLING OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES BLDG-PAINT & ALLIED PRDS MACHINERY-FARM LEISURE-GAMING METAL PROD-DISTRIBUTOR FINANCE-PUBL INV FD-FRN POLLUTION CONTROL-EQUIP CHEMICALS-PLASTICS CHEMICALS-BASIC AEROSPACE/DEFENSE EQP FINANCE-CONSUMR/COMML AUTO MFRS-FOREIGN RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES TRUCKS & PARTS-HVY DUTY LEISURE-TOYS/GAMES/HOBBY TRANSPORT-AIR FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION-AIRLINE MACHINERY-CONST/MINING BANKS-FOREIGN RETAIL-HOME FURNISHINGS RETAIL/WHOLESALE-JEWELRY MEDIA-PERIODICALS LEISURE-SERVICES STEEL-PRODUCERS UTILITY-TELEPHONE MACHINERY-GEN INDUSTRIAL LEISURE-PRODUCTS BLDG-HAND TOOLS BLDG PROD-WOOD TRANSPORTATION-SVCS MEDIA-NEWSPAPERS INSURANCE-DIVERSIFIED LEISURE-MOVIES & RELATED FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS MEDIA-RADIO/TV ELECTRICAL-CONTROL INSTR RETAIL-MAJOR DISC CHAINS ELECTRICAL-EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL SERVICES-MISC COMPUTER SOFTW-EDUC/ENTR PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS COMPUTER SOFTWARE-FIN CONSUMER PRODUCTS-MISC DIVERSIFIED OPERATIONS ELEC-MEASRNG INSTRUMENTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-SVCS TELECOMMUNCTNS-CELLULR ELEC PRODUCTS-MISC RETAIL-RESTAURANTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP COMPUTER-GRAPHICS BLDG-CONSTR PRODS/MISC RETAIL-APPAREL/SHOE MEDICAL-GENERIC DRUGS RETAIL-CONSUMER ELECT HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO ELEC-LASER SYS/COMPONENT Thanks and good luck - together we stand! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 14:24:04 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? I am down to 2 stocks, HH and MCD (in a leveraged ESOP or I'd sell it too). I'll be sitting on my cash for a while at least. Looks like a correction in the making; the NAS can go down to at least 2225 before finding any support. I'd guess prior resistance at DOW 10k becomes support, but I think that will be violated tomorrow or shortly thereafter. The NAS has been correcting for 4 days; it's about time the DJI caught up. I haven't had this much cash since the October '97 debacle; it feels weird! On 03:02 PM 4/19/99 , Peter Newell Said: >I've missed some of the discussion on M. > >But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% on >heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. > >Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. > >Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of junk, >except for some good oil co's. > >Opinions? > >Peter Newell > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 17:03:34 -0700 From: "Joe Barger" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs Or you can try this: http://www.hgsinvestor.com/iandexms30.html joe > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Adair > Sent: Sunday, April 18, 1999 7:00 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs > > > The spreadsheet and formulas were posted on the > http://nt-chat().telescan.com:8080/read/3623,38 by bobvincent@aol.com. bob > is a retired engineer and uses excel as a base . He posted the spreadsheet > on the wallstreetcity board but I bet he would post it here if asked. It > requires some work to figure it out he downloads 252 days of > data per > each of the 30 stocks in to a blank spreadsheet. He then > separates each of > the groups of 252 days by inserting one row between each. > then copies it > to the actual spread sheet. the rest is automatic. He uses > telescan data > feed. I Use quotes plus an export the data to askii and then go to excel > and open the file. I delimit the data and use comma separators. The data > is then usable in excel. > JOhn Adair > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tim Fisher > To: > Sent: Sunday, April 18, 1999 5:26 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom > > > > Where do you get the Iandex 30 chart from? I have looked and > haven't found > it. > > > > P.S. Re: stops I have been letting mine take me out, I was up 20%+ on > almost > > everything so have them set at 15% trailing stops & was taken out of the > drugs, > > AOL & GMST last week. I'm sitting on my cash until this > rotation business > has > > run its course. > > > > At 01:29 PM 4/18/99 -0500, you wrote: > > >I have been following the Iandex 30. It looks scary all 30 of > the sector > > >leaders are turning down. A lot of them are below the 17 day > Mov and some > > >below the 50 day mov. Ian says in his report that if the averages hit > their > > >17 day mov be alert for a correction. > > >On the other hand the dow and nasdaq are doing well, The a/d line is > > >turning up and the mutual fund index is still holding up. I > have a lot of > > >respect for Ian's work. > > >Does this concern anyone else. In the past the Iandex has been an early > > >warning and has been right. > > >John Adair > > > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > - > > > > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 23:11:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M", cyclicals, rotation, correction, etc. OK, time for me to wade in with my unsolicited opinions. There's been a lot of talk about what exactly is a "cyclical" stock, and the info offered has been excellent, and points out the simple fact that there are numerous definitions for this tired and boring and often defensive group. They are manufacturers; they make consumer goods, the kind we will buy in good times or bad; they are old and well established cos, even quasi blue chips; they are names anyone would recognize; they trade at relatively low PEs at the best of times, even lower at the worst of times; they are economically sensitive, barely surviving in bad times and perking up earnings in good times when production and efficiencies soar. They usually have huge investments in factories, warehouses, distribution systems, marketing, advertising, etc. They often have high debt to service, which can be costly in a high interest environment, and sharply beneficial in a falling and low interest condition as they retire or refinance old debt. On correction vs rotation: I believe we clearly have a rotation going on, it is inevitable that this would also result in a correction when our leadership is largely made up of stocks trading with unbelievable market caps; mkt cap/sales ratios; trailing or projected PEs (if earnings are even in the distant forecast); short and poorly established earnings and growth histories; increasing competition; evolving technology, etc. Cyclicals are not the only game in town, oils have shot up dramatically over the short term resulting from crude oil prices up 50% from their 12 year lows just two months ago. There is a belief (expectation, hope, ??) that the latest promised production cuts will in fact happen. I have my doubts. Still, at the moment, it is a self fulling prophecy. Small caps have shown surprising strength, even today they managed to hold on and outperform Naz, and stay even with most of the other major indexes. But another few days like today and they too will drop, IMHO. VIX once again has been warning of a poor CANSLIM mkt, and jumped up again today. New highs/lows has been truly weird lately, strong showing on NYSE, very poor on Naz, probably understandable considering how far Naz slid last week. But lately NYSE indexes, new highs/lows, advance/decline stocks, and up/down volume has been tracking together far better than in many months. This suggests to me that breadth has greatly improved on NYSE. On Nasdaq, it has been just the opposite, so seeing how these two exchanges went in the opposite direction today is no surprise. The economic and direct financial cost of the war in Kosovo is clearly on the minds of much of the mkt, the longer term political implications are only just being realized. Europe's already weakened economy is being further threatened, hence the weak Euro (new low today). The US economy is strong and growing, but may be showing signs of once again slowing its growth. The internet may also be showing some signs of reaching, not saturation, but a level where the growth rates of the past few years cannot be sustained as competition for both existing and potentially new clientale becomes vicious and costly. Likewise, the sector has already showed the signs of consolidation, with acquisitions (esp for stock, not cash) occurring at very high premiums, even considering the already heady valuations. There has been talk for some time of the internet sector deflating, today's 10%, 15%, even 20% drops come as no surprise esp given recent weakness. Leadership has been shifting to oils, cyclicals, and, yes, even small caps, and out of technology in general and internet stocks in particular. Some of the older and better established tech stocks have recently given some reasons for this with weaker earnings and/or talk of slowing sales. Meanwhile, Asia is being perceived as coming off its bottom, even tho there has not yet been much done in the way of meaningful changes, just talk and proposals. That offers another direction entirely for investment dollars, and into a number of sectors, including tech. All of this contributes to momentum, which is not the same as "M", but certainly influences it. I see some of this shift as defensive in nature, and likely to change direction rapidly if the mkt turns around and heads higher. Some of it makes good sense, given the high valuations and degree of recovery from last fall. From past shifts into cyclicals that I have seen, I don't expect this to last for very long, but I'm not putting a time horizon on it. For long term investors, this is probably a good time to be looking for value more than momentum. For day/short term traders with the time to dedicate, it should be a time of high volatility and good profits if you're quick. For die hard CANSLIMers, I would place even greater emphasis on finding good bases, being selective, not being rushed or pressured into hasty decisions, mainly waiting for your time. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 23:35:01 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New guy Welcome, Chris, hope you enjoy the group. There's a wealth of knowledge and experience here for the asking. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - -----Original Message----- From: Chris Hudson To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Monday, April 19, 1999 3:33 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] New guy Hello. My name is Chris Hudson and I just subscribed to the list. I am currently reading O'Neil's book "How to Make Money In Stocks" and so I thought this group would be interesting to subscribe to. I also recently read "How I Made $2 Million In The Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas and liked it very much. I look forward to some intersting discussions. - -- Chris - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 06:45:48 +0100 From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] NAV and MAR Do the bases in NAV and MAR warrant consideration in today's market? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 23:30:09 -0700 From: "mikelu" Subject: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits I just found out that if you have a sell-stop for, for example, 110 shares of MSFT when it splits 2-for-1, you will end up with a sell-stop for 200 shares. Schwab says this is the rule for both NYSE and Nasdaq. I was surprised when I didn't sell all of my shares of MSFT, SUNW, and AMGN, and was wondering how I had made so many mistakes entering my orders. Mike - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 11:41:19 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Craig, You wrote: >Looks like a correction in the NASDAQ and tech stocks to me. The NASDAQ >move out of the recent base looks like "wedging" possibly. What do you mean exactly with the last sentence above? I can see on the chart that the NASDAQ formed a wedge and broke out from this formation. On 04/15 it penetrated support intraday, but closed OK. Next day was danger sign or shakeout. Yesterday, monday 04/19 confirmed it was a danger sign instead of a shakeout. The NASDAQ in now positioned near its lower mid-term channel trendline. The next few days will potentially be exciting days (will or won't we break this trendline and does it matter :) >Leaders like >MSFT and SUNW that broke out lately have collapsed back into their base - >bad sign. DELL nearing the 200SMA. CSCO, INTC, SUNW, YHOO, LU, WCOM broke below the 50SMA. AOL bounced of the 50SMA (for now). If these big cap techs aren't participating it is hard for the NASDAQ to take a leadership role. And some of the above have been showing weakness for several weeks now. There are many failed or nearly failed break-ous in the leadership group - the internets now. If one did not have tight stops one would have lost much of one's profit or one would have a loss already in many of the internet stocks. People who bought at the top are sitting are sitting on losses of 50%+ on many internet stocks. All of this points towards a correction to me. >Rotation? Vicious moving into the cyclicals and maybe oils. >The old leadership is looking really sick. Looking for new leadership. !GAX (Gaming index, with CIR, STN and MGG hitting new highs), !OSX (oils index), XLI (Industrials) and Utilities doing OK. To me that doesn't look like hot-rod leadership from a CANSLIM viewpoint. But I haven't been around long enough to speak from experience. >Doesn't look like a Canslim'r market. Distribution on the NAS on 04/07, >04/12, 04/13, 04/14 and 04/15 was pretty impressive. Indeed. >Advance/declines and >new highs/lows looking better and better weirdly enough - maybe another >sign of rotation (?). Some of us on the list have wondered about that. Has anyone looked for and found an explanation? On Monday NAZ declining volume was extremely high compared to last few months. Almost as high as on 10/08, the low of the Autumn correction/bear market. >Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay the >piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been >tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up 14%. > This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the >rest are technology related. Could you share this portfolio? Looking at the new IandexMS30 I'd say we are in a correction already! Take a look at the stocks that make up the IandexMS30: AOL AIG AMGN AMAT BGEN CMB CSCO KO COST DELL EMC GE G HD INTC KSS LOW LU WCOM MRK MSFT PFE PG PVN SWY SCH SLR GPS TWX WMT Not pretty... IMHO we can already say that the IandexMS30 was a useful indicator as it signaled a possible correction a few days ago. >People are going to be shaken a bit after >today. Will take a while to rebuild confidence. People will be shifing to >value and bonds IMO. Isn't it very interesting to see how hard it is to break the super bull attitude of last few months. Look at this list. Look at how we said a few days ago that only a fool would short the leaders. And at that time it felt perfectly right (and still does). From a psychological standpoint the markets will always do the same thing. The markets rise to far and will correct to far. Personally I find this very comforting, as it means that we will probably always enjoy times to make good money. (One must however always be careful to not become complacent. A x year bear market may and probably will happen a some point in the future. But even after that bear market the sun will most probably starting shining again on the market in ways we might currently not even be able to imagine... This concluded todays pep talk. ;^)) >Warning, there is an awful lot of opinion in the above paragraph and I am >frequently wrong when expressing opinion. The same is true for my reply. >The distribution on the chart, >the collapse of the leaders, the A/D line and new highs/new lows are facts. > Cyclical stocks breaking out over the last 3 weeks is also fact. As is >climactic activity in several NAS leaders. Thanks for another most useful and fascinating post, Craig. For Walter Stock: If I remember correctly Walter, last Autumn you made good money during the 20% market correction. Are you already positioned for this potential correction? - -- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 06:23:08 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits News to me. I have seen Schwab have a habit of saying something is a "rule" when it actually is a "house rule". All full service firms I ever dealt with would automatically adjust an open order from 110 shares to 220 shares. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - -----Original Message----- From: mikelu To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 2:31 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits I just found out that if you have a sell-stop for, for example, 110 shares of MSFT when it splits 2-for-1, you will end up with a sell-stop for 200 shares. Schwab says this is the rule for both NYSE and Nasdaq. I was surprised when I didn't sell all of my shares of MSFT, SUNW, and AMGN, and was wondering how I had made so many mistakes entering my orders. Mike - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 07:08:22 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAV and MAR Marc, To my eye, Navistar is more of a lower left upper right chart. I don't see much of a base there. Marriott is already up about 18% from a short base, too extended for a fresh buy. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - -----Original Message----- From: Marc Laniado To: CANSLIM DISCUSSION LIST Date: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 1:40 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] NAV and MAR Do the bases in NAV and MAR warrant consideration in today's market? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 22:34:30 -0400 From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - April 16, 1999 - Condensed Version Hi All, We dropped a few to 163 this past week. After today, I expect we will drop even more for next week's list. As a reminder, the selection criteria are: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 98 94 86 278 A $ 73.250 161,947 ADBE 92 88 76 256 A $ 59.440 971,473 ADCT 95 89 94 278 A $ 43.500 1,633,467 AEOSD 99 94 91 284 A $ 81.130 399,897 AGN 81 92 74 247 B $ 84.750 399,163 AGPH 72 90 86 248 A $ 57.380 544,510 AHAA 72 96 92 260 A $ 28.000 243,650 ALNT 77 90 77 244 A $ 46.690 195,690 ALSI 99 92 88 279 A $ 31.630 289,050 ALTR 93 93 92 278 A $ 73.630 2,267,770 AMGN 93 94 86 273 A $ 66.810 4,835,190 ANF 99 95 91 285 A $ 89.750 535,220 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 139.750 25,593,926 ASND 97 92 94 283 A $ 89.000 4,146,336 ASTE 80 94 63 237 A $ 35.750 106,773 AT 79 90 77 246 A $ 71.500 747,443 ATI 91 91 92 274 A $ 94.130 2,323,900 AXP 80 86 89 255 A $ 129.880 1,760,533 BBBY 97 86 73 256 A $ 36.750 1,681,447 BBY 74 96 95 265 B $ 52.190 1,837,070 BGF 95 86 93 274 A $ 31.440 304,310 BID 76 92 73 241 A $ 38.000 290,750 BJ 87 89 83 259 B $ 27.130 376,483 BSX 78 86 74 238 A $ 36.690 2,048,493 BSYS 88 86 72 246 A $ 55.000 164,377 BXM 81 94 86 261 A $ 75.250 186,850 CHCS 86 89 91 266 A $ 22.690 102,237 CLE 88 91 90 269 A $ 31.750 602,607 CLFY 97 89 76 262 B $ 20.000 445,800 CMB 71 87 84 242 B $ 86.060 3,270,277 CMGI 77 99 98 274 A $ 260.880 4,805,170 COF 87 91 89 267 A $ 164.000 493,837 CPRT 94 96 86 276 B $ 23.630 177,023 CREE 99 96 92 287 A $ 45.750 223,313 CSCO 97 92 94 283 A $ 105.690 12,184,634 CSN 82 90 77 249 B $ 20.380 478,077 DELL 99 88 67 254 A $ 38.250 34,788,572 DH 88 89 83 260 B $ 68.250 1,570,340 DHR 88 92 61 241 A $ 65.250 354,673 DMMC 95 88 87 270 B $ 20.880 142,013 DSP 93 93 92 278 A $ 21.940 530,873 EFII 96 95 76 267 A $ 45.940 941,707 EMC 97 94 71 262 A $ 107.250 4,781,254 ESRX 96 91 62 249 A $ 75.130 338,367 EUSA 89 93 83 265 A $ 36.000 171,717 EXPD 91 87 74 252 B $ 56.880 141,843 FDC 74 88 89 251 B $ 41.380 1,599,097 FLEX 99 94 87 280 A $ 47.250 958,780 FM 97 89 77 263 A $ 25.440 174,540 FNDTF 80 97 93 270 A $ 39.130 238,590 FON 76 91 95 262 B $ 100.000 1,168,117 FORE 85 88 94 267 B $ 24.810 6,601,370 FOSL 91 86 63 240 A $ 28.880 119,743 FRO 71 94 95 260 B $ 53.060 2,349,600 GCO 89 89 90 268 B $ 11.380 189,197 GDT 82 85 74 241 A $ 52.630 1,544,853 GEOC 84 97 76 257 A $ 52.690 528,030 GICOF 98 97 95 290 A $ 18.000 138,430 GILTF 97 86 94 277 A $ 58.630 194,767 GLC 94 86 73 253 A $ 51.810 166,730 GNSS 84 94 92 270 A $ 23.880 494,427 GPS 96 93 91 280 A $ 68.250 1,597,697 GUC 93 91 91 275 A $ 75.500 765,063 HAS 84 88 75 247 B $ 32.630 999,980 HAUP 77 88 81 246 A $ 12.750 81,973 HD 95 89 60 244 A $ 63.310 3,404,360 HDI 94 92 73 259 A $ 62.630 520,190 HLYW 76 88 73 237 B $ 24.000 1,183,853 IBI 86 95 91 272 A $ 48.250 423,837 IFIN 87 88 89 264 B $ 36.750 87,930 INSS 99 89 72 260 A $ 39.000 449,617 ISCA 90 93 85 268 A $ 55.310 78,127 ITGI 98 94 86 278 A $ 63.000 112,857 JAKK 99 97 75 271 A $ 23.190 180,207 JBL 81 95 87 263 A $ 44.310 1,075,343 JEF 80 86 97 263 B $ 55.750 140,887 KSWS 77 98 90 265 A $ 31.630 322,870 LEVL 88 92 92 272 B $ 46.810 1,496,317 LIN 92 90 78 260 B $ 48.940 255,947 LLTC 79 93 92 264 A $ 59.750 1,431,530 LM 86 86 97 269 A $ 37.000 184,373 LOW 93 90 60 243 B $ 58.000 1,431,427 LUV 91 91 69 251 B $ 32.750 1,530,677 LXK 97 91 81 269 A $ 108.000 692,450 MAR 90 85 80 255 B $ 39.500 497,037 MARG 94 96 86 276 A $ 20.000 163,590 MCD 76 85 77 238 A $ 44.440 3,636,633 MCRL 96 92 92 280 A $ 60.130 185,717 MERQ 76 86 76 238 A $ 27.380 720,093 MMCN 84 87 92 263 A $ 22.750 624,640 MNMD 98 94 74 266 A $ 113.810 211,150 MSFT 99 91 96 286 A $ 86.630 30,587,892 MSPG 77 97 99 273 B $ 101.560 1,317,970 MXIM 89 92 92 273 A $ 60.130 1,498,847 NAV 94 92 69 255 A $ 43.440 624,217 NDB 80 99 97 276 B $ 50.130 1,660,720 NEON 80 97 76 253 B $ 54.500 1,138,303 NOK 97 94 94 285 A $ 75.880 3,153,287 NOVL 77 93 94 264 B $ 22.130 7,270,172 NPCI 76 90 77 243 B $ 16.250 139,380 NSOL 84 98 98 280 A $ 89.750 3,636,647 NT 88 87 94 269 B $ 68.690 1,953,743 NTAP 98 96 71 265 A $ 56.000 1,094,753 OCLI 89 98 68 255 B $ 51.750 145,150 OMC 91 91 80 262 A $ 75.190 700,437 ORBK 90 89 82 261 A $ 49.130 111,250 OSSI 89 92 77 258 A $ 35.940 668,443 OSTE 73 95 74 242 A $ 36.380 167,777 PCLE 75 92 75 242 A $ 53.530 225,533 PEGS 80 94 86 260 B $ 39.000 150,673 PHCC 98 97 62 257 B $ 54.940 110,367 PKN 77 87 68 232 B $ 103.750 218,787 PKX 90 94 66 250 B $ 28.000 572,110 PLCE 99 98 91 288 A $ 34.130 309,503 PLCM 77 94 94 265 A $ 29.810 1,014,913 PLXS 98 87 92 277 B $ 32.250 76,687 POS 88 92 80 260 A $ 86.500 147,417 POWI 72 96 87 255 B $ 31.630 228,913 PROG 85 91 87 263 B $ 13.500 91,880 PSUN 93 89 91 273 A $ 35.880 455,543 PVN 98 96 89 283 A $ 119.250 852,657 QLGC 98 95 92 285 A $ 68.630 480,293 RFMD 80 99 91 270 A $ 55.250 699,623 RTRSY 75 90 86 251 A $ 88.380 202,740 SANM 97 89 87 273 A $ 68.630 832,807 SBUX 96 88 77 261 A $ 31.940 1,809,977 SCAI 95 97 93 285 A $ 61.630 355,350 SCH 97 99 97 293 A $ 114.810 3,680,533 SDLI 92 99 92 283 A $ 100.000 315,130 SLR 96 94 91 281 A $ 50.190 1,462,470 SNS 94 87 71 252 A $ 70.750 511,313 SNTC 70 93 70 233 B $ 73.280 144,427 SONC 91 87 77 255 A $ 27.130 122,447 SORC 72 93 86 251 A $ 12.940 98,437 SUNW 94 95 67 256 A $ 54.940 16,303,244 SWS 77 94 97 268 A $ 40.500 291,460 SYKE 99 85 86 270 A $ 27.880 278,720 TAGS 97 96 70 263 A $ 46.630 129,193 TAN 73 89 65 227 B $ 65.380 703,870 TCAT 85 92 96 273 A $ 47.000 276,863 TIF 90 95 90 275 A $ 81.750 251,837 TJX 93 86 91 270 B $ 32.880 1,122,740 TLAB 98 91 94 283 A $ 105.810 2,651,220 TMPW 88 97 80 265 A $ 75.250 598,933 TRK 87 93 85 265 B $ 40.000 115,103 TSFW 99 90 76 265 A $ 21.060 507,507 TVGIA 96 97 89 282 A $ 41.630 223,353 UNPH 96 96 94 286 A $ 126.810 840,923 USF 93 87 62 242 B $ 30.810 3,113,310 USFC 88 85 61 234 B $ 35.750 197,327 UTX 91 91 71 253 B $ 142.000 883,277 VISX 99 99 97 295 A $ 126.000 1,068,540 VOD 96 87 92 275 A $ 180.690 534,073 VRTS 99 92 76 267 A $ 80.750 795,937 VTSS 97 86 92 275 A $ 45.000 1,755,113 WAT 98 94 79 271 A $ 107.630 119,100 WCOM 82 91 95 268 B $ 84.750 12,205,892 WMT 87 89 83 259 B $ 95.000 4,330,544 WTSLA 91 86 91 268 A $ 36.970 122,513 XLNX 79 96 92 267 A $ 48.060 3,343,836 XYLN 75 95 94 264 A $ 36.880 916,247 YHOO 77 99 99 275 A $ 189.190 8,190,543 ZQK 96 95 70 261 A $ 42.380 116,647 - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 02:47:51 GMT From: musicant.pacbell.net@mail-gw6.pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? On Mon, 19 Apr 1999 15:46:11 -0400, you wrote: :Looks like a correction in the NASDAQ and tech stocks to me. The NASDAQ :move out of the recent base looks like "wedging" possibly. Leaders like :MSFT and SUNW that broke out lately have collapsed back into their base = - - :bad sign. Rotation? Vicious moving into the cyclicals and maybe oils. :The old leadership is looking really sick. Looking for new leadership. :Doesn't look like a Canslim'r market. Distribution on the NAS on 04/07, :04/12, 04/13, 04/14 and 04/15 was pretty impressive. Advance/declines = and :new highs/lows looking better and better weirdly enough - maybe another :sign of rotation (?). Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay = the :piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been :tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up = 14%. : This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the :rest are technology related. People are going to be shaken a bit after :today. Will take a while to rebuild confidence. People will be shifing= to :value and bonds IMO. An analyst on NBR on PBS tonight predicted a weakening bond market over the next few months -- yields coming down, and said that money will therefore not shift into bonds. He sees equities as the place to be. Of course, he's with a bullish group, and they are 85% in stocks, 5% in cash and the rest in bonds (I think).=20 Dan : :Warning, there is an awful lot of opinion in the above paragraph and I = am :frequently wrong when expressing opinion. The distribution on the = chart, :the collapse of the leaders, the A/D line and new highs/new lows are = facts. : Cyclical stocks breaking out over the last 3 weeks is also fact. As is :climactic activity in several NAS leaders. : :Best Regards, :Craig : :At 03:02 PM 4/19/99 -0700, you wrote: :>I've missed some of the discussion on M. :> :>But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% = on :>heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. :> :>Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. :> :>Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of = junk, :>except for some good oil co's. :> :>Opinions? :> :>Peter Newell :> :> :>- :> :> : :- : - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 10:02:54 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] "Model Portfolio" Johan, You wrote: >>Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay the >>piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been >>tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up 14%. >> This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the >>rest are technology related. > >Could you share this portfolio? Sure. MSFT SUNW NTBK CMGI FDX HD MRK SBUX ESRX BBY AOL TXN EGRP INKT This imaginary portfolio was "purchased" on breakouts and used 20% margin. Roughly equal amounts of starting capital was placed in each stock. At one point it was up about 60-65% YTD (in the low 60's), and as of the current moment it is up 10.53% on my Yahoo Portfolio page. These are all stocks I actually bought on the breakouts and I have sold each of them for one reason or another. I kept the "portfolio" to track the performance of "buy and hold" vs the trading I have done. It is amazing how volatile this portfolio has been (I thought the larger - non-internet stocks in there would provide more "ballast" than they did). Best Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #584 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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