From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #781 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, December 28 1999 Volume 02 : Number 781 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] gnet - cup and handle formation? Re: [CANSLIM] ETEK jump? [CANSLIM] Top 15 of the Decade [CANSLIM] Acc/dis Numbers Re: [CANSLIM] gnet - cup and handle formation? Re: [CANSLIM] ETEK jump? [CANSLIM] bvf RE: [CANSLIM] bvf Re: [CANSLIM] bvf Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List (delayed) RE: [CANSLIM] bvf [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner [CANSLIM] Emlx breaking out Re: [CANSLIM] Emlx breaking out Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner Re: [CANSLIM] gnet - cup and handle formation? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 18:55:25 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] gnet - cup and handle formation? Earl, My mistake - I was looking at an old Daily Graphs - a check of IBD corrects me. Dave Earl Setser wrote: > >Anyway, as far as GNET is concerned - I don't have the revenue > >figures in front of me. I looked at IBD - and of course see > >that the RS is great, and the EPS is awful. > > Looking at Thursday's paper, I get an EPS of 82 for GNET. Am I missing > something? I use 85/85 for my weekly screening since IBD accomplishes much > of it for me with the weekend update. However, for general rules, I still > go with 80/80 if all else looks good. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 18:39:11 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ETEK jump? Tim, Yes. I've seen the news about the selling by it's founders but l look at it as a healthy taking of some profits. Plus, this info has been known for a while by all. Tommorrow may tell a better picture. Thanks for the info. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: Sent: Monday, December 27, 1999 3:19 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ETEK jump? > From Upside Money: > > Mixed Chips: The semiconductor sector had a hard time reaching a consensus > this morning. Etek (ETEK: +5 9/16, 114 1/16), which has > been popping up in the > insider trading news reports in recent weeks as two of its > founders, Jing Jong > Pan and Theresa Stone Pan, rush to cash in on rising market > value, continued its > end of the year climb, adding five percent in morning trading. > > On 01:43 PM 12/27/99 , Bill Triffet Said: > >Hi all, > >My favorite canslim holding - E-tek Dynamics jumped up another 22% today > >right at about 3:00. Not complaining but... I Can't find any news that > >might drive it today. Any thoughts? > > > >Also, on another note - Have folks here found that the last hour of trading > >seems to be the best time to get in/out of holdings lately? It may be just > >my perception but it sure looks like everything happens towards the end of > >the day. Maybe it holds to WONS comment ( not sure where I read it) that in > >a bull market, the day often opens down with a rise towards the end - as > >opposed to a bear where things open on the up then close down for the day. > > > >-Bill Triffet > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 22:02:45 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Top 15 of the Decade From Infobeat, don't you wish you'd bot and held these mattress stuffers?? Okay, the best stocks of the decade are (countin' down): 15. Sun Mike (SUNW), 10-year return: 7,162.96% 14. Mister Softie (MSFT), 7,482.64% 13. Charles Schwab (SCH), 7,984.78% 12. Veritas (VRTS), 8,536.36% 11. Maxim Integrated (MXIM), 8,734.95% 10. Best Buy (BBY), 9,376.00% 9. Clear Channel (CCU), 13,700.00% 8. (TLAB), 16,920.51% 7. JDS Uniphase (JDSU), 18,754.96% 6. Solectron (SLR), 21,233.33% 5. CMGI, 57,190.91% 4. EMC, 68,314.29% 3. DELL, 72,400.00% 2. (AOL), 81,400.00% and the No. 1 stock of the '90s is...(drum roll, please): 1. Cisco Systems (CSCO), 124,825.00% Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 20:15:58 -0800 (PST) From: FBNAirPLT s Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/dis Numbers Here are the latest Acc/Dis numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 12/1/1999 1438 2341 1153 1136 554 57% 8% 12/2/1999 1417 2397 1196 1077 543 58% 8% 12/3/1999 1414 2438 1173 1069 541 58% 8% 12/6/1999 1428 2456 1148 1068 585 58% 9% 12/7/1999 1477 2488 1132 1020 525 60% 8% 12/8/1999 1469 2421 1148 1058 544 59% 8% 12/9/1999 1470 2318 1127 1101 609 57% 9% 12/10/1999 1517 2243 1126 1114 638 57% 10% 12/13/1999 1529 2193 1112 1145 671 56% 10% 12/14/1999 1574 2187 1123 1148 652 56% 10% 12/15/1999 1590 2130 1148 1132 677 56% 10% 12/16/1999 1516 2113 1153 1192 712 54% 11% 12/17/1999 1507 2153 1147 1173 689 55% 10% 12/20/1999 1519 2175 1139 1146 701 55% 10% 12/21/1999 1500 2228 1134 1151 673 56% 10% 12/22/1999 1483 2215 1162 1139 671 55% 10% 12/23/1999 1538 2183 1121 1158 668 56% 10% 12/27/1999 1536 2172 1126 1166 665 56% 10% Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 12/1/1999,1438,2341,1153,1136,554,57%,8% 12/2/1999,1417,2397,1196,1077,543,58%,8% 12/3/1999,1414,2438,1173,1069,541,58%,8% 12/6/1999,1428,2456,1148,1068,585,58%,9% 12/7/1999,1477,2488,1132,1020,525,60%,8% 12/8/1999,1469,2421,1148,1058,544,59%,8% 12/9/1999,1470,2318,1127,1101,609,57%,9% 12/10/1999,1517,2243,1126,1114,638,57%,10% 12/13/1999,1529,2193,1112,1145,671,56%,10% 12/14/1999,1574,2187,1123,1148,652,56%,10% 12/15/1999,1590,2130,1148,1132,677,56%,10% 12/16/1999,1516,2113,1153,1192,712,54%,11% 12/17/1999,1507,2153,1147,1173,689,55%,10% 12/20/1999,1519,2175,1139,1146,701,55%,10% 12/21/1999,1500,2228,1134,1151,673,56%,10% 12/22/1999,1483,2215,1162,1139,671,55%,10% 12/23/1999,1538,2183,1121,1158,668,56%,10% 12/27/1999,1536,2172,1126,1166,665,56%,10% Robert __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://messenger.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 23:28:49 EST From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] gnet - cup and handle formation? Dave, I am concerned about GNET not being able to establish new highs. In looking at the chart when it originally retested its new high it was in April right at the internet correction and the market soon followed. I am concerned about this last false breakout into new highs. My question is with the amount of shares bought at the beginning of Jan. and much of them shares looking at a 1000% gain what percent of people would have actually held for long term gains. I am wondering if there could be a sell off for taking capital gains? Any opinions? Frank - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 23:43:01 EST From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ETEK jump? I remembering hearing the same thing. I think WON discusses it when he talks about general market direction. Why can't it apply to a stock also? Frank - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 10:19:47 +0200 From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: [CANSLIM] bvf BVF broke out yesterday over 5 points to 87 (6.34%) on news of final approval of Cardizem cd generic and with over 2X ADV. Can someone supply eps/rs info? I am very tempted to get in but would like to hear others opinions. David At work, the authority of a person is inversely proportional to the number of pens that person is carrying. ============================================ David S. Pinhasik Tadiran Information Systems @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel +972 3 530 5209 (new) +972 3 534 5748 fax +1 707 885 7831 US efax dsap@shani.net ============================================ This signature and tagline were generated by SchizoSigz! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 00:34:26 -0800 From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] bvf I wouldn't say it broke out. I think it last broke out around 60 from a 3-month base. EPS 97 RS 91 A/D A SMR A. Mike - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of David S. Pinhasik Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 1999 12:20 AM To: canslim Subject: [CANSLIM] bvf BVF broke out yesterday over 5 points to 87 (6.34%) on news of final approval of Cardizem cd generic and with over 2X ADV. Can someone supply eps/rs info? I am very tempted to get in but would like to hear others opinions. David At work, the authority of a person is inversely proportional to the number of pens that person is carrying. ============================================ David S. Pinhasik Tadiran Information Systems @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel +972 3 530 5209 (new) +972 3 534 5748 fax +1 707 885 7831 US efax dsap@shani.net ============================================ This signature and tagline were generated by SchizoSigz! - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 11:39:00 +0200 From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] bvf Are you then saying it's too extended ot get in? Maybe there is enough momentum (ie QCOM broke out at 200 in one day to over 250. Because of CS rules I didn't get in, and today....) - ----- Original Message ----- From: mikelu To: Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 1999 10:34 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] bvf > I wouldn't say it broke out. I think it last broke out around 60 from a > 3-month base. > > EPS 97 RS 91 A/D A SMR A. > > Mike > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of David S. Pinhasik > Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 1999 12:20 AM > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] bvf > > > BVF broke out yesterday over 5 points to 87 (6.34%) on news of final > approval of Cardizem cd generic and with over 2X ADV. Can someone supply > eps/rs info? I am very tempted to get in but would like to hear others > opinions. > > David > > > > > > At work, the authority of a person is inversely proportional to the number > of > pens that person is carrying. > ============================================ > David S. Pinhasik > Tadiran Information Systems > @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel > +972 3 530 5209 (new) > +972 3 534 5748 fax > +1 707 885 7831 US efax > dsap@shani.net > ============================================ > This signature and tagline were generated by SchizoSigz! > > > > > - > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: 28 Dec 1999 07:01:23 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List (delayed) MTS Tom? Looks like it died and rotted? Typoo? At 08:21 PM 12/25/99 -0500, you wrote: >BASES: >TQNT, XETA (possible topping, vol down), MRCY, PSUN, NOK, >ORBK, MWD, BBOX, KFY (???), KRON, TECH, MTS, DIAN, NICE, >AVRT (small cap and low priced), MTG, LOGIY, LEH, APCC, >DSET, POS, WPPGY, NBTY, WMT, ESIO > >Other items: >AMM - breaking out from a long c&h >POOL - breaking out from a long base > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 28 Dec 1999 07:19:53 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] bvf Pivot was around 80, closed at 87, that's 9% or so on around 3X ADV. That's a breakout in my book. It's now at 85, so you've got a second chance to catch it closer to the pivot. It's a third stage or second stage, the base was from 70-80, was a HTF but drifted up the last week. Where else are you going to get a nice 3-week base in this market? Look at how the volume died during that base. Heck, most of us are buying off of 1-2 week bases these days! Nice catch, David. I'll be looking to enter soon. It just bounced off of 85... At 12:34 AM 12/28/99 -0800, you wrote: >I wouldn't say it broke out. I think it last broke out around 60 from a >3-month base. > >EPS 97 RS 91 A/D A SMR A. > >Mike > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of David S. Pinhasik >Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 1999 12:20 AM >To: canslim >Subject: [CANSLIM] bvf > > >BVF broke out yesterday over 5 points to 87 (6.34%) on news of final >approval of Cardizem cd generic and with over 2X ADV. Can someone supply >eps/rs info? I am very tempted to get in but would like to hear others >opinions. > >David Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 28 Dec 1999 11:00:51 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner I found this article fascinating. Who is Irwin Kellner? Is he an avowed Bear? Anyway what he has to say makes some sense to me, and echoes a lot of what Tom has been saying this past year or more. Does anyone else think his scenario is likely in the near future? http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19991228/news/current/kellner.htx?source= blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 22:01:02 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Emlx breaking out EMLX breaking out on reasonable volume. Nice base though... considering the circumstances. B^) - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 17:02:42 EST From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Emlx breaking out breakout of High Tight Flag formation possible - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 17:08:57 -0500 From: Sam Funchess Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner Let me open myself to the firestorm that is inevitable. Call me an optimist but, I do not feel we are going to see a major implosion of the stock market. This bubble that everyone talks about is not ready to pop. We are in a different time (I know everyone has heard it before) but the big difference that I see in this market vs. previous market is the number of participants. I do not feel that the times are different or these stocks are any different than those in history, I just believe there is more money than ever before in the market. And the best part of it is that it is designed to stay in the market long term. In today's economy a large percentage of people have access to a retirement plan through work. Albeit, most people aren't maxing theirs out like I am but they are putting money aside for retirement. They do not look at this money as a savings account they can cash in easily, nor do I believe they are watching the values like we do (active investors). I know my wife only looks at what change has happened since the last statement. It is not even real money to her. She is not concerned with what it is worth tomorrow or next year, just that it is worth something 10-20 years from now and history and averages are on her side. The article you referenced even stated that 50% of the households are in the market today. Would someone please post what the percentages were for the past 75 years if they know. What I find funny is; the government wanted Americans to plan for their own retirement and not rely on social security. Well that is exactly what we are doing and they are complaining about it and telling us now that the market is not the best place for our money and retirement plans. Who should we trust to manage our retirement money? What investment vehicles should we use? A 5% CD? No chance. Now I do believe that there is a brick wall in an economy and we may be nearing it and maybe not. We will not be able to judge until we see or hit it. Can we expect inflation? Sure 3% on average, why not. Should we be afraid of inflation? I don't think so. The notion of zero inflation just does not jive with me. Companies always try to improve their bottom line by raising the price by 10%, this is not going to change in a capitalist society, nor do I feel it should (this was not an invitation for socialist of communist comments in any way so do try and persuade me anything is better). Should wages increase? I think so. I do not believe that wages have kept up with inflation over the past several years (if I am wrong please let me know) and maybe this is the economy's way of balancing out the wealth that has been generated over the past 10 years. Comments are made all the time about how there will not be a middle class in the next 10- 20 years. Maybe this is a way to ensure that the middle class stays intact. My point is that there is a lot more money in the market than ever before, brought on by retirement accounts. Fund managers have to do something with the excess cash. They are not going to put it in CDs I am sure. I think it would be interesting to do a study on the price fluctuations and the % of households investing and see if our PEs are so out of line but, I don't have the time. I just don't see a pop in this "bubble" because as long as people are employed they are going to put money in their retirement plans and forget about it. I know my generation has no faith that social security will be there for us and that is why I put 15% away each week. And no, I do not plan on removing it from the market over the long haul. Short stints...yes Sam Tim Fisher wrote: > I found this article fascinating. Who is Irwin Kellner? Is he an avowed > Bear? Anyway what he has to say makes some sense to me, and echoes a lot of > what Tom has been saying this past year or more. Does anyone else think his > scenario is likely in the near future? > > http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19991228/news/current/kellner.htx?source= > blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: 28 Dec 1999 16:00:34 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner Hey you should be putting in 18%! Anyway I think some of what you are saying has a lot to do with the state of the market today./ It does not however address what one man (I.e. Greenspam) can do if he wants to "bring the market to its knees". This is what happened in 1929 and I think could just as easily happen if a misguided monetary policy manager wanted to "punish" the market. Remember that it was horrible Fed policy that brought about runaway inflation and 20% mortgage rates two decades ago. You and I will pull our money out of the market if interest rates shoot up to 1980s levels, and so will all those fund managers. Therefore so will all those 401k participants. The only way this could be averted that I can think of is if the "market" as a whole ignored the economic implications of skyrocketing interest rates, but I do not believe that is possible. After all, if corporations are paying huge interest payments then profits have to go down. On 02:08 PM 12/28/99 , Sam Funchess Said: >Let me open myself to the firestorm that is inevitable. Call me an optimist >but, I do not feel we are going to see a major implosion of the stock market. >This bubble that everyone talks about is not ready to pop. We are in a >different time (I know everyone has heard it before) but the big >difference that >I see in this market vs. previous market is the number of participants. I do >not feel that the times are different or these stocks are any different than >those in history, I just believe there is more money than ever before in the >market. And the best part of it is that it is designed to stay in the market >long term. In today's economy a large percentage of people have access to a >retirement plan through work. Albeit, most people aren't maxing theirs >out like >I am but they are putting money aside for retirement. They do not look at >this >money as a savings account they can cash in easily, nor do I believe they are >watching the values like we do (active investors). I know my wife only >looks at >what change has happened since the last statement. It is not even real >money to >her. She is not concerned with what it is worth tomorrow or next year, just >that it is worth something 10-20 years from now and history and averages >are on >her side. The article you referenced even stated that 50% of the >households are >in the market today. Would someone please post what the percentages were for >the past 75 years if they know. > >What I find funny is; the government wanted Americans to plan for their own >retirement and not rely on social security. Well that is exactly what we are >doing and they are complaining about it and telling us now that the market is >not the best place for our money and retirement plans. Who should we trust to >manage our retirement money? What investment vehicles should we use? A >5% CD? >No chance. Now I do believe that there is a brick wall in an economy and >we may >be nearing it and maybe not. We will not be able to judge until we see or hit >it. Can we expect inflation? Sure 3% on average, why not. Should we be >afraid >of inflation? I don't think so. The notion of zero inflation just does not >jive with me. Companies always try to improve their bottom line by >raising the >price by 10%, this is not going to change in a capitalist society, nor do >I feel >it should (this was not an invitation for socialist of communist comments >in any >way so do try and persuade me anything is better). Should wages increase? I >think so. I do not believe that wages have kept up with inflation over >the past >several years (if I am wrong please let me know) and maybe this is the >economy's >way of balancing out the wealth that has been generated over the past 10 >years. >Comments are made all the time about how there will not be a middle class >in the >next 10- 20 years. Maybe this is a way to ensure that the middle class stays >intact. > >My point is that there is a lot more money in the market than ever before, >brought on by retirement accounts. Fund managers have to do something >with the >excess cash. They are not going to put it in CDs I am sure. I think it would >be interesting to do a study on the price fluctuations and the % of households >investing and see if our PEs are so out of line but, I don't have the time. I >just don't see a pop in this "bubble" because as long as people are employed >they are going to put money in their retirement plans and forget about it. I >know my generation has no faith that social security will be there for us and >that is why I put 15% away each week. And no, I do not plan on removing >it from >the market over the long haul. Short stints...yes > >Sam > >Tim Fisher wrote: > > > I found this article fascinating. Who is Irwin Kellner? Is he an avowed > > Bear? Anyway what he has to say makes some sense to me, and echoes a lot of > > what Tom has been saying this past year or more. Does anyone else think his > > scenario is likely in the near future? > > > > > http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19991228/news/current/kellner.htx?source= > > blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 17:36:26 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner I think it was about 3 years ago, I read an article by Erick Kobren about why the S&P500 couldn't possibly go up over the next year. It was well thought out, and sent me to the hills for "value" funds to protect my investments. It took about 3 years of sub-standard performance trying various "conservative" funds before I finally gave up, and went for growth. During this time I noticed my "value" holdings went up less in good markets, and went down more in bad markets. I have now adopted WON's approach to predicting the market... don't. Watch what it does and listen closely. I feel sure my technology holdings are due a correction, just as I thought about a year ago. I'm not sure when it will occur, but you can certainly make a good arguement that it will be soon. Then again, I'll just wait and see. At 11:00 AM 12/28/99 -0800, you wrote: >I found this article fascinating. Who is Irwin Kellner? Is he an avowed >Bear? Anyway what he has to say makes some sense to me, and echoes a lot of >what Tom has been saying this past year or more. Does anyone else think his >scenario is likely in the near future? > >http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19991228/news/current/kellner.htx?source= >blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 17:42:41 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Irwin Kellner >From a long term perspective, I have wondered if the "Baby Boomers" theory of the market may hold. This theory says that we are in a long term bull market based on the increasing demand caused by all of the boomer's squirreling away investments for their retirement. The market should continue to go up while the inflows remain high. At some point, (2010, maybe 2015), the boomer's will start to pull money out for retirement. The theory is the market will then go into a fairly long term bear market as the outflows exceed inflows. This is one possible explanation for the long term bull we are in presently. What do you guys think? At 05:08 PM 12/28/99 -0500, you wrote: >Let me open myself to the firestorm that is inevitable. Call me an optimist >but, I do not feel we are going to see a major implosion of the stock market. >This bubble that everyone talks about is not ready to pop. We are in a >different time (I know everyone has heard it before) but the big difference that >I see in this market vs. previous market is the number of participants. I do >not feel that the times are different or these stocks are any different than >those in history, I just believe there is more money than ever before in the >market. And the best part of it is that it is designed to stay in the market >long term. In today's economy a large percentage of people have access to a >retirement plan through work. Albeit, most people aren't maxing theirs out like >I am but they are putting money aside for retirement. They do not look at this >money as a savings account they can cash in easily, nor do I believe they are >watching the values like we do (active investors). I know my wife only looks at >what change has happened since the last statement. It is not even real money to >her. She is not concerned with what it is worth tomorrow or next year, just >that it is worth something 10-20 years from now and history and averages are on >her side. The article you referenced even stated that 50% of the households are >in the market today. Would someone please post what the percentages were for >the past 75 years if they know. > >What I find funny is; the government wanted Americans to plan for their own >retirement and not rely on social security. Well that is exactly what we are >doing and they are complaining about it and telling us now that the market is >not the best place for our money and retirement plans. Who should we trust to >manage our retirement money? What investment vehicles should we use? A 5% CD? >No chance. Now I do believe that there is a brick wall in an economy and we may >be nearing it and maybe not. We will not be able to judge until we see or hit >it. Can we expect inflation? Sure 3% on average, why not. Should we be afraid >of inflation? I don't think so. The notion of zero inflation just does not >jive with me. Companies always try to improve their bottom line by raising the >price by 10%, this is not going to change in a capitalist society, nor do I feel >it should (this was not an invitation for socialist of communist comments in any >way so do try and persuade me anything is better). Should wages increase? I >think so. I do not believe that wages have kept up with inflation over the past >several years (if I am wrong please let me know) and maybe this is the economy's >way of balancing out the wealth that has been generated over the past 10 years. >Comments are made all the time about how there will not be a middle class in the >next 10- 20 years. Maybe this is a way to ensure that the middle class stays >intact. > >My point is that there is a lot more money in the market than ever before, >brought on by retirement accounts. Fund managers have to do something with the >excess cash. They are not going to put it in CDs I am sure. I think it would >be interesting to do a study on the price fluctuations and the % of households >investing and see if our PEs are so out of line but, I don't have the time. I >just don't see a pop in this "bubble" because as long as people are employed >they are going to put money in their retirement plans and forget about it. I >know my generation has no faith that social security will be there for us and >that is why I put 15% away each week. And no, I do not plan on removing it from >the market over the long haul. Short stints...yes > >Sam > >Tim Fisher wrote: > >> I found this article fascinating. Who is Irwin Kellner? Is he an avowed >> Bear? Anyway what he has to say makes some sense to me, and echoes a lot of >> what Tom has been saying this past year or more. Does anyone else think his >> scenario is likely in the near future? >> >> http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19991228/news/current/kellner.htx?source= >> blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo >> >> Tim Fisher >> Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites >> >> Tim@OreRockOn.com >> WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >> See naked fish and rocks! >> >> - > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 22:14:35 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] gnet - cup and handle formation? Frank, I would simply wait until GNET breaks a new high on high volume. There could certainly be a sell-off for capital gains; but it could be a waste of energy to speculate. I try and just look at the chart (of course building in market action) and see what happened. I don't know why the high has been retested twice and failed to break through. It may not be worth wondering why. Just knowing it hasn't is sufficient to say there is resistance which hasn't been easily broken. As such, it may not be worth buying until proof that the resistance has been overcome. Dave Mypiason3@aol.com wrote: > > Dave, > > I am concerned about GNET not being able to establish new highs. In looking > at the chart when it originally retested its new high it was in April right > at the internet correction and the market soon followed. > > I am concerned about this last false breakout into new highs. My question is > with the amount of shares bought at the beginning of Jan. and much of them > shares looking at a 1000% gain what percent of people would have actually > held for long term gains. > > I am wondering if there could be a sell off for taking capital gains? > Any opinions? > > Frank > > - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #781 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.