From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #792 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, January 10 2000 Volume 02 : Number 792 In this issue: [CANSLIM] MSS Re: [CANSLIM] MSS [CANSLIM] Why I sold on Monday the 3rd [CANSLIM] New Highs on Nasdaq [CANSLIM] Re: Funniest comments from a bear site [CANSLIM] A new WON website comming??? [CANSLIM] IBD Pro moves to Tradehard.com Re: [CANSLIM] A new WON website comming??? [CANSLIM] DOX [CANSLIM] Follow through day? Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day? Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2000 22:31:15 -0000 From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] MSS Last time when interest rates were rising and there was general fear MSS broke out of a nice formation (EPS 97, RS 91, group RS 83). This stock is tracing a double bottom (on a daily chart) over 3 months. It has started 4 days of a handle. It's PE is 19, which in an interest sensitive rate environment is favourable. Sales and earnings are great. However, its up/down vol ratio is 0.7. Pivot point appears to be $22. Management 20%, Funds 8%, Cap $76 mill, Timeliness A, Acc/Dist B Any thoughts? Marc - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2000 17:36:04 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MSS Hi Marc, It appears to pack a lot of its sales and earnings into the second and third qtrs (3rd ended 12/31), but I don't see why it should have seasonal variations. It also has the disadvantage of being a small cap (3.7 mil shares outstanding). Small caps have done better lately, but no assurance that will continue as the big caps try to rally. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - -----Original Message----- From: Marc Laniado To: canslim Date: Sunday, January 09, 2000 5:29 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] MSS Last time when interest rates were rising and there was general fear MSS broke out of a nice formation (EPS 97, RS 91, group RS 83). This stock is tracing a double bottom (on a daily chart) over 3 months. It has started 4 days of a handle. It's PE is 19, which in an interest sensitive rate environment is favourable. Sales and earnings are great. However, its up/down vol ratio is 0.7. Pivot point appears to be $22. Management 20%, Funds 8%, Cap $76 mill, Timeliness A, Acc/Dist B Any thoughts? Marc - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2000 15:27:56 -0800 From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] Why I sold on Monday the 3rd Johan, Thanks. This was extremely helpful for several reasons. First, your analysis shows that I need to look at indicators, see what is "really" happening, and make decisions on what is most likely to happen, not what I want to happen. Second, there are two warring sides here - bulls and bears. Don't be either, just watch and recognize which will probably emerge WITHOUT allowing fear/greed/preferences to color my perspective. Third, act based on confidence, experience and pleasure at having made some profit. Your comments are always appreciated, Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2000 20:37:58 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs on Nasdaq Members, be very careful of simply using the new highs/lows on Naz as any indicator. I just finished reviewing the list of new hi/low stocks from Friday on both NYSE and Naz. The preponderance of low priced, penny stocks with no earnings growth, often no earnings, in some cases even a decline in earnings and sales yet hitting new highs, was very evident. This market must be a stock promoter's dream! Certainly the total new highs is misleading, as the quality and breadth is simply not there. For the second week in a row, I have not added anything to my watch list, only removed potential buy candidates. My list is now about as short as it got in the worst of 1999's correction. Granted, I am focused only on small cap and micro cap stocks under $20, but I saw similar results in my full review of the DGO list, which filters out most of the low priced stocks, as well as the ones with poor earnings. Turkeys really can fly! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2000 18:24:52 -0800 (PST) From: Bob Raible Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Funniest comments from a bear site Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2000 15:28:52 -0800 (PST) From: Bob Raible | Block address Reply-to: bobr@writeme.com Subject: Re: canslim-digest V2 #791 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Add Addresses Thanks Johan! After last week's bruising I needed a good laugh. > > Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2000 23:59:07 +0100 > From: Johan Van Houtven > Subject: [CANSLIM] Funniest comments from a bear site > > I had a good chuckle when I read this. Should have posted this on > Wednesday, but couldn't. Just set your mind back to that day and > enjoy: > > >From bearfiend.com: > > - --- start of quote --- > > I was amused by the collective wisdom doled out by the financial > media on > Tuesday. From Reuters to CNBC, you read or heard the same platitudes > over > and over. Here are twelve of them off the top of my head: ===== Bob Raible Sunny San Jose,CA __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2000 22:26:13 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: [CANSLIM] A new WON website comming??? I was perusing through the Los Angeles Times employment section Sun. and saw an ad for employment that caught my eye: Wm. O'neal Company is looking for web programmers for a new e-commerce website. Mentioned something about it being built from scratch. Maybe revamping the whole DG online thing or ??? Anyone hear of anything? - -Bill Triffet - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2000 11:48:35 -0500 From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Pro moves to Tradehard.com Just received this by email from Tradehard.com: "Saturday, Jan. 15: Loren Fleckenstein, our new stocks editor and former Investor's Business Daily stocks columnist, will begin a series of Saturday educational pieces." Since Kevin Marder moved over to Tradehard and became their editor-in-chief, Tradehard has become much more CANSLIM-oriented: 1) Marder's daily column 2) Kuhn's twice-weekly column 3) Two outstanding recent interviews with WON lieutenants Kacher and Morales. 4) Weekend book review of WON's recent "24 Lessons" 5) Now Fleckenstein's educational series. If he has become the new Stocks Editor as reported, I have to think that a more frequent column cannot be far off. Of the limited number of IBD "Investor's Corner" columnists, Fleckenstein was the most prolific and the most prominent. His articles even stirred up some discussion and debate in our group back in 1998. Now I have no business connection with Tradehard (other than as a new subscriber) but frankly this site is becoming more and more valuable. I understand that it has always been useful for short-term traders, but it is now obviously catering to the intermediate-term trader as well. (Buy-and-holders though need not apply.) Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2000 13:44:07 -0500 From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A new WON website comming??? Hi Bill, We can only hope. The Wall Street Journal and other prominent financial newspapers are online in a big way, but considering that IBD prides itself on technology coverage, the New America page, and computerized stock ratings, well its web site is pathetic. DG online needs huge upgrading as well. If it were interactive, more searchable, had better screening, and offered technical analysis, it would make my life a lot simpler, and it could eliminate most of the grab-bag of other services that I currently pay for. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Bill Triffet wrote: > I was perusing through the Los Angeles Times employment section Sun. and saw > an ad for employment that caught my eye: > > Wm. O'neal Company is looking for web programmers for a new e-commerce > website. Mentioned something about it being built from scratch. > > Maybe revamping the whole DG online thing or ??? Anyone hear of anything? > > -Bill Triffet > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2000 20:05:26 -0000 From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] DOX DOX gapped up on big vol from its base. It's extended from the base but not from the high - is anyone buying this one! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2000 13:08:32 -0800 (PST) From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow through day? It's 4pm and I just got the sinking feeling that we had a follow through day today. It will be a few hours before i get to look at my data but can anyone comment on M? Ciao, rolatzi __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 10 Jan 2000 13:54:35 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day? The NYA and DJI were not up even close to 1%. Now whether they went into a correction in the first place is debatable... On 01:08 PM 1/10/00 , rolatzi Said: >It's 4pm and I just got the sinking feeling that we had a follow >through day today. It will be a few hours before i get to look >at my data but can anyone comment on M? > >Ciao, >rolatzi >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. >http://im.yahoo.com > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2000 18:41:47 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day? At 01:54 PM 1/10/00 -0800, Tim wrote: >The NYA and DJI were not up even close to 1%. Now whether they went into a >correction in the first place is debatable... > >On 01:08 PM 1/10/00 , rolatzi Said: > >>It's 4pm and I just got the sinking feeling that we had a follow >>through day today. It will be a few hours before i get to look >>at my data but can anyone comment on M? I agree with Tim. Although, the activity looked climactic. And there were also 4 days of recent distribution by my count. The NAS quickly pulled back to close down about 11%. So we have at most one Canslim style sell signal - - on either 01/03 or 01/04 (WON says sell 25% starting with weakest holdings first). Not sure we now need a buy signal exactly, with indexes hitting new highs. NAS is on second day of rally. Shouldn't a followthrough be on day 3-10 of an advance? If so we may not have one (but as Tim implied above: I'm not sure we need one). In my earlier "M" post I said I expected maybe a 10% correction (if it seems to anyone that my post was extremely bearish, re-read it and see if it still does - it was not meant to be especially bearish, just calling for a short correction). I then expected the bull to continue "before too long". I was both right and wrong. Right: 10% "correction"??? (11% in 3 days), and bull seems to have continued. Wrong: I expected a few weeks of sideways motion somewhere around NAS 3750 (although not specificly stated in my post) before we went on to new highs. Who knows, this could still be a double top forming or we may be on to another leg up, or maybe just forming a ledge (10% wide sideways pattern at a new high) .... at any rate I will try to respond appropriately to whatever the market says. In my earlier "M" post, I divided my comments between "mostly fact" and "opinion". Someone wrote me privately to say that it was a great post, IF I left out the "opinion". I agree, he was right (and no it was not Dave Cameron ;^) ). I am afraid that sometimes people here on the list listen and are influenced too much to opinions from Tom, Johan, myself and others on the list. I change my opinion and take action quite quickly: I try to move, as O'Neil says, "before things are completely obvious". I have tried to prevent myself from posting lately for just that reason, but as Johan says, it can be hard to resist. Johan is a trader who timed a quick pullback of the market. He may have gone 100% cash on last Monday, 100% margin on Friday and be back to 100% cash today. With my trading account, I am doing more or less the same thing (trading based on market signals and/or signals from individual stocks). With my Canslim investment account, I am staying invested unless I see sell signals from my stocks (based on O'Neils selling "rules") or the market seems headed into a protracted decline. I noticed that had I held my model accounts through the pullback in September-October 1999, I would have done far better than I did trading in and out of the market. But I also noticed that I was not psychologically ready to deal with the drawdowns presented with only 4 or 5 stocks. Therefore I have gone to holding 20+ stocks in my investment account (even that is gut wrenching at times such as last week). Bottom line: M "looks" powerful the last two days and there was an undercurrent of strength with A/D line and New Highs/New Lows, even during the pullback (which feels more like a V shaped shakeout than a correction at this point). OTOH, if there is a rally failure at this point, it will be 10 or 12% south of here by definition. Best Regards, Craig @^) PS. I am going back to self-enforced lurking. Hope some of this has been useful. PPS. WARNING, there is lots of opinion interspersed in the above comments, which may or may not be correct. There are no absolute gurus in this business, except yourself - even O'Neil was calling for a bear market in October, just before the market exploded to the upside. I'll bet he changed his opinion in a half beat on October 28th. - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #792 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.