From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #923 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, June 14 2000 Volume 02 : Number 923 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable [CANSLIM] Re: Stocks breaking out but still reasonable RE: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable [CANSLIM] What the market has already done Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? [CANSLIM] STJ Re: [CANSLIM] STJ Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable Re: [CANSLIM] back to investing Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable Re: [CANSLIM] back to investing Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Re: [CANSLIM] STJ RE: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? Re: [CANSLIM] EMC - "tripple" bottom? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 17:30:45 +0200 From: Tom Gumpel Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] I don't see how this could be a problem and scare anyone, if you set your stops well enough (see my previous post, today). Just set the stop and let nature take its course. At 10:18 AM 14/6/00 -0700, han.26@osu.edu wrote: >Earl Setser wrote: >... > >-Jim wrote: > > > >P.S. My E trade [fake] game portfolio is up 13% in under a week largely > >because of KEI [Keithley Instruments]. > >I hope one of you were fortunate enough to latch onto this a few weeks ago >or earlier [up over 50% in a few days > >off of a decent cup w/ handle--way extended now though]. > > > > >Earl Setser wrote: > > >This one (KEI) is SCARING ME TO DEATH!! I grabbed it Friday a week ago and > >I'm showing an 88% gain!! I certainly have never seen this kind of gain > >this fast on any stock ever!! I put in a stop at 60% gain earlier today, > >but I'm thinking of cinching it up a bit. > > >Does anyone think the action is a "climax top" or what? I'm gonna look > >through the chart tonight and see where I think my hard stop should be. > >Good luck all. (I am 100% invested now.) > >Earl, >I agree w/ your fear. I've owned a couple stocks that shot up like a >climax blow off top just after breaking out >from a nice base [THQI and DSPG]. Although WON says to hold on at least 8 >weeks to such rapid advancers, I believe >this is much riskier NOW given the current market conditions [I still >think we're merely in the large countertrend >bounce WITHIN a long overdue bear] than if it happened at the BEGINNING of >a NEW bull run. I'm just not convinced >we're in a whole new bull yet. > >In the case of both of these stocks I was well served by taking my profits >during these climaxes. Neither have >returned to their lofty heights, and THQI might never recover (it dropped >off shortly after I sold near its top). >HTMMIS has so many "when to sell" selling pointers that it seems almost >ANY time can be justified under CANSLIM >rules, depending on how you interpret them. It would be nauseating to >either hold on and watch your profit slip >away, OR sell and watch it continue to skyrocket, but having felt both, >I'd rather have a conservative profit than >the other way around. > >Just my opinion, >-Jim > > >- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Tom Gumpel Department of Special Education 972-2-588-2165 School of Education Fax: 972-2-588-2045 The Hebrew University of Jerusalem in US: 877-258-9406 Jerusalem, ISRAEL 91905 http://pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il/~msgumpel/main.htm VISUALIZE WHIRLED PEAS! - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 08:34:09 -0700 From: Eric Shen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Earl Setser wrote: >This one (KEI) is SCARING ME TO DEATH!! I grabbed it Friday a week ago and >I'm showing an 88% gain!! I certainly have never seen this kind of gain >this fast on any stock ever!! I put in a stop at 60% gain earlier today, >but I'm thinking of cinching it up a bit. >Does anyone think the action is a "climax top" or what? I'm gonna look >through the chart tonight and see where I think my hard stop should be. >Good luck all. (I am 100% invested now.) You might want to check today's IBD. In the investor's corner section, they mention stocks that have a quick run-up. KEI was mentioned. The article recommends holding the position for 8 weeks to take advantage of any subsequent run-up. This was a surprise to me since I also would tend to believe it would be a climatic top. Eric - - - -- - -------------------------------------------------------------- Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 / / / Level One Communications email: eshen@level1.com | | |_/ an Intel company Tel: (916) 855 5177 | |___/ 9750 Goethe Road ext: 4497 |_____/ Sacramento, CA 95827 - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 10:32:56 -0500 From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Earl I am notching my stops at least twice a day. I am also concerned about a climax, so I am setting very tight, to intraday support. After this years losses, I don't want to let this one get away. I will buy back in on the dip. Kent han.26@osu.edu wrote: > > Earl Setser wrote: > ... > >-Jim wrote: > > > >P.S. My E trade [fake] game portfolio is up 13% in under a week largely > >because of KEI [Keithley Instruments]. > >I hope one of you were fortunate enough to latch onto this a few weeks ago > or earlier [up over 50% in a few days > >off of a decent cup w/ handle--way extended now though]. > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 09:45:48 -0700 From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Hi Earl, It seems to me that WON would not consider this a climax top...he considers a climax top for sale if it occurs "after many months of advance" or when the stock was fairly extended from the base and then the climax action occurs. Just recently I read in IBD that if a stock jumps ( like KEI is doing) out of a proper base, you should hold on as this could be an exceptionally strong stock. That being said, I personally would be watching this very closely for any sign of topping...it is not to often you can nail down a quick 88% profit. I tried to pick up KEI last Friday...but I got a little too cute for my own good. The stock was trading at 49 3/8 and I decided I could save a little...soo I put in a buy limit for 1000 at 49 1/4...never got it and the stock closed that day at 49 15/16...the rest is history...a valuable lesson for me that I'm sharing with the rest of the group. My last B/O buy was at market. Regards, Ziggy Eric Shen wrote: > Earl Setser wrote: > > >This one (KEI) is SCARING ME TO DEATH!! I grabbed it Friday a week ago and > >I'm showing an 88% gain!! I certainly have never seen this kind of gain > >this fast on any stock ever!! I put in a stop at 60% gain earlier today, > >but I'm thinking of cinching it up a bit. > > >Does anyone think the action is a "climax top" or what? I'm gonna look > >through the chart tonight and see where I think my hard stop should be. > >Good luck all. (I am 100% invested now.) > > You might want to check today's IBD. In the investor's corner > section, they mention stocks that have a quick run-up. KEI > was mentioned. The article recommends holding the position > for 8 weeks to take advantage of any subsequent run-up. > > This was a surprise to me since I also would tend to believe > it would be a climatic top. > > Eric > > - > > -- > -------------------------------------------------------------- > Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 / / / Level One Communications > email: eshen@level1.com | | |_/ an Intel company > Tel: (916) 855 5177 | |___/ 9750 Goethe Road > ext: 4497 |_____/ Sacramento, CA 95827 > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 11:08:06 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable PCS: already over avg volume NUHC: really blasting through with volume but still catachable Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 14:49:52 -0400 (EDT) From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Stocks breaking out but still reasonable I would have a little problem with NUHC from the CANSLIM standpoint since its yearly EPS has been declining until last year... I am not sure what EPS rank this has earned it (I think I considered it a leader), but I would consider this EPS deceleration. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 15:03:54 -0400 From: Rocky Sanghvi Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable I have a question for all CANSLIM followers. I have always beleived that one of the most powerful things that WON has said goes something like this: "Forget about what the market will do tomorrow or in the future. Focus on what the market has already done." Can we start a brief discussion on this? What has the market already done as a predictor of the what the market are going to do? I have seen utilities and financials convincingly hit bottoms. I see healthcare and certain technology stocks doing fairly well. We have also seen a convincing follow through twice in the recent past. Is this a good time to be investing? Best Regards Rakesh - -----Original Message----- From: Pritish Shah [mailto:prishah@cisco.com] Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 2:08 PM To: canslim@xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable PCS: already over avg volume NUHC: really blasting through with volume but still catachable Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 15:44:53 -0400 From: "david lawson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? In my opinion the top of the right side of the cup was 100 on 5/18. Making the pivot point 100.125. Breakout was on 6/1. Ari - ----------------------------------------------------- - ----- Original Message ----- From: Pritish Shah To: canslim list Sent: Tuesday, June 13, 2000 2:11 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? > Ok here is a question for you. > > What would you consider the pivot point. > > On march 7th (start of the cup), the o/c/h/l was 109/103.5/113/103 > Today WAT is 112.875 currently. > > Is the pivot point 109 or is the pivot point 113? > > > Regards, > Shah > 408-525-4263 > > > On Tue, 13 Jun 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > > WAT (IBD #'s 96 91 AAB) looks like it is breaking out of a > > cup and handle pattern on volume that at least as of now is > > running about + 50% ahead of ADV. > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > - > > > > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 13:18:16 -0700 From: Eric Shen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable Rocky Sanghvi wrote: > > I have a question for all CANSLIM followers. I have always beleived that > one of the most powerful things that WON has said goes something like this: > > "Forget about what the market will do tomorrow or in the future. Focus on > what the market has already done." > > Can we start a brief discussion on this? What has the market already done > as a predictor of the what the market are going to do? I have seen > utilities and financials convincingly hit bottoms. I see healthcare and > certain technology stocks doing fairly well. We have also seen a convincing > follow through twice in the recent past. Is this a good time to be > investing? > > Best Regards > Rakesh > The problem with bottom fishing is the amount of overhead supply waiting when the stock moves back up. For example, take EGRP. It's at 16 5/8. There is resistance at 20, 22, 25, 28, 32. There is a lot of levels where people would want to sell before the stock can move higher. I like looking for stocks have moved up. The shareholders are happy and less likely to dump when the price rises. Eric - -- - -------------------------------------------------------------- Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 / / / Level One Communications email: eshen@level1.com | | |_/ an Intel company Tel: (916) 855 5177 | |___/ 9750 Goethe Road ext: 4497 |_____/ Sacramento, CA 95827 - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 13:35:01 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: [CANSLIM] What the market has already done Rocky, Looking at QQQ chart for the last month, here is the info On May 24th: first rally on above average volume On May 30th: follow through 2 days later on above average volume On June 2nd: follow through 6 days later on above average volume From June 2nd to June 14th, churning (where new leaders are established) Few good stocks broke out. Eg: KEI and others This is what the market has done. Is this a new bull market: I do not know because we did not see the climax selling. What we did see was complacency and that is bad. CNBC interviews the money managers. They feel that the market is doing a little summer rally but will go down after the rally. Why is it important what these moneymanagers think -- well they work for the institutions that create the market moves. If they all sell together, the market goes down. If they all buy together -- the market goes up. What does that mean: BE DICIPLINED AND CUT LOSSES AFTER 8% otherwise follow the stock through its rise. Once the stock rises, make sure that the stock is in its trend channel. If it breaks the upward trend channel, sell stock and get out. Hope that helps... Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Wed, 14 Jun 2000, Rocky Sanghvi wrote: > I have a question for all CANSLIM followers. I have always beleived that > one of the most powerful things that WON has said goes something like this: > > "Forget about what the market will do tomorrow or in the future. Focus on > what the market has already done." > > Can we start a brief discussion on this? What has the market already done > as a predictor of the what the market are going to do? I have seen > utilities and financials convincingly hit bottoms. I see healthcare and > certain technology stocks doing fairly well. We have also seen a convincing > follow through twice in the recent past. Is this a good time to be > investing? > > Best Regards > Rakesh > > -----Original Message----- > From: Pritish Shah [mailto:prishah@cisco.com] > Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 2:08 PM > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable > > > > PCS: already over avg volume > NUHC: really blasting through with volume but still catachable > > > Regards, > Shah > 408-525-4263 > > > > - > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 14:26:04 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? Yep depends upon your prespective but generally, larger formations are taken into account (if you can find one). In this case, there was a larger formation. Ofcourse, you can use your own variations with the smaller formations and that is why sometimes it is good to look at 2 month high or 3 month high. Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Wed, 14 Jun 2000, david lawson wrote: > In my opinion the top of the right side of the cup was 100 on 5/18. Making > the pivot point 100.125. Breakout was on 6/1. > > Ari > ----------------------------------------------------- > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Pritish Shah > To: canslim list > Sent: Tuesday, June 13, 2000 2:11 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? > > > > Ok here is a question for you. > > > > What would you consider the pivot point. > > > > On march 7th (start of the cup), the o/c/h/l was 109/103.5/113/103 > > Today WAT is 112.875 currently. > > > > Is the pivot point 109 or is the pivot point 113? > > > > > > Regards, > > Shah > > 408-525-4263 > > > > > > On Tue, 13 Jun 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > > > > WAT (IBD #'s 96 91 AAB) looks like it is breaking out of a > > > cup and handle pattern on volume that at least as of now is > > > running about + 50% ahead of ADV. > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 19:45:09 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: [CANSLIM] STJ Is STJ too extended to buy? Anna Sosis - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 16:35:40 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] STJ It is about 30% from its breakout -- anything beyond 15% of breakout is considered extended. Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Wed, 14 Jun 2000 asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > > > Is STJ too extended to buy? > > Anna Sosis > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 17:18:28 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? I looked at yahoo for average volume I also looked at the weekly average and also the tendency of the stock's volume when it rises. I noticed that generally when it rises dramatically, it is usually on a volume of 5 million or higher. I kind of figure out in my mind what the average volume should look like. Why do I do that, I feel it has served me better than doing it mathematically. GLW: ==== Week of Open High Low Close Volume Adj. Close* 12-Jun-00 229.875 245.625 223 237 3,914,300 237 5-Jun-00 205.50 217 205.125 212 1,889,900 212 29-May-00 177 210.437 175.562 208.875 2,860,100 208.875 22-May-00 182.562 183.50 165.875 168 1,975,000 167.843 15-May-00 186 191.125 179.25 182.4375 1,806,400 182.267 8-May-00 186.50 194.937 182.50 187.7188 1,999,800 187.544 1-May-00 196 200.75 180.625 189.0625 1,799,700 188.886 24-Apr-00 148 201 146.437 197.50 2,430,000 197.316 Someone said 50 day moving average should be calculated. Can someone guess what is the average volume? It looks to me like it is close to 2 million/day. Ok now this week GLW broke out correct? YES -- I do not know what I was smoking :) I guess it must have been intraday data and that probably confused me. However for ADI, I stand by my statements. I would not buy it. Hope that helps and btw thanks for correcting me :) Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Tue, 13 Jun 2000, Earl Setser wrote: > At 04:59 PM 6/13/00 -0700, you wrote: > > What are you looking for on volume? I have both ADI and GLW breaking out > on 1.5 X ADV. IBD has been saying to look for at least 1.4 to 1.5. Are > you looking for more? > > >ADI: breakout on normal volume -- bad > > I put the B/O on 6/8 with over 4 M shares traded, 49% over latest 50 day ADV. > > >GLW: breakout on normal volume -- bad > > I put the B/O yesterday on over 4.5 M shares, 53% over lastest 50 day ADV. > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 17:21:17 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? One suggestion lynn, I notice that you are doing 1000 shares of everything. If I were in your place, I would same dollar amount for every trade. The reason for 8% loss is the assumption that your trades are all of equal amount (not size) and one loss of 8% will be overriden by another gain of 8%. Hope that helps Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Tue, 13 Jun 2000, lynn williams wrote: > I bought AMCC in Sept of 1999 for 27.50 and then again in Nov for 44... so I > still have a great return despite this past week.. however, I am gonna sell > it all.. all 1870 shares...thanks hugh... > I agree on the volume on ADI being low but not the volume on GLW on the > breakout... So am not going to buy ADI because the volume was low on the > breakout...NOK would be good but I already own 1,000 shares....as well > ADCT....ditto a 1,000 shares of SDLI.. only have 55 shares of GLW > though.....problem is that I am going to be out of the country with no phone > beginning Thursday and I am trying to realign my portfolios prior to > leaving.. any other suggestions??? > Lynn :) > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Hugh Fader" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, June 13, 2000 10:02 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? > > > > Pritish, > > > > I disagree on ADI and GLW. ADI broke out on 52% above average volume on > 6/8. > > GLW broke out on 57% above average volume on 6/12. I bought both. GLW is > now > > over-extended, but ADI has pulled back a bit and is still buyable. > > > > I bought SDLI on its pullback, but it is now also is over-extended. > > > > - Hugh > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Pritish Shah > > Sent: Tuesday, June 13, 2000 7:59 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? > > > > > > > > ADI: breakout on normal volume -- bad > > GLW: breakout on normal volume -- bad > > ANEN: breakout on heavy volume and went down today on heavy volume -- bad > > SGR: LLUR but it is a bit extended. However so far the best stock. > > SDLI: strong volume breakout out of 13week base. > > ADCT: Nice LLUR but it think it might be a bit overextended > > NOK: Would wait for a handle to form. Looks good even if a handle does not > > form > > PLXS: Overextended but good LLUR > > PWER: overextended but good LLUR > > SEBL: forming right side of a cup > > ORCL: either double bottom or forming a cup > > > > Of all the stocks listed, probably SDLI/NOK/ORCL/SEBL would probably be > > good. > > > > AMCC: well it looks really under heavy distribution. I would sell it. If > > you have already taken out profit from it, then hang on. > > > > Regards, > > Shah > > 408-525-4263 > > > > > > On Tue, 13 Jun 2000, lynn williams wrote: > > > > > Can someone please tell me if you were to choose between buying ADI, > GLW, > > > ANEN, SGR, SDLI, ADCT, NOK, PLXS, PWER, SEBL, or ORCL, which one would > you > > > buy tomorrow? > > > Thanks so much all :) > > > Lynn > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: > > > To: > > > Sent: Tuesday, June 13, 2000 6:44 PM > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? > > > > > > > > > > Hi Shah, > > > > > > > > WON uses the 50 day average volume which in the case of WAT is > > > 383,800...today's > > > > volume of 585,300 is 1.52 x ADVor +52% ADV. > > > > > > > > XLNX (IBD #'s 94 95 AAA) had a price B/O today to hit a new 52 week > > > high...however > > > > volume wasn't > > > > there...was less than ADV. May be worth watching tomorrow to see if > > > volume comes > > > > in. > > > > > > > > Regards, > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > Pritish Shah wrote: > > > > > > > > > I do not know much but I do not think we are seeing a substantial > > > breakout > > > > > today (as far as volume is concerned). We should see around > > > 1.5xWeekly_Avg > > > > > or more. > > > > > > > > > > Last week it averaged around 400k/day this week, it is about 450k > this > > > > > week and thus not a breakout volume. > > > > > > > > > > I am being defensive at the present moment because of the market and > > am > > > > > falling back on weekly (rather than daily) charts. > > > > > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > Shah > > > > > 408-525-4263 > > > > > > > > > > On Tue, 13 Jun 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > I calculate the pivot point to be 109 7/8...1/8 higher than the > > handle > > > high of > > > > > > 109 3/4. > > > > > > > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > > > > > asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > IMHO the proper pivot is 109.75 (as per TA that I have read), > > which > > > is the > > > > > > > top of the handle, HOWEVER, just to be on the safe side you may > > want > > > to > > > > > > > wait untill 113 is cleared, since it may prove to be resistance. > > I > > > am > > > > > > > quite interested in what others have to say about it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Btw, few weeks ago I purchased a stock in similar situtation > > > > > > > using 109.75 as pivot just to see it bounce down from the 52 > weeks > > > high > > > > > > > resistance of 113 (I am using WAT's numbers to illustrate). Now > I > > > try to > > > > > > > use 52 weeks high as a pivot, especially if it happened > recently. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Anna > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Pritish Shah on 06/13/2000 02:11:56 PM > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: canslim list > > > > > > > cc: > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Ok here is a question for you. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What would you consider the pivot point. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On march 7th (start of the cup), the o/c/h/l was > 109/103.5/113/103 > > > > > > > Today WAT is 112.875 currently. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Is the pivot point 109 or is the pivot point 113? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > > > Shah > > > > > > > 408-525-4263 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Tue, 13 Jun 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > WAT (IBD #'s 96 91 AAB) looks like it is breaking out of a > > > > > > > > cup and handle pattern on volume that at least as of now is > > > > > > > > running about + 50% ahead of ADV. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 17:32:50 -0700 From: "Joseph Weisfish" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable PCS does not fall into CANSLIM criteria look at the quarter over quarter earnings NUHC: I don't understand why DGO shows it with a -4% growth rate, can this be a mistake? - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pritish Shah" To: Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 11:08 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable > > PCS: already over avg volume > NUHC: really blasting through with volume but still catachable > > > Regards, > Shah > 408-525-4263 > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 17:32:50 -0700 From: "Joseph Weisfish" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable PCS does not fall into CANSLIM criteria look at the quarter over quarter earnings NUHC: I don't understand why DGO shows it with a -4% growth rate, can this be a mistake? - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pritish Shah" To: Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 11:08 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable > > PCS: already over avg volume > NUHC: really blasting through with volume but still catachable > > > Regards, > Shah > 408-525-4263 > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 17:29:15 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] back to investing Another way of doing it is as follows If you make 100% profit, sell half of it and keep the rest for a guranteed profit (nitpickers please do not respond - :) ) This assumes that you are a trader and not an investor. If you are an investor, then the method below is good but another method is to average up. I liken canslim with trading and not investing. Correct me if I am wrong. Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Wed, 14 Jun 2000, Tom Gumpel wrote: > At 08:20 PM 13/6/00 -0600, Earl Setser wrote: > >Where did you buy AMCC?? I bought it in April but was promptly chased out > >as the NAS rally failed. You should ALWAYS limit your losses to no more > >than 7-8% according to WON. If you are profiting, then there are many > >rules to consider. I count 4 distribution days in the last 6 days, and I > >wouldn't want to hold a stock with that action. However, when and where > >(and why if it wasn't a CANSLIM Breakout) you bought it is a key factor. > > I would disagree with WON in his strategy for taking profits. Weinstein has > a much more accessible strategy which includes defensively winching up > stops as the stock continues on a stage 2 climb, but then allows you to > stop out easily. > > This has allowed me 95 - 100% on PCCC and TLGD. If I had followed WON, I'd > be out much, much sooner. > =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= > Tom Gumpel > Department of Special Education 972-2-588-2165 > School of Education Fax: 972-2-588-2045 > The Hebrew University of Jerusalem in US: 877-258-9406 > Jerusalem, ISRAEL 91905 > http://pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il/~msgumpel/main.htm > VISUALIZE WHIRLED PEAS! > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 17:48:33 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable Sure it does, it follows under the N and it has quarter over quarter growth in subscribers and revenue. I do not know if that counts. DISCLAIMER (A BIG ONE) -- I work for sprint ;) Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Wed, 14 Jun 2000, Joseph Weisfish wrote: > PCS does not fall into CANSLIM criteria look at the quarter over quarter > earnings > > NUHC: I don't understand why DGO shows it with a -4% growth rate, can > this be a mistake? > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Pritish Shah" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 11:08 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable > > > > > > PCS: already over avg volume > > NUHC: really blasting through with volume but still catachable > > > > > > Regards, > > Shah > > 408-525-4263 > > > > > > > > - > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 21:18:30 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] back to investing Tom, can you explain what mean by last RL? Would you be able to give a numeric example using PCCC and/or ELNT? Thank you Anna Sosis Tom Gumpel on 06/14/2000 11:28:15 AM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] back to investing Tim, My strategy (taken from Weinstein) may not be yours. I'm hesitant to describe it, since everyone has different time frames, different levels of risk they are willing to tolerate, and different long term/short term/intermediate term needs. It also depends if you consider yourself a trader or an investor. I'm a bit of both, depending on the stock's price trajectory and levels of support and resistance. You should look at a chart with a 50 MA and a 200 MA. Also, if you can draw a trendline connecting at least 3 lows. If you are a trader, look at the trendline, and look at the last reaction low, and take a stop below the last RL, below a whole or half number. If you are an intermediate term investor, do the same for the 50 MA, likewise under the 200 MA for the longer term person. In such fun days, I adjust my stops every few days. There is absolutely no reason why you can't mix and match. For instance, for PCCC, I have .5 of my position under the trendline LRL and the other .5 under the 50 MA. As of today, I've followed my PCCC up 85.2% and my TLGD up 56.2%. I feel safe since my stops are defensive (stop at market, gtc) and I don't have to worry about getting whipsawed. If I would have followed WON, I'd be out at about 20% each. At 07:10 AM 14/6/00 -0700, Tim Fisher wrote: >Let's hear it, I'm all ears. Need to protect my AMD and PLXS profits now & >don't want to set a stop at my buy price since I'm only 20-30% up on those. > >At 04:17 PM 6/14/00 +0200, you wrote: >>At 08:20 PM 13/6/00 -0600, Earl Setser wrote: >>>Where did you buy AMCC?? I bought it in April but was promptly chased out >>>as the NAS rally failed. You should ALWAYS limit your losses to no more >>>than 7-8% according to WON. If you are profiting, then there are many >>>rules to consider. I count 4 distribution days in the last 6 days, and I >>>wouldn't want to hold a stock with that action. However, when and where >>>(and why if it wasn't a CANSLIM Breakout) you bought it is a key factor. >> >>I would disagree with WON in his strategy for taking profits. Weinstein has >>a much more accessible strategy which includes defensively winching up >>stops as the stock continues on a stage 2 climb, but then allows you to >>stop out easily. >> >>This has allowed me 95 - 100% on PCCC and TLGD. If I had followed WON, I'd >>be out much, much sooner. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Tom Gumpel Department of Special Education 972-2-588-2165 School of Education Fax: 972-2-588-2045 The Hebrew University of Jerusalem in US: 877-258-9406 Jerusalem, ISRAEL 91905 http://pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il/~msgumpel/main.htm VISUALIZE WHIRLED PEAS! - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 19:56:18 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KEI [Keithley Instruments] Thanks to all that responded. I decided to use a 15% trailing stop based on closing prices. This is my personal compromise between a tight stop and trying to stay in for 8 weeks. I was tempted to take profit on half my position when I saw my gain at 100% this morning, but I paused, and the stock corrected the rest of the day. Only time will tell what is the best approach on this one. BTW, I was also tempted to take profits when I was up 33% after one day. I'm glad I decided to stick with it from there!!! Of course, I'll also watch M along with the technicals and volume on the stock. I wish I felt as good about selling as I do about buying!! Good luck all. At 10:32 AM 6/14/00 -0500, you wrote: > >Earl > >I am notching my stops at least twice a day. I am also concerned about a >climax, so I am setting very tight, to intraday support. After this >years losses, I don't want to let this one get away. I will buy back in >on the dip. > >Kent > >han.26@osu.edu wrote: >> >> Earl Setser wrote: >> ... >> >-Jim wrote: >> > >> >P.S. My E trade [fake] game portfolio is up 13% in under a week largely >> >because of KEI [Keithley Instruments]. >> >I hope one of you were fortunate enough to latch onto this a few weeks ago >> or earlier [up over 50% in a few days >> >off of a decent cup w/ handle--way extended now though]. >> > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 20:04:10 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] STJ WON suggests that chasing any stock more than 5% from the pivot is a bad idea. I think the idea is many (60% I think) stocks will pause and test the B/O. If you buy say 10% above the pivot, this normal action will trip you out of your -8% sell point. In my year of experience, I have learned the hard way to follow both of these lessons. Given the 5% rule, I make the pivot of STJ at about 38 based on a cup w handle (note this is an eyeball estimate, but the pivot should be 1/8 above the high of the handle). That would set your maximum price at 39.9. My advice would be don't chase this one above that price (more or less). I have had some good success at catching stocks coming back down a few days later to within my 5% limit. In fact, my best CANSLIM buy so far (QLGC) was bought with a limit order that filled on a small dip. I held that one for several months and profited something like 150%. At 07:45 PM 6/14/00 -0400, you wrote: > > >Is STJ too extended to buy? > >Anna Sosis > > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 20:07:38 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable I agree that the market (at least the NASDAQ) has told us to get back in. I've picked up a few positions each week, and I'm now 100% invested. This market could turn at any time, but with good action on a few stocks (KEI!!), I should profit from this go-around even if it starts back down tomorrow. At 03:03 PM 6/14/00 -0400, you wrote: >I have a question for all CANSLIM followers. I have always beleived that >one of the most powerful things that WON has said goes something like this: > >"Forget about what the market will do tomorrow or in the future. Focus on >what the market has already done." > >Can we start a brief discussion on this? What has the market already done >as a predictor of the what the market are going to do? I have seen >utilities and financials convincingly hit bottoms. I see healthcare and >certain technology stocks doing fairly well. We have also seen a convincing >follow through twice in the recent past. Is this a good time to be >investing? > >Best Regards >Rakesh > >-----Original Message----- >From: Pritish Shah [mailto:prishah@cisco.com] >Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 2:08 PM >To: canslim@xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable > > > >PCS: already over avg volume >NUHC: really blasting through with volume but still catachable > > >Regards, >Shah >408-525-4263 > > > >- > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 20:11:00 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? I watched this one with a later handle and called the pivot 110, for a B/O yesterday. I guess I thought the lower handle was too low to be considered a cup w handle. WON looks for the handle at least 50% from the low. Just eyeballing this one at Clearstation, it's not an easy read on where that lower handle was. At 03:44 PM 6/14/00 -0400, you wrote: >In my opinion the top of the right side of the cup was 100 on 5/18. Making >the pivot point 100.125. Breakout was on 6/1. > > Ari >----------------------------------------------------- > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Pritish Shah >To: canslim list >Sent: Tuesday, June 13, 2000 2:11 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAT B/O? > > >> Ok here is a question for you. >> >> What would you consider the pivot point. >> >> On march 7th (start of the cup), the o/c/h/l was 109/103.5/113/103 >> Today WAT is 112.875 currently. >> >> Is the pivot point 109 or is the pivot point 113? >> >> >> Regards, >> Shah >> 408-525-4263 >> >> >> On Tue, 13 Jun 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: >> >> > WAT (IBD #'s 96 91 AAB) looks like it is breaking out of a >> > cup and handle pattern on volume that at least as of now is >> > running about + 50% ahead of ADV. >> > >> > Ziggy >> > >> > >> > - >> > >> > >> >> >> - >> > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2000 23:25:47 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EMC - "tripple" bottom? Hey Tim, that's ok, I tread on my own toes all the time! I definitely don't think my love and obsession for micro and small caps is anything anyone else should try at home (or at work or on their laptop or even with, actually especially with, a full service broker, they know even less than I do). Owning a stock that doesn't trade for several days, and where the spread is obscene, and you must schedule an appointment on a nearby street corner just to trade a few shares, is definitely not the right road for almost every investor. But then, I found an interesting one trading with a PE of 3 (that's right, three) which has increasing sales of 30% or better for over 4 qtrs, and earnings growth for the same period of over 100%. Year high PE is only 16, but that's still room for a five bagger. Gotta find what's wrong with it, there has to be something wrong to trade so low with a nice chart, maybe Mafia owned or something subtle? Maybe the 700,000 shares in the float and the ADV of 1,000. Love the challenge of micros. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: ; Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 10:09 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EMC - "tripple" bottom? Big cap breakouts are here to stay. Why? Liquidity provided by the net. Get out of the 1986 HTMMIS rut where institutions were the only players & into the new age where us geeks are the buying force for a breakout. Capitalization is only relevant to mutual fund geeks with their proprietary screens. I no longer consider capitalization except I don't want to tread on Tom's toes so I set a 15M minimum. - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #923 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.