From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #863 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, April 2 2000 Volume 02 : Number 863 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription [CANSLIM] Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Survey Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: inverted yield curve Re: [CANSLIM] Re: inverted yield curve Re: [CANSLIM] Re:AMK [CANSLIM] GIL [CANSLIM] WON on selling short [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group [CANSLIM] Intro: Travis Bolster ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2000 08:00:00 -0700 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription This is a twice monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are three remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group. 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. Or, 3) You can setup customized filters on your own mail client to sort the incoming canslim messages to its own folder. If you wish to modify your canslim subscription, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2000 08:56:45 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: > The DOW 30 has made a considerable recovery over the past 3 > weeks, now needs to break 11,429 for any further advance > towards a new high. It does seem to be showing greater internal strength lately. Even yesterday, on a down day, the advances were almost two to one over decliners, and more highs than new lows. I'm wondering if we may be seeing a shift towards stocks that represent more value in terms of how much you have to pay for earnings. After all, stocks like PMCS, BRCD, BRCM, VRTS, etc., have doubled and tripled in a few months, and eventually I think those companies stock prices have to approach a growth rate that more nearly matches their own earnings growth rates, which may mean underperforming for a while to average things out. (but I'm usually wrong when I try to figure out what the market might do) I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may be misquoting a bit here. Professor Tom, if you are up to it, care to comment on the inverted yield curve? I vaguely remember that it is considered a forerunner of a recession, the idea being something like - we have inflation so short term rates go up, but looking out further, an economic slowdown seems to be in the cards, reducing inflationary pressures, so longer term bonds will have yields under the short term t bills. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 01 Apr 2000 08:58:42 -0800 From: "Catherine M. Wilson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Patrick Wahl wrote: > I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize > winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said > there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech > stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool > theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to > unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may > be misquoting a bit here. I saw the interview, and my perception was that he was talking about Internet stocks with enormous valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. I think, however, that many people wouldn't have picked up that he was talking about this particular group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which isn't what he was talking about at all. Kit - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 01 Apr 2000 10:26:31 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Survey At 08:43 AM 4/1/00 -0600, you wrote: >This is a part of doctoral dissertation. >This study focuses on people who are familiar with Internet stock trading >like you. >Could you answer the question and reply to me as soon as possible? >I appreciate your cooperation. > >---- > >If you have bought products over the Internet, could you check what kinds of >products or services you have transacted? (Please check as many as you have >experienced) > >__X__ Internet-based financial services like Internet stock trading, home >banking, credit card, ... >__X__ Digitalizable Products like CDs, Software, Reservation, ... >__X__ Physical Products like toys, books, flowers, clothes, automobiles, ... >__X__ Others (Software, VCR, Computer equipment, Video tapes, briefcase,) > >Thanks. > >... Changsoo Sohn ... > > >---------------------------------------------------------------- >Changsoo Sohn >Department of Management (MIS) >Southern Illinois University at Carbondale >http://www.cba.siu.edu/changsoo >E-mail: changsoo@siu.edu & cssohn@hotmail.com > > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2000 10:09:09 -0800 From: "Susan Strouse" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Interesting how things change from one person to the next. I have a new stock for our watch list. Check on AMK. Let me know what you think. Thanks for all the other info. Susan - -----Original Message----- From: Catherine M. Wilson To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, April 01, 2000 8:58 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: >Patrick Wahl wrote: > >> I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize >> winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said >> there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech >> stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool >> theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to >> unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may >> be misquoting a bit here. > >I saw the interview, and my perception was that he >was talking about Internet stocks with enormous >valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have >doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. >I think, however, that many people wouldn't have >picked up that he was talking about this particular >group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported >on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, >and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to >generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which >isn't what he was talking about at all. > >Kit > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2000 15:17:32 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Hi Patrick, I'm not sure I can explain the inverted yield, other than by the buyback and retirement of debt by the Fed Govt. This was already going on for some time in terms of smaller auctions, as we finally gained budget surpluses. With the recent decision to purchase existing higher yielding long bonds on the open market, there is a significant overall reduction taking place in long term govt debt in circulation. So I see the inverted yield as a reflection of market demand, and mkt pricing, rather than an indicator of either recession or a slowdown in growth. Short term rates have gone up because of Fed hikes, not inflation, so this also doesn't apply, in my professorial opinion. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Patrick Wahl To: Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 10:56 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Professor Tom, if you are up to it, care to comment on the inverted yield curve? I vaguely remember that it is considered a forerunner of a recession, the idea being something like - we have inflation so short term rates go up, but looking out further, an economic slowdown seems to be in the cards, reducing inflationary pressures, so longer term bonds will have yields under the short term t bills. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2000 15:44:53 -0500 From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: A side not that amuses me. When the yield curve began to become inverted, the talking heads on the box (CNBC, and yes I am ashamed to say I watch it from time to time) were saying it was a no-brainer to buy shorter term and sell longer term. When the yield curve became further inverted, they reported that someone must be trying to squeeze the shorts on the long bond. Hmmm, I wonder why they aren't commenting on their "no-brainer" trade. Sorry, email was kind of pointless, but I do find it amusing how quickly they will change their tune, yet attempt to sound confident and authoritative. Regards Matt - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 3:17 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: > Hi Patrick, > > I'm not sure I can explain the inverted yield, other than by > the buyback and retirement of debt by the Fed Govt. This > was already going on for some time in terms of smaller > auctions, as we finally gained budget surpluses. With the > recent decision to purchase existing higher yielding long > bonds on the open market, there is a significant overall > reduction taking place in long term govt debt in > circulation. So I see the inverted yield as a reflection of > market demand, and mkt pricing, rather than an indicator of > either recession or a slowdown in growth. > > Short term rates have gone up because of Fed hikes, not > inflation, so this also doesn't apply, in my professorial > opinion. > > Tom Worley > > > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2000 15:58:58 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: inverted yield curve There is no accountability from day to day for media airheads. At least if I am wrong, you can remind me. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Matt Robinson To: Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 3:44 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: A side not that amuses me. When the yield curve began to become inverted, the talking heads on the box (CNBC, and yes I am ashamed to say I watch it from time to time) were saying it was a no-brainer to buy shorter term and sell longer term. When the yield curve became further inverted, they reported that someone must be trying to squeeze the shorts on the long bond. Hmmm, I wonder why they aren't commenting on their "no-brainer" trade. Sorry, email was kind of pointless, but I do find it amusing how quickly they will change their tune, yet attempt to sound confident and authoritative. Regards Matt - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 3:17 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: > Hi Patrick, > > I'm not sure I can explain the inverted yield, other than by > the buyback and retirement of debt by the Fed Govt. This > was already going on for some time in terms of smaller > auctions, as we finally gained budget surpluses. With the > recent decision to purchase existing higher yielding long > bonds on the open market, there is a significant overall > reduction taking place in long term govt debt in > circulation. So I see the inverted yield as a reflection of > market demand, and mkt pricing, rather than an indicator of > either recession or a slowdown in growth. > > Short term rates have gone up because of Fed hikes, not > inflation, so this also doesn't apply, in my professorial > opinion. > > Tom Worley > > > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 01 Apr 2000 19:57:33 -0500 From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: inverted yield curve Hi Tom, It goes a step further. The interviews are really the airheads talking to the befuddled. Jeff Cooper at TradingMarkets.com summed it up best for me this weekend: " There is a lesson here for all of us. The business of the market is to humble all who play, until they pay their dues and respect Mr. Market above all. And Mr. Market is a funny guy, kind of like the character Joe Pesci played in the movie "Good Fellas." The market is volatile and emotional. You never know when it's pulling your leg with a bear trap, or when it's in deadly earnest. All the psychoanalysts in the world -- or the market analysts, for that matter -- can't predict its behavior. You just have to respect the essence of its nature and roll with the punches, or you'll end up stranded. There's a parade of "wise guys," like Barton Biggs, who admits that he just doesn't understand what's going on anymore, that the market scares him. Warren Buffet: befuddled. Quantum's Stanley Druckemiller got "taken apart" in the last few weeks -- down 12 percent this month, caught in the biotech crossfire. All this shows the bizarre nature of the current equity environment. As Johnny Carson would say, "There is some weird and wild stuff going on." " As for me I'm still all in cash... waiting. Think I'm going to rent "Good Fellas" again. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Tom Worley wrote: > There is no accountability from day to day for media > airheads. At least if I am wrong, you can remind me. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 01 Apr 2000 22:53:56 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:AMK AMK looks pretty good from a CANSLIM fundie standpoint. It was featured on the Internet and Technology page in Monday's IBD (and maybe that's where you saw it!) Numbers are 95/95/ABB and it's in the Elec-Misc Components group, presently ranked number 13. From a technical standpoint, it's been basing for about 6 weeks since hitting a high in mid-Feb, and has been above the closing low for about 6 days, hence it could be working on the right side of a cup. This is a good one to watch for a possible B/O given another FT day on the NAS. At 10:09 AM 4/1/00 -0800, you wrote: >Interesting how things change from one person to the next. > >I have a new stock for our watch list. Check on AMK. Let me know what you >think. >Thanks for all the other info. > >Susan >-----Original Message----- >From: Catherine M. Wilson >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Saturday, April 01, 2000 8:58 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: > > >>Patrick Wahl wrote: >> >>> I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize >>> winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said >>> there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech >>> stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool >>> theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to >>> unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may >>> be misquoting a bit here. >> >>I saw the interview, and my perception was that he >>was talking about Internet stocks with enormous >>valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have >>doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. >>I think, however, that many people wouldn't have >>picked up that he was talking about this particular >>group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported >>on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, >>and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to >>generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which >>isn't what he was talking about at all. >> >>Kit >> >>- >> >> > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 09:18:56 +0100 From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] GIL Retailers are taking off a bit Take a look at the cup ( 7weeks) and handle (3 days) of GIL (EPS 98, RS 87, ACC/DIST B, IND RS 61, SMR A, FUNDS 19.8%, CAP 450 million. If it breaks out, its RS line might accompany it into new high ground. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 13:35:06 +0200 From: " Makara Tamás" Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on selling short A couple of weeks ago it was questioned whether shorting should be discussed on a CANSLIM list. I 've just reread Schwager's Market Wizards, where WON said: "Short selling of individual stocks should only be considered after the general market shows signs of a top. The best chart pattern to short is one in which a stock breaks out on the upside of its third or fourth base and then fails. The stock should be breaking down toward the low end of its previous base pattern on increased volume. After the first serios price break bellow the base, there will usually be several pullback attempts. The prior base will now provide an area of overhead supply, as all investors who bought in that zone will be losing money, and a number of them will be eager to get out near breakeven. Therefore, pullbacks to failed price bases also provide good timing for short sales." So I think shorting could be discussed here, and came a bear market, I would be happy to read a lot about it. It would be also important to find some fundamental criteria for selecting short candidates. One that came to my mind was to look at stocks whose growth rate is high but decelerating. (Or high and rapidly falling eps rank). Other ideas? And some thougths on the market. We now have two Livermore Pivotal Points: the Nasdaq's high and the recent low bellow 4400. The line of least resistence (or the trend) doesn't reveal itself until the index breaks through decisively one of these levels. We had a failed low volume rally attempt and several days of distribution. These are clear danger signs and I'm fully in cash, yet it may be early to call the bull move dead. Johan, what happened to you? I miss your posts. Tamas - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 08:00:01 -0600 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 08:12:53 -0700 (PDT) From: travis bolster Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Travis Bolster Hello everyone, My name is Travis Bolster and I joining the list today. I am 24 years old and a senior studying finance and economics at Tulane University in New Orleans. I have been reading and following CANSLIM philosophy for 3 years now and have been highly successful. I have searched high and low looking for discussions and chats on the CANSLIM philosophy so was very happy when discovered the program. Looking forward to learning new techniques from members. Sincerely, Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #863 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.