From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #743 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, November 14 1999 Volume 02 : Number 743 In this issue: [CANSLIM] various stocks [CANSLIM] Long-term techs [CANSLIM] Watch List Re: UOPIX(was[CANSLIM] New to group.) [CANSLIM] Fw: Sage Online's Market Talk segment Re: [CANSLIM] FOMC Meeting on Tuesday ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 13 Nov 1999 11:53:29 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] various stocks Here are a few stocks I have rooted out of various sources in the last couple of days - WCOM and TLAB are a couple of big guys that appear to me to be completing corrections and might be ready to move higher again. TLAB especially has a cup waiting for a handle look to it. RADS spiked out of a consolidation area on Friday. ISCA has formed a long broad base. Not sure the business is ideal in this high tech market, but I guess stock car racing has become one of or maybe the biggest spectator sport(s) in the country (for some reason that is unfathomable to me). TTIL broke out the other day, seems to be growing pretty nicely, found this one in IBD Weekend Review near the top of the list, so in a strong group. WIZTF in a flat base. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Nov 1999 14:04:08 -0500 From: "Zoran Mitrovski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Long-term techs Earl, Dave, and everybody, This was an observation I made about this time last year in an email to Dave . Then I decided to keep at least 25% of my liquid net worth in (high quality, consistently growing, well managed, and market leading) tech stocks -- hopefully with minimal trading to minimize taxes. Then I entered LU (stock purchase plan from work), SUNW, CSCO, DELL, MSFT, EMC, INTC (sold, not growing fast enough for my taste). The plan was to SLOWLY trade in and out of these (thus varying my exposure from 25% to 200%) depending on their earnings performance; my outlook on their positioning relative to important tech trends (as a wireless scientist/engineer I should know something about that); and, of course, their price charts. In addition, this strategy was supposed to be more suited to my status as a worker (instead of a PhD student with a much more flexible schedule). The result after one year? I've had the best year ever with the added benefit of significantly decreased trading and tax expenses. Of course, this did not preclude me from entering some old style (short term) trades with other stocks but the bulk of the profits were made by just sitting tight with the good old ones. Also, I am constantly on the lookout for new additions to the "hall-of-famers" group. This strategy is very similar to the so called "mattress stuffers" but it is also different in many ways. I am still tweaking the strategy but I have a feeling that I am onto something. The avalanche of very convenient new tracking instruments (XLK, QQQ, SPY, DIA, HHH, etc.) allows for nice hedging structures, where one could limit his/her exposure to the overall market-tide or sector risks but still remain in individual long-term positions that do not warrant selling. This should work wonders for the portfolio's Sharpe ratio. For the past few weeks I have been short SPY, but that loss was way overshadowed by the profits from the tech longs. Most of the longs are approaching 1 year maturity while the reported loss on the eventually closed short SPY position will also come in handy come tax time. If, on the other hand the crowd remembers to panic come Y2K, an increased SPY short should offset some (or all) of the losses incurred on the long side. If things go well on the long run, the short-term trades should mostly be (tax-cutting) losing shorts, while the long-term positions should remain (tax-saving) money makers. I just tought I should give something back after almost a year during which I only received from the digest. Cheers, Zoran P.S. I just read somewhere that CSCO is in a sequence of 39 quarters in which it has met (or, mostly beat) analyst expectations! And how much of the globe still remains to be wired (or wireless-ly hooked up)? Indeed, sometimes it's hard to see the forest from the trees (Or was it vice-versa?). Earl Setser wrote: > >Dave Cameron > >dfcameron@ameritech.net > > > >(who would have been better off buying Tech Stocks at the start > > of the year and just sitting on them!) > > > WARNING: Not CANSLIM specific. > > Interesting observation. But have you noticed that the same statement > applies to technology for 5 years, and 10 years, etc? Early > this year, I > was reviewing some 10 year performance numbers for mutual funds in a > newsletter I get. I noticed that ALL 10 of the Fidelity > Select (sector > funds) that were listed had top performance over the long term. This > newsletter "BOLDs" funds that have the top 10% performance of > all funds > over the time period shown. I was astounded that all 10 > funds were bolded!! > > Now these weren't all tech sector funds. I would guess that > the funds were > an overview of the more popular growth sectors that fidelity > provides. The > 10 funds were Biotech, Brokerage, Computers, Electronics, Financial > Services, Health, Home Finance, Software, Technology, and > Telecom. The > perform of a couple of the technology funds were the best. In fact, > Electronics and Computers both gained over 1100%. > > I am an engineer, and have always felt that technology was a > good place ot > be invested, but I hadn't really influenced my portfolio with > that very > much. Upon reviewing this data, I decided a larger > technology bias was a > good "bet" over the long term, and I moved a good portion of > my funds into > Tech Sector funds. I have discussed this with various co-workers, and > everyone seems to think technology is going to grow rapidly > over the next > 10+ years, but almost no one has adjusted their investments > to match that > belief! > > Yes, it was a VERY good decision, so far, anyway. I now sit > with abut 70% > of my portfolio in technology, and I have decided to keep a > 50-75% bias > over the next 10 years. (Note that the S&P500 is about 23% > tech, so this > is a pretty large over-weighting.) > > What do you guys think of this approach? > > > - - > > ------------------------------ > > End of canslim-digest V2 #742 > ***************************** > > To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to > "majordomo@xmission.com" > with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. > For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send > "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Nov 1999 12:29:54 -0800 From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Watch List Well, most of the stocks on this weeks list are in strong uptrends, but there are still some good stocks poised for moves (or should that be greatness?). The following list has 2 parts. The first part is stocks basing for at least 4 weeks. The second part is stocks that have recently broken out, but look like they might give a 2nd chance buy if you watch them closely. A couple of these just broke out Thursday or Friday. All stocks are from Friday's weekend update (85/85 or better), top 60 industry groups, B/B/B or better ratings, and A-C sponsorship rating. Do your own homework, and enjoy. FORR BBRC PMCS THQI TLAB VARL KRON VOD ZOMX ADVS TTIL CGN LLTC MCRL DIIG PROX BTGC CDWC JMED - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Nov 1999 20:26:36 -0600 From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: UOPIX(was[CANSLIM] New to group.) - ----- Original Message ----- From: Earl Setser To: Sent: Saturday, November 13, 1999 10:15 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New to group. > At 07:22 AM 11/13/99 -0600, you wrote: > > ... CANSLIM content and then... > > >Dave Cameron > >dfcameron@ameritech.net > > > >(who would have been better off buying Tech Stocks at the start > > of the year and just sitting on them!) > > > WARNING: Not CANSLIM specific. > > Interesting observation. But have you noticed that the same statement > applies to technology for 5 years, and 10 years, etc> (Snip) > I am an engineer, and have always felt that technology was a good place ot > be invested, but I hadn't really influenced my portfolio with that very > much. Upon reviewing this data, I decided a larger technology bias was a > good "bet" over the long term, and I moved a good portion of my >funds into Tech Sector funds> Yes, it was a VERY good decision, so >far, anyway. I now sit with abut 70% of my portfolio in technology, >and I have decided to keep a 50-75% bias over the next 10 years. >(Note that the S&P500 is about 23% tech, so this is a pretty large >over-weighting.) > > What do you guys think of this approach? Earl, I certainly agree with you, however, there are several funds that "out-sector" the sector funds. A couple of my present favorites are VWEGX and VWPVX. They are ranked #2 & #3 respectively out of 701 growth funds with returns of 218% & 184% YTD, and 25% & 26% for the last four weeks. I'm glad you brought this up, because it gives me the opportunity to offer the CSers for their consideration, an alternative to a MMF when they get stopped out with a loss.(I don't do individual stocks, but I really enjoy this group). The idea is that once the loss has been taken and the money is in a MMF, and if there are no immediate prospects for another stock, go to UOPIX. This is Profunds Ultra OTC Inv(95% YTD & 28% last four weeks). It is designed to double the NASDAQ 100. If this fund was used as an intermediary for a MMF(from which to trade individual stocks), yearly returns could be greatly enhanced. The fund also doubles the losses of the NDX !00, so there is some risk, but I'm certain that it will greatly outperform any MMF, over a year's time. If an investor began the year fully invested in UOPIX, then sold a portion which would wind up in his MMF, then to the stock of his choice, he could take (say) ten 8% losses/yr, and still be ahead or at least even. This is a radical approach, and needs to be discussed before anyone just dives in. It seems sound enough, but I don't think it has ever been executed. This may not be for the faint of heart, and there are problems of exchanging between funds to get into stocks from UOPIX and vice versa, but I believe that these are just mechanical. Any thoughts? Best wishes, Walt - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Nov 1999 08:07:07 -0600 From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Sage Online's Market Talk segment Hi men, FWIW. Best wishes, Walt Interesting Chat: ******************************* Every Thursday at 5:00 PM EST, Doug MacKay, co-manager of Red Oak Technology Select, will be a guest on Sage Online's Market Talk segment. Doug will be answering AOL user's questions regarding the Oak Associates Funds and the stock market. America Online users can access Market Talk using the keyword: AOL live. Sage Chat with Doug MacKay of Oak Associates, 11/04/99 Comment: Live from Akron, OH, please welcome Doug MacKay, portfolio manager at Oak Associates. Doug can answer your questions about stocks and the markets. Visit www.oakassociates.com or call (888)462-5386. Sage Lion: Welcome to MarketTalk Doug! Question: Has the NASDAQ replaced the Dow and S&P as the barometer of U.S. markets? Doug MacKay: Yes, I believe so. I think it's only fitting that as we enter into the next millennium, that the transition has occurred. But it's been happening for a while. If you look at the stocks that have been added S&P over the last couple years, most have been from the new economy sectors, like technology. Question: Are you an Apple fan? Doug MacKay: Not really. It's nothing that gets me really excited. Question: When and at what price do you see AMZN bottoming out? Doug MacKay: Amazon is not one that we own. I would actually think, however, that their Christmas season could be good. It could work itself higher on a trade. We don't own any. Question: Why has THDO gone down lately? Doug MacKay: I don't know specifically why. My guess would be perhaps something to do with the release of the new Sega game system, but that's only a guess. Question: Do you think IBM will go up as it has been recently? Doug MacKay: We're not big fans of IBM, we're more interested in companies that are showing strong revenue growth. Although IBM is doing OK, they don't show up on our radar screen. Question: Do you see MSFT holding around low 90's for remainder of the year? Doug MacKay: I actually am pretty bullish on the market through the year and I think that MSFT is one stock that you could say lagged the overall market in the last couple of months. I'm bullish on MSFT. Question: CYMI, buy, sell or hold? Doug MacKay: They are in the semiconductor capital equipment industry. Theyspecialize in the laser end of that industry, I'm bullish there short and long term so I'd be inclined to buy that, just on that basis. Question: Do you think CSCO's drops of late are just more of a buying opportunity than anything else? Thanks. Doug MacKay: Yes. Question: Thoughts on JDSU and QCOM. Thanks Doug MacKay: We love JDSU, it's actually Red Oaks largest holding. It's had a huge run but I'd continue to buy based on the longer term market opportunity and their ability to consolidate the industry as they continue to do today with the acquisition of OCLI. I know the stock has had a monster run but, unfortunately, I can't talk intelligently about it. Question: Do you expect the overall up trend in tech to continue over the next quarter? Doug MacKay: I think it definitely can continue. In the short run, those...Let's start over...I'm very bullish on the long term outlook for tech stocks and also continue to think the short run will show additional upside. Comment: We are speaking with Doug MacKay, portfolio manager at Oak Associates. Doug can answer your questions about stocks and the markets. Visit www.oakassociates.com or call (888) 462-5386. Question: Do you see EGRP going higher? Doug MacKay: I prefer owning Schwab as I think ultimately, in that space, it will be a combination of bricks and mortar's advice and technology. In the online trading area, Schwab would be the only one that fits that bill. Question: Thoughts on GBLX.......thank you. Doug MacKay: Very interesting company, however I do not own any. Question: With JDSU's recent run up, do you think they will change the 2 for 1 split to something like 3/1 or even 4/1? Thanks. Doug MacKay: No. Question: Following this commentary on a regular basis find that a few weeks ago the 'lifetime' holds were Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, IBM, Lucent, etc. Now it seems like the 'lifetime' holds have already shifted to Nortel, Quest, JDSU, Qualcom and SFE. Can you comment? Doug MacKay: I think JDSU is definitely closer to that category but, in the tech area, you still have to stay on top of the trends because there is still the chance that a small company can dismantle a larger one. It's unlikely, but not impossible. Question: How long do think it will be until CD begins to recover? Doug MacKay: Probably quite some time. Usually when a company has to restate earnings, it takes a long time to rebuild credibility with Wall Street. Question: Thoughts on INKT & RNWK. Doug MacKay: Do not own either, I think INKT looks interesting, however. RNWK -- I think I would prefer to have MSFT. Question: How are your funds doing YTD? Doug MacKay: Great! Last time I checked, Pin Oak was up about 50% year to date. White Oak was up about 30% and Red Oak was up 75%. Question: What mutual fund sectors would you definitely not be in for next few quarters? Doug MacKay: Things like paper stocks, auto stocks, building stocks. I can tell you that we are only in 3 sectors, technology, healthcare and financial services -- that's probably an easier way to answer. Question: Which of your funds would you recommend for an IRA? Doug MacKay: I would say Red Oak has probably got the best chance of long term outperformance because it is a tech fund and that is the sector we think will do the best over the long haul. Question: Do you see a greater demand for computers, telecom equipment, and software driving up earnings and stock prices for stocks like MSFT,CSCO, Intel, NT, etc., in the first quarter after we get beyond Y2K? Doug MacKay: Yes and I think much beyond the first quarter as well. Question: What's your outlook for the DSL industry and RAMP in particular? Doug MacKay: I think it's a very promising industry but it's also one where the leaders aren't quite defined. Covad is probably the best positioned. Sage Lion: Thank you for joining us today Doug! Any thoughts going forward? Doug MacKay: Ride the wave! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Nov 1999 23:50:03 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FOMC Meeting on Tuesday On Fri, 12 Nov 1999 13:16:16 -0800 (PST), you wrote: : when was the follow through day ? : :thanks :Anindo I believe it was 10-28-99. More than confirmed by 10-29, a Friday. Dan :> At 02:55 PM 11/12/99 +0100, you wrote: :> >With Nasdaq as it is, I doubt, the fed won't move. Too much = exuberance here. :>=20 :> It doesn't matter what the Fed will do. The market has already done = it's :> thing. :>=20 :> And technically the Nasdaq is due for a rest. If the Fed hikes rates = .25 :> that will be a good excuse for some profit taking by some. :>=20 :> If the Fed hikes .50, then we might get another reaction.=20 :>=20 :> What is important is that, once again, the follow thru day told us to = get :> invested BEFORE we learnt about all these positive economic reports. :>=20 :>=20 :>=20 :>=20 :>=20 :> -- Johan=20 :>=20 :>=20 :>=20 :> - :>=20 :>=20 :>=20 : : :- : - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #743 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.