From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #814 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, February 3 2000 Volume 02 : Number 814 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? [CANSLIM] FW: Now Trade Online for as low as $14.95! (21909029::::B7603396:56096784:) Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Re: [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] Quoting WON...do you transcribe or paste? Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? Re: [CANSLIM] M [CANSLIM] Bear Market here we are (?!?!) Re: [CANSLIM] M ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2000 17:21:08 -0500 From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? Interesting piece, Tom. I have been wondering for some time why the Japanese markets had rallied so much last year in the absence of necessary reforms. I think that it had more to do with liquidity and foreign investment than anything more fundamental. Walter Stock Oakville Tom Worley wrote: > Which comes first, fiscal reform, or economic recovery? > > STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update > 2 February 2000 > > Japan Borrows From Banks To Float Economy > > Summary > > Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi said Jan. 28 that his > country > would forgo fiscal reforms until the economy stabilizes. On > the > same day, the Japanese government announced it would begin > borrowing money directly from Japanese banks to cover budget > shortfalls. By refusing to implement deep, painful and > necessary > reforms - and instead borrowing from domestic banks to fund > additional unworkable government "stimulus packages"- Japan > has > sentenced itself to a descending spiral of economic malaise. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 22:25:03 -0800 From: "mikelu" Subject: [CANSLIM] FW: Now Trade Online for as low as $14.95! (21909029::::B7603396:56096784:) FYI - -----Original Message----- From: Charles Schwab and Co., Inc. [mailto:bes.prod@Schwab.com] Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2000 5:04 PM To: mikelu@iname.com Subject: Now Trade Online for as low as $14.95! (21909029::::B7603396:56096784:) Good News for active traders--equity trades as low as $14.95. 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(0100-4146) NOTICE: All e-mail sent to or from the Charles Schwab corporate e-mail system may be retained, monitored and/or reviewed by Schwab personnel. - ---------------------------------------------------------------- E - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2000 02:03:12 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? OK, so I'll change the question slightly. Which came first, liquidity from foreign investment, or all the hype about how the Japanese economy was recovering even as its recession deepened for several more quarters? A lot of that foreign investment was attracted by talk of major reforms, in the banking industry especially. And to date essentially that's all it's been, talk. Can this recovery survive a collapse of the banking system akin to the savings and loan disaster in the USA a decade or so ago? And if the Japanese banking system collapses, will it only take Japan with it? or Asia? or the globe? One of the major factors that helped extend the legs on the US bull mkt was the investment by foreign sources, a considerable portion from Japan. Now a lot of that money has been pouring into Japanese stocks, strengthening the yen, and hurting their export business. Where does it go if Japan falters? Europe? LATAM? USA? Wherever it goes, that market will get a major boost. The just raised Fed rates, and the relative safety of the US Treasuries, makes them awfully attractive to conservative money. If the Feds keep raising, and the economic reports out this morning certainly suggest that, then a point will come where the money flow into US Treasuries, and probably equities as well, will see a floodtide change. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Walter Stock To: Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2000 5:21 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? Interesting piece, Tom. I have been wondering for some time why the Japanese markets had rallied so much last year in the absence of necessary reforms. I think that it had more to do with liquidity and foreign investment than anything more fundamental. Walter Stock Oakville Tom Worley wrote: > Which comes first, fiscal reform, or economic recovery? > > STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update > 2 February 2000 > > Japan Borrows From Banks To Float Economy > > Summary > > Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi said Jan. 28 that his > country > would forgo fiscal reforms until the economy stabilizes. On > the > same day, the Japanese government announced it would begin > borrowing money directly from Japanese banks to cover budget > shortfalls. By refusing to implement deep, painful and > necessary > reforms - and instead borrowing from domestic banks to fund > additional unworkable government "stimulus packages"- Japan > has > sentenced itself to a descending spiral of economic malaise. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > - - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2000 08:00:01 -0700 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2000 10:44:29 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M I can certainly see where you are comming from. And I think the answer is: If your stocks are still acting right, you could still be 100% invested here, I you choose to. CANSLIM pro's like Kevin Marder et al from tradingmarkets.com all seem to think that the intermediate term speculator (CANSLIMer) should be practically 100% cash now. One thing is absolutely certain: Volatility is extreme nowadays. You have 2 days where the market seems to fall apart, shouting "Abandon all hope." Only to come back strong the next day. At 06:13 PM 01-02-00 -0700, you wrote: >Am I alone in watching the market for a SELL signal? I see all these >messages about watching for a follow-through day, but we haven't had 4 or 5 >distributions days in a week or two, I think we have 2 on the NASDAQ. I do >agree this has been cause for concern, but I don't believe the action has >been such that a follow-through day is needed. The market has been giving >some very mixed signals, and is somewhat down for January (5% for S&P, 4% >for NAS100). I haven't seen any confirmation in IBD of this being a >downtrend, other than maybe a short term correction. > >I'm still counting Distribution Days and (most importantly), watching my >stocks closely. At this point I am fully invested, with neither of my Jan >purchases closing off 8%. Am I missing something, or are the M comments >starting to tend towards a "day-trading" market analysis instead of a >CANSLIM intermediate term view? > > >- > > - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2000 10:33:43 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quoting WON...do you transcribe or paste? http://ibd.infostreet.com/won/ At 06:45 PM 01-02-00 -0800, you wrote: >trivial question, but do you have a copy of HTMMIS online, on your computer, or do >you actually type out these quotations? If you have it electronically, would you >mind sharing the URL or emailing the document? > >Thanks, >Jim the short-term bear - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2000 13:08:06 -0500 From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? I watched the Japanese market more closely than usual last year and you are right, there was indeed a lot of hype about how their economy was recovering. Right around the time of the beginning of the turnaround on the Nikkei there had been an unexpected uptick in the Japanese GDP figures, and in the US some elderly and influential investment gurus (the Barton Biggs/Barron's Roundtable types) were busy wailing about how the US market was a bubble waiting to burst, how Japan was "undervalued", and how they were moving their dollars to the land of the rising sun. All of this fed on itself and the Nikkei rose, largely on the basis of foreign liquidity inflows. So there was a lot of talk as you mention, and not much walk underneath, which brings us back to the chicken and egg. What happens if the foreign funds start to flow out of the Japanese market in a big way? Well Japan is a nation of savers, unlike us North Americans, and much of these savings are held in low interest deposits, and safely outside of the wobbly Japanese banks. With the recent arrival of the Internet and online brokers in Japan, it will be interesting to see if some of this money starts to find its way into the Japanese market in upcoming years. Alternatively, will the Japanese still be content with savings accounts that pay microscopic interest rates over the next decade, just as they were in the past one? If they are, that bodes ill for the Nikkei and for Japan. It's only bad for the US if the Japanese need to start repatriating some of their massive US Treasury holdings. Ironically, the higher US interest rates go, and the stronger the dollar, the less likely this is to happen. All of the above is merely my opinion, and not related much to Canslim, but Tom, I just couldn't resist the opportunity you gave me to get back to my roots in Economics. ;-) Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Tom Worley wrote: > OK, so I'll change the question slightly. Which came first, > liquidity from foreign investment, or all the hype about how > the Japanese economy was recovering even as its recession > deepened for several more quarters? A lot of that foreign > investment was attracted by talk of major reforms, in the > banking industry especially. And to date essentially that's > all it's been, talk. Can this recovery survive a collapse of > the banking system akin to the savings and loan disaster in > the USA a decade or so ago? And if the Japanese banking > system collapses, will it only take Japan with it? or Asia? > or the globe? One of the major factors that helped extend > the legs on the US bull mkt was the investment by foreign > sources, a considerable portion from Japan. Now a lot of > that money has been pouring into Japanese stocks, > strengthening the yen, and hurting their export business. > Where does it go if Japan falters? Europe? LATAM? USA? > Wherever it goes, that market will get a major boost. > > The just raised Fed rates, and the relative safety of the US > Treasuries, makes them awfully attractive to conservative > money. If the Feds keep raising, and the economic reports > out this morning certainly suggest that, then a point will > come where the money flow into US Treasuries, and probably > equities as well, will see a floodtide change. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Walter Stock > To: > Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2000 5:21 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? > > Interesting piece, Tom. I have been wondering for some > time why the Japanese markets had rallied so much last > year in the absence of necessary reforms. I think that it > had more to do with liquidity and foreign investment than > anything more fundamental. > > Walter Stock > Oakville > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Which comes first, fiscal reform, or economic recovery? > > > > STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update > > 2 February 2000 > > > > Japan Borrows From Banks To Float Economy > > > > Summary > > > > Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi said Jan. 28 that his > > country > > would forgo fiscal reforms until the economy stabilizes. > On > > the > > same day, the Japanese government announced it would begin > > borrowing money directly from Japanese banks to cover > budget > > shortfalls. By refusing to implement deep, painful and > > necessary > > reforms - and instead borrowing from domestic banks to > fund > > additional unworkable government "stimulus packages"- > Japan > > has > > sentenced itself to a descending spiral of economic > malaise. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > - > > - > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2000 13:25:16 -0800 (PST) From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Today's rally in the NAZDAQ seemed like a follow through. Anindo > > I can certainly see where you are comming from. And I think the answer is: > If your stocks are still acting right, you could still be 100% invested > here, I you choose to. > > CANSLIM pro's like Kevin Marder et al from tradingmarkets.com all seem to > think that the intermediate term speculator (CANSLIMer) should be > practically 100% cash now. > > One thing is absolutely certain: Volatility is extreme nowadays. You have 2 > days where the market seems to fall apart, shouting "Abandon all hope." > Only to come back strong the next day. > > At 06:13 PM 01-02-00 -0700, you wrote: > >Am I alone in watching the market for a SELL signal? I see all these > >messages about watching for a follow-through day, but we haven't had 4 or 5 > >distributions days in a week or two, I think we have 2 on the NASDAQ. I do > >agree this has been cause for concern, but I don't believe the action has > >been such that a follow-through day is needed. The market has been giving > >some very mixed signals, and is somewhat down for January (5% for S&P, 4% > >for NAS100). I haven't seen any confirmation in IBD of this being a > >downtrend, other than maybe a short term correction. > > > >I'm still counting Distribution Days and (most importantly), watching my > >stocks closely. At this point I am fully invested, with neither of my Jan > >purchases closing off 8%. Am I missing something, or are the M comments > >starting to tend towards a "day-trading" market analysis instead of a > >CANSLIM intermediate term view? > > > > > >- > > > > > > -- Johan > > > > - > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: 1 Feb 2000 13:34:34 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Bear Market here we are (?!?!) I call hooey on the following. Typical how the headline leads one to believe that the charts of the market indices (they only mention the NASDAQ and NAS100) are pointing to an imminent major correction. I see a strong bounce off support (you called it Craig!) to whatever I flame-baitingly suggested earlier in the week (4850?). Below it sounds like someone is heavily short and getting nervous... P.S. If the foregoing sounds like "rah rah raging bull" to you then you're reading it right. >Thursday February 3, 3:41 pm Eastern Time > >Technical analysts see further fall > >By K.L. Roberts > >NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Technical analysts remain convinced Wall >Street is stuck in a bear cycle despite the recent bounce back in major >U.S. stock indexes following a pair of sharp losses at the beginning and >end of last month, > >``Everything about the (technical) scoreboard, with the exception of >mutual-fund flows, reflects an ongoing bear market still in force for most >stocks,'' said Gail Dudack, Warburg Dillon Read's chief investment strategist. > >These chartists, or analysts who attempt to forecast market moves based on >technical factors like trading volume and price studies, say a variety of >indicators point to a continued downswing in U.S. equities. > >And it is the dominance of technology stocks in market rallies is most >bothersome, they note. > >``The most troubling thing is that you have only one sector of the market >that is representing true leadership and it's technology that's gone >hyperbolic,'' said Ed Nicoski, technical analyst at Piper Jaffray. ``It >can't continue at this rate. You have to development new leadership, or >correct in technology, to get a healthy start again.'' > >Top tech stocks have indeed fueled the rise in Wall Street's indices. The >Nasdaq composite index (^IXIC - news), driven by technology issues, posted >unprecedented gains last year and has rebounded this week from its second >10 percent drop of 2000. > >The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX - news) index of top stocks has climbed, normally in >tandem with the composite, coming within 62 points of its all-time high on >Thursday. > >The composite, which is weighted by market capitalization, is now at a >level that is an astounding 215 times earnings over the last 12 months, >according to analysts. The Nasdaq 100 is at 118 times earnings, they say. > >``There is no new economy that can justify these type of multiples,'' said >Alan Newman, technical analyst at H.D. Brous & Co., about tech stocks. > >Meanwhile, other sectors including former leaders have taken a backseat, >languishing as investors continue to push more money into high-flyers. >Financial stocks, including banks and brokerages, are among the most >beaten back. > >The New York Stock Exchange Financial index has fallen 3.54 percent since >the start of the year and the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI >- news) has lost 4.3 percent. And stocks in the Dow continue to trade at >earnings multiples as low as 6.9 and more often around 30. > >But beyond concerns about having just one sector leading the Street, >technical analysts note that the market's breadth continues to be solidly >negative. The number of stocks declining has easily outpaced advancing >issues despite isolated days of more winners than losers. > >Warburg's Dudack said the cumulative Advance/Decline line is now at its >lowest level in four and a half years. Her reading of the specialist short >sell ratio hit 47.5 percent this week - still above the 45 percent level >required for a negative reading. > >That measure is a ratio of the amount of stock sold short by New York >Stock Exchange specialists to total short selling. It signals whether the >specialist, or stock exchange member whose job is to ensure the orderly >flow of a portfolio of stocks, is more or less bearish on the outlook for >prices than other NYSE members and the public. > >Short selling, or selling a stock that is borrowed with the hope of buying >it back later at a lower price, is considered a sign that investors think >prices will fall. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2000 17:51:28 -0500 From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Hi Anindo, Kevin Marder got bullish this afternoon. This is from his column at TradingMarkets.com, written just after the market closed : "Egged on by the usual suspects, the Nasdaq bagged a convincing follow-through Thursday, adding to the prior day's scrap of evidence that the worst is over. The best confirmation of a general market bottom that I know of, the O'Neil follow-through day concept, kicked in on the Nasdaq, with the Comp walking away with a 3.4% gain on an 11% rise in volume." Greg Kuhn, a canslim style hedge fund manager who writes for the same site remained bearish in his column entitled "Where's the Beef?" To be fair, his biggest problem with the market on Tuesday and Wednesday was the lack of volume on the rise, and even though his column appeared today, it was written in the morning before today's bigger volume was a certainty. As for me, I am not sure about this market at all. Still, I am sniffing around some of the stocks in the wireless arena and am looking to take on a position or two tomorrow. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Anindo Majumdar wrote: > Today's rally in the NAZDAQ seemed like a follow through. > > Anindo > > > > I can certainly see where you are comming from. And I think the answer is: > > If your stocks are still acting right, you could still be 100% invested > > here, I you choose to. > > > > CANSLIM pro's like Kevin Marder et al from tradingmarkets.com all seem to > > think that the intermediate term speculator (CANSLIMer) should be > > practically 100% cash now. > > > > One thing is absolutely certain: Volatility is extreme nowadays. You have 2 > > days where the market seems to fall apart, shouting "Abandon all hope." > > Only to come back strong the next day. > > > > At 06:13 PM 01-02-00 -0700, you wrote: > > >Am I alone in watching the market for a SELL signal? I see all these > > >messages about watching for a follow-through day, but we haven't had 4 or 5 > > >distributions days in a week or two, I think we have 2 on the NASDAQ. I do > > >agree this has been cause for concern, but I don't believe the action has > > >been such that a follow-through day is needed. The market has been giving > > >some very mixed signals, and is somewhat down for January (5% for S&P, 4% > > >for NAS100). I haven't seen any confirmation in IBD of this being a > > >downtrend, other than maybe a short term correction. > > > > > >I'm still counting Distribution Days and (most importantly), watching my > > >stocks closely. At this point I am fully invested, with neither of my Jan > > >purchases closing off 8%. Am I missing something, or are the M comments > > >starting to tend towards a "day-trading" market analysis instead of a > > >CANSLIM intermediate term view? > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > -- Johan > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #814 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.