From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #836 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, February 29 2000 Volume 02 : Number 836 In this issue: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Re: trends/O'Neil [CANSLIM] GTNR Re: [CANSLIM] GTNR [CANSLIM] Euro crashes [CANSLIM] Ugly index charts Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim Research Re: [CANSLIM] watchlist sites [CANSLIM] Re. When To Hold & When To Fold Re: [CANSLIM] GTNR Re: [CANSLIM] watchlist sites ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2000 19:23:58 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Re: trends/O'Neil This was on another mailing list, thought the Canslimers here might enjoy this short history - - ------- Forwarded message follows ------- Date forwarded: Sun, 27 Feb 2000 15:28:42 -0800 From: jparris@gte.net Date sent: Sun, 27 Feb 2000 15:28:20 -0800 To: frwd@post.com Copies to: "List, Omega" Subject: Re: trends/O'Neil Forwarded by: omega-list@eskimo.com I have seen Bill O'Neil mentioned a number of times on this list. I don't do EL so I can't contribute anything there. I do know something about Bill O'Neil, so here is some info that may give some incite to those of you who are interested in Bill and his systems. Bill originally discovered the "cup and handle (originally saucer)" formation in the late 60s. It was a pattern that repeated frequently in the '67-'68 bull market. Bill had help from a top market technician named Chet Pado and a super tape reader named Don George. Chet had been the (closet) TA at Fidelity and was Jerry Tsai's (for you old timers) right hand man. Don George had been a welder at Lockheed before before he began making his living off the ponies, and, eventually, the stock market. He had a knack ! The discovery of the "cup & handle" was probably a collaborative effort. CANSLIM, on the other hand, came pretty much from Bill alone. From his market observations and from the ideas of some of history's great traders (i.e.. Livermore, Loeb, Baruch). Bill is a great reader and distiller of ideas. In 1967 the O'Neil Fund was the top performing fund in the country - +116.3 % barely edging out Fred Carr and the Enterprise Fund. At the top of the market in 1968 Wm. O'Neil + Co. was on top of the world. Bill was one of the highly successful young "gunslingers" of the '60s. Money was pouring into his individual and institutional accounts as well as several mutual funds he managed. To make a long story short, the 2 phase 1969-1974 bear market hit. Bill was never able to make any money on the short side. In fact every time the market hit a short term selling climax, Bill thought the bear market was over and began buying the stocks which were breaking out, only to be stopped out quickly. By the time the market hit it's final low in 1974 Bill had lost nearly all of his accounts and was, basically, out of the management business and in the publishing business with his chart services. During the 2 major down legs of this very, very long bear market, neither "cups & handles" nor CANSLIM worked. Nothing worked on the long side. Keep in mind that these are only bull market strategies. Much to Bill's credit he stayed alive and survived to play another day. He is an amazing guy. A great innovator and no one is a better stock picker. Mostly though, he does NOT give up. I would think that his books and ideas should be at the top of any new traders reading list. Jim ____________ Brian Massey wrote: > "Cup with Handle formations is a new" > > New? How new? Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Most recent > example of when it doesn't is PFE earlier this year. The crowd was touting > a picture perfect cup and handle formation and it totally failed. When they > do work though they are explosive in my experience. As for the newness of > this pattern it can't be that new because William O' Niel wrote about it in > his original book and he had been using it for years. And where did he get > it from. > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@bellatlantic.net] > > Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 10:41 AM > > To: JMMain1000@aol.com; network@networksystems.com; > > omega-list@eskimo.com > > Subject: RE: Re[4]: trends > > > > > > Cup with Handle formations is a new retracement concept that supposedly > > works.... > > never backtested it though. > > End of forwarded message ------- - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2000 18:44:26 -0800 From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] GTNR Tom, You covered the fundamentals enough that I really can't add much. Why do you call the chart sloppy? Stock stays close to its 50 MA, even with more down movements than up. Friday's increase was on substantially high volume, in fact, it hit an all-time high. The question for me is: Can it sustain the 17-11/16 price? Will probably go down following the pattern of the past, so I'd put a buy at its support level of just under 15, same as you. Mary Nice pick, Ricardo, I am adding it to my watch list. Chart shows me a long, but highly volatile, base which is not that unusual with small caps. Revenue growth may have slowed somewhat, but third qtr earnings alone will put it ahead of all of last year. Here's the data: RS 92, EPS 76, SMR, A/D, and Timeliness are all an "A", earnings growth year to year for the past 4 qtrs is from +40% to +100%, revenue growth is +20% to +41%. Management owns 27% of the 8.1 mio shares outstanding, funds own 5% of the float, GRS (Telecom equip) is 99, up down ratio is 1.9, debt is 5%, ROE is 37%. Because of the sloppy chart formation, it's tough to find a pivot point/entry. My gut tells me just buying under 15 for a long term hold would make sense. I welcome group review/comment on this. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 00:22:48 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GTNR I call the chart sloppy due the increased volatility compared to past periods. Look, for example, at the August to October period, and how smooth the chart trend is compared to the present. It's much easier to see where it's going back then. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Mary Keener To: Sent: Sunday, February 27, 2000 9:44 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] GTNR Tom, You covered the fundamentals enough that I really can't add much. Why do you call the chart sloppy? Stock stays close to its 50 MA, even with more down movements than up. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 00:38:39 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Euro crashes The blistering crash of the Euro (down to 0.9550 as I write this) does not speak well for European economic stability in coming days and weeks. It will be interesting to see how the European markets respond in a few hours. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 01:14:52 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Ugly index charts Had some time tonight to review the indexes, was surprised at just how bad the DOW 30, TRANS, NYSE Finance, NYSE Composite, and S&P500 are looking. Most are either poised to undercut their Oct lows, or have already done so. The only decent major indices that still look good are the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000, which doesn't bode well for the short term or even longer term. Technology alone cannot drive this market. I had already switched my 401 contributions to 50% cash, 25% each mid cap and small cap. I am now looking for an exit point (should have done this at the same time) for liquidating my large cap holding into cash as well. Should we get three or four consecutive days up on the DOW/NYSE, it will be gone (assuming I have the time to notice, and act). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 00:33:47 -0800 From: Jesus Canal Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim Research > Are there any interenet resources for screening and researching CANSLIM > stocks? So far I have not been able to find sites which would have earnigs > history for 5 years and institutional position trends. Check out http://www.stockmaster.com Enter a symbol and select Earnings from the pull down menu. You'll find its quarterly EPS numbers for the last 7 years. Jesus - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 20:26:56 +0700 From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] watchlist sites John, Thanks very much. This is a very nice piece of software. The price is right too! Peter John Lynch wrote: > You might want to try Medved's QuoteTracker in conjunction with Datek. > > This is a free tool that will use quotes from a number of sources including > Datek's Streamer. It lets you store buy prices, high and low alerts and do > intra-day graphs. > > Another nice feature is that when you bring up the Island order book it > gives you a weighting for buy and sell pressure. > > Its at www.quotetracker.com > > Regards, John > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Peter D. Christiansen" > To: > Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2000 11:27 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] watchlist sites > > Hi Hugh, > > Thanks for the response. > > I found that if you register with www.datek.com you can set up real time > streaming watch lists with price and volume alerts. Pretty cool. > > Hugh Fader wrote: > > > Peter, > > > > I just did a search and found a couple of interesting sites. > > > > Quicken.com allows you to set up alerts based upon a number of events > > including volume. I'm not sure from the description whether it is delayed > > real time or end-of-day volume though. Check out > > http://quicken.webcrawler.com/investments/alerts/help. > > > > The other site is Stock Alerts at http://www.stock-alerts.com. This site > > will email you an alert when your stock passes through a specified price. > > For a fee it will send the alert to your pager. It looks like if you have > a > > text pager, you could have the alerts emailed to you pager without paying > > the fee. > > > > Hugh > > > > "Peter D. Christiansen" wrote: > > > > > I'm looking for web sites that offer free (preferably) tracking of watch > > > lists. It can be delayed, but I want to have the ability to set alarms > > > for price movement and volume levels. Yahoo Quotes allows you to set > > > price alarms, but not volume. Anyone have any suggestions? > > > > > > -- > > > Peter D Christiansen > > > Chiang Mai, > > > Thailand > > > > > > <*> "[On three of the rules governing the mechanics of compromise] 1. In > > > any conflict between two men (or two groups) who hold the same basic > > > principles, it is the more consistent one who wins. 2. In any > > > collaboration between two men (or two groups) who hold different basic > > > principles, it is the more evil or irrational one who wins. 3. When > > > opposite basic principles are clearly and openly defined, it works to > > > the advantage of the rational side; when they are not clearly defined, > > > but are hidden or evaded, it works to the advantage of the irrational > > > side." -- "The Anatomy of Compromise," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> > > > > > > - > > > > - > > -- > Peter D Christiansen > Chiang Mai, > Thailand > > <*> This year will go down in history. For the first time, a civilized > nation > has full gun registration! Our streets will be safer, our police more > efficient, and the world will follow our lead into the future! -- Adolf > Hitler, > 1935 <*> > > - > > - - -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> Those who would give up essential Liberty to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. -- Benjamin Franklin, 1759 <*> - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 09:03:53 EST From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. When To Hold & When To Fold Mary and Earl: The 2/25 IBD front page has an article that aids in determining when to sell. I'm sorry-I'd scan in the entire article, but I have no scanner. The crux is that a stock rises in stages-and it bases after each stage. Generally, 4th stage BO's (breakouts) will fail, and 50-60% of 3rd stage BO's fail. The stock eventually might rise again-but only after "a sizeable correction, which is usually caused by a downturn in the general market." As you can see from the above paragraph, the IBD article's dictum doesn't apply to ALL stocks (and it makes one wonder if CANSLIM stocks have a rule of their own);however, I thought I'd mention it. It might prove useful in reaching selling decisions. jans (jansi1aug1@aol.com) - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 10:23:35 -0500 From: "david lawson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GTNR GTNR finished a 14-week base friday, notching a new high as volume quadrupled. The Salt Lake city-based company is a member of the Telecommunications Equip. industry group.Going into Friday,the group held the No.2 spot on IBD's Industry Group ranking with a 54.3% return since Jan. 1. The communications co.'s product and service mix includes conferencing products,a nationwide calling service and remote facilities management. Sales growth has been rising for the last 3 quarters.Sales were up 41% in the fiscal 2nd Q ended Dec.Earnings were up 100% during the same period.Analysts expect 3rd Q earnings to be 71% higher than the yr. before. IBD stocks in the news 2/28/00. Ari - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Monday, February 28, 2000 12:22 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GTNR > I call the chart sloppy due the increased volatility > compared to past periods. Look, for example, at the August > to October period, and how smooth the chart trend is > compared to the present. It's much easier to see where it's > going back then. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Mary Keener > To: > Sent: Sunday, February 27, 2000 9:44 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] GTNR > > > Tom, > > You covered the fundamentals enough that I > really can't add much. > > Why do you call the chart sloppy? Stock stays > close to its 50 MA, even with more down movements > than up. > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: 29 Feb 2000 06:58:26 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] watchlist sites I tried this and it doesn't work with my Schwab account. I believe someone had posted it before and said they thought it did. Really too bad, it looks very useful. At 11:08 AM 2/27/00 +1300, you wrote: >You might want to try Medved's QuoteTracker in conjunction with Datek. > >This is a free tool that will use quotes from a number of sources including >Datek's Streamer. It lets you store buy prices, high and low alerts and do >intra-day graphs. > >Another nice feature is that when you bring up the Island order book it >gives you a weighting for buy and sell pressure. > >Its at www.quotetracker.com > >Regards, John > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Peter D. Christiansen" >To: >Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2000 11:27 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] watchlist sites > >Hi Hugh, > >Thanks for the response. > >I found that if you register with www.datek.com you can set up real time >streaming watch lists with price and volume alerts. Pretty cool. > >Hugh Fader wrote: > > > Peter, > > > > I just did a search and found a couple of interesting sites. > > > > Quicken.com allows you to set up alerts based upon a number of events > > including volume. I'm not sure from the description whether it is delayed > > real time or end-of-day volume though. Check out > > http://quicken.webcrawler.com/investments/alerts/help. > > > > The other site is Stock Alerts at http://www.stock-alerts.com. This site > > will email you an alert when your stock passes through a specified price. > > For a fee it will send the alert to your pager. It looks like if you have >a > > text pager, you could have the alerts emailed to you pager without paying > > the fee. > > > > Hugh > > > > "Peter D. Christiansen" wrote: > > > > > I'm looking for web sites that offer free (preferably) tracking of watch > > > lists. It can be delayed, but I want to have the ability to set alarms > > > for price movement and volume levels. Yahoo Quotes allows you to set > > > price alarms, but not volume. Anyone have any suggestions? > > > > > > -- > > > Peter D Christiansen > > > Chiang Mai, > > > Thailand > > > > > > <*> "[On three of the rules governing the mechanics of compromise] 1. In > > > any conflict between two men (or two groups) who hold the same basic > > > principles, it is the more consistent one who wins. 2. In any > > > collaboration between two men (or two groups) who hold different basic > > > principles, it is the more evil or irrational one who wins. 3. When > > > opposite basic principles are clearly and openly defined, it works to > > > the advantage of the rational side; when they are not clearly defined, > > > but are hidden or evaded, it works to the advantage of the irrational > > > side." -- "The Anatomy of Compromise," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> > > > > > > - > > > > - > >-- >Peter D Christiansen >Chiang Mai, >Thailand > ><*> This year will go down in history. For the first time, a civilized >nation >has full gun registration! Our streets will be safer, our police more >efficient, and the world will follow our lead into the future! -- Adolf >Hitler, >1935 <*> > >- > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #836 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.