From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #870 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, April 10 2000 Volume 02 : Number 870 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W. Your Ideas on SLR [CANSLIM] 24 lessons vs. HTMMIS [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's latest speech [CANSLIM] Leaders List RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List [CANSLIM] PLMD Breakout? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 9 Apr 2000 10:27:42 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W. Your Ideas on SLR Hi Charlie, A buy on 3/14 or 3/15 was definitely "jumping the gun". It completed a split on 3/9, which often results in short term selling as shareholders sell off their newly received shares. Overall at that point, the stock was in a definite downtrend (lower highs, lower lows). I haven't researched the cause of the gap up on volume, but that was a dangerous point for entry. I am glad it has finally worked out for you so that you have a respectable profit for the risk you took. Be careful of tips, like sexually transmitted diseases, you often don't know the original source. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Charles Dille To: Sent: Sunday, April 09, 2000 9:12 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W. Your Ideas on SLR Thanks for alll of your help. I appreciate your insite on this stock, I jumped the gun on this stock around 3/14 or 15th based on a tip, which I hope turns out OK in the long run. Thanks Charlie - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Friday, April 07, 2000 1:04 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR > Hi Charlie, > > You don't mention when you bot it, whether during its > abbreviated 2+ week trading range base, or on 4/4 as it > appeared to break out on volume. If the latter, I think I > would say it was a reasonable choice, despite the low RS > (it's at 70 now and was even lower on 4/4). Volume ended up > only 1.3X ADV, but still looked strong in an ugly market. > > If you bot during the short base, I would say you were > premature. Throughout that base, and ignoring the fact that > it was short, the RS was falling almost every day, and at > the start of the base was only about 70. Having RS at or > over 80 is important to ensure that the stock is "in favor". > It is very much a "popularity campaign" indicator on a short > term basis. Watching it on a daily basis, you can easily see > the trend short term as well. > > Mkt cap/sales ratio is only about 2.7, so not overvalued > there. Both sales and earnings show consistent and solid > growth, earnings in the 50% range and sales in the 30-40% > range, suggesting some earnings efficiencies. While trailing > PE is high at 66, the far more important forward looking PE > for the current year drops to 55, and for 2001 to about 47, > not much different than the S&P500. > > If I was looking to buy on 4/4, I likely would have waited > until 4/5 when it broke the 45 3/8 level set at the start of > the short base. Volume was also slightly heavier that day. > Today, on a moderate drop, volume was well under ADV. Funds > already own 32% of the stock, while management has too > little at stake for my tastes with only a 1% ownership. > Debt is higher than I like in a rising interest rate > environment at 33%. Because of its low RS, it is a long way > from leadership in its group, tho the group is strong at 93. > > Just some quick thoughts from a disinterested observer. Glad > you're making decisions, and taking actions, and even making > money to boot! What a great country. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Charles Dille > To: Canslim List > Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:28 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR > > > I have been following SLR for about 30 days and am long at > 42 3/16 > > I would like any input from some of the " old hands " here > about this choice > > Thanks, Charlie > > > - > > > > - > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 09 Apr 2000 17:34:28 -0700 From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] 24 lessons vs. HTMMIS Rich, Both overlap significantly. HTMMIS is more in depth and detailed. 24 Lessons is more recent and is available online through http://www.investors.com - -Jim --- Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 21:27:55 -0400 From: "Rich Ralph" Subject: [CANSLIM] HTMMIS or 24 Lessonss? Hi All, I have a friend who is just starting out, and wants to learn before jumping in. I'd like to know the groups opinion on whether I should recommend HTMMIS, or 24 Lessons, (or perhaps both) as the better book to learn CANSLIM? Good Trading, _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| Rich Ralph - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 9 Apr 2000 18:32:59 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's latest speech Just finished reading Mr. G's speech to Congress April 5 on the "new economy". Quite interesting reading, and I recommend it to anyone interested in the US economy, or those watching for future rate hikes. It is also a powerful summary statement on the impact from information technology and, I suspect, a shift on the acceptable level of growth for the future. It may signal the end to rate hikes for now, or at least a "no change" at the May meeting, especially since the Feds like to skip a meeting between rate hikes, and they meet again in June. It can be found at http://www.bog.frb.fed.us./boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000405. htm Some interesting quotes: It has become increasingly difficult to deny that something profoundly different from the typical postwar business cycle has emerged in recent years. Not only has the expansion reached record length, but it has done so with far stronger-than-expected economic growth. Most remarkably, inflation has remained subdued in the face of labor markets tighter than any we have experienced in a generation. I see no reason that productivity growth cannot remain elevated, or even increase further ...an increase in employment beyond the growth of the working-age population is limited to what remains of our shrinking pool of available workers. Although the sum of the unemployed and those not in the labor force but who nonetheless are available for work is still about ten million, the level has been falling steadily...scarcity of labor will almost surely induce a rise in hourly compensation gains that increasingly outpaces an even faster productivity growth--a condition that would cause unit costs to accelerate over time we do not know how long net imports and U.S. external debt can rise before foreign investors become reluctant to continue to add to their portfolios of claims against the United States. At that point, the safety valve of net imports could narrow or close. It is conceivable that these two buffers can continue to absorb an excess growth of demand over potential supply for quite a while longer. The rise in stock prices, as well as in the capital gains on homes, has created a marked increase in purchasing power without providing an equivalent and immediate expansion in the supply of goods and services The persuasive evidence that the wealth effect is contributing to the risk of imbalances in our economy, however, does not imply that the most straightforward way to restore balance in financial and product markets is for monetary policy to target asset price levels one result of the more-rapid pace of information technology innovation has been a visible acceleration of the process of "creative destruction," a shifting of capital from failing technologies into those technologies at the cutting edge In short, information technology raises output per hour in the total economy principally by reducing hours worked on activities needed to guard productive processes against the unknown and the unanticipated. Narrowing the uncertainties reduces the number of hours required to maintain any given level of production readiness. Because knowledge is essentially irreversible, much, if not most, of the recent gains in productivity appear permanent. It appears to be only a matter of time before the Internet becomes a prime venue for the trillions of dollars of business-to-business commerce conducted every year. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 09 Apr 2000 19:52:02 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Here is my latest "Leaders List". This list is assembled by taking stocks in the top 40 Industry Groups (since 1/1) and generating a score for the stocks by combining IBD EPS, RPS, SPR rating, A/D rating, and Sponsorship rank. I try to remove any stocks that are being purchased from the list. The list is the top 100 (or so) stocks by score (in order, highest scores first). I monitor this list for technical signals to buy. This list represents strong stocks that you may want to watch, but they have not been reviewed for technical signals yet, so PLEASE do your own DD before you buy. Note I'm 100% cash right now and waiting for a FT day before any purchases. This list is slightly different from my previous lists in that I haven't included IGP ranking in the formula. I've removed it since I believe we haven't seen where the new leadership will come from. Given that, I've leveled the top 40 groups since 1/1. AMCC MVSN QGENF QCOM CHKP TQNT JDSU QLGC PLMD RFMD PWAV NTAP VTSS ADIC PWR PROX PMCS SDLI AMKR DSPG XLTC ZOMX DY PLXT XETA TLGD ANEN ADCT SILI VSAT DIIG CPN SNDK RMD ZOLL CREE BBRC FLEX INTI SMTC XLNX ELNT AMK AFCI ADI APCC VOXX PSEM TECH TNL WFII MCRL ALTR MCHP SBL WAT PWER SFA SAWS MKSI TKLC DRAM AMAT MWD RSYS LTRE GLW CMVT SCI OCCF MDCC AUDC ARMHY MXIM SSTI ADTN DITC NEWP SANM DIO CBXC GILTF JBL LXK ADRX NANO VECO GICOF CGNX INFS HAUP KEI TER IVGN EXAC CHP DYN ISSX ESIO CTS NT ORBK - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 9 Apr 2000 22:29:41 -0500 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List Thanks for the list. Would you explain the meaning of the B1,B2,B3, etc indicates - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, April 08, 2000 10:03 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List The short list makes my review easy. I have tried to compensate for the record volatility of the past week in this. Overall, only 71 survived the criteria of the basic list (RS and EPS over 80; at or within 5% of the 12 month high). Last week there were 100 candidates, week prior 86, and week before that 129, so we are definitely seeing some consolidation. But my sense is that many other stocks are still close to their highs, and ready to set new ones, given the right "M". As always, Bx = Base (x = nr of weeks) AMCC - correction on light vol, initial recovery on strong volume, 99/99/A/A/A/A, worth watching PLMD - B2 AMK - cup formed? ANEN - impressive, talk about stocks "holding up"!, probably too late to buy except for day traders HOTT - B1 XLNX - locked in a trading range XLTC - B2 CGII - showing a nice compact LLUR short term pattern APCC - B3 SCI - B2 LTRE - B2 TWP - B2 ASF - B6?? DIO - B2 SGR - B2 PCCC - possible cup, impressive performance in a bad week, low PE CDWC - B1 HH - B4+ DYN - B5 SANM - B3 USTR - B2 FII - smooth chart MXIM - B3 WDR - B1+ CTEA - B1 SHP - B2+ KP - B1+ MOLXA B4+ CBM B2 Happy hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 10 Apr 2000 05:00:33 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List B is my shorthand for a base, where the number indicates the nr of weeks I read the chart as forming the current base. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: John Adair To: Sent: Sunday, April 09, 2000 11:29 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List Thanks for the list. Would you explain the meaning of the B1,B2,B3, etc indicates - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, April 08, 2000 10:03 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List The short list makes my review easy. I have tried to compensate for the record volatility of the past week in this. Overall, only 71 survived the criteria of the basic list (RS and EPS over 80; at or within 5% of the 12 month high). Last week there were 100 candidates, week prior 86, and week before that 129, so we are definitely seeing some consolidation. But my sense is that many other stocks are still close to their highs, and ready to set new ones, given the right "M". As always, Bx = Base (x = nr of weeks) AMCC - correction on light vol, initial recovery on strong volume, 99/99/A/A/A/A, worth watching PLMD - B2 AMK - cup formed? ANEN - impressive, talk about stocks "holding up"!, probably too late to buy except for day traders HOTT - B1 XLNX - locked in a trading range XLTC - B2 CGII - showing a nice compact LLUR short term pattern APCC - B3 SCI - B2 LTRE - B2 TWP - B2 ASF - B6?? DIO - B2 SGR - B2 PCCC - possible cup, impressive performance in a bad week, low PE CDWC - B1 HH - B4+ DYN - B5 SANM - B3 USTR - B2 FII - smooth chart MXIM - B3 WDR - B1+ CTEA - B1 SHP - B2+ KP - B1+ MOLXA B4+ CBM B2 Happy hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 10 Apr 2000 07:55:05 -0700 (PDT) From: travis bolster Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD Breakout? PLMD is up 5 today to 60 on heavy volume(been as high as 62). Anyone belive this might be a breakout? Thanks, Travis __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! 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